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Cold in Las Vegas
58

Cold in Las Vegas

by The MoleJanuary 7, 2010

Actually it’s quite balmy here – wonderful sunny Las Vegas winter day actually. I arrived in Vegas last night all bright eyed and bushy tailed – ready to kick ass after months of preparation. Ony to wake up this morning with quite a nasty cold – no idea how that happened. Maybe getting three lap dances by that coughing stripper with the D-cups was a bad idea. Anyway, I decided to stay in my hotel room for a day and to just rest it out – hopefully I’m back to normal tomorrow.

As I’m completely useless today I might as well put a quick chart for you poor Mole deprived stainless steel rats. The market is doing its best to instill a sense of hopelessness in anyone crazy enough to even look at a put option chain but behind the scenes there are signs of a looming reversal:

You’ve seen this chart before and it usually has treated us very well – here are the correlations painted on the chart I have available outside my evil den of doom:

As you can see – readings over 230 are ‘eventually’ followed by a retracement but the real magic happens after readings above 240. And especially in irrationally exuberant tape like this you better make sure you have the odds on your side before even thinking to go against the trend. Which has remained to the upside – no matter what anyone thinks it should be doing.

That’s pretty much all I have in me – and not being able to see the 20 screens with various charts deep down in the murky depths of my evil lair it’s all I feel comfortable sharing. But I wanted to put it on your radar – keep checking that ISEE equities only reading. If it pushes above 240 then start looking for some overbought issues then wait a few days. If nothing happens after about 5-6 trading days then cut your losses and always make sure you employ sound capital committment guidelines plus set reasonable stops (not that it helps much in ramp & camp tape like this). And don’t go crazy either – just take out a few positions and see what happens – if you’re bullish then maybe at least hedge yourself until you can be sure it’s a false alarm.

Again, I will be back next Monday – can’t promise I’ll be jumping head in first right away (need to catch up quite a bit) but you’ll definitely feel my presence again 😉

Before I run – I have a little sin to confess: After my announcement of Rammstein I was so busy preparing for Vegas that I simply didn’t have the time to implement the notification module. So – no, nobody (but me) is getting alerts. But have no worries – the testing period will be quite extensive and you’ll all be able to resubscribe for free at least twice if your current one runs out.

Cheers,

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Coughing D cups – nice band name!

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I should have told her to grind me facing backward 😉

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    What's the symbol to track the ISEE?

    I think you might see your trigger if we gap-up tomorow on the jobs report.
    Personally looking to sell into that if that be the case (gap-up on positive jobs report); whereas I'm comfortable pushing longer long if the news is more bland

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool
  • Gerbil_gold

    <squeak>
    http://www.independenttraveler.com/resources/ar

    240, I shall wait thy signal.

  • Gerbil_gold

    Be sure to select View: “all equities only” guys – other wise the numbers don't match the Post.

    EDIT: 231 on Dec 21 – dam, that's why i got suckered in entry short. 😉

  • bananaben

    Mole – what comes after Hamburger Hill? Iwo Jima?

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    bias bias
    I think I will use the same chart to illustrate that instead of chasing mediocre 1-2 days pullbacks on 240+, how huge money could be made on buying under 100

    biased and his money..

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    No bias here – and I fully agree. But we aren't below 100 now, are we?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That's when I drop the big one.

  • TransworldDepravity

    Update to Monday's VIX/UUP/SPX combo chart. Or is this just a bear's desperate last stand.

    Basic premise is that during the time period Jul-Sep 08, (1) the VIX was completing an ending diagonal finishing below 20 (2) SPX positively correlated to a rising dollar (3) UUP makes a strong move crossing over the VIX. The stage is set for today…or tomorrow…maybe…

    1/4
    http://www.screencast.com/t/NGE2MDMyZDMt
    1/7
    http://www.screencast.com/t/ZmM4M2M0YT

    Thank you Mole for the ISEE chart. Makes this theory stronger.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Listen to rodent genius – he's right.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Look at the ISEE chart – there is usually a delay. So no rush – if that signal hits you've got at least a day or two to get exposed.

  • Gerbil_gold

    <cough cough> – dang, i can't think of a good stripper joke.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    you know – I liked Michael's post a lot – I feel like he says
    tired-tired-tired from fighting fighting fighting
    that is probably why I am starting to peek on other people…
    I guess this is when it comes – the big change of trend..
    when the most stubborn Mad Russian gives up on fighting…

  • elliott_surfs

    Lol, is it too soon to laugh at that?

  • elliott_surfs

    Great charts. 1/7 chart – the setup looks identical to each other!

  • http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com/profile dreadwin

    This is another excellent indicator! Thanks, mole! The tape has been absolutely relentless. Maybe *I* need to go visit some strippers.

  • gmak

    <Thumbsup> Mole. The more indicators one can get lined up in one's favour, the higher the probability of a successful trade. I had all but forgotten about this one.
    Thanks again

  • boldventure

    Thanks for the heads up on the ISEE chart…Hope things go well for you in Vegas.
    It is usually rare, even in a bull market for a rally to go more than 20-23 weeks without a correction… that being said, this market is now going on 31 weeks without a significant correction (8-10%. ) I feel it needs to happen even if the economy is turning around and this is a legitament bull market, which I feel its not.
    More debt will not solve this mess and the sugar high created by the fed will come to an end sooner or later.

  • bsummertime

    good to have you back MC, hamburger hill has been reached, I love the smell of napalm in the morning

  • AudioTactics

    Cheers Mole…

    So at 9:50am this morning we had an All Equities Only ISEE of 247 according to that chart…

    Am I reading it right?

  • http://www.marketfeel.com Tonloc

    how do I replicate this chart in tradestation

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    some crazy chartfest (not Oktoberfest ) going on – come on down!

  • ameronne

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXX

    VXX is acting weird. High volume as of late. Could this mean a huge reversal coming? or does it anticipate a huge down move in the coming months. I have a feeling a reversal….. down side in equities.

  • vision_invisible

    Thanks for the post. I got the ISEE email and then went to their website to get the equities only update and literally a few minutes later this post was up 🙂

  • woewoe

    I gave you a cold eh?

  • charles_smith

    Dang, Mole, lay outside on your luxe patio there in Vegas and catch up on your Vitamin D (Vita D, not D cup, though the two go together on a nude beach… You were missed here, so knock one out of the ballpark there at the CES… and get back to HellAye.

    I think we zoom tomorrow on some bogus jobs report–like “13,273 jobs were added!” etc. and then we dive Monday after punters realize it's a good time to take profits….

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    No, YOU gave me the clap.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Scary! What am I thinking right now?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Is there going to be Hefeweizen? 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You can't. It's a special service – they don't give you a feed. However, they do offer a csv file which you might be able to import. That's what I do – and if I was at home I would have posted my evil ninja version of that chart.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You sir have been posting some very excellent work in my absence – respect!

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Works for me – and it's homeopathic.

  • http://www.marketfeel.com Tonloc

    thanks I found it

  • http://it's%20a%20secret hindyomen

    yeah i see that 247 value @ 9:50am also
    but it looks like the chart that mole posted is of the closing figure

    is that so, mole?
    is there a particular reason why the reading at close should be more important than the high/low?

  • Sleepynaptime

    Just took a look at the slosh report and it shows the remaining $75 billion matures next week, on the 14th. Does anyone know if this is it and they are actually draining the liquidity, or are they adding it back through another method? Or have they just stopped updating the data?

    http://www.gmtfo.com/reporeader/OMOps.aspx

  • AudioTactics

    Smart money is probably on QE version 2.0 (or is it 3.0 now?)…

  • standard_and_poor

    “……in general I believe it is best to discount conviction and over-weight an actual trend……”

    Let's remember and implement what the man said.

  • standard_and_poor

    Happy B. Day D. Bowie and Elvis.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fntyi077lmU

  • tradejane

    I'll bring the cake if you bring the candles.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCgNCczbixc

  • standard_and_poor

    Try this one, even if it's not his B-day.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0WF04TtkQHk

  • CorporalCarrot

    Is every one dead?

  • tradejane

    Just got back. Checking up on this morning's shorts. Yup, they're still there.

  • bobthehorse

    might be after payrolls

  • gmak

    While there is a calm before the storm – although after that creeping overnight tape some storm might be welcome – here is a new post to read.

    https://evilspeculator.com/?p=14078#disqus_thread

    NEW POST
    NEW POST
    NEW POST
    NEW POST
    NEW POST
    NEW POST
    NEW POST
    NEW POST

  • standard_and_poor

    Try this one, even if it's not his B-day.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0WF04TtkQHk

  • Chi-Town Deadhead

    Hey Mole,

    I like the CES explanation for your absence but we all know that you you are at the AEE. For those that don't know, the AEE is the Adult Entertainment Expo which just happens to correspond with CES in Vegas. I'm sure whatever device you've been working on, the entertainers will love it. (JK)

    Good luck with whatever evil device your showing out there. My good friend works for Sony and enjoys both shows while he is out there.

  • tradejane
  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    nopes, but prety close

  • tradejane

    I hear you but short-term trade and long-term hold don't have to be mutually exclusive.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vUQhZG8FeZQ

  • Pingback: Tie Me to the Mast (sell it on Monday) | the evil speculator - one nefarious trade at a time()

  • standard_and_poor

    As long as it works for you.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Actually, I also have a ticket for AEE (you know me) but haven't had any time to go there yet – insane!!

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah, they shifted gears…

  • standard_and_poor

    As long as it works for you.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Actually, I also have a ticket for AEE (you know me) but haven't had any time to go there yet – insane!!

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah, they shifted gears…