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Commodity Plays

Commodity Plays

by The MoleSeptember 7, 2011

I hate to post over myself but there are few nice setups on the horizon that require our attention. Let’s check in with our commodities trade of the year first:

Coffee – our nation’s favorite beverage and the gift that keeps on giving. Plus as a born German I appreciate a chart that can march in formation. After a short squeeze from hell we got to T1 at 265 and near our T2 target at 300. The big test for holding any remaining lottery tickets however was the current net-lines sell level at 279.9, which thus far has been rejected. Nursing this trade is now pretty much a non-brainer: We don’t want to see a close below 279.9 and if that level holds in the next five days we are good to go for 300. However – if we just go sideways it may be time to call it the trade of the year and reign in any remaining long positions.

Now on to our current setups:
[amprotect=nonmember] Charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
[/amprotect] [amprotect=1,13,9,12,5]

Crude is peaking above its daily net-lines buy level – very nice! However there’s some resistance looming right above in the form of its 25-day SMA. A push above that (and possibly a retest) would be confirmation for a push into 96 and potentially higher.

Everyone’s favorite shiny metal – gold. Well, it’s looking bearish right now as it’s flagging a sell net-line – and this is were we take a short positions. I’d put a stop right above 1827 and pray to the dark Lord that this bitch is ready for a short squeeze. As a side note – if this pattern reverses and resolves to the upside it would be very bullish, so this is a pretty interesting setup. So don’t fuck around with those stops – be disciplined and take your loss if it comes to that.

Soybeans also flagging a sell net-line and I’d be bearish unless we push much above that 25-hour SMA on the left panel. Again, your stop should be slightly above the NLSL at 1420.25.

Keep it frosty and stick with your charts.



About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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