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Confessions Of A Teutonic Beach Dweller
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Confessions Of A Teutonic Beach Dweller

by The MoleMarch 14, 2018

The featured image above shows the view we found upon our arrival mid last week, but in the interim cloudy weather has moved in turning the horizon into one giant white reflector. Quite frankly I’m actually not a big fan of neither the beach nor the ocean. I just don’t get the point of aging your skin with damaging UV levels whilst constantly picking sand out of every orifice. And having been raised in the Austrian highlands I’ll take an alpine excursion over a day at the beach any day. Before you get your hopes up – all incriminating photos of me wearing Lederhosen as a young child have long been destroyed.

Now the only reason why we’re heading to various islands or Spanish seafronts during Las Fallas simply is the weather, which in March is still quite chilly up in higher elevations. Officially it’s still winter in Europe until we return and unless you’re willing to endure 14 hours plus crammed in an airline seat like a sardine the Mediterranean beaches or the Canary Islands are our best bet.

What I am enjoying the most here however is the silence. As you can see we’re located right on a cliff facing the ocean and all we can hear all day is the sound of waves crashing against the rocky shoreline. The entire development in which we’re located is empty, which means we practically own the place. No screaming children, no parties, no drunk tourists, no traffic, no nothing. This might sound boring to you but having to put up with rampant and increasing tourism in Valencia for most of the year it’s pure bliss to us.

By the way in case you’re wondering what I’m doing posting here in the first place: Scott is indisposed today and asked me to keep you guys entertained. He promised to return tomorrow and continue bitch slapping you all into submission. And he couldn’t have picked a better day as I’m seeing entries galore!

But first, good news! Our ZB campaign is finally getting out of the gate, and it was about time as I took this one before my vacation! Stop now goes to break/even, which I know is conservative but I have long term plans for this one.

Before we get to the entries a disclaimer: We just had Draghi deliver his speech and we’re scheduled to receive Retail Sales reports an hour before the open. So it’s possible that some of the entries posted have either been invalidated or are beyond reach.

The E-Mini has been whipsawing its way sideways for a while now and although the bearish case has been losing some of its luster it’s not completely off the table just yet. That said just observing the daily price action I must point out that the length of the major spike lows over the past three weeks appears to be outweighing those on top of us. That tells me that buyers are ready and capable of defending the 100-day SMA, full well knowing the consequences. Given the ST formation I’m willing to take out a small exploratory long position with a stop < 2740. And by small I mean 0.5% or less – I caution all of you to similarly apply conservative position sizing in combination with wide stops.

I got stopped out of gold at about 1R a few days ago and strangely the recent reversal lower compels me to take the same entry once more. However I first need to see a drop to about 1322 followed by a spike low.

EUR/USD is in a similar formation right now and although the sheer thought makes me throw up in my mouth I need to be long here after a spike low touching 1.235 or below. ISL would be < 1.2277 which ought to be keeping us out of some wild swings.

But wait there’s more! Please grab your secret decoder ring and meet me in the lair:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Richard Adler

    Is there an issue with zero Indicator? Does not seem to be updating

  • Yoda

    same here

  • phantomflash
  • Tomcat

    I would be cautious with any L PMs here because the dollar based on my lens is about to rip

  • Tomcat

    BL, are you watching Oil? Report out at 10:30. Looking for a pump and dump

  • Tomcat

    Got a fill on RB but still hoping for a fill in CL

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Tomcat

    No plus, not until I get a fill.

  • Tomcat

    covered RB for 2 cents and looking to re-short it.

  • BobbyLow

    I held short overnight via OILD. Price is looking OK but it’s been squirrelly so far. πŸ™‚

    I’m expecting to finish my back test on /QM Futures today and so far it’s looking like a good fit for my current system. I’m hoping to go live with it tomorrow if a set-up presents itself.

  • Tomcat

    GL BL, hope it works out and you can join the civilized future’s world πŸ˜‰

  • Mary

    Why would /QM backtest any differently than /CL other than a slightly wider spread? They have virtually 100% correlation due to arbitrage.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    “β€œBe still
    Stillness reveals the secrets of eternity”

    ― Lao Tzu

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    RKDA….nice day today

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Tomcat

    what does that tell you? I see further upside

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    there could be intraday crossing of the green line to the down side, but by close the line *should* act as support. “test support”

  • Tomcat

    you mean the green line below and not the straight line you drew

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    correct.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Zero seems to be running fine. Anyone still having problems?

  • Brishort

    Still not updating.

  • Lugman

    same here

  • BobbyLow

    It doesnt back test differently. But I’ll be trading /QM not /CL so my back test should be on what I plan to trade under my current system. The potential effect on my trading account and trade management is a lot different than trading ETFs and or Options because Futures trade around the clock. So it makes sense to have a “general” idea of what to expect.

    I am a Momentum/Short Term Trend Trader. By back testing numerous trades, I won’t wind up with any type of guarantee but I will get a reasonable look of how price reacted under various technical conditions.

  • Darkthirty

    Where’s the gap?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    What the …. okay I’m checking it.

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks TC. I’m looking forward to it. πŸ™‚

  • Darkthirty

    Got connectivity problems with the internet, solar event today………………………

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    No it’s friggin’ TOS logging me out in the middle of the day. WTF!

  • Mark Shinnick

    Ok…entering gap zone.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves
  • Brishort

    Zero is back!!!!!

  • Tomcat

    OK, just entered long 1/3 position, plan to add as we go lower.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    gaps can be good..
    https://media1.popsugar-assets.com/files/thumbor/OvdWWJ3IO38yueeAxlOMeq7WCEo/160×160/filters:format_auto-!!-:strip_icc-!!-:sharpen-!1,0,true!-/2015/02/24/883/n/1922153/a0fb0f858f523b82_488322287/i/Georgia-May-Jagger.jpg

  • ridingwaves

    2 x’s in a row that 10 yr heads over 2.90 and bamm, sell the market down and push some money back in to get yield to 2.80
    yield over 3 is going to scare the bejeebus out of folks….the new paradigm shift…..
    2740 fills gap by looks of it..

  • Tomcat

    looks like ES wants to test the 50MA. I think its a good entry point

  • Mark Shinnick

    Pretty rare catbird seat we have in all this.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    TBT
    crossing the line.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TBT&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p24309545480

    ..so much for a bond crash.

  • ridingwaves

    10 years running in the fed’s festival of hopium….end of decades are not that fun for investors ….. what say you market makers…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    still forming long time bottom on weekly…its really getting close to a trend long….long term cycle lines are tightening up

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    yes, I should check my weekly. it’s on the line.
    not a done deal yet.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TBT&p=W&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p29140565370

  • Yoda

    L TLT is the trade to be in now.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    I lost TOS, stockcharts, et al…………crash or ramp zone usually. Got a target @2737 FWIW

  • ridingwaves

    damn, mirror mirror…but it would seem to be counter intuitive to 3 rate increases…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I don’t want to sound like BL, but.
    Intuitive has rarely put coin in my pocket, if only by chance.
    πŸ˜‰

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s my crew? So about the Zero: it seems that TOS is starting to log me out with ‘session expired’ intermittently since the last update. I emailed them and asked WTF that was all about. I will keep an eye on this but obviously I’m on vaca right now and don’t plan on monitoring it 24×7. But hopefully those cats will get their act together and stop logging me out.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    ES not even touching VWAP thus far. I fear we are stuck in a whipsaw zone until further notice. Today was a great opportunity for the bulls to break it higher and they blew it.

  • BobbyLow

    Hey, what’s wrong with sounding like BL? LOL

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Just got an answer from those wankers:

    “Thank you for your message. The platform or app will time out after being logged in for 24 hours. We’re aware and working to restore the previous functionality. I apologize for the inconvenience.”

    Looks like I’ll have to re-log in every day until they get their act together. Sheesh… as if I wasn’t already busy enough.

  • Mark Shinnick

    That’s the thing…these brain-dead providers of services who somehow believe they can change the rules and environment on those who depend on strict stability.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It’s been fairly stable in the past seven years. But once in a while TDA releases a buggy version of TOS and I have to deal with it.

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    Switching to longer term lens I would say the case for a bottom forming is still in play… https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4d28bc9dc65f752b5afcd0ddcf5870ee8343b9409b37e4478ef8accf72c7f937.png

  • ridingwaves

    it’s a hip thing to be BL……:)

  • BobbyLow

    πŸ™‚

  • ridingwaves

    crypto routs may be moles new magic traveling touch….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    let’s blow this thing, and go home.

    https://media.giphy.com/media/l4HobzcZf6eRE1G48/giphy.gif

    off to lunch!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Shhhh, don’t mention hip around BL. you know it’s a *sore* topic.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Tomcat

    BL, still in OILD? This intra day reversal is making me re-think if I should withdraw my limit S on CL which hasnt gotten filled yet

  • BobbyLow

    Nope. This was another trade closed at BE. Price action sucked all day especially with another build and equities being down. I’m in cash now and in wait and see mode.

  • Tomcat

    That is the most glaring to me, since there has been a positive correlation between indices and oil and like you I thought with the above exp build it would fall below 60. Oh well, we dont have to like it but we have to accept price for what it is…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes…or Continuation.

  • Brishort

    There is no such thing as hanging in the air in the middle of a gap….. descending tops, flat bottom on 5 min ES…. poised for resolution one way or another but prior close likely.

  • Tomcat

    Can’t there be a middle ground aka sideways??? πŸ˜‰

  • Brishort

    P&F high pole warning on ES. http://scharts.co/2DsVqSA

  • BobbyLow

    I’ve been grinding numbers for 2 days on /QM and my head is spinning but it looks like it was worth it. The results on paper were outstanding. The big BUT is that it assumes I was there to take every single trade that qualified under my rules and that I did not take any trades that followed multiple long upper and lower wicks or chase big gaps etc. Being there for most trades shouldn’t be a big problem because most of my trades begin in the AM. Another thing is that making trading decsions on paper is easy because there’s no time pressure or pressure of any kind so keeping my cool will be key as well.

    One of the things that really caught my attention is that I actually did two back tests. One test was trading it every day of the week and one test that eliminated EIA Days, Fed Days, and Fridays. It just so happened that trading the future on Monday, Tuesday and Thursday performed better. This might have been an anomaly. If not I think I know why but that’s for another discussion.

    Another important point is that November, December, and January was relatively easy trading but even though February was positive it was much harder. I think overall volatility began to kick in big time in February and although it was subtle it affected Crude as ATR levels really increased in February. March is off to a decent start with the exception of this past Tues in which the CPI number raised hell with price. I’ve added CPI Day to my no trade list.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Sure…but nature abhors an information vacuum. Yet the model of Japan’s 10y fully supports your question…for the time being :).

  • ridingwaves

    as mentioned below about to get juicy for long though, you could wait it out but I’m taking 1/4R tomorrow, the stop for me would be 35.5 but under different time lens

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Schrodinger’s cat!
    8310.

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    Hey guys, sorry about tapping out on today. I had a webinar for my crew which took my full attention. I’ll be back in the game tomorrow

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    The highest probability after an extended trend is ALWAYS choppy and sideways

    V bottoms are statistically rare

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    If it breaks here, its going to be epic

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..after doing a post from the Hospital, anything else is ..worrisome.
    πŸ˜‰

    https://i.stack.imgur.com/2DmEM.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    LOL!

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    I actually did my day’s trading live on camera today and showed my system entry rules. I don’t want to shill here but I’m pretty sure you could figure out where to find it

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    NEW POST!

  • Mary

    GG how do you format the link to make the picture display?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Disqus does all the work.

    right click on your image, “copy image address”

    paste it into your comment area…..and

    you should get some text line with http on the front and .jpg or .png on the end.

    then post.

    https://pixfeeds.com/images/flowers/daisies/1280-161725811-field-of-daisy-flowers.jpg

  • Mary
  • Mary

    It never seems to display for me for pictures, but it always works for youtube videos.