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Consolidation Plans

by The MoleAugust 6, 2009

Apologies for skipping my daily wrap up post today but my afternoon was booked with appointments and I had to run out of the house at the sound of the bell. I’m pretty tired and have little energy to sink into charts but fortunately the path ahead is pretty clear.  We’ve got two possible scenarios and neither require skill in counting waves – just some good old fashioned common sense.

It’s quite obvious the relentless upside progression has slowed and that the bears [yet again] are hoping for a meaningful retracement. However, a sell off requires more than just showing up for work and praying for one as the bulls are in no mood to sell it seems – as evidenced by the almost identically timed snap back rallies of the past two days (which might or might not have been related to those POMO auctions).

I’ve mentioned today that we need to start breaching support lines and unless that happens all we’re going to get is a sideways consolidation (Blue Con) and bloody elbows from August option theta burn.. If the bears decide to dig deep and not run for the hills at the slightest sight of buying pressure we might actually retrace a little (Orange Con) – maybe not much but perhaps enough to earn a few of the bucks back we’re been surgically relieved of in the past few weeks.

The Dollar is pushing up a little right now but that doesn’t mean they can’t push a button somewhere and make it tank to 77 or even 76. What’s one last equities rally among mutual cronies after all?

I was extremely lucky today to bulk up on some SPY puts right around 1008. However, I burned about 30% of that trying to hedge myself in the futures today during the intra-day rat race. In the end I ended up in the green but psychologically speaking it again was way too much work and stress in return for what came out on the other end. Just look at how easy the bulls have had it in the past few weeks/months – it’s been like taking candy from a bear cup. Although today was a bit different than most of the days we’ve seen lately I still did not get a sense of urgency, despite some long downside candles. I knew where the resistance lines were and we didn’t blow through the one that counted, which was around 990 on the ES.

Had we bounced back from there but then sold into the close, breaching that obligatory intra-day low, then I would be in a more bearish disposition tonight. But we didn’t – again – money yet again bought into the ‘dip’. The bears did not win today – they just didn’t lose and this sell off was condoned. And as of now the futures have not given up anything since the close.

The end of Primary {2} is not in sight unless we see volatility on the bearish side. Which means a panic sell off – maybe even followed by a long candle which at least would indicate to me that the bulls are pushing hard to start unwinding their positions. I think we’ll know when we see it – but thus far I’m not seeing it just yet. Maybe I’m biased and a bit jaded at this point – if so, and if you disagree please make yourself heard in the comment section.

BTW – in the context of that dreaded POMO affair – here’s a great read on ZH on a U.S. Treasury sponsored POMO pyramid scheme Chris Martenson (of Crash course fame – if you remember) managed to uncover. I have not read it yet – but I’m salivating to dig into the details – I’m sure it’s going to cost me several hours of sleep tonight.

See you on the other side.

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • KidDisco

    Doesn't it all depend on the jobs number tomorrow? If they get a good number, this thing could rip higher.

  • KidDisco

    Reposting this question so I can get a some more thoughts:

    Say Zero lite is pushing hard in one direction and you want to play along. Do you buy ITM or OTM options if its just a quick trade?

  • bist

    Hm I really think a bust higher option should be on the chart as well. Gapping up has been the norm after days of consolidation lately. While it might not make much sense, it's become expected. With Cramer pumping C, fudged job numbers, and AIG beating expectations tomorrow it can become a reality.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    We may just sail sideways despite the job number

  • Dan Robbins

    ES/NQ/TF have all flipped down on the 3/10/16 MACD and the John Person COMAS (1 and 3 day Pivot point) crossed down on them today as well. So the monthly pivot of 950 on the ES would be my target right now, provided of course, the employment number tomorrow morning isn't tampered with….

  • mabman

    I’m not sure if you follow the implications here but what it is saying is that the treasury is selling bonds to raise funds. The buyers are usually foreigners (like China). It looks like they aren’t buying as much (and getting smaller) and hence the fed is forced (thru covert means) to buy them. So, in fact the US is buying back their own debt which is a recipe for disaster b/c the only way they can do this is by printing $. Remember, the reason they are selling the bonds in the first place is to raise funds that they don’t have. If no one will buy those bonds then they either have to raise rates (which the fed won’t do as that would kill housing and the economy) till they become attractive to buyers, have a failed auction which will cause panic, or buy back the bonds themselves. I think you know what printing $ out of thin air does to the currency eventually.

    From: Mark Bradley [mailto:markabradley@rogers.com]
    Sent: Thursday, August 06, 2009 10:20 PM
    To: 'Mark Bradley'
    Subject: BLATANT Monetization Uncovered – The Market Ticker

    I think you all know what this means and that the US is living on borrowed time UNLESS you believe that they can lend themselves funds forever.
    http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/130

  • molecool

    Yes, but that would kind of fit into the 'blue con' scenario as I have doubts that we'll go much further than maybe 2020 on such an event and then continue sideways.

    Give me a break guys – I think my explanation was fairly clear and if not you can scratch it off to only four hours of sleep last night 😉

  • molecool

    When are you guys going to learn that the news do not matter. They only attempt to explain what already happened.

  • BrassMonkyBalls

    chill Mole…..I'm with ya brother….again, not said enough but thank you.

  • Tronacate

    Ya….sell signal on NDX last night and I expect the RUT will follow……

  • Fujisan

    I'm assuming that you are daytrading and in that case, liquidity is everything. You don't want to lose much trying to get in and out. You should probably trade futures for a daytrade, but if you still like to use options, go with the strike price with the most open interests (i.e., ATM options). This way, you can minimize the slippage and the delta is close to the future (=50 delta).

  • standard_and_poor

    Biggest gainer in portfolio today was LIZ – everything else took it on the chin.

    “Night and Day” (Dig it rats, Ella Fitzgerald and U2 ala Cole Porter.)
    In the roaring traffic's boom
    In the silence of my lonely room
    I think of you

    Night and day, Night and day
    Under the hide of me
    There's an oh such a hungry yearning burning inside of me
    And its torment won't be through
    'Til you let me spend my life making love to you
    Day and night, night and day
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEM_63_P0CY
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kCdHM3i0DWA

  • rhae

    QID daily… Well about time QID finally got a buy signal today… several times during the day it flashed then flipped but today it held. See if it can get some follow through Friday…
    http://screencast.com/t/Gm13dV2a7kw

  • EDC

    It was a good info, either way what goes up will go down.

    Unless every “investor” or invuestor (as that commercial sounds) wouldn't mind paying for ruth cris prices for dog taco stand food… Not saying dog taco stand food is bad or anything but just saying.

  • byhiselo

    in regards to this POMO acitivty, doc over at capital stool has this: Not only is it not unusual,they've been doing it twice a week like clockwork every week since they announced the program in mid March. They even pre-announce the tentative schedule. There's no conspiracy and nothing hidden whatsoever. All this stuff about the Fed hiding what it's doing makes me laugh. They publish it on their damn website fergodsakes. If they wanted to hide it, well then…they'd hide it.
    http://www.capitalstool.com/forums/index.php?sh

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Since SnP announced jazz week (or was it 3 weeks ago?)
    hope you'll enjoy this fine lady
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=djegYF3y7tk

  • byhiselo

    stick to the technicals, honor your stops, cash is a position, when in doubt stay out, average up into a winning position not into a losing position, emotion is the enemy, let others pick tops and bottoms as no medals are awarded on this battlefueld, listen to others views but don't defer to them, when you think you have it figured out wait a day or a week…every trend gives you numerous opportunities to get on board…patience

  • BrassMonkyBalls

    Come on S&P…

    somebody please…..

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=13CfZTuywNs&feat

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    the question to ask:
    “Was it only prearranged exchange of notional or interest payment hidden under MISC?”

  • EDC

    Just as the BLS publishes that incomes went down but doesn't make a loud press release.

    the info is always there, that isn't the point. They are using other ways to monetize debt because of lack of demand for our debt.

    Leave it to those who are all for the FED to laugh at it… (not saying you are but the doc, and many other PHDs i have seen in my short time haven't a clue about what really matters).
    Many cheer the fed for doing such a good job in the crisis… Yes that is partially true, the problem is they earned an F in allowing all of this to happen. those nimwits don't blame them just congratulate them. Even niall ferguson on hbo last week. said they did a great job, yes niall your smart but they screwed the pooch over the past two decades to cause us the huge problem that can't be solved with a few band aids and some stitches.

  • byhiselo

    true dat…the london bus bombings hit the market for all of half a day, the trend was up…tuning into the trend not the noise is the way to profit but not necessarily happiness

  • Fujisan

    Don't forget Sarah Vaughan, S&P.

  • byhiselo

    you are exactly right…in the best of all possible worlds one is right and make money..i'd guess that the smart or lucky phd economists have had their money in gov't bonds for the last 20-30 years or longer…the not so smart ones…who knows…bought the highs and sold the lows?

  • Keirsten

    Good night Rats.

    Toots Thielemans
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CKzpWuIYosY

  • EDC

    your right and good points.

    being smart and getting it doesn't mean that you can trade, one's own
    money. I'll admit that. trading is difficult because of one's
    emotions.

    it is easier to invest/speculate someone else's though!

  • Cerebro82

    I'm currently short this market. The market was not bought as hard at the close. The NQ has been extremely weak lately. $SPX 1000 was rejected hard around 130pm and they lost it at the close (you know they wanted that +1000 close). Tape felt different for the first time in a while.

  • Ghostdog

    Some of you may find this interesting, not as short term information but Im sure you can see some interesting connotations of what “may” be to come.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UaghKGcYkx8

    Also, if my count is right, I see today as either the completion of 5 of 5 of a fifth wave extension which will complete “A” UP (or a of c). Either that, or one more small push tomorrow. If somehow it closes strong tomorrow something else entirely different is going on. I dont think its completely over yet, I would like to see some of the sentiments higher but we are certainly moving in the right direction for a collapse.

    Sleep Well, it should be fun tomorrow 🙂

  • ACJ

    Here, let me write the Headline for Yahoo Finance tomorrow.

    “Market goes (up/down) (despite/because) of jobs # coming in (above/below) expected data”

    Don't be a sucker!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    interesting – my second music choice for tonight was Nina Simone 🙂

  • jamesmarkii

    tomorrow i think we make a lower high around 1003.50 and cascade down afterwards…..(see Full stochastics on the 60min chart) 14,3,3

  • steveo77

    Comment from “Ticker Street” who has a nice blog, check it out…

    C has been rising like a turd. The media says it is “rebalancing”. Do they mean that C buys its own shares to pump up the market? In the last 2 days, 25% of the NYSE volume is from C and BAC. WTH! Why don't they make them public sector banks? Do we need these stupid private banks? There are many countries in which public sector banks are outperforming private sector with solid fundamentals.

    steveo postulates:

    I would guess that C gets some real cheap money from the Fed ( or whatever combination of liquidity provider and/or Government Sachs), jacks up their share price, since everyone knows the market won't go down unless financials do, and I bet some government pension funds buy the C shares at the higher prices to keep the rally going.

    Gasoline (a.k.a. liquid bananas, but that's a whole different story) started this fire, and the only tool they think can work is to keep throwing more gasoline at the fire. “We have too much invested in saving this economy to stop now”. It won't end well.

    But here is the key, of the trillions printed there is 10 times more out there are loans (credit). In the next financial panic, this contraction of credit, i.e. the ability to buy things and spend money will be massive related to the printed money increase. I guess the government will then start lending money directly because “we got so much invested already, this has go to work”. But people will default no matter what the interest rate is.

    You know how many people I am hearing just this week saying, I am not spending anything no matter how good your financing is, even with 0 interest, I want to see what happens in the economy or the market. This is in my own business. You can have a solar system pay for itself in a year, and they get free money for a year, but they still don't want it. Welcome to the future.

    You know how many people I heard in the last 2 weeks tell me…I am not sure I can stay in this house so I don't want to invest anymore even if its a good payback or a net positive increase in equity, I don't care, i am $50,000 underwater on my mortgage, and I just ain't going to spend anymore regardless of how the numbers look. OK, welcome to now.

    Business strategy: try to sell to rich people, until they also are infected by the collective psychological malaise. Then move to some ag country and buy farmland whilst their economy tanks and global shipping of food becomes non-existent (depressing farmland prices). OK, if this strategy works for you send a nice donation, and if it doesn't, sorry, it was free.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    good one – they can paint it on the billboards with digital time display to change the date only
    that is why I am truly surprised anyone still reading/listening/believing news/crap …well – I will not go into religion subject

  • nummy

    have u seen the cheerleaders on cnbc today mole? those job numbers tomorrow may send us tearing higher, which hopefully doesn't happen. but we all know how easy it is to fudge the numbers a bit by redefining how it's calculated.

  • byhiselo

    from a purely contrarian view, thats fairly close to a bottom imo

  • KidDisco

    With all due respect, I have to disagree here.

    Just the other day, I lost about 10k because home sales came out
    better than expected. The market just took off while I wasn't looking.
    I thought the market was supposed to go down, naturally, because we
    were at all kinds of resistance and overbought conditions.
    Nevertheless, the news took me out and clown-raped me.

  • Scrillhog

    Anyone else think both gold and silver look like mouth watering shorts right now? Almost any chart I look at – 15m / 2hr/ Daily all look very ripe. I'm tempted to short right now, but I may just wait until morning.

  • steveo77

    I guess what I am saying is that even though all the financial cheerleaders out there are cheering their hearts out, earnings have “beat” expectations, and hope is everywhere (if you listen to the news), the reality is that things suck and people who are in bad shape are not buying, nor buying into the BS. They are retrenching because they know things just arent right. The consumer is 70% of GDP.

    But, “everyone” is a contrarian, aren't they. I mean seriously….doesnt 98% of all investors know that they should be contrarian.

  • steveo77

    Gold also looks like an awesome IHS…..but I agree, I want to short it, but caution and insane currency markets (gold is a currency)–makes me sit out for now.

  • PRSGuitars

    Currency crisis = run on hard asset like 'currency' = difficult for PM shorts?

    Just a devil's advocate approach.

  • Scrillhog

    Good thoughts, I am proceeding cautiously but will most likely short in the morning.

  • amity

    http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=c – see insider buying and the link 07-Aug-09 12:12AM Citigroup Scores 'Cars for Clunkers' Contract at TheStreet.com

  • PRSGuitars

    EUR/USD from last night: http://www.screencast.com/t/uE1iv4Yl

    EUR/USD update — still hugging the top of the channel from the outside: http://screencast.com/t/er6QJPZ03vY

  • guitarlover

    I love Toots. Beautiful!

  • guitarlover

    Excellent David. Love it!

  • Divertom

    IMHO. I believe silver is a great short at these levels. Although take it as you may I'm 60% short silver. Added another 30% today. Silver bulls over 90%. Almost at the same levels saw in June and we know what happened then. Daily bearish engulfing pattern. Also, a major reason that I sold all my euro's and bought dollar's (home currency) was the 5% dollar bulls. Usually when you see such a crowded trade along with resistence/support to overcome I will take the trade. Again, these are not day trades. If I remember right you daytrade so take it as you will.

  • guitarlover

    You're layin' down some great tunes S&P. Keep em comin'.

  • steveo77

    I made a collage commentary of internet news. It is amazing. I printed it with color toner.

    And does anyone like the term “Irreverant relevancy”, if I get zero response, I stop using it and stop posting.

    http://screencast.com/t/oXvisNSav

    Irreverant relevancy
    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/

  • http://forkoholic.spaces.live.com/ Forkoholic

    My Le channel is better than yours, mole 🙂
    http://forkoholic.com/images/spx080609.jpg

  • ItsOnlyPaper

    ya mole, fuck twitter.
    If I ever make it to your house I want to see this sculpture out front…

    http://tonytone.wordpress.com/2008/10/16/damien

  • Squidman

    Promises, promises…..
    Costco! Please, like you have any other choice over there.

  • steveo77

    Where do you live Squiddy?

  • Squidman

    NM, land of sunshine and if you were here I'd take you up on a solar outfit in a heartbeat. Our locals are all scam and rip-off artists. I know you have few choices but as a former small business owner I can't step foot in that Costco place, except when I'm on Kona.

  • steveo77

    Dude, the Costco steak is so ripping good….you ain't seen nothing till you seen a Kunia steak and marinated short rib Shin dig…….and steel dart tournament….

    yeah, I know I used to live Chicago, and a finer steak can be had, but at 4 times the cost…..that would be like buying the market at current values….thinking you get a 3 week room temp aged premium beef, and you end up with Costco….wait a minute…you buy the market now, and you end up with rancid BS.

  • raised_by_wolves

    It could rip higher even if they don't get a good number.

  • onorio

    AIG 14% in pre-market…another squeeze.

    Funny yesterday when i look at AIG 52 week record…is down 96% from 500$ a share.

  • molecool

    But mine is bigger than yours.

  • Bankrupt

    rats, what's the plan now? rally into jobs report and then sell off?

  • Anonymous

    I suspect they have some computers co-located at the BLS.

  • onorio

    ADP job loss was bigger than expected, so would expect the same today…selloff? Who knows…

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Drumroll please (for the reports) …

  • amokta

    help me…am tempted to try buying 'FAZ' today – should i do this on open (i.e. market price when market open), or wait for a few minutes before buying, and is it a good idea to buy FAZ today? (i dont do shorting, puts, call, whatever, as too risky for (novice) me so only choice for me is to 'buy' shares, or currency exchange)

  • Bankrupt

    omg

    how is that possible?

    government jobs?

  • KidDisco

    More fuel for the bulls.

    Employment looking much better. Market ripping higher right now.

  • Bankrupt

    I will never buy faz again. yes, its risky…

  • Iguanadon

    If your goal is to go completely insane, fits of weeping, uncontolable outbursts of profanities, total mental and emotional collapse, then yes buy FAZ.

    If you wish to remain a competent member of society that your family still wants to associate with, don't do it.

  • dumamae

    you are up early?

  • springheel_jack

    That's very much the issue with gold. The huge perfectly formed complex inverse H&S may not play out, but while we are waiting to see whether it does, gold & silver look like a brave short to me.

  • fuw

    WTF. Euro/USD dropping back down like a rock.

  • shortcover

    we'll close red today…the blow off has begun.

  • unibummer

    Never be in a rush to buy FAZ…look at a RIFIN chart for a possible good entry and wait for it to come to you.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    I started the week thinking 9.7%. Then after the ADP peek-a-boo on Wed. and the Initial Claims and revisions yesterday I was thinking 9.6 or on the outside, 9.5%.

    Seems like both service industries and manufacturing were adding jobs.

  • AudioTactics

    During recessions, the labor force shrinks as people decide not to pursue jobs.

  • standard_and_poor

    Thanks  ;  )
     

    ________________________________

  • standard_and_poor

    OK, thanks Fuji, :  )
     

    ________________________________

  • springheel_jack

    Maybe not. If this is a wave 5 up as McHugh is suggesting, then we may see this rise for another two or three days before falling.

  • shortcover

    in around 28 w/ a 29 Aug call…the other day.

  • standard_and_poor

    Thanks for Framton, it’s now Intl. Playas day, where are you? 
     

     

    ________________________________

  • unibummer

    I bought a small position yesterday at around 26.5, more of a lottery play than anything. Good luck to us.

  • EDC

    adding jobs on seasonal adjustments because of Auto manufacturing… strange because the only headlines were big three laying off more employees along with suppliers.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    yesterday's plan was:
    “tomorrow's news today A.K.A. “my day trading plan”
    pre 8:30AM go long on the dip
    shall uptrend confirm – stay long till 10:20AM
    go short after that
    count de monee”

    https://evilspeculator.com/?p=9853&success#comme

    Plan slightly modified now
    closed /NQ long for 20 ptoint profit – went short /NQ 1620.25 (may be will pay the price for not waiting “10:20”)
    Good morning kids (AKA Forkoholic&Mole)

  • EDC

    someone is trading for dollars as we speak.

  • AudioTactics

    So much for the Trim Tabs/Mish Shedlock argument…

    Glad I was flat going into this – just too much uncertainty after Goldman and DB lowered their forecasts late yesterday.

    Now the market is unable to make new highs but will we see a sell-off with out a catalyst? I'm not so sure… At best I think we may get back to unchanged on the day.

  • bsummertime

    short it ( FAZ) it will eventually go to .0000001

  • shortcover

    right, but i'm going with his other line regarding a truncated 5.

    S&P is over it's upper bollinger band as well as a heavy overbought reading. can you say it's baked in? and can you say NOBODY expects downside??

  • springheel_jack

    Careful here rats.

    McHugh's analysis is that we were in a wave 4 down Wednesday & Thursday & that we are in a wave 5 up now. When it finishes then the upswing is complete.

    Having said that USD is strengthening so far today and this may be a short wave up. There is a good chance that we will see 1010 though, and a reasonable chance that we will see 1020 before wave 5 finishes.

  • shortcover

    26.5 is more or less my basis w/ the call…all i care about is having it above 29 on Aug 21 so I get called out with a 10% profit in 3 weeks.

  • jturner

    so the Euro goes down big in the past few minutes but ES stays flat? how can this be in a supposedly “fair” market

  • molecool

    See my post – they can press that button any time.

  • Bricks

    Here comes the gap up open. If the bears can close it we're in good shape. Otherwise we have at least a few more days of upside IMHO.

  • springheel_jack

    This looks close to the top. Strong negative divergences and signs of at least a significant interim top.

    If USD strengthens today then this wave 5 may well be truncated.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    all arguments – bearish or bullish mean squawk – stop taking sides 🙂
    especially when people try to do “arguments” and “trading” at the same time (as aforementioned KD and MS…almost forgot TK)

  • GrooveDaddy

    brother… why go long FAZ on an up day? Perhaps we get a tiny pullback on profit taking… Wouldnt you want to short financials on weakness? This may be a short term “all clear” sign for bulls to go buck wild again for 1 more leg up. Im thinkin NQ's tells a story today. Just sayin…

  • springheel_jack

    Yes, strong movement in the last few minutes.

  • Douala

    <<<<<<<< Dan Black >>>>>>>>>….

    I hope you see this…… [give me a shout if you do]

    You are a gentlemen in every sense of the word. I read what you wrote at the end of your post on Cobra's web page. Thanks for the acknowledgment. 😉

  • TheMacroEconomist

    But the really massive layoffs in the automotive supply chain never materialized. Credit the fast forced-thru bankruptcy exits of Chrysler & GM, and then the Cash For Clunkers thing.

    But does all of that Plunge Protection make US automotive more or less competitive on the world stage going forward…

  • fuw

    You are probably right. But wouldn't this be the perfect time for a selloff, when absolutely nobody is expecting it?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    try not to pay too much attention to “herd correlations” – just like patterns they get “disconnected”

  • blahblah2

    Hmmm, so I wonder if the employment report numbers were leaked to Goldman? LMAO Revising their “estimate.”

  • springheel_jack

    Sometimes the correlations can break down as a lead indicator of a turn. Sometimes just supply & demand in the markets diverges though.

  • shortcover

    regardless…if GS had it essentially right…and the market is efficient (lol)…then it's already been priced in.

  • annamall

    I can bet they were, I hate GS!

  • fuw

    I'm thinking the same thing (but my bearish bias right now is probably messing with my head).

  • Douala

    CTA trader’s conference call notes:

    “What we find disconcerting is that the US is issuing debt at an unprecedented rate; what happens if the economy begins to actually expand faster than forecast, and companies need money to grow their businesses, creating competition for credit between the private and public sector? Interest rates will rise, possibly sharply, and the resulting increase in debt servicing payments will choke off any substantial recovery.

    While many celebrate the unrelenting nature of the three-week global equity market romp on the wild side, we see potential trouble lurking beneath the surface.

    > Most US sectors are very over-bought on all timeframes
    > Momentum is diverging against price
    > While the Financial sector has been grabbing headlines all this week, the NASDAQ has logged consecutive distribution days, with Semi-conductors looking vulnerable to further pressure.
    > Markets have been unable to meaningfully overcome round number resistance at 2000 on the NASDAQ, 1000 on the S&P, and 1000 on gold.

    At this particular juncture using RSI as a measuring tool, equity price risk is elevated, so we prefer to let the market prove it wants to go higher before committing more funds to upside positions. We believe at the very least the market needs to pause and consolidate recent gains before resuming its upward trajectory. The S&P 1008 reached yesterday at the open may be a short-term cycle top.

    Have a great day.”

  • springheel_jack

    Just because they tell you you're paranoid doesn't mean you're not being followed.

    Unknown hippy wit from the 1960s.

  • annamall

    We were right on Jack! 🙂 I also was long the USD but got stopped out last night *&*P%*&&*&&** (you know how that feels) LOL

  • fuw

    Yeah, lately I've started seeing GoldmanS boys lurking in the corners when I go and buy my coffee.

  • thelefteyeguy

    so income is falling but employment is rising….does this make sense?

    are they counting volunteering now as employment?

  • Osso

    hi SHJ…where were u ??? FOMC next week..mmmm….

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    today will be very telling – should we go down on a “good news” – that would be the best indication that rally is over…for now
    oh – we need not to forget to subtract number of college graduates caused spike back in June – I bet rate still going steady up if we do

  • springheel_jack

    LOL

  • Osso

    good point. Reason for USD strength.

  • Douala

    LOL +1 [my morning laugh..thanks]

  • blahblah2

    Actually, it does make sense and probably what needs to happen in the long run. The labor costs for all the countries have got to equalize. It would surprise me, though, if this is the real move yet for employment, though, but it does fit with what *has* to happen in the long-term, IMO.

  • shortcover

    right…key here is USD…

  • standard_and_poor

    Morning Playas, welcome to friday – International Playas Day.
    Put on your bowler hats, lets start with our theme song:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZgBWQ0eC5w

    This week we've lucky to have had a special guest DJ on loan from the Lincoln Park Zoo, none other than the notorious Mr. Brass Munky Balls. He'll joining us on this
    special day as well.

  • Iguanadon

    SPY ran above yesterdays high for a few minutes, but now back below it. Going to be an interesting first 30 minutes of the day.

  • Osso

    do rallies end on good news..???

  • springheel_jack

    Yes, we were right on Anna.

    We are so close to that interim top and turn though for USD & equities.

    There's still a bit more to come I think & then we're there. Monday/Tuesday latest but could be today.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Great report. (And S&P 1010 has been a line in the sand for me since late last year, on volume-by-price TA. We'll see if the resistance holds.)

    Probably we gap open near the ES high, then see if the high holds.

    Clearly the buck doesn't know what to make of this too-good report. First it hated it, then it liked it, then it hated it again and now maybe it likes it – putting oil and metals on the roller coaster.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    part timers, furlough, pay cuts

  • EDC

    I wouldn't say their arguments were “wrong” they just don't appear correct today.
    In the BLS data there are over 400 less people in the pool of eligible workers… That means with our population growth that we have less people in the workforce.

    remember the BLS is a survey, household phone call. nothing more or less. Rosies from canada has said that at minimum we need to creat 150k jobs a month just to keep in with the trend of demographics, anything less are job losses.

    Baby boomers are not leaving the workforce, it is not an argument, they have experienced three asset bubbles in less than 10 years.

  • Me_XMan

    Anyone still shorts here?

  • springheel_jack

    Not reliably. LOL.

  • Me_XMan

    Yes looking like a blowoff top coming today.

  • thelefteyeguy

    yeah Walmart wages for anyone!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    if selloffs end on “so bad that and it will get worse” news – rally can do exactly opposite
    where u been?

  • Iguanadon

    Big brother is listening and if they hear someone say:

    “I'm going to WORK in the yard since I don't have a job and have the time”

    or

    “I'm going to the gym to WORK out and release some of these frustrations from being unemployed.”

    or

    “Damn, the toaster won't WORK any more… now I'm unemployed and can't make toast.”

    They count those folks as employed now.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Yup, watching the buck, that's what I'll be doin' …

  • standard_and_poor

    Let's dedicate this Kravitz tune to our own pin up girls, Annamall,Keirsten, Fujisan
    Douala and others:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVDbKvGukeU

  • standard_and_poor

    78% long coming into this morning- a nice 29 point pop in nasdaq.

  • jacksoo

    LOL

  • shortcover

    getting more short all the time…rather be short at 1000 than at 666, i'll tell you that!

  • thelefteyeguy

    …USD rising…

  • jacksoo

    what do you expect, all the real jobs have long since gone off shore…

  • OldManRiver

    U-6

    July 2008: 10.4%
    July 2009: 16.8%

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    current counts – I have no clue what I do when “counting”, but it makes me money
    http://screencast.com/t/sIkKKBRJz

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    nice pause of sanity old man 🙂

  • Cerebro82

    I reshorted and will hold til 38.2 retracement of the this entire bear market which is only a few points away. If this trade gets taken out, I will not trade again until there is overwhelming evidence that P2 is over. This is just too much work for so little reward. More bears will begin to feel like me (I'm probably one of the last ones to come to this conclusion), so a top might be getting close, there will be no one else to squeeze.

  • trabuco

    In case anyone is interested…here is a clear example of how the gov. is monetizing the debt…
    http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/130

  • jacksoo

    aah some real numbers…….

  • EDC

    Trin on tos is at ahem 19.0?

    is that possible?
    if it reverts to a normal market will we go way higher?

  • standard_and_poor

    LIZ and MWW, both in the portfolio are up big right now.

    Let's now go to Mexico for pinup # 2 – Sexy Araceli Arambula:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0rzw1Xo5j8

  • annamall

    🙂 agreed!

  • TheMacroEconomist

    That's like that day last week where TRIN was putting out TICK around this time of day. 😉

    Not seeing real extremes on TICK. That last push to take on S&P 1010 again stalled out.

  • thelefteyeguy

    ben ben ben…you're setting up yourself to be the fall guy…

  • charles_smith

    Maybe the dollar is rising because “it's just time” (hat tip to Armstrong). There may be some irony here: the “good news” offers an excuse for the buck to rise which then kills off the equity rally.
    The other irony is this market has rallied hard on “less bad” for so long that “good news” might actually mark the top. The wall of worry just crumbled. Looks like a good day to do something else and then check in after the close. The dollar and the long bond will loom large.

  • EDC

    maybe we see a truncated 5th wave.

  • Scrillhog

    Went ahead w/ my plan to short gold (/YG) at 965.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    W5 down on 3min confirmed

  • LegendC

    I am and it would be a lot more comfortable if it was from the top.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    covered 1/2 /nq short 1025 – 8pts+

  • http://www.aggressivelyuninformed.com nepharis

    Looks like we should fill most of this gap pretty soon… Shorted /NQ @ 1617, I'll cover at 1607 for 10 points… almost there…

  • Lordted

    Not falling as strongly as Wednesday or Thursday?…. Still not tested above 1010 so am scalping this

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    feeling lazy – covered all – total gain on 2 trades 28points /NQ – have a good day ladies and gents -I am not trading full time to work full time 🙂
    Thou I'll be bothering you during the day

  • LegendC

    Typical, just got knocked out

  • standard_and_poor

    Gracias Tio. : )

  • annamall

    Have a good day David! Keep annoying us yes, that will be good! 😉

  • Scrillhog

    Mole,
    Here's a bond traders view on the POMO buybacks…

    http://acrossthecurve.com/?p=7671

  • annamall

    I went short EUR/USD earlier, if it breaks 142.50 watch out below! 🙂

    Also picked up some SPY calls when we dipped (wow) down to 1000 SPX.

    This is nuts dollar strong and equities strong Hmmmmmmm????

  • Scrillhog

    I was shorting but covered the other night like an idiot. Whenever I tinker with my trades is when I leave a bunch of $$$ on the table. Note to self: let winners run and just move stops.

  • trabuco

    Mejor sacar la pasta de USA porque pronto el dolar no va a valer ni mierda!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    on what?
    BTW – did you see indicator I posted in reply to your auto fibs?

  • Me_XMan

    NONFARM PAYROLLS
    Briefing.com Updated August 7, 2009

    The headlines from the July report should warm the administration in Washington and they will engender confidence in the idea that the worst of the downturn is over.
    Notwithstanding the relative improvement in July, the labor market is still a troubled place. The difficulty in finding a new job is best reflected in the extension of the average duration of unemployment to 25.1 weeks from 24.5 weeks. This is the highest since records began in 1948. More alarmingly perhaps is that 1 out of every 3 unemployed workers has been unemployed for 27 weeks or longer.
    The July employment report has some encouraging characteristics, but at the end of the day there were still 247,000 jobs lost in July, bringing the total number of jobs lost since December 2007 to 6.7 million. There isn't a whole lot to cheer about there.
    Weekly claims for unemployment have to drop below 400,000 before payrolls will stabilize.
    Limited wage growth and declining payroll levels are a recipe for very poor consumer confidence and sluggish consumer spending.
    July nonfarm payrolls declined -247,000 (consensus -325K) while nonfarm payrolls for June (-443K) and May (-303K) were both revised slightly lower from their prior readings.
    The unemployment rate dipped to 9.4% (consensus 9.6%) from 9.5%.
    Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% (consensus 0.1%).
    The average workweek increased to 33.1 hours (consensus 33.0) from 33.0. The manufacturing workweek increased 0.3 to 39.8 hours. That is a good portent for an improvement in industrial production, although with overtime hours staying flat, it is clear business isn't booming.
    Payroll losses were reported across nearly every major category, with the exception of small increases in education and health services (+17K), leisure and hospitality (+9K) and government (+7K).
    1 out of every 6 workers over the age of 16 still lacks full-time employment.
    The number of discouraged workers was 796,000 in July, up by 335,000 over the past 12 months.

  • Keirsten

    Big- our RIMM short still looking good here this morning. 😉

  • fuw

    Maybe the report is read as US strengthening compared to Europe, hence dollar up. This would mean that the truth from last autumn – that the dollar goes up, stocks down on bad news – might be broken, and we are back to more normal times.

    I'm skeptical though.

  • bist

    Energy sold off a bit on weakness again. On the minute chart looks like all the financials are in consolidation mode ascending triangles. 60 min stochs are oversold on the financials somehow so I'm expecting more upside. But I'm not playing it just watching.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    But the Treasuries are still down a bit. So there's a divergence there with the dollar to make things interesting.

    I think tho that ES has to trade below 1001 (about 100.40 SPY) and stay there for a while in order to see any serious retrace of the morning gap. Looks like that isn't happening, the elevator for SPY is going up. 😉

  • Tronacate

    I shorted Canuck dollar last night…..working out ok

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    they do it on a regular basis, it is not a secret, they stated that in case if it is needed – that is what they will do, as of March 14th 2009
    I hope you are not making your trading decisions based on Karl's “IntellectiOnizm”

  • Keirsten

    A little trip to the Loonie bin, eh?

  • Douala

    LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL………. that was too funny ! +1

  • Tronacate

    Been Loonie since March……

  • Keirsten

    You're in good company then. 😉

  • fa_q

    I moved my short from 1010 to 1008. I'm now in at 1000 with 11 in my pocket.

  • trabuco

    Not to worry…

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Yea..

  • annamall

    Closed out SPY calls for 30% gain. still short EUR/USD

  • shortcover

    1010 target met

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    sell on 5 min qqqq

  • Tronacate

    S TF 567.8

  • TheMacroEconomist

    And the sellers come in, lol.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    looks like dollar equity inverse correlation link broken (for today)…fake out?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    oh poderoso dólar americano!

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • Keirsten

    1014 is .382 Fib fwiw

  • EDC

    It broke last summer too… July. this is what cause global capital imbalances. Greed of last hurah, so essentially investors still chase high risk assets but supply of money and credit is contracting.

    money floods out everywhere taking risk, meanwhile there is no fundemnetal reason for it too but to take risk with emotion.

    eventually the roosters come home to roost.

  • standard_and_poor

    Poner la pasta en el swiss franc.
     

    ________________________________

  • standard_and_poor

    Yesterday morning I stated to payas that if bulls were lucky the drop would end by late afternoon – so far so good, we're off to a good start.

    Pinup #3 playas, it's Angelina J. :
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YLl4oAUc7r4

    Where's my guest dj, munky balls?

  • trabuco

    Mejor Corona Noruega….

  • PeterK80

    I am short USO (via DTO) as it is clearly lagging with the strong dollar and is in a triangle formation. I'm looking for a clean break of 37.5 to the downside once the S&P starts to break down. Also short EWT… those are my only 2 positions at the moment.

  • tranchefoot

    i guess both the short dollar/long equities and the long dollar/short equities trades are over subscribed. fascinating.

  • billy_ray_valentine

    Nice call!, short EUR/USD as well.

  • Bankster

    Man, I am getting squeezed to death. I am near capitulation.

  • standard_and_poor

    Gracias Trabuco.
     

    ________________________________

  • Tronacate

    Is that an underhanded insult….lol 🙂

  • springheel_jack

    Hi Osso,

    On holiday for a couple of weeks so only checking in once or twice a day at the moment.

    FOMC then OPX before you know it. This market's almost ready to turn now though. USD looks like it already has.

  • fuw

    Yeah, lately I've started seeing GoldmanS boys lurking in the corners when I go and buy my coffee.

  • thelefteyeguy

    so income is falling but employment is rising….does this make sense?

    are they counting volunteering now as employment?

  • Osso

    hi SHJ…where were u ??? FOMC next week..mmmm….

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    today will be very telling – should we go down on a “good news” – that would be the best indication that rally is over…for now
    oh – we need not to forget to subtract number of college graduates caused spike back in June – I bet rate still going steady up if we do

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    LOL

  • Osso

    good point. Reason for USD strength.

  • Douala

    LOL +1 [my morning laugh..thanks]

  • blahblah2

    Actually, it does make sense and probably what needs to happen in the long run. The labor costs for all the countries have got to equalize. It would surprise me, though, if this is the real move yet for employment, though, but it does fit with what *has* to happen in the long-term, IMO.

  • shortcover

    right…key here is USD…

  • standard_and_poor

    Morning Playas, welcome to friday – International Playas Day.
    Put on your bowler hats, lets start with our theme song:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZgBWQ0eC5w

    This week we've lucky to have had a special guest DJ on loan from the Lincoln Park Zoo, none other than the notorious Mr. Brass Munky Balls. He'll joining us on this
    special day as well.

  • Iguanadon

    SPY ran above yesterdays high for a few minutes, but now back below it. Going to be an interesting first 30 minutes of the day.

  • Osso

    do rallies end on good news..???

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    Yes, we were right on Anna.

    We are so close to that interim top and turn though for USD & equities.

    There's still a bit more to come I think & then we're there. Monday/Tuesday latest but could be today.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Great report. (And S&P 1010 has been a line in the sand for me since late last year, on volume-by-price TA. We'll see if the resistance holds.)

    Probably we gap open near the ES high, then see if the high holds.

    Clearly the buck doesn't know what to make of this too-good report. First it hated it, then it liked it, then it hated it again and now maybe it likes it – putting oil and metals on the roller coaster.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    part timers, furlough, pay cuts

  • EDC

    I wouldn't say their arguments were “wrong” they just don't appear correct today.
    In the BLS data there are over 400 less people in the pool of eligible workers… That means with our population growth that we have less people in the workforce.

    remember the BLS is a survey, household phone call. nothing more or less. Rosies from canada has said that at minimum we need to creat 150k jobs a month just to keep in with the trend of demographics, anything less are job losses.

    Baby boomers are not leaving the workforce, it is not an argument, they have experienced three asset bubbles in less than 10 years.

  • Me_XMan

    Anyone still shorts here?

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    Not reliably. LOL.

  • Me_XMan

    Yes looking like a blowoff top coming today.

  • thelefteyeguy

    yeah Walmart wages for anyone!

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    if selloffs end on “so bad that and it will get worse” news – rally can do exactly opposite
    where u been?

  • Iguanadon

    Big brother is listening and if they hear someone say:

    “I'm going to WORK in the yard since I don't have a job and have the time”

    or

    “I'm going to the gym to WORK out and release some of these frustrations from being unemployed.”

    or

    “Damn, the toaster won't WORK any more… now I'm unemployed and can't make toast.”

    They count those folks as employed now.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Yup, watching the buck, that's what I'll be doin' …

  • standard_and_poor

    Let's dedicate this Kravitz tune to our own pin up girls, Annamall,Keirsten, Fujisan
    Douala and others:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVDbKvGukeU

  • standard_and_poor

    78% long coming into this morning- a nice 29 point pop in nasdaq.

    Let's go to Italy for our first pin up girl video.
    Monica Bellucci is the miracle drug:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qBhXM4gvUUs

  • jacksoo

    LOL

  • shortcover

    getting more short all the time…rather be short at 1000 than at 666, i'll tell you that!

  • thelefteyeguy

    …USD rising…

    OSSO could be right….have to see after 10:30…

  • jacksoo

    what do you expect, all the real jobs have long since gone off shore…

  • Guest

    U-6

    July 2008: 10.4%
    July 2009: 16.8%

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    current counts – I have no clue what I do when “counting”, but it makes me money
    http://screencast.com/t/sIkKKBRJz

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    nice pause of sanity old man 🙂

  • Cerebro82

    I reshorted and will hold til 38.2 retracement of the this entire bear market which is only a few points away. If this trade gets taken out, I will not trade again until there is overwhelming evidence that P2 is over. This is just too much work for so little reward. More bears will begin to feel like me (I'm probably one of the last ones to come to this conclusion), so a top might be getting close, there will be no one else to squeeze.

  • trabuco

    In case anyone is interested…here is a clear example of how the gov. is monetizing the debt…
    http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/130

  • jacksoo

    aah some real numbers…….

  • EDC

    Trin on tos is at ahem 19.0?

    is that possible?
    if it reverts to a normal market will we go way higher?

  • standard_and_poor

    LIZ and MWW, both in the portfolio are up big right now.

    Let's now go to Mexico for pinup # 2 – Sexy Araceli Arambula:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0rzw1Xo5j8

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    🙂 agreed!

  • TheMacroEconomist

    That's like that day last week where TRIN was putting out TICK around this time of day. 😉

    Not seeing real extremes on TICK. That last push to take on S&P 1010 again stalled out.

  • thelefteyeguy

    ben ben ben…you're setting up yourself to be the fall guy…

  • charles_smith

    Maybe the dollar is rising because “it's just time” (hat tip to Armstrong). There may be some irony here: the “good news” offers an excuse for the buck to rise which then kills off the equity rally.
    The other irony is this market has rallied hard on “less bad” for so long that “good news” might actually mark the top. The wall of worry just crumbled. Looks like a good day to do something else and then check in after the close. The dollar and the long bond will loom large.

  • EDC

    maybe we see a truncated 5th wave.

  • http://twitter.com/Scrillhog Scrillhog

    Went ahead w/ my plan to short gold (/YG) at 965.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    W5 down on 3min confirmed
    and 62% retrace of W2 down of UP wave puts qqq in 39.55

  • LegendC

    I am and it would be a lot more comfortable if it was from the top.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    covered 1/2 /nq short 1025 – 8pts+

  • http://www.aggressivelyuninformed.com nepharis

    Looks like we should fill most of this gap pretty soon… Shorted /NQ @ 1617, I'll cover at 1607 for 10 points… almost there…

  • Lordted

    Not falling as strongly as Wednesday or Thursday?…. Still not tested above 1010 so am scalping this

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    feeling lazy – covered all – total gain on 2 trades 28points /NQ – have a good day ladies and gents -I am not trading full time to work full time 🙂
    Thou I'll be bothering you during the day

  • LegendC

    Typical, just got knocked out

  • standard_and_poor

    Gracias Tio. : )

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Have a good day David! Keep annoying us yes, that will be good! 😉

  • http://twitter.com/Scrillhog Scrillhog

    Mole,
    Here's a bond traders view on the POMO buybacks…

    http://acrossthecurve.com/?p=7671

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    I went short EUR/USD earlier, if it breaks 142.50 watch out below! 🙂

    Also picked up some SPY calls when we dipped (wow) down to 1000 SPX.

    This is nuts dollar strong and equities strong Hmmmmmmm????

  • http://twitter.com/Scrillhog Scrillhog

    I was shorting but covered the other night like an idiot. Whenever I tinker with my trades is when I leave a bunch of $$$ on the table. Note to self: let winners run and just move stops.

  • trabuco

    Mejor sacar la pasta de USA porque pronto el dolar no va a valer ni mierda!

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    on what?
    BTW – did you see indicator I posted in reply to your auto fibs?

  • Me_XMan

    NONFARM PAYROLLS
    Briefing.com Updated August 7, 2009

    The headlines from the July report should warm the administration in Washington and they will engender confidence in the idea that the worst of the downturn is over.
    Notwithstanding the relative improvement in July, the labor market is still a troubled place. The difficulty in finding a new job is best reflected in the extension of the average duration of unemployment to 25.1 weeks from 24.5 weeks. This is the highest since records began in 1948. More alarmingly perhaps is that 1 out of every 3 unemployed workers has been unemployed for 27 weeks or longer.
    The July employment report has some encouraging characteristics, but at the end of the day there were still 247,000 jobs lost in July, bringing the total number of jobs lost since December 2007 to 6.7 million. There isn't a whole lot to cheer about there.
    Weekly claims for unemployment have to drop below 400,000 before payrolls will stabilize.
    Limited wage growth and declining payroll levels are a recipe for very poor consumer confidence and sluggish consumer spending.
    July nonfarm payrolls declined -247,000 (consensus -325K) while nonfarm payrolls for June (-443K) and May (-303K) were both revised slightly lower from their prior readings.
    The unemployment rate dipped to 9.4% (consensus 9.6%) from 9.5%.
    Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% (consensus 0.1%).
    The average workweek increased to 33.1 hours (consensus 33.0) from 33.0. The manufacturing workweek increased 0.3 to 39.8 hours. That is a good portent for an improvement in industrial production, although with overtime hours staying flat, it is clear business isn't booming.
    Payroll losses were reported across nearly every major category, with the exception of small increases in education and health services (+17K), leisure and hospitality (+9K) and government (+7K).
    1 out of every 6 workers over the age of 16 still lacks full-time employment.
    The number of discouraged workers was 796,000 in July, up by 335,000 over the past 12 months.

  • Keirsten

    Big- our RIMM short still looking good here this morning. 😉

  • fuw

    Maybe the report is read as US strengthening compared to Europe, hence dollar up. This would mean that the truth from last autumn – that the dollar goes up, stocks down on bad news – might be broken, and we are back to more normal times.

    I'm skeptical though.

  • http://spychart.net spycharter

    Energy sold off a bit on weakness again. On the minute chart looks like all the financials are in consolidation mode ascending triangles. 60 min stochs are oversold on the financials somehow so I'm expecting more upside. But I'm not playing it just watching.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    But the Treasuries are still down a bit. So there's a divergence there vs. the dollar to make things interesting.

    I think tho that ES has to trade below 1001 (about 100.40 SPY) and stay there for a while in order to see any serious retrace of the morning gap. Looks like that isn't happening, the elevator for SPY is going up. 😉

  • Tronacate

    I shorted Canuck dollar last night…..working out ok

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    they do it on a regular basis, it is not a secret, they stated that in case if it is needed – that is what they will do, as of March 14th 2009
    I hope you are not making your trading decisions based on Karl's “IntellectiOnizm”

  • Keirsten

    A little trip to the Loonie bin, eh?

  • Douala

    LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL………. that was too funny ! +1

  • Tronacate

    Been Loonie since March……

  • Keirsten

    You're in good company then. 😉

  • fa_q

    I moved my short from 1010 to 1008. I'm now in at 1000 with 11 in my pocket.

  • trabuco

    Not to worry…

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Yea..

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Closed out SPY calls for 30% gain. still short EUR/USD up 66 pips whooo hooooo!

  • shortcover

    1010 target met

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    sell on 5 min qqqq

  • Tronacate

    S TF 567.8

  • TheMacroEconomist

    And the sellers come in, lol.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    looks like dollar equity inverse correlation link broken (for today)…fake out?

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    oh poderoso dólar americano!

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • Keirsten

    1014 is .382 Fib fwiw

  • EDC

    It broke last summer too… July. this is what cause global capital imbalances. Greed of last hurah, so essentially investors still chase high risk assets but supply of money and credit is contracting.

    money floods out everywhere taking risk, meanwhile there is no fundemnetal reason for it too but to take risk with emotion.

    eventually the roosters come home to roost.

  • standard_and_poor

    Poner la pasta en el swiss franc.
     

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  • standard_and_poor

    Yesterday morning I stated to payas that if bulls were lucky the drop would end by late afternoon – so far so good, we're off to a good start.

    Pinup #3 playas, it's Angelina J. :
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YLl4oAUc7r4

    Where's my guest dj, munky balls?

  • trabuco

    Mejor Corona Noruega….

  • PeterK80

    I am short USO (via DTO) as it is clearly lagging with the strong dollar and is in a triangle formation. I'm looking for a clean break of 37.5 to the downside once the S&P starts to break down. Also short EWT… those are my only 2 positions at the moment.

  • tranchefoot

    i guess both the short dollar/long equities and the long dollar/short equities trades are over subscribed. fascinating.

  • billy_ray_valentine

    Nice call!, short EUR/USD as well.

  • Bankster

    Man, I am getting squeezed to death. I am near capitulation. Can't believe this. Rally with no retracement.

  • standard_and_poor

    Gracias Trabuco.
     

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  • Tronacate

    Is that an underhanded insult….lol 🙂

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    Hi Osso,

    On holiday for a couple of weeks so only checking in once or twice a day at the moment.

    FOMC then OPX before you know it. This market's almost ready to turn now though. USD looks like it already has.