Crucial Monday Morning Briefing
Equities continued their downward trajectory overnight and the E-Mini is now sitting on top of its daily NLSL plus the lower 100-hour Bollinger is offering temporary support. You may recall that I warned you guys about not getting too comfortable last week – this churn has gone on for months now and it’s natural to expect more of the same. Expect that we now have three failures to breach above 1880 and that is rather bearish.
On the chart I have pointed out today’s support levels – if we breach below then the proverbial $ht may just hit the fan. I want to be long until that happens but will quickly flip for a short position below 1860. I cannot overstate how important it is for the bulls to hold the 1860 mark this week – a dip below may quickly accelerate lower and herald in a new market phase. The last line of defense would again be the 100-day SMA near 1835 but I am not certain it would hold this time.
Crude looking like it wants to produce a short term floor. I will be long in a few hours from now if it holds that diagonal and once that one meets the 100-hour SMA.
Bond futures – the 30-year pretty solid here after last week’s FOMC madness. Long right now with a stop below 135’30.
That’s all for this morning – not many short term setups but they may become crucial ones and turn into long term positions. Looking back this may be remembered as an important week to get positioned. So roll up your sleeves, pay attention, and strike while the iron is hot. At the same time – don’t get excited and over exposed – play it by the script. If you don’t know what that is then you really ought to drop by more often.
That’s what I’m listening to this morning:
Have fun but keep it frosty.
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