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Crude Facts

by The MoleJanuary 4, 2019

I woke up this morning and the world had not yet descended into Sodom and Ghomorra. Which was a bit disappointing to me as I keep being promised doom and gloom in the financial MSM. Now look, I’m as guilty as the next guy (or gal – current year and all) when it comes to kicking up my adrenaline via a dose of infopørn at my favorite clickbait watering hole.

For one it does beat snorting crushed uppers along with my first cup of Kopi Luwak in the morning. Unfortunately it’s also a lot more addictive, plus it’s starting to show up in my monthly urine tests.

But in recent times the doom patrol has gotten completely out of hand. Don’t get me wrong, I enjoy being teased for a while but it’s been almost a year now and at some point someone’s got to deliver, even if it’s one of the late night rejects once the lights go on and everyone’s being told to GTFO.

Alright, let’s get serious for a moment. I know most of you guys are drooling at the chance of a market wipeout and it may surprise you to hear that I am not one of them. Maybe I’m starting to get soft at my advanced age but the thought of millions of Americans living in poverty and gangs of homeless digging through my trash to feed themselves does not bestow me with the same warm feelings of superiority it used to.

Let’s be clear on something: The period between 2009 and 2017 has been the most raging and profitable bull market in human history. At the same time it’s also been the most hated (for admittedly legitimate reasons), which perhaps explains why there appears to be so much lingering desire to see the world burn.

Count me out on that one, I may be evil (see blog theme) but my fire insurance doesn’t cover collective stupidity.

The situation we find ourselves in at the beginning of 2019 is a rather serious one. I just sent out an email to my intrepid VIXEN subs explaining why the damn thing hasn’t triggered for almost a month now.

Truth be told I’m glad it hasn’t as you don’t want to ever short IV in periods when the IVTS (shown above) continues to plot above the 1.0 mark for weeks on end. Which according to my records has not happened since the 2008 financial crisis.

It is difficult to remain an even keel in volatile times like this as the temptation is to swing for the fences by either going completely bear-tart or by robotically taking contrarian entries.

I did take a long entry as you know, but it came with much reservation full knowing that it was a low probability lottery ticket. Because trying to get a beat on this market is tantamount to nailing a curveball with a bent curtain rod.

Miraculously so far it’s survived the onslaught of daily drama and my ISL remains < ES 2400. If that one gets taken to the woodshed then we’re talking a completely new ballgame and it’s got plenty of claws and fangs in it. Let’s hope it won’t come to that.

Crude was an entry I featured to my subs the other day and it looks like it may be ready to play ball. I’m advancing my trail to b/e as soon as it touches the 1R mark which should be sometime today.

Here’s the LT panel which on the weekly (left) shows us two exhaustion gaps followed by a spike low. This is a common phenomenon I actually covered in the tape reading video series I produced last year. I haven’t put it up for sale at my new site yet but will make sure you guys get it at a special discount once I do.

The monthly has now produced a three point support cluster near the 40 mark, which I think has a decent chance of holding up but should it NOT then be prepared for a plunge to 35 or even lower.

Now if you happen to live in Europe then ask yourself why you’re still paying close to $6.50 per gallon of gasoline. Not even Californians are that stupid, and I should know as I used to be one 😉


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • TimeToPanic

    Its not evil to be anti usury, and as for the poor, they’ll always be with us.

    I’m out of my etf NQ shorts, tiny green amount, thanks to the Chicoms for their announcement on bank reserves overnight. Just going to sit with my put options, expecting a rally, but I’m sort of hedged now, mostly in cash.

  • rmwaddelljr

    Well, 1. It’s good to take a deep breath, clear thy head with fav beverage (actually I’ve learnt on this blog that to do nothing sometimes is like doing the best thing). 2. With all the buy/sell programs wielding massive amounts of $, the least sneeze or fart sends them pushing buttons which is why I forgo the technical and do #1 and see where the next tweet takes us:(.

  • Ted

    Well now, we have a sparkling jobs report. Tell me why the market is celebrating? This requires Powell to continue on his merry way. If we do not selloff today clearly the market doesn’t know what it wants. This post is in honor of the old, Bobby Low.

  • Jason13

    Great post Mole. I too have a lottery long, I’m hoping will pan out. I watched Zero quite intently all day yesterday and although buyers were scarce, sellers weren’t as large as headlines and media and as they were on Christmas Eve day (which was strong and decisive, capitulation?). Either way I go with what the tape gives me. I am bearish longer term but in my experience, the market wants to breed some complacency first. Mrs. Market never likes it when everyone gets on the same slide. My only caveat is that I’ve never seen politics play such a potential influential role in the tape as we’ve recently seen. That scares me.

  • Ted

    Agree and you answered my question below without realizing it, as you were typing prior to my post.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Great post Mole. I have a long. it’s red. but who’s counting?

    The ramp-n-camp LIVES.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/85db5844107d8924304709e10b1620a6172bde4b956a795486ab3bb7ba933cfc.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    SPX 17 handle rally, 2497

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    must be a wave.
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Off to the Dentist!

  • Jason13
  • Brishort

    SPX 2520. Previous high from Dec. 28 and Jan 2.

    Key level. Time to watch the TV show…. all is being played there….

  • Brishort

    Zero is backed to Zero. Thread carefully either side here.

  • Ted

    RUT has already broken out to the upside and has attained the 20sma.

  • maxcherry

    it’s in the ball park , there has never been a ZBT trigger on the tenth and final day

    !BINYBT
    this one uses the actual formula, ZBT doesn’t use unchanged issues

  • ridingwaves

    yummy….the death of the economy pundits got a little bee with itch slap….but traveling for business the last 2 weeks while everyone is drinking eggnog has been pretty darn easy…..

    ridingwaves catracho a day ago
    The phone replaced the PC, until something else comes along it’s the new mobile desktop….

    SFO is empty right now….

    where will the FAANG money find its way into the market….I like Oil and Biotech, small caps here…

  • maxcherry

    bought calls yesterday @ $4, spx 2500 strike, got out at 11, thought is was a good trade, now they’re 32 no 34

  • ridingwaves
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Was not able to access the blog this a.m SPX gaped up over my stop on remaining 1/2 position short so had to take myself out on open.and still made a small profit. The 1st 10 min candle closed above the downtrend line and above 2482 level posted so immediately went long. Now above daily 13 ema and 2506 level which is bullish I have a level at 2530 so could be a pullback
    JULIE

  • Sp00nman

    High yield debt on a tear higher today with a gap higher at the open. The 2530 level should be tough resistance but looks like very strong buying on good volume.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    2473 was my stop posted yesterday and they opened at 2474. Too much LOL!
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi SP I have a level at 2530 mentioned in post directly below

  • Sp00nman

    Yep, I think everyone and their mom is watching 2530 too. It’s the low that held through much of last year until the Fed rate hike in December.

  • ridingwaves
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Seems like the site was down between 10:42am EST and 10:54am EST – I was out but got the Hyperspin alerts. Can someone confirm?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    My hosting guys say that the node my VPS is on experienced a kernel panic and had to be recycled.

    Rough day for me today: I went to the gym and was about to hit the sauna. Saw people run out coughing their lungs out. Turns out there was a fucking chlorine gas leak and I actually caught one whiff of it. Still feeling a bit squeazy and I can only imagine how those poor bastards must be feeling. Anyway, I think I’m okay and probably got extremely lucky there today.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW nibbling on UNG will add above strong resistance @ 25.79 .. 5 ema approx 25.66
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief My husband worked for an electrical contractor who had a contract in a pulp mill in Oregon. There was a chlorine leak and they had to evacuate the surrounding area. Chlorine is bad news Chief
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    wow bad timing, I love a good sauna too…….read a good article on Dia Grocery chain and ECU bond purchase…the whole portfolio on that one purchase is now junk…

  • ridingwaves

    a spike like move is coming….crowded trade on shorting NG……a target for the taking…..

  • Jason13

    If I’m reading zero correctly, there was some strong selling as we approached 2530 (high 2526) but quickly dissipated and now reloading. 2530 may not present much resistance. We’ll see. I have a much higher target for this little run. Either way I’m out at end of day…just don’t trust weekend news. I can always jump back in on Sunday night.

  • BKXtoZERO

    L TVIX 63.2

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Jason 2560 – 2566 is now an initial target above 2530. Finger near sell button . Prefer not to hold over weekend
    JULIE

  • Jason13

    Lots of liquidity here (London close)….selling is coming in but still heavy buying too. Key battle here.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Going to take some profit long from this a.m.. Concur with Jason Big Battle here. Stop on remaining long 2494. Could be just short covering checking SPY volume
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    NASTY stuff.

    “At approximately 40–60 ppm, a toxic pneumonitis and/or acute pulmonary edema can develop…. Concentrations of about 400 ppm and beyond are generally fatal over 30 minutes, and at 1,000 ppm and above, fatality ensues within only a few minutes.”

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    back from the Dentist.
    glad you survived the open.

    HYG, a righteous canary. still chirping.

    “Never follow SPX into a dark alley at close, unless HYG is tagging along”
    -GG

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HYG&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p26165655637

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG They gaped up 1 point above my stop this a.m.so took myself out 1/2 position short. Made a little on the remaining 1/2 position but did great on the 1st position. All eyes on 2530
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ‘They’ sold a lot of puts yesterday. and now ‘They’ are closing them out at much cheaper prices.

    Like Mole said a few days ago, Bear Market’s are harder.
    😉

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG .. HYG An upper downtrend line from October high dead ahead matching SPX 2560 – 2566 targets SPX RSI @ 46 and could top at approx 50
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    My super secret squirrel chart.

    Price is back inside both envelopes. Hold nose & game on brothers.
    -GG

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    key word downtrend. it’s going to be tricky.
    we must be cautious.

  • Ted

    Asia will go hog wild Sunday night and our futures will be gaped up over that level. Today was a game changer medium term. IMHO

  • Ted
  • TimeToPanic

    Still a good trade.

  • TimeToPanic

    It’s like if you have a leaky radiator, just pump more water! Crazy Chicoms.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    do you have a lawn chair?
    😉

    FOMO – don’t let me down

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CFFVVo9usFY

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Ted There are some trend lines that will be coming into play shortly
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Also overbought 60 min … Again could be a pullback 2530
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • maxcherry
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    calls at 4$… Bully!

  • zzezzezz

    Shorting ES here for a quick scalp… 2500/VWAP touch would be nice…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Jason13

    I count three separate selling attempts today thus far that were met with bigger buying….typically will lead to short squeezing as a propulsion to higher tape. We’ll see.

  • Ted

    Unless Trump threatens China any pullbacks will be minor until we go much higher. Upside risk now outweighs downside risk for the time being. Oversold did not mean a thing going down. Overbought is not going to mean much going up.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    moving out of a 4 day camp.
    with day 4 being a headfake?

    yes, I expect a squeeze now!

  • ridingwaves

    ummm, I would say smart, a billion pissed off Chinese could cause a lot of damage internally….their learning all about banking from the London pigmen….the biggest fixers of all things finance in the world…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    Oot 62.5

  • Jason13

    That’s now my new policy…never hold over weekend. I cash out every Friday irregardless.

  • Jason13

    I haven’t seen zero this high on the green side since I became a subscriber.

  • maxcherry

    if they didn’t expire Monday i would have held, but then again, i wouldn’t have gotten them at $4

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Jason I also show three selling attempts but only one met with more buying. Using SPY 10 min chart. 30 min chart decreasing volume
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I think I see what you’re doing.
    Knowing your discipline, probably worth a shot.

    If the S&P squeezes, 44 won’t take long to show up.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TVIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p5116983760c

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX 21 ema approx 2541.60
    JULIE

  • Jason13

    Mind you I became a subscriber late 2018 so take that with a grain of salt 😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    2600.
    go big or go Home
    😉

  • TimeToPanic

    If you could see the redness of my puts, you’d be counting your blessings!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    2609 A very important level.Don’t count on it GG SPY volume not corroborating this move
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ok ok. I haven’t had coffee in 4 days.
    I love this stuff!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I wonder how Kudra’s doing?

    I wonder if he hedged?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    LOL! GG Do not drink coffee .. Had 2 cups my entire life YECCHH ! I love this stuff too !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Trust me, when you get snowed in, power out?
    you’ll drink it black without sugar if you get cold enough.
    LOL.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG .. Plenty of wood to burn in case of power outage at home .Office has generator .. Hot chocolate will be served . Yum !
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    had a nice Guatemala dark roast this morning, 5 cups, I’m an addict….

  • TimeToPanic

    Chicoms are like sheep, but I was being facetious about them (still am, heh).
    Its just can-kicking until the gold revaluation in a couple of years anyway.

  • ridingwaves

    your losing your edge TTP, Chinese are smarter than all of us folks, they have a plan….and they stick to it…..

    the real sheep are in Europe and the US….

  • Brishort

    Hello Jason, What is more interesting is the fact that there is a divergence on the 5 min and 1 min where the latest high was not followed by another zero high, then the zero started dropping.

    This indicates a short scalp could be contemplated.

    Happy 2019!

  • TimeToPanic

    I’m licking my lips folks.
    All of the major indices are getting very very close to re-testing the necklines on their 2018 head and shoulders patterns. NQ just 50 points away. So much supply trapped up above.

    Monday could be the day to re-load.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Brishort .. 10 min chart I have a MACD negative divergence. Also going up into a broken lower trend line and possibly pulling back at this trend line. Also overbought 60 and 10 min charts Also show SPY VWAP @ 250.31 just above a 38.2% retracement if a pullback occurs now Happy New Year Brishort
    JULIE

  • TimeToPanic

    It wasn’t their plan, it was the pigmen who opened up China. They were all living in shacks and working paddy fields until then.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Taking another stab at TVIX at 62.0

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Maybe the squeeze is done for today?
    Bear trap complete!
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a5c10e8183a990465bebcccf1d7cca9addaac0c9dd3e084a0cb15391db0a7051.png

    My last day of freedom. Freedom Friday!

    L8terz.

  • Brishort

    Hello Julie,

    Best wishes for the new year! One of my goals is to be as relevant as you when posting!

    I am torn between my new business launching and the daily market activities, hence my low level of participation.

    But always a pleasure to read you and I always make sure I read all your comments.

    thanks for all your posting and may 2019 be the year of all the pleasant surprises you did not expect you could have!

    Take care,
    Brishort

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thank You Brishort
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c04d202eb60e8e33ca6bb6969625e53de6312d0773f7d1b222928df724afe59b.png

    That’s what he’s talking about. We’ve seen better during the high days of the bull market but this is pretty good!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Taking remainder long off table .. SPX close to declining 21 ema… Like Jason do not want to hold over weekend. As stated in posts below SPY volume suspect
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    tax loss selling into a no bid market is not good for portfolio, corrections are good. Money managers see a 14.4 Fwrd PE on stocks and say that is not a bubble….and then they buy…..

  • BKXtoZERO

    as long as you weren’t snowed into the wilderness drinking your own piss I would call it a successful vacation! mine went pretty well too!

  • Ted

    Correct, a friend of mine used to work for Reuters years ago, he would concur.

  • TimeToPanic

    Massive medicinal and health benefits of coffee Julie, do some reading. A gift from God.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Update on the chlorine leak incident at my gym today:

    My wife checked me over (she does biomagnetism) and I seem to be okay, feeling less stressed now. This freaked the shit out of me as there was a woman who could not stop coughing and was red in the face. What’s worse is that nobody took it seriously! I told her husband that they should call an ambulance right away and they just stared at me.

    Frankly speaking it seems that Spaniards are completely irresponsible when it comes to shit like this or perhaps they just don’t take it seriously, maybe out of ignorance. I complained to the staff downstairs and again they just gave me empty looks – didn’t take me seriously.

    My gym buddy who was there whatsapped me later and told me that there was indeed a chlorine leak as the filter had broken and released everything into the spa area in one swoop. However he didn’t seem worried at all despite the fact that it even started to smell like chlorine downstairs in the dressing rooms. He’s actually a cop with policia municipal and didn’t feel compelled to report the incident to anyone. Can you guys even remotely imagine this happening in the U.S.? They would get their asses dragged through court for years!

    That’s the thing that keeps getting me here in Spain. I just don’t understand what makes these people tick and how they do business here. It seems like everyone is on remote control, trusts what they are told, and don’t take anything seriously.

    Same thing happened when I got hit by a car on my moto a year or so ago. The guy who was at fault didn’t seem worried at all and the cops let him drive home afterward. I never heard back from them or their insurance company whether or not I was okay despite the fact I walked off with a limp and had to visit the hospital.

    I just about had it with Spain. Time to come home. Very much looking forward moving back stateside late this year…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Focus on your trading.

  • Mark Shinnick

    She could die from something like that unless her immune system gets the calm it needs to keep from flooding her lungs.

  • zzezzezz

    SPY max pain for today is $247.50

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys SPY Close enough for Julie on a Friday .. Could and probably go up some more ..Out .. Checkout the SPY volume .. Everyone Have A Great Weekend
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/99c7e84a843e3a36ae7f03a5f3543c2c38e348213e308a5a16a0d8972c93f772.png

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    Glad you are okay. Toxins are everywhere. It definitely pays to be diligent about your health. I never let the management where I live ever spray for insects, just buy traps to put around. Far too dangerous for my health.

  • Jason13

    Stay well man…we need ya

  • Jason13

    You too Brishort

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief You mentioned too that it was very difficult seeing a doctor when needed.Never been to Europe and really have no intention of visiting Europe. My feet are planted in the Big Sky. Welcome back stateside Chief !
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yes, I looked this shit up online when I came back and it freaked me out. Incredible, this
    level of incompetence and ignorance would rarely happen in the U.S. If it does the place would be bankrupted in court.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    The right time to go was 10 years ago. I’m glad I saw it one more time before it went to the dogs. It’s changing rapidly now unfortunately and I would not recommend visiting at this current time unless drastic political changes are being implemented. I won’t say any more but I’m sure you can fill in the gaps.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Here across Europe people are incredibly ignorant about this stuff, the exception being perhaps Germany. Everywhere else they use toxic products and solvents without any concerns and after many conversations with locals I must say that people don’t seem to care at all. This is something I’m glad people have much more awareness about over in the U.S.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I had a run in w/ that issue…. when I was young and working in screen printing at a museum display shop I was cleaning a screen and used some bleach. It mixed with something else someone had dumped in the sink and this cloud of white gas started rising up. I knew it wasn’t good and started backing up….. the shop foreman saw this, grabbed me and cleared the whole place out quickly.

  • ridingwaves

    have one more buy bid at 10.95…SMLP current yield 20%…..was able to buy in 10’s with glee….pullback here is the hope….Ddiligence required…
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a3e32767ddcfb24b3dbf798be304756e6f0c0ba2ab6c6045277dffa2a4d1f58c.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief .. At the gym what about the people in their birthday suits in the locker room or shower. Me i would be running outside showing all !
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    QC tech for large composites mfture in 80’s, we were doing some unreal stuff, making sikorsky heli blades, floorboards for Boeing, a lot of Military spec stuff…..had a thermal runaway on chemicals being mixed by R&D, damn partying chem guys, the company was trying to squash the fire dept from heading out there, it was some bad juju, went up in vents and prevailing wind was west, strawberry fields all around it….

    I pulled the fire alarm to circumvent management, no videos back then…. They shut us down for a week…but never connected the 50 lb strawberrys with the implosion……I quit and wrote a song called the factory blues, sang it with 2 hot RandD chicks wearing glasses like Belushi and Ackroyd to management on going away party….needless to say, they were not impressed…

  • BKXtoZERO

    I play… we should jam…..

  • Mark Shinnick

    Short miners. Closed labu naked calls.

  • HD

    Has the P&F chart changed? Or is it still bearish 1851 target?

  • BKXtoZERO

    Out of TVIX small ding 61.6 from 62. No pullback…guess they are serious about this rally thing

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    2530 is the .382 of the Dec hit. 2580 is HWB

  • Jason13

    Just cashed out. Looks like I can pay for my wife’s dinner tonight ;)….thanks to everyone for their insights this week, thanks to Mole and his Zero…have a great weekend.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That’s actually what I did, hon. It started to smell downstairs in the dressing area and I grabbed my stuff and ran out without my shirt on – LOL 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    LOL 🙂

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    LOL! In the winter too Chief !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX A consolidation at 2520 support … Like Jason cashed out earlier going into the 21 ema volume diminishing.
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Phoenix Metro population 4.3 million (2016) …. Yipes! … 4.3 million magpies running around roasting in 115 degree heat in summer ! JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3ded8dfda1e05e377a6a4cb78e62e2d0ca71e9b46ee2e82c0ed22ed8cb7df686.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    You couldn’t handle it. Count your blessings Coug.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG LOL!
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG On a trip we were just outside Phoenix .. Black Canyon I think it was. I have never seen the sun like it was . It was huge and red ! It was in the late fall perhaps November. I will never forget seeing the sun like that. Just beautiful
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Yes, The winters are unbelievable. You just have to experience it.
    I’ll be looking for a Summer beach home/cottage eventually.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG In Montana on a clear night you can see the Northern Lights, That is awesome too . Summer beach home (California) ? Oregon Coast nicer and less expensive
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’ve seen the coast, spectacular. Loonie people though.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Cannon Beach and Seaside were the places we would go while living in Oregon . Manzanita – Neskowin – Gearhart Nice places.too. Oregon Coast nice moderate temps in summer. GG tremendous scenery and recreation. The Coast Range is very nice . Many nice rivers too
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Awesome sunsets GG .. I always liked the desert air
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    The people are environmental conscience … Liberal yes but open and friendly
    JULIE

  • VXXTrader

    Hey you gotta live somewhere

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX I closed my long today reasons (1) C = 0.618 A @ 2548 The declining 21 ema @ 2541 (2) resistance zone February and April lows (3) short term overbought STOCHS 8,1 Did not want to hold over weekend JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/759659ed499dc200070c775cb9fbbf3aef7465db72295cc6239939b3a7c18356.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    fair enough.
    RSI however is at 46.7
    you know what happens when it gets around 50?
    😉

  • TimeToPanic

    *if*

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    as a respected man around these parts once told me.
    “you have to learn to embrace risk. There is no way around it”.

    If Julie’s risk is too high, I can respect that. Her money, her rules.
    But you will never get far, without taking risk. That is the reward.

    https://www.fridgemagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/How-To-Embrace-Risk-In-Business-The-Easy-Way-1024×683.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Jason13

    Since Dec 24th the NYMO has moved up 181 points….is that a longer term bullish sign? And what if the ZBT gets over the magic .615? Things that make you go ummmmm…..

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, those pots next to anything flammable can be gotchas….not to mention the fumes. Get BZ doing the layup and don’t notice the too-fast stage B. You’ve done some cool stuff.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • TimeToPanic

    Back in October it didn’t reach the median line, then another plunge.

    New moon on Monday folks, sell it til the full moon (give or take a couple of days).

  • Jason13

    Suggests the next two weeks down for a double bottom?

  • Ladywandering

    How are you Mr. Evil?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    that’s Mole’s department.
    😉

  • Jason13

    Aw GG you’re a smart guy too…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    USO May buy a pullback to 9.87
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAC Strong resistance 26.35 Strong support 25.05
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Think ‘mean reversion’. That’s all I will say.

    a link to the Great Scott –
    https://evilspeculator.com/system-building-lessons-continued/

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG .. Can you believe this guy ! This takes the all time Who Done it !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Then there was Cleopatra and Lady Godiva claiming over 3,000 partners. LOL!
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    drug induced insanity. Bath Salts or something. not my area of expertise.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    yeah, middle eastern (ahem) dissatisfaction. Now you know the secret to all of those wars.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    this is where you try for a short.
    theoretically speaking.
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG IMO oil has more upside with the positive divergences RSI and MACD Target the declining 34 and or 55 ema.s Watch approx 10.80 and 11.10
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://www.id920696.sexyob.website felipekowalski

    sdsess 3+

  • http://www.id9517504.sexynkgs.website omaraameri

    ridingwaves yes but

  • http://www.id5567192.sexylwfu.website luckerg

    jason_whittaker why

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG $NYMOT has gone above 200 $VIX at 16 – 17 has been floor for previous two Bear Markets Lower Bollinger band at 17 and heading south Now below and rejected at mid line . SPX I see more upside perhaps 2560 – 2566 OR A = C @ 2617 I have a level 2616. Could go as high as C = 1.618 A @ 2725 I have a level 2724 BUT It could be it at the 21 ema That’s why I got out Friday near the top C = .618 A @ 2548. NOW observe the $VIX chart Now at approx 16% below it’s 10 ema where it could reverse. Does not have to go to lower Bollinger Band JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6519a98c7974037f380e896dbca1450de85222707b821ab13e0a3226871742b0.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG A little more to go down total Put Call Ratio. Above 1.20 bullish 0.80 and below bearish JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c429ae56c08518e8e0fc65d6947ecd995668416e5137052ee2472d924202207e.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    so.
    when the ratio hits 0.80, we will know that is the time to short.

    that would be also the time to exit longs.

    agree?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    It is a good indicator GG Yup ! Along with $NYMOT above 200 or $NYMO above 60 (if you prefer) and the $VIX chart above at 16% or more below it’s 10 ema AND SPX short term overbought ( overbought in a Bear Market is dangerous )
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    well, I’d say it’s a coin flip. works great in bull Markets.

    bear market’s? typically 1-4 days early. (rectangles)

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ca2609d3c31a8142a8b7876df5fe9fae7e9e06c6fd5ce188a5a5c8f7993b9231.png

    translation: throw it out, it’s going to hurt you.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    hey, shouldn’t grizz be able to answer all this stuff?
    beats typing. LOL.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG If your platform allows you … Place a 21 ema on the CCI (20) If not upload freestockcharts.com It is live trading and allows you to place moving averages on indicators. You will like this platform Also RSI(27) with a front tweighted moving average.of 6 You know about RSI(27) above 50 bullish and below 50 bearish GG perhaps we should delete our charts and comments as before . Too many lurkers
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    thanks, but I’m just not a CCI guy.

    will do.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    skip the carbine.

    go with the shotgun.
    LOL

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_6CBKUM9gk8

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    bah! always support with the second hand. and secure that hair woman!!
    😉

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG It was a quick draw .. He asked for my phone number ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Yeeeeeeeah. and where is your holster?

    that would make quite the commotion at Perkins!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    rsi 70. boring actually.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Gold bullish above 50 daily STOCHS 144 bearish below Chaiken OSC at extremes is uswful also
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EDITDaily STOCHS 144 bullish above 50 bearish below 50 Pullbacks should hold approx 60 144 STOCHS
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    just watch for the break higher. it will or it won’t.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7f67e87cc641f54a9438c24dc71f2a85e9b209d89f2b69e5c5b36d2dbe22e3e9.png
    edit: 4 or 5 years is a loong time to wait.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Good job on the monthly as I have not checked monthly chart A possible bullish ascending triangle developing
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    it would come to fruition, if a crisis of confidence occurs.
    Not only in the US political/Market structure, but Europe, Bit Coin, etc.
    and Hey, let’s not forget, the Bear market is upon us 10 crossed 50 weekly.
    ;-D

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Weekly chart also RSI (27) crossed below 50 and full STOCHS 50,3,3 went below 50 concurrently. One reason the bounce now is 50,3,3 is at 20 and SPX at weekly 200 sma
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Julie,
    this is a large chart https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1e40c53823667ae7da9886b6d4b5713490d248883d5064a6ed1d73284ffcd884.png for your eyes only.

    NYUD. missed the top by months? muwahaha.
    😉

    give it a plus one, and I will remove it.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Miss type 20 not 30
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Delete my gold chart too and the comment weekly rsi 27 and stochs 50,3,3 People do not need to know this Delete this comment too
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Delete this too Try a MACD 65,90,12
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    weekly or daily?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG All time frames bullish above centerline bearish below centerline I will present a chart $NYAD that you can delete also coming up new
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    $NYAD Weekly cumulative Goes below weekly 21 ema Caution. Goes below 55 ema get out. 21 crosses below 55 STAY OUT ! JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/88a2507a16dc8ac63dcf34a5478fa22ff21d298f5c965075012568747971f9e5.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    {yawn} – laterz.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Mee too GG have A Great Evening
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • TimeToPanic
  • TimeToPanic

    Took some digging (back to the previous day’s post) but I found it:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2eeed4dfb007261460f3bab992162007dc9a4a463233b3644351556bca778891.png

  • TimeToPanic
  • TimeToPanic

    EMA 140>EMA 80.
    Huge neckline/resistance just overhead.
    Target for the H&S is a long way down, and at the rising trendline from 2009 lows.
    New moon just passed, full moon in a couple of weeks.
    Don’t go full beartard (I tell myself), but I am loading some large puts on QQQ on Monday/Tuesday, will probably leg in. May stick the second leg on after a down day takes out the previous daily low.

    I do have a feeling a lot of money is going to change hands in these next 2 weeks.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6347ac207f94a447ed2c17a6aa906b6e27b9e558a9d59663269d9b7458c0991a.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    If you believe strongly in the Moon cycle.
    stick with a periodicity of 29.5 (30)
    😉

    [NDX]
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p9366955638c

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • TimeToPanic

    If you look at new/full moon highs/lows in the past year or so, it’s very regular indeed.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys SPX Possible Bull Trap dead ahead 2560 – 2566 if clears the 21 ema approx 2541
    JULIE