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Crude Talk
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Crude Talk

by The MoleJune 7, 2019

Crude is one of those commodities that you hear about a lot in the financial MSM but that most retail traders tend to ignore. Not surprisingly so as CL is a pretty big contract just like SI or NG. On the upside crude is actually fairly liquid unlike silver for example. So let’s do the math: Assuming you are sitting on a $100k trading account and given an initial stop loss (ISL) of 50 ticks the Evil Speculator futures risk calculator recommends a position size of merely 2 contracts.

Not surprisingly inexperienced traders often take on a lot more risk, not realizing the amount of leverage they are sitting on with contracts like crude, natgas, and (especially) silver, which can quickly lead to unanticipated but nasty losses. Remember that one single handle in crude represents a move $1000 and that crude on average moves 2.1 handles per day.

I always hear people bitch about day trading margin (which is ~$1000 per contract for crude – check with your broker) but quite frankly that’s completely irrelevant as you should never even get positioned to the point that margin becomes an issue. If you’re worried about margin you are over leveraged, it’s that simple.

Which is why I always recommend to keep your position sizing below the 1% mark. Except perhaps when trading certain options strategies due to remaining time value and volatility making it a big harder to calculate your exact risk exposure.

Anyway, I’m happy to report that my short campaign in crude was stopped out at 1.8R in profits. I had actually anticipated an earlier stop out and thus tightened up my trail. However price continued lower a bit further, touching the lower 100-day BB before jumping back higher and triggering my stop. Which brings us to this:

I’m now long crude with a stop < 50.47. WHY is that? Because the current formation does suggest a floor pattern and in combination with the lower BB touch we may be looking at a bounce.

But what if it fails? Well if stopped out I am actually planning to jump back in short as this would strongly change the dynamics here. A failure of the current daily spike low could easy launch a cascade of panic selling, especially if weak-handed over leveraged crude speculators are affected – see my intro above πŸ˜‰

Quite a bit more waiting below the fold. Please meet me in the lair:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • evilasevildoes

    thx mole

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    DAX : lagging US
    3 times repelled at the broken uptrend line
    See if it can get above it https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/aca75007798f0ed79ef8275edbdedbc75ac7bebdec6b69f9f86479fa30668c7c.png

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Gold 1340 key level
    Silver break confirmed..

  • zzezzezz

    Wait for it………..
    Hooooooooooooooooooold……..

  • BobbyLow

    I’ve always liked trading crude and just added a little more to my existing long via 3 X OILU. I wish I had the capital to trade /CL but with the wide stops that I need to use it would make me more uncomfortable than I want to be. I’m exposed to possible overnight gaps with 3X OILU that can go against me but it is what it is.

    On the subject of coulda, woulda, shoulda, I thought about carrying my long dow futures into the night but my back testing told me that I had less than a 50% chance of making more before I got stopped out by letting this day trade run beyond 4 PM. Well of course this one continued to run and is around 200 Points higher from where I closed it out. But again it’s all about probabilities I guess. I found that Friday’s can also be nasty on fast time frames so I’m not going to chase it here.

    It looks like you were correct about Bears getting croaked and losing their MOJO again. πŸ™‚

  • BobbyLow

    You long?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Dollar took a hit since I posted this – disappointing US jobs report.

  • zzezzezz
  • zzezzezz

    Short /ES small nibble @ 2870

  • zzezzezz

    Was getting ready to short /ES at the time of that post.
    Now I’m short a little bit of /ES @ 2870

  • zzezzezz

    VIX rising with the market….

  • BobbyLow

    I wanted to join you but then I remembered how much I suck at counter trend trades. πŸ™‚

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Perception of future risk. Does not necessarily mean we’re taking a dive.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    Damn that’s two rules going against me this morning so I’m left with the rationalization that “it’s better to wish you were in a trade than wish you weren’t.

    I also have to keep in mind that it’s the market’s job to make me want to abandon my rules.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    bots in charge

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Certainly you remember the ‘don’t think’ joking we did around here.

    Rules are just the first step. Win rate is the second.
    and Results are the 3rd.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ..aaaaand Tim Knight goes on a rant in 3…2…1…

    Mole, thanks for never being a whiner.
    As you’ve quipped before “You want to be right?, or do you want to make Coin?”

    3,000+

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Zimbabwe B!tchez.

    A lunch will be $50, and cars will be unaffordable.

  • HD

    I concur but if you’re going to be wrong be epically wrong. HWB down in flames…..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I had an old friend.
    “If you’re gonna drink the poison, gulp it down. Best to go quick!, LOL”

  • BobbyLow

    OK what’s HWB?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    HOttie with Body.

  • HD

    VIX opened 19 Monday IV 7.2% <= 2940. VIX is still crappy.

  • HD

    50% retrace

  • BobbyLow

    Half Way Back. Thanks.

  • HD

    better than 70% set up. nothing works all the time.

  • BobbyLow

    I don’t trust the VIX as an indicator for anything. Many years ago there was some truth in the numbers but Bots and Algos have changed that.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    LOL That was a great show.

  • BobbyLow

    Bit of a pull back in equities concurrent with a bid in oil. Interesting.

  • HD

    VWAP 2865

  • zzezzezz

    @molecool:disqus is it possible to display VWAP on the Zero charts?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    that’s fine.
    I guess you could say I’m getting lucky on a synthetic long of HYG..for now.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/26bb5d891579cf34957afd778d282dbe2730b7ab497df57f9bd70d00138d2303.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    changed my life. well, at least my underwear.
    πŸ˜‰

  • BobbyLow

    By Synthetic do you mean Options?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    no. a retail stock that occasionally acts as a HighYield in the oil sector. (wink)

  • HD

    I’ve never seen it work, at all, ever. Looking back you get a few aha’s but nothing predictive.

  • BobbyLow

    Nice.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    believe it or not, there’s a guy in Phoenix who has vinyl bullet holes on his door. Hilarious.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    10% luck, 20% skill

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bbPNVEB8O7E
    -ThugGerb

  • BKXtoZERO

    L TVIX 2R 21.85 for toooday, tight stop

  • zzezzezz

    Yeah, I might stop watching it. It seems to cloud my judgement.
    (quite possible that I’m not using it correctly, probably needs to be combined with many other factors/ratios to be useful)

  • zzezzezz

    This action is a bit unsettling… Shakeout @ 2900 perhaps?

  • Mark Shinnick

    drv now has no more signalling in my model.

  • BKXtoZERO

    VIX has series of higher(er) lows… kind of a divergence with this enthusiasm
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5d3d64b976d9b74d5935ff2995c8fd46a85c6dc7574c6c3127f988ac85e4883a.jpg

    .

  • BKXtoZERO

    I bought even more…. 6.38

  • zzezzezz

    If we drop to 2650 today, yes. πŸ˜‰

  • HD

    If your system says SPX will rally, selling /VX is a good trade. It pays better than /ES.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Range-wise, seems fine with very-nearby natural stop.

  • Darkthirty

    Are you not amused? BTFD!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    Considering all the revisions-We can probably assume May jobs was really less than 50k.

    Economy is fine.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    everything is fine. soft genocide on track.
    πŸ™

    https://www.trbimg.com/img-5a7257c3/turbine/la-me-homeless-overview-increase-20180131

    edit:
    “Two pounds of wheat for a day’s wages, and six pounds of barley for a day’s wages, and do not damage the oil and the wine!”

  • Darkthirty
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    fix the link prefix.

  • Darkthirty
  • Darkthirty

    Yes, Dear……

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    or I’ll make you clean the curtains!

  • Darkthirty

    Careful there, Bosco…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    YES! Thank you Dennis.

  • HD
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    What do you mean?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • zzezzezz

    Hmm, ok, maybe I’m missing something. That shows VWAP around 2873, but I have it as 2867…

    EDIT: fixed the numbers

  • Darkthirty
  • zzezzezz

    ohh, hmm, maybe because “my” VWAP includes pre-market (it starts at 6pm EST, as opposed to 9:30am EST like on the Zero)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    10 pt correction? Unpossible!

  • Cyd

    Banks not participating today Purchased FRC at 97.95 yesterday Out at 97.98 on a consolidation that could go either way Talk about a moon shot profit.If breaks out Monday will evaluate. Choose not to hold over weekend with the relative weakness BKX
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    High Yield reversals around the Holy grail MA.
    85% chance. Need to up my sample size.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/42a154d97db1c53caae45059f569f01e175676e95e704110f2302426f64aa2c7.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    The appetite for debt not evident diffused. Don’t you wonder how many more mom-and-pops are going to get wiped-out?

  • Darkthirty

    Monday exp ES option lotto ticket straddle. Extreme volatility with the mexico tariff games….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I truly don’t want to think about it.
    Zombie companies at best.

    AMZN is a Monopoly out of control IMHO.
    It’s a future of UberEats & Lyft honeymoons service industry.

  • zzezzezz

    +3 handles on my /ZC short. will hold it over the weekend.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Financials are the weak one. But yeah, why sit on a fence over the weekend?
    Money is hiding in Tech sector.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/45c0dcb969dc26c48375743589d5ff27650b33e55c792ff137ae57ee37df64fa.png

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    didn’t you hear? Russian/US near boat collision.
    WWW3 by next week.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Cyd

    Spike high in SLV today with volume You can see why we liquidated long position on Wednesday with the red candle showing distribution and yesterday’s gap up sold into.at the 89 ema The spike high today at the declining 144 ema Still like a pullback to 13.71
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/14286fa855db7e1978f0cf0196b804ba694e967b8db250a2eda841e1daed8801.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    Hi Cyd… Bad day for bookies if they had the Dow down today. Seems dumb that they bet on the market because you can already do that in this thing called the stock market. They should stick to sports betting.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I hope it’s a quick death. I don’t want to starve for weeks with fallout.

    https://youtu.be/VUdIUdouLv0?t=98

  • Cyd

    Hello BK It’s spread betting and it changes continually. What is important is the position at the opening of our market
    Cyd

  • BobbyLow

    Famous last words. “Well equities surely can’t go any higher” – I listened to that one for the past 10 years.

    I need to improve my day trading game. As a MOMO trader, sometimes I just have to hold my nose and pull the damned trigger instead of sitting on my hands after a big move. (Day trading is another thing from my “never say never again” department). The best thing about day trading is that I get to put most of my seed money back to bed every night and begin fresh the next day with a whole new deal.

    In the meantime, my one swing position in oil is perking up nicely and I might allow myself a small warm and fuzzy feeling for the weekend. πŸ™‚

  • BKXtoZERO

    I will stay with TDA…at least with them if my bet goes bad I don’t get my arms broken

  • Mark Shinnick

    …and all MIRV’d.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    This is exactly why I kept telling Julie to be careful with using the term ‘overbought’ (or oversold).

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Do they sell options on that?

  • Cyd

    Will this possible IH&S pattern be too obvious if it sets up this way ? The complex H&S pattern green line would now certainly catch the crowd off guard. If SPX does not consolidate here these are basically the only directions it can go if not higher from here. 2900 resistance now is key to the entire advance https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7e6d890e460aa39f43b96c8dfa46421cfebe2e1cdb85323f9d4dcbf8d0c113c2.png

    Cyd

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well, its a more interesting; appears most all the gaps and holes are filled….and ST objectives met.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    (GG clapping)

  • zzezzezz

    Full moon on the 17th. Looks like that’s where your green line starts. πŸ™‚

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    well, it certainly has the pullback to RSI 50 for support test. to it.

  • RoastBeeph

    Very pretty!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Now that she’s on vacation we can talk about her behind her back. Did you see her new haircut? Horrible!!!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Gonna print and frame it.

  • Cyd

    William O Neill of IBD days 4 – 7 of an attempted rally for a follow thru day are the most powerful.Today is day 4 Next week should be the tell. It’s possible IBD may issue today as a follow thru day if the volume is strong SPY volume has been decreasing each day of rally attempt.

    Cyd

  • BobbyLow

    Psychedelic man!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Absolutely.
    It’s so hard to get a good barber in MT.
    πŸ˜‰

    https://scstylecaster.files.wordpress.com/2015/04/half-shaved-hair-natalie-dormer.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    calm down with the Moon junk.
    πŸ˜‰
    However, the 18th is OpX Turnaround Tuesday!!!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ..words of a True Trader.

  • Cyd

    One thing about day trading you know where it’s going at the moment. Who knows where it will be in 2 days or even longer
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    all in favor say AYE?

    we have a Compendium. edit: and a Gartman Omen.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/aa77e3f277530afa8aa06ba1df4abe807f95d4669a5bbc5eed998c814c57f0c1.png

  • Darkthirty

    ZC in Indiana isn’t doing well. All the rain has leached the nitrogen out, have yellow shoots. Going to need more nitrogen. Anhydrous ammonia is made with NG. Interesting if that will come into play…

  • zzezzezz

    c’mon man! this “rally” started on the new moon. πŸ˜‰

  • BobbyLow

    Absolutely Cyd.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Shhhh. ‘ancient chinese deep secret’.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Cyd

    A little bit of time here Does anyone follow or know about absolute % price closing change.?

    You calculate the daily % change positive or negative and compute the 10 day moving average
    0.5% reflects extreme bull market complacency and warns of a pullback
    1.0% reflects bottom of correction in a bull market
    Readings above 1.5% indicates time to buy
    Bear markets can go to an extreme 2.0%

    Something to add to your toolbox. Using this with VIX can give you an edge
    Cyd

  • Darkthirty

    ES VWAP is 10 pts south of here….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Time Check

  • Cyd

    It’s warning of a real estate crash in you local area Going to need more than bookies and loan sharks . Do you know of any clergy ? lol it’s Friday
    Cyd

  • BKXtoZERO

    I am h h h….holding. Have a good weekend all.

  • BobbyLow

    You too BKX. Catch y’all later.

  • Cyd

    We watch the Utility index and it’s hinting of interest rate cuts. Strong advance since year beginning.The Utes are highly interest rate sensitive and sending a message of future rate cuts The index would not be going up if their expectation of further rate hikes were likely https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2e7b7e62c024dd52842d0c3bc01ea430dfe7b3c022032e85927e73100c01c43e.png

    Cyd

  • Cyd

    Thank you and you have a good weekend as well
    Cyd

  • BKXtoZERO

    My guess is more pain before cuts. The MKT is up. They can do it with talk to buy time. Pain…. Then cut. My totally free worthless opinion.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Same with trade rumors and deal. MKT down is pressure to make deal….MKT up is incentive to drive herder bargain. So nothing happened yet. MKT up gives room for more tough talks imho

  • Cyd

    The last 3 months have seen insider buying in utility stocks but one The lone wolf is Chesapeake Utilities Corp Symbol CPK Insiders are usually early
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    Julie has posted over 17,000 times. Would anyone mind if I caught up with her and posted 18,000 times this weekend.Yes a great blog and everyone have a good weekend
    Cyd

  • BKXtoZERO

    I think Mole would start charging you a nickle per post before you break 1000

  • Darkthirty

    dustinthewind

    6 hours ago
    remove
    link
    flag
    Actually the forecasts are from Armstrong Economics computer models and were from 2009 when the Dow was trading around the 7000 range. The models use a proprietary software to track both worldwide domestic and international capital flows and then using the largest databases on the planet make forecast WITHOUT any human intervention. These models are so good at forecasting not just financial markets but about anything including sunspot activity which effects weather patterns on earth which in turn effects crop output and if you trade commodities or are a large agri business, their forecasts are a must. Both Goldman and the CIA wanted the source code and actually Martin Armstrong was thrown in federal prison on contempt of court charges as he refused. Goldman wanted them of course in trading markets while the CIA wanted them for tracking capital flows and capital moving out of an area, country, trading block, etc. usually foretells an economic collapse and toppling of governments. Right up CIA’s alley as they wanted to use these along with the FED’s NY trading desks and the ESF, (attacking currencies) and the PPT, (attacking markets) to topple governments faster and the list is long and Venezuela is just a current example.
    Back in 2009 the models alerted worldwide clients that Europe was beginning to collapse and capital would eventually flee to dollars and dollar based assets especially the Dow. There were 5 forecasts and when each hit would follow a period of consolidation before moving higher. They were 21,000, 23,000 and 26,000 which the first three have of course been hit. The last two are 30,000 and eventually around 40,000. These forecasts were actually printed in Forbes at the time and the author made a joke of them claiming something to the effect that moving from around 7000 to 21,000 itself was completely absurd. They never did comment of the forecasts when the first three were hit. The models also forecast that this coming dollar strength would create a commodity bear market especially in gold, silver and crude. On June 13, 2011 the models alerted clients that the bottom was in on the Dow and this is when capital really started to flee Europe. Gold ended up falling from above $1900 to a low of one point around the $1100 range, silver from almost $50 to around $14 range and crude from around $150 to at one point in the low $20s. All commodities started to suffer and this caused worldwide commodity traders and especially banks with trading desks to see revenue drop and they all started to pull in the reins like JP Morgan. This is also when the Swiss central bank and many sovereign wealth funds started to load up on US equities especially Norway’s sovereign wealth fund. International capital flows have been seeking a safe haven and the central banks buying along with the wealth funds are seeking yield and also safe haven. This continues to this very day.
    A few years later when Draghi went to negative rates charging banks to park capital even more capital fled and banks there with US branches converted euro to dollars and parked at the FED or started to lend directly here. Others lent to each other or invested in emerging markets where yield was higher especially Turkey and of course these are all tanking now. Then in June of 2016 the models again alerted clients, (again based on capital flows) that if gold did not break the 1362 reversal level at July’s close this would indicate more capital is coming. Gold gold at 1361 and ended up dropping to around the $1100 handle and the dollar gained even more strength and the Dow and other US equity markets broke record after record. There was so much capital being converted from euros to dollars that this created a dollar shortage in foreign markets prompting the FED to ask all central banks to flood the system with dollars and treasuries to create dollar weakness and provide liquidity.
    The models forecast that Europe and many banks along with Japan, Australia and many emerging markets go south by 2021 and the coming worldwide recession, again forecasts by the models before anyone was talking about one) will push the above over the cliff. Draghi and the BOJ must print and buy the sovereign debt or defaults take place and rates skyrocket. This is collapsing the euro and eventually they will have to stop and this is when the shit hits the fan there. The firm just recently finished there worldwide conference in Rome with Nigel Farage as quest speaker and the place was packed by not only clients but also central bankers which most realize now the low or negative rates policy and QE has been one giant disaster. Most western based economies and central banks are still on this same path and they will end up like Europe and Japan where there are no bids for the debt and they must print and this will end also in disaster.
    Europe is very aware of what is happening and when see this in the fleeing of capital. The models about 3 to 4 weeks ago started to track huge flows in Europe moving from any type of government debt to private and also again into dollars and dollar based assets. Armstrong has said many times to dump almost all government debt and move to private assets which the models are tracking now. If sovereign debt defaults, you get nothing but with private you will end up with at least something. A good example of this is Denmark where last week a pool of bonds were auctioned off backed by private mortgages and investors bid up prices driving yields to negative as they are willing to take a hit on yield just to have collateral based debt. Same with capital moving into German bunds.
    The models called the bottom on the Dow on 12/26/2018 but warned of continued extreme volatility of course due to trade tensions and geopolitical events and as usual markets always respond with their typical knee jerk reaction. The Dow is still in a consolidation phase and could fall back lower before it exits this. Recently as mentioned above capital is moving into dollars, buying the Dow on the dips and now loading up on treasuries bidding up prices and collapsing yields. Last weeks treasury auction on Tuesday saw capital again bidding up prices and moving yields down even farther. The firm received calls from 4 European bond trading desks and all were completely sold out of 3 month treasury paper.
    The FED knows that if they start cutting rates capital will likely reverse and move out of treasuries just like in Europe and Japan where central banks have totally destroyed bond markets and eventually this will cause the US to have problems funding their day to day operations. It is the perception that the US is a safe haven and if these huge international capital flows feel the US is heading down the path of Europe and Japan, would you park capital here? Both the ECB and Japan thought that if they lowered rates that there would always be a demand for the sovereign debt. How wrong they were!
    The world knows the dollar is to strong and they need a unit of account to replace the currency. The IMF wants to use the SDR but all know how corrupt they are. The likely outcome is a new unit of account backed by a baskets of currencies which would be used to settle trade and eventually replace the dollar as per Armstrong. This will eventually weaken treasuries and the desire to own them and if the FED lowers rates now this will come sooner than later! Plus if they cut this means they are going to let public pensions go bust especially social security as already last years yield on asset return was only 2.8% far under what they need. Congress would have no choice but to raise the payroll taxes on both SS and medicare significantly reducing disposable income and then economic growth. Add the problem with state and local governments funding theirs and raising taxes also and you have more reduction in disposable income and more reduction in economic growth.
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    Replyreply

    Bam_Man

    4 hours ago
    A “basket” of negative-yielding currencies is still negative-yielding, and just as unfit for the purpose of settling international trade as the individual negative-yielding currencies are.
    play_arrow

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    yeah, I caught that. When stories and text get long like that. My BS meter goes off, as it becomes more entertainment that provable. Something for around the campfire. not much more for me.
    -GG

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m stilling waiting for those pajama pics. I’ve got a mind like a steel trap.
    πŸ˜‰

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yeah she’s a machine. Thanks for popping by. How did you find the blog?

  • Darkthirty

    Entertaining, but enough truth to keep reading…

  • Cyd

    An interesting chart depicting buy initiation and selling exhaustion at close.The +600 closing $TICK at the 2728 low shows initiation https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/746f9af3bc2d4ca319dfeca5b70f8221391c4cdde8d7eb97596e76399041d884.png . The two on the far left – 600 indicate exhaustion going into the final moment of trading
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    Hello Mole (Chief) I am Julie’s friend – trading and learning partner
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    Another quick chart as I have things to attend to $XLFADP Up and reclaiming it’s important 39 ema
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b2f15d7b433c9361d3885845c7701cab572dec23a06b23e61b7c3e224b526543.png

  • Cyd
  • Cyd

    Tomorrow we will know IBD weekend edition if they confirm today Friday day 4 of rally as a follow thru day. Appears from headline that they will. That will confirm new uptrend in https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/243ebd5f5098172e347607fedb40c6831727ed8fe519ddfd2e5917cc386a4c91.png progress If so we must watch the next few days as a major distribution day can create a problem
    Cyd

  • BKXtoZERO

    I am imagining the pillow fighting scene in Animal House…..

  • Cyd
  • Scott_CA

    Newbie here–ex-chemist trying to figure out this Wall St. thing, attracted to graphs and numbers, not yet ready to commit $ to join, hoping I’m not barging in. I can’t upload a shot of my relatively trivial spreadsheet (compared to what you guys do) , but it shows that since July 2017 the calculation described has had a 10 day MA max of .93% Jan 9, and a low of -1.16 Dec 24. So while the idea may hold, the triggers need some work.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    that’s on my good days.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Federal Express.
    In the 1980’s, I remember the growth explosion of this iconic company.
    However, Bloomberg did a hit piece in FEB 09, 2018. I put the title in the chart.

    I thought you rats might appreciate the triple Fibonacci Fan of zigzag moves.
    The last kiss goodbye (black arrows)
    The swan dive plunge and 60% retrace (blue arrow)
    The current situation (last blue arrow)
    Potential death knell (red lines)
    -GG

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e318d3e41b9994485f06b3d385db40ce233b50e344e3b5a0520c057dddc6a78a.png

    FedEx Corporation is expected* to report earnings on 06/25/2019 after market close. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending May 2019.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Any friend of Julie is a friend of mine. Welcome!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    and no, I did not read this article just out.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/07/amazon-fedex-end-shipping-contract-in-us.html

    Talk about confirmation bias! It’s war my friends.

    Vice President Rajesh Subramaniam should wake up and smell the Chai.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Cyd

    I was thinking about an important topic. Is there anyway to apply the Zero to the leading sector in a rally? XLK (technolgy) vastly outperformed SPX in the rally from December.Trading XLK in favor of SPX would have increased your returns.The applied Zero on XLK would have been exceptional. The laggards were XLE (energy) XLF(financial) XLB (basic materials) so trading them with Zero attachment would have produced less returns that trading the index SPX IMO The Zero on https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e64fb4798f892e79659b032215b2d34c2742ef198f0d9abd415d459c0da4c84d.png XLK would have been a real winner
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    IBD Weekend edition Uptrend confirmed with the NAZ.One of the three must confirm DOW SPX or NASDAQ
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    why 39?

    66 is a better fit.
    .and, I throw in a floor and ceiling, no charge.
    πŸ˜‰

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPXADP&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p97004418286

  • Scott_CA

    Cyd–Since you didn’t take the weekend ‘off’……
    The % daily change MA you mentioned Friday is helpful, doing something similar, did a little more work on it. 3 & 5 day MA work far better (10 day MA smooths too much), comes closer to the suggested parameters, but each issue is different because issue volatility is different, especially between indices and stocks. Buy/Sell values corresponding to drawdown tolerance can be adjusted by changing the # of smoothing days, and/or the % tolerable change, based on recentβ€”perhaps a year?– past history for that issue, and % change (volatility) StdDev. Bitcoin might be interesting and informative as a current worst case (most volatile), a total stock market index the best (least volatile).
    Philosophical Economics has lengthy relevant articles, and while their backtesting is against buy and hold, the arguments are valid…..
    http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2016/01/movingaverage/
    http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2016/01/gtt/

    And while I’m scribbling, Gold_Gerb asked about your 39 day EMA rather than 66. Philosophical Economics also addresses that issue in the /gtt article, about half way down, look for the graph with the roses….

    “.. optimizing the strategy is about finding the moving average period that brings the moving average as close as possible to the price, so that it maximally captures tradeable cyclical downturns, but without causing it to get so close to the price that it comes into contact with untradeable short-term price volatility.”

    In other words, as many trades, as much drawdown, etc. as you can stand. Robots can push to the limit, depending on their trading costs.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Welcome Newbie Scott_CA.
    Drop and give me 20.

    While you’re down there. Imbib these credes.

    https://a.disquscdn.com/uploads/mediaembed/images/3040/383/original.jpg?w=800&h

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Scott_CA

    ……17..18…19….20 : ) Made my Sunday afternoon. A perfect match for the rose graph posted earlier. Thank you!

    Some would beg to differ re: Rule #2…..
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-investors-discover-they-cant-ignore-politicians-anymore-2019-06-08?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

  • BobbyLow

    Looks like another gap up 22 on ES and 260 YM during the first 15 Minutes after the open. No equity position but it’s retraced a little. If it comes back in some more I might take a bite after the dust settles. Nice gap up on /CL too. Currently long OILU.

  • Cyd

    Warming up finally after several days of cold rain and sleet. Still just above freezing at night Long USO too as it reversed at our targets 10.70 – 10.80 and or 10.26 Mentioned to BKX to Zero now must compute our target. Possible 11.75 – 12.00 which is the upper gap window and declining 21 ema. There is also a resistance at this level. Will also watch at approx 11.50 the declining 13 ema and lower gap window

    Looking at MEOH on a bottoming fishing expedition. A bullish close tomorrow Monday above 42.60 could be the takeoff

    Julie called from a store in WY and her husband snatched the phone. She is not supposed to use phone or internet at all on vacation for three weeks Funny
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    A blonde and her phone are not soon parted. LOL.

    104 currently. Send me the pics, and I’ll thrown in some airline tickets.
    all your troubles will melt away. sun, Sun, SUN.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    /YM falling star.

    don’t think. don’t think. don’t think.
    but look at THAT RSI.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ef5ea7eac4a7e8ca072624bd27604db647032458849fcc8f3ac31ef7f27428f7.png

  • Cyd

    Better yet we play on a softball team. She plays second base and I play the outfield. There was a ground ball to 2nd and she charged it. The ball took a bad hop and hit her right in the mouth. She couldn’t talk for a week.She did lead the league in homers that summer and was named MVP

    Another one even better than compendium. We were at a party and she uttered the word pusilanimous (sp) Everyone looked at her WTF. She left the room for about 30 minutes

    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Darkthirty

    TOS killed off prophet charts……

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Mercy! I hope Julie didn’t loose any of her pretty veneers!
    how bad was it? did they use bandages?
    πŸ˜‰
    https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2018/12/07/09/7128566-6470779-image-m-3_1544174918556.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    NOoooooooo.
    I just noticed.
    I have a special place for them. I cut my teeth on an entire other platform.

  • Cyd

    It was just a big fat lip. She was more embarrassed about it than anything.She couldn’t talk very well The less I have ever seen her talk

    Cyd

  • BobbyLow

    These kind of Sunday night opening candles are pretty common GG. On a daily it looks one way and on a 15 Minute it looks another way. IMO, traders just faded the opening oversized gap and then some waited for the fade to slow down before going long again. FWIW, the opening peak was 26289 and I went long at 26134.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    thanks, it’s a 4 hr candle, and it hasn’t finished painting.

  • Cyd

    SPX cash we have Level 2’s at 2890 and 2905. The 21 sma upper bollinger band is 2906
    Cyd

  • Darkthirty

    Time to learn new tricks………

  • Cyd

    I better be careful. Julie has some things on me too. All in a day.s work and play
    Cyd

  • BobbyLow

    I use fairly wide stops and the longer the time frame of my chart, the wider stop I need to be able to sleep at night. This one of the main reasons I trade a faster chart.

  • Cyd
  • Cyd

    K Spike high shooting star at the 55 ema Short term overbought and MACD center line test from below and RSI at level where pullbacks can occurIf market goes up and K drops tomorrow that will reveal relative weakness and a shorting opportunity.

    There is more to this story. We receive correspondence from Prescience Capital Management. They are stock sleuths specializing in detecting fraud and shall I say accounting irregularities. Kellogg (K) has been scrutinized by them for anomalies and they have issued statements to this effect
    Have things to do so may check in later this evening
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7ba504d645a4f52d9468cdfbb96ba297b03a1e50b42ebdfbc43387bbb5cd40c2.png

  • zzezzezz

    Short another nibble /ES @ 2888.
    Covered /ZC short for a +7 point gain.

  • Darkthirty

    I’ve used that word in conjunction with cretin to induce fisticuffs….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Their stock has been on a diet.
    Wait till those high grain prices hit the Markets, and sales drop.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b3359418b98df0c20e384d8a25e6257b9be38f910c5dd42e21826ca775dbf81a.png

    limited upside. you can clearly see the line.

  • Darkthirty

    Yeah, that is kinda special, K?

  • Cyd

    Have a few minutes and another share.Julie and I follow reverse splits for short opportunities CTRV this previous week completed a 70 for 1 reverse split What a fall from grace and completely on the ropes. No Mon No Fun The dumpster. We have done exceptionally well shorting these fallen money pits to bankruptcy

    Only one reason for a reverse split so they don’t lose their NAZ listing. A NAZ delisting and move to OTC is Mortimer the Mortician come a knockin … !
    CYD https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1eea89830e91edf2982d36009f7fbbde9669b2bce666e24e51fb4db0dfcd5e98.png

  • Cyd
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Cyd

    Yes Mr GG It’s going to be a good one
    Cyd

  • Darkthirty

    What a jagoff! Pun intended…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    highly volatile.

    but certainly, a speculator can ‘see this one coming’ in the near future news.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    now *that’s* evil. I have my limits.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Cyd

    What’s really funny is when people find out that you make trades making money when a stock declines via shorting. They basically do not get it Totally confused except for a few in the know. We have even been called Un American.Our reply when is it Un American to make money you hypocrite
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    yeah, I may have done that once or twice. not any more.

    I did not know:
    Evil is ranked!!

    https://exploringyourmind.com/the-scale-of-evil-from-self-defense-to-psychopaths/

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Cyd

    A very interesting historical correlation of the Dollar comparing the U.S. Treasury 10 yr yield minus the German bond 10 year yield.Weekly chart if the CORR goes below 0.00 will be a divergence .The two diverging happens on occasion and perhaps now is one of such unusual occurrences Credit Tom Bowley of stockcharts

    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e92c9dd07ba6717aa1d692db24d178fcf1a844e47634546711aa956d41416a4a.png

  • Cyd

    This is fun Not only does Mole our Chieftan have one machine (Julie) to reign in But now two machines. Like Julie tv does not interest me at all lol!
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    that makes no sense at all. are you violating the one glass of wine rule?

  • Cyd

    No sir Perhaps a cold beer on a hot summer day That’s it for me.
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    ..you wouldn’t happen to be Australian would you?
    πŸ˜‰

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F0r3l8fqVbc

  • Cyd

    Have you seen where the e mini pulled back from 2890 which was a Level 2 posted 2905 is another.
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    yeah, but like I told Julie. not really interested in Level 2’s. Only 1’s.

    the gap has been closed. overnight awaits.

  • Cyd

    No heritage is English and Scottish No Aussie unless there was a milkman or mailman
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    Level 1
    2826.65
    2748.06
    2620.40
    If no new ATH these will be important on a decline

    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • zzezzezz

    Covered /ES @ 2883 for +5 point gain

  • Cyd

    We can calculate Level 1′.s for any stock or index. RSP is the equal weight for SPY. Julie’s computer we have USO and I have her lap top.She keeps great records and I will try to find.

    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    pictures are in the top folder.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Cyd

    When she comes back I will let her decide on that Her wedding picture is beautiful. She still is a hottie I just found some pics of her in Hawaii last year Wow ! I better not.We have never violated each others trust ever

    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Well, do me a favor – just delete her entire USO section.
    πŸ˜‰
    She obviously can’t read a (oil) chart. Grizz had to tell her about the next leg down. It’s sad really.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d834351087d14ffcd20ade094235d4b498f9cc2dd790479e3ccc9e9eef3ccd8c.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    it’s a good thing you’re there to keep her on track!!
    and to take one for the team on bad boyfriends.

  • zzezzezz

    Sure why not… Just for a bit of fun…
    Long /ES @ 2881.25
    Stop @ 2879.75

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Winner! Winner! chicken dinner.

  • Cyd

    A kegger that we went to when we were at the “U” The cops raided it and we had to run. Julie tripped on a sprinkler and was caught. I was caught too as I went back to help her.Never leave a friend behind as tits are forever lol1
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    I can’t wait for the movie.
    πŸ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Cyd

    I will tell one more. In high school a bunch of us went to the drive in. To save money three of us climbed in the trunk.A piece of the sweater one girl was wearing was sticking out of the trunk. The attendant called the police and we were caught on that They did not do anything and laughed and we had to pay the full price
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Alright. time for me to turn in.

    I bet Coug is going nuts. Probably fightin with Grizz.
    The Dopamine is a strong drug. No charts? No Wi-Fi?

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/590bb0d254392cf70aa9ec24e7811c00d7a7c987472e2b8936f50a731d92e2e7.png?w=800&h=188

  • Cyd

    You have a nice night and see you tomorrow
    Cyd

  • zzezzezz

    Sold /ES @ 2889.25 for +8 point gain

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    OMG – Trump on CNBC –

  • zzezzezz

    Short /ES nibble @ 2888

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    check than, bud

    CTRV in a non-shortable stock

    with 4mil market cap, volume of about 100k on most days and (up until now) below $1 share price – there is NO brokerage that will allow short position to be taken out… unless you are an accredited investor with million+ account at big institution… but then if you are – why bother with pos like this
    http://schrts.co/zvfhQAEK
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=_CTRV&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p67898724113