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Dam Is Holding Thus Far
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Dam Is Holding Thus Far

by The MoleAugust 13, 2009

10:21am EDT: Thus far that lower boundary and the speculative channel I drew is holding:

The bears will have to make a move right now and right here if they want to see an early rendition of Slide Into The Abyss, the new Wall Street play scheduled for later this fall. Full disclosure – I’m actually betting against the bears right now and am long the ES since 1001 – was sweating bullets there for a while. I know what a sacrilege but the risk/benefit ratio is worth the bad smell and negative karma.

11:06am EDT: Just exited my ES long at 1009.5 for an 8.5 point gain. I actually think we might bust higher here into 1014 or higher but I didn’t want to tempt fate. BTW, if you subscribed to my twitter notifications you’d have taken a ride along 😉


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • springheel_jack

    We might see a reversal here & I have to go out so I'm out for the time being.

    ES short stopped out at 1004.25 from 1014.25.

    EURUSD short opened 1.432, closed 1.429.

    Nice morning.

  • standard_and_poor

    Good morning rats.
    Continuing to hold 77% longs – steady and firm.

    “A hard rain's a gonna fall” by friends of Bob:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4sMSSm0x2A

  • PRSGuitars

    Nice trading jack!

  • molecool

    Nice play – you are done for today 😉

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    $ better turn soon!

  • annamall

    Great trades Jack, you going back into short EUR?

  • annamall

    I hear you Alpha!

  • fuzzygreysocks

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Jobless-claims-up

    <deep ghost voice>
    Don't listen to the media…
    They're a bunch of idiots…
    They feed you effed up “Seasonally Adjusted” numbers…
    Quarterly EPSs are not reported as “Seasonally Adjusted” EPSs…
    http://tinyurl.com/m2gg7u

  • springheel_jack

    After I get back.

  • Skates

    No shit otherwise mole and I are going to have to cut back on the brews at Oktoberfest this year!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    repost [posted as reply to TheCrowe question – got ambushed by “new post” again – Mole is one lean mean tireless machine!]

    shall 101.20+ materialize – my targets will be precisely in line with Kemel's (based on 38 or 62% retrace)
    Thou I've been screwed badly on July 12th due to very shallow retrace of ONLY 23%

    I'd love to have a more prolonged conversation with Kemel – I am really curious of details how he arrives at quite the same targets as my mechanical D-Wave version – his consistency is respectful and if so, he is one of the most precise and unbiased Ellitorians I've ever observed. (I stated my admiration with Mole's analysis before, so no need to praise him here 🙂

    I'm leaving till 2-3PM now
    trade well

  • Me_XMan

    Bears chickened out and market ramping up…

  • mmTesla

    Hello everybody!

  • marketmaker

    Yep.

    We're getting close to the top of the opening 30-minute range.

    If we break through it, chances are good we're going much higher.

  • standard_and_poor

    Will increase longs if we get a strong close above 2020 in nasdaq comp. this week.

  • Me_XMan

    If market closes higher than 1010, man another wave of shorts covering will take SPX to 1020-1030.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    if the $ keeps falling like this it will be so utterly worthless, that I'll gladly but Obama's picture on it!

  • http://www.aggressivelyuninformed.com nepharis

    Well, it looks like whoever put on the iron condors on Monday are doing pretty well in this chop… bah, one of these days I'll actually start making the right decisions =P

  • ropey

    not sure there are too many shorts – the short % interest dropped by a significant amount i think in a recent report….

  • GDII

    u have never been to THE blog? kemel is active over there. he is a big ew guy that i follow for a while.
    i think other than ew, he is also good at tax stuff. ~_*

  • shortcover

    adding to shorts…but contemplating rolling out my SSO aug covered call to give it some room…decisions!

  • charles_smith

    Holy Moly, Mole is long–what next, Luke agrees to “dream team” with Darth Vader?

  • Me_XMan

    Plenty of shorts drawing line in the sand at 1014 and above. Watch the Pro's at work next week I guess.

  • Me_XMan

    I'm hearing new US currency: Obamony

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    topping short term right here

  • biffermas

    Nice call, Mole. This see-saw action is making me bipolar.

  • annamall

    See you guys, I have had it, there is no sense in this tape and I need to recharge, I am off to the gym. Will chime in later, have a great day and kick ass you ugys. 🙂

  • ropey

    Seem to be getting 10 mins of chop then another round of program buying, ever sinc the low – getting a very distinct stairstep up..

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    Why why why the f**K I sold my long with only 4 point profit? Why?

  • ropey

    Look at the OI on the SPY, all the interest is around 100-101 – there is nothing above that. Same with Q's, 40 OI not seeing much above…
    Expect the market to settle around there for next friday.

  • Me_XMan

    Better than losing? I'm sure you've got burned before, right?

  • Me_XMan

    Mole is a Trader or trying to be….hehehehehe.

  • Keirsten

    Out of long scalps here. Hourlies look extended to me, but will wait to see how that auction goes and adapt accordingly. Everything looks like a stretched rubberband to me, so I'm skewed and need to keep the blinders on. G/L to all.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Take the profits you can get in this market.

  • molecool

    Ata-girl!

  • molecool

    Ah-ah! I saw that!!!

  • LegendC

    I need another shower this morning

  • Me_XMan

    OI usually is safe but it has proven wrong many times this year. Watch the chart for 3 white soldiers. We've got one yesterday. If we get another one today and close above 1010.50 then watch for Friday jam job to create another white stick. That should setup for one hell of a week next week. Shorts gotta stop bulls from painting 3 white soldiers chart. That's just my 2 cents.

  • TheCrowe

    Ever check out the max pain calculator? It was a bit off during last month's OPX ramp but it says:

    maxpain QQQQ ~ $38 (although 38 & 39 are virtually even)
    maxpain SPY ~ $98

    http://www.optionpain.com/MaxPain/Max-Pain-CBOE

    Cheers,
    Richard

  • TheSocionomist

    Some great long entry points there at 10AM! Amazing how fast headline sentiment shifts at MarketWatch as they rationalize: “Crude futures rise on upbeat economic data.” What lousy 8:30 retail sales report was that??? 😉

    So ES traded below yesterday's range – and now has been right back in it for over an hour.

    It could go all the way to test the pre-retail-sales-report highs. Then the critical resistance battle begins.

    We'll see…

  • Keirsten

    This girl doesn't mind taking the money, but I'm really disgusted right now, and need to step away so as to NOT give any of it back on a poor decision. What's that saying- some days you're the bug, some days you're the windshield? I don't plan to be the bug today for these MMs. 😉

  • GDII

    thank you, full time beachboy (for the entry only).
    i placed my stop at +4.25 just to make sure i beat u. lol

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    i wish i could be that disciplined!

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    I know man but i was expecting the move up. I really need to work on my exit points. my entry are better now.

    Thank you market for +4 points.

  • innatedc

    I'm thinking this will creep up til treasuries….which I think will go well and then markets correct down again….I closed all shorts for a better entry (except BAC- which I am fading that asshole Paulson (crook))…..

  • annamall

    I was just saying, I need a liquid lunch, why don't you and I meet up for some XXX-dirty martini's and XXX-guys! j/k heheheh

  • Duuuuuude

    Forming a potential inverted H&S right shoulder right now on /ES 1 minute chart. Could throw futures to 1021 if confirmed.

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    Biatch hehehehe good trade 😀

  • Keirsten

    Snort! 😀

  • Iguanadon

    I need another lobotomy this morning.

  • annamall

    😀

  • TheSocionomist

    Yesterday's 10-year auction went pretty well, given that it was right before FOMC. But no one was expecting a BIG surprise out of FOMC.

    Wouldn't it be funny if today's 30-year auction lays an egg? I don't think any of the bond traders are prepared for that. (Or perhaps they are but Bubblevision isn't reporting it, lol.)

  • ropey

    Hey i just scalped POT and managed to make enough for a big mac – i love working for small change lol

  • GDII

    so per mole's pomo setup, today shd be another big up day?
    mole, any updates on it?

  • http://www.aggressivelyuninformed.com nepharis

    …and they say there ain't no such thing as a free lunch!

  • Keirsten

    You should cross the border and buy it in the U.S.- it'll be cheaper down here! LOLOL

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    i have a feeling wave 3 down is about to start on the $BKX

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Goodie lol

  • marketmaker

    My macd(with 3,10,16 settings) is showing a nice divergence.

    http://img198.imageshack.us/i/20090813prophet.png/

    (This is my first-ever posting of a chart in an attempt at technical analysis. Hope I don't make a fool of myself.)

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    Here's a good read for after market.
    Financial Media Coup d’Etat
    http://wallstcheatsheet.com/?p=1228

  • PRSGuitars

    Nothing wrong with imageshack — but I've found screencast/Jing to be the best screencap tool (works on the desktop, too, of a mac or pc — amazing!).

    It also lets you focus (via arrows or boxes or text) the readers' attention on certain components of the chart — for example, why is this divergence significant? Where specifically is the divergence (i can find it, no worries, just saying — even better if you can be precise and/or offer commentary in the text of your post in bullet-point format about your chart)? etc

    Also, it's amazing how much better your trading will get when you focus on posting your rationale to a chart for others. Keep it up! It's great accountability, practice, etc. Happy to have you posting charts on the board too — Mole as of late hasn't been too pleased with the caliber of discussion in the forum, so it's up to people like you and I to step it up!

  • PRSGuitars

    http://screencast.com/t/SgmqqCdqz

    NOOO! NOOOOOOOO!!!

    I'm just ready to decapitate the next H&S I see.

  • TheSocionomist

    Thanks for the tip on Screencast, PRS! I was wondering if Screencast was the way to go for this.

  • onorio

    Could yesterday whipsaw be a flat? wave (b) of 2…

    http://www.screencast.com/t/horcPalWn

  • marketmaker

    Thanks for the encouragement, PRS.

    (I used to have a Taylor dreadnought acoustic, which I ended up having to sell. But I'm an even worse guitar player than I am a trader! LOL.)

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    i posted that same chart about 15 mins ago on another site, lol!
    so i'm in agreement!!!!

  • innatedc

    That would be awesome….

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    anyone looking for long scalps

    is breaking out

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • fuw

    Just FYI TRIN has started to trend up (ie bearish hint), from very low levels though. Doesn't have to mean anything, but good to keep an eye on.

    Its annoying that the dollar cannot pick a direction.

  • rhae

    SPY 30m and now let us Pray…. http://screencast.com/t/8n0AaeYje

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    i guess the alternative would be it was wave 4 and today we put in i and now putting in ii of 5, that would really suck

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    Looks bullish to me. Is that an inverse head and….oops I almost said one of the banned patterns! 😉

  • AS2009

    Which blog is that ?

  • TheSocionomist

    Yup the FOMC kept the exact same wording in place for the low Fed Funds rate and for the lack of commodity price pressures.

    In effect they'd like a cheap dollar and cheap commodities. Can't have both!

  • RagnarDanneskjöld

    “Sell at a tidy profit and pray that that was the worst trading mistake you ever made…”
    – (Last heard from) T.Sosnoff

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    Few chart updates guys,

    http://eminitrends.blogspot.com/2009/08/where-a

    Comments and critics are welcome.

  • RagnarDanneskjöld

    Same here, got stopped out of HRS shorts at the highest tick…

    I hate when that happens!

    – Insert Pick
    – Wave Up & Down…
    http://www.cerebromente.org.br/n02/historia/ice

  • Keirsten
  • springheel_jack

    Definitely prefer Onorio's count.

  • springheel_jack

    Nice clean cut at the neckline.

  • TwoJacks

    are we just marking time now waiting for that damned bond auction?

  • annamall

    Popping back in and yes, I think the bond auction will be an important event
    I hope it TANKS and no one touches it! LOL

    Still holding Spy puts. short EUR/USD

  • annamall

    Good job TW!

  • annamall

    Jethro, you know Jed is over on SOH 🙂

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Yes this turned my personal sentiment for the day. 🙁

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    :>( is right,

    my favorite of all time
    http://www.harmony-central.com/ProductImages/La

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    i don't like the way this is acting

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    Aren't you watching XXX? lol 😛

  • annamall

    Nice Chart Alpha I like to trade this stock, thanks 🙂

  • annamall

    Had my way with them! ;-D

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    Any dare devil going to short before Auction results?

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    Didn't know that. I'll have to see what my uncle is up to lately. Maybe he's still invested in bubblin' crude, oil that is, black gold, Texas tea.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    you only live once, i am

  • annamall

    I thought you might find that interesting! lol Maybe I should change mine to Ellie Mae (she was a lover of animals!)

  • Anonymous

    You guys… LOL, we’re gonna rally over 10k, wait and watch…. If you are short before mid september, you’re gonna go BK….

    Good luck

  • gannsecret

    Mole
    Update on my current forecast.
    Low tommorrow 8-14 or monday the latest
    Up to the 21st for a high.
    Bullish scenario; Market holds 990 for the next 2 days then up strong
    Taking out1018 VERY Bullish 1018 may turn out to be the high
    for this move up. Ganns square price and time (( 352 trading days from 10-11-2007 top to 3-6-2009 low))
    666 + 352 equals 1018 !!!!!
    Bearish scenario; market goes to 968 next few days, rallys to 21st stops at 1013 next leg down deeper

  • shortcover

    rather be short at 1010 than 666…

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    how do you pass up shorting this?????

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • LegendC

    Sitting SPY long with a stop a VWAP. What a wild ride today.

  • dollar

    Short Selling of S&P 500 Drops to Lowest Level Since February

    Short interest on the S&P 500 declined to 8.77 billion shares as of July 31, a 12 percent decrease from two weeks earlier, according to data compiled by U.S. exchanges and Bloomberg yesterday. That’s the steepest drop since Sept. 30. Investors reduced bearish bets on financial stocks the most, slashing them by 31 percent to 2.05 billion shares.

  • http://tradingperspective.blogspot.com perspective

    i wholeheartedly agree.

  • Keirsten

    GS. I won't mention the tiny little body part formation that's looming there.

    http://tinyurl.com/nthyym

  • Keirsten

    I thought it was You Only Live Twice? 😉

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    watch them take out stops on both sides before this settles on a direction

  • fuw

    I agree that it should go down. The question is if it WILL go down?

    I'm net short though, and I have also been putting some faith in that H-S.

  • springheel_jack

    Good entry coming right up by the look of it.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Auction went well, going up…

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    anyone trust this rally? i'm not convinced, haven't capitulated yet

  • shortcover

    we can't clear 9400 definitively then…need another airpocket at the close for this to work out…should be an interesting day.

  • Keirsten

    Keeping an eye on the dollar and Mole's chart from last night…..

  • LegendC

    Word, I have my 10% gain locked in though.

  • fuw

    The dollar hasn't folded in this spike, so I'm also vary.

  • bshah

    Is it possible, that GS and other traders who's got the free money, take adv of short squeeze and then short themselves at highest point..? Amazing, there are no reason/news needed to go up, but so many to go down this days..

  • springheel_jack

    Trust it? No.

    Think it might go higher? Yes.

    P/E ratios on SPX 140 and rising. Welcome to another bubble.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    NICE double tops on the NDX and SPX

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    added FAZ at 25.40

  • TheMacroEconomist

    We gotta make a run at those pre-AM highs of 1015 on the ES (1017 SPX) for the real test, imo. Then we either break thru the resistance or crash and burn on a double top.

    Problem is we've had 2 hours now with SPX around 1010 staring everyone in the face as a fair price.

  • Trick-Or-Trader

    Just shortered a 25% ES @1008.75. Will double it under 1005.50.

  • springheel_jack

    We just made it to 1013.8. That could be the HOD.

  • Tronacate

    Maybe a nice failed bullish H&S for once.

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Bought some puts on tlt…..getting creamed so far but the day is young.

  • TwoJacks

    can that be it. can the bears have the ball back now? please

  • Trick-Or-Trader

    There is no spoon.

  • TwoJacks

    that's right. I've been getting sporked for the last month and half. no spoon

  • Tronacate

    With the decrease in short interest…..it might be time for the big plunge…..not much left to squeeze.
    Maybe the big C? down starts sooner than expected.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    the auction's effect on the roof top

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • marketmaker

    I need help with something.

    Can someone please define “put option”?

    I googled it, but nothing came up.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    My TIP shares are going parabolicly up.

    (As parabolic as I ever seen them get.)

  • Trick-Or-Trader

    bears will get a chance to fumble the ball if they trade under 1002.25. otherwise, scalp 'em, if you got 'em.

  • springheel_jack

    There are no un-neutered bears!

  • Bankrupt

    try wikipedia

  • Keirsten

    Shooting star doji on the hourly

  • LegendC

    A put is a bet that a stock will go down, a call is a bet on it rising. Options consist of a direction, price and date.

  • springheel_jack

    It is an option, obviously.

    A put is an option to sell at a certain price, so it is a bet on the underlying security falling in value.

    A call is an option to buy at a certain price, so it is a bet on the underlying security rising in value.

  • Keirsten

    Here's a good resource for you 333.

    http://www.cboe.com/

  • ACJ

    shorts be VERY CAREFUL. On the Daily there is a pretty nice symmetrical pennant (almost textbook), tgt ~1160. Make sure you back out on your time frames periodically to make sure you are seeing the big picture. That is, if you believe in chart patterns.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    There are so many resistance lines from so many TA disciplines coming together around 1020 SPX, there could be a good ol' stops run if a confirmed breakthrough holds.

  • TwoJacks

    chimney. fvcking HI-larious. +1

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant
  • Bankrupt

    eurusd soaring, es containing the damage well..

  • St Deluise

    really? there's a good chance the market may go higher?

  • Trick-Or-Trader

    They foreclosed on that house 5 weeks ago.

  • springheel_jack

    Well, I'm with alphahorn.

    Short ES at 1008.25.

    Nice neg div on the zero.

  • marketmaker

    Uh…I was kidding, guys.

    I guess I'm not as funny as I thought!

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    i hope the obama buck doesn't ruin the party

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    but my gut is it's about to start wave 3

  • springheel_jack

    If we have to wait for Bill Bonner, Dan Amoss & James Turk to turn bullish, we really could be waiting a while.

  • Tronacate

    Very nice chart….thanks

  • http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com dreadwin

    Look at all the responses! I thought you were being sarcastic!

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    You are going to get whipped by Mole. He doesn't like comments about zero in public forum

  • fuw

    Yeah, saw that to. But the dollar needs to grow a pair if something is to happen.

  • PRSGuitars

    that scared me — i was like, oh no.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    it's advertising, now when the market goes down, everyone will know how great the zero is!

  • springheel_jack

    Thx. Makes sense. Used to get mentioned a lot though. I must have missed when that stopped.

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    Don’t be surprise if we get a rally here just like yesterday.

  • charles_smith

    The past few days are classic topping pattern– lots of fakes higher that fail. When everyone realizes the days of gains are over then everyone will head to the exit, only to find the herd can't fit through that tiny doorway.

    As “Dollar” pointed out below, short interest has tanked, so the rocket just ran out of fuel. (“Houston, we have a problem called gravity…”) As others have mentioned , Goldman Sachs et al. have every incentive to have assembled a stupendous short position in the past 8 days of chop/distribution. The trading guys/gals there must be LTAO to watch their last goosing-stocks-higher moves still pulling in marks before the big “surprise” dump.

    That so many are seeing potential for another leg up here is a contrarian indicator IMO.

  • springheel_jack

    Given back most of the gains now. What was that about?

    I'm short EURUSD from 1.429.

  • vidosole

    “Put option” – something very, very bad if you buy it just straight. (at least since March, that is the case here) Because of that you can not google it. Nobody wants to mess with this thing anymore. You better look for CALL option, and buy, buy, buy….No hedge anymore, no gravity, just the blue sky above us….

  • springheel_jack

    Barely enough shorts left to get a short-covering rally nowadays.

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock

    CPI fri—zero inflation–down goes gold, gld stcks,uso,etc, I'd imagine!

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    personally, i'd prefer so see wave iii of 1 of 3 (or C)

  • Tronacate

    I find all my info at http://www.cravenmorehead.org……try that site

  • fuw

    I dont think that anybody here will be surprised about a rally into the close for a very, VERY long time.

  • shortcover

    agreed…market feels like that moment on a roller coaster when the upside is over…and you've not fallen…just a 'pregnant pause' – the second derivative, if you will…

    if 9400 isn't breeched we may just get that H&S pattern to unfold.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    ES approaching VWAP on declining volume – looks like we will bounce even before we touch the VWAP .. bad for bears.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    It might just unfold this time ….

    since it didnt unfold last time, everyone would think that this time too it will resolve to upside..

  • Tronacate

    Only H&S…..that's the only reliable one

  • LegendC

    One more run at the new top?

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock

    SPY might finish today +0.20

  • Tronacate

    Zachly….

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock

    OPX expire, next week!

  • springheel_jack

    You really know you can depend on an H&S formation.

  • Iguanadon

    If the market can make smoke coming out of it, I'll be impressed. Or just use the steam coming out of my ears as I watch this insanity.

  • Tronacate

    Crude taking a dump

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Well I was wrong…

    If VWAP gets busted concusively.. we might see the morning lows again.. lets see. 30% short — 1/3rd in Aug; remaining in Sep puts

  • springheel_jack

    Looks like confirmation may well be coming this way.

    Hope so.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    I would not be surprised to see Fri.'s industrial production outperform. Will look at that tonight (maybe the prior month's number was too high).

    We got this interesting divergence going in the reports, with businesses seeing green shoots while consumers are grabbing for the red chutes.

    December gold ends up 0.4% at $956.60 an ounce.

  • springheel_jack

    LOL

  • springheel_jack

    LOL

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    why?

  • thunda72

    Just loaded up on more SPY calls on the touch of VWAP. Target is 102.03.

  • chilling

    Why is the $ spiking?

  • Trick-Or-Trader

    Taking one for the team! Covering 1008.75 shorts for 3 point winner. Not adding other half to shorts – will honor put position and assume paying “SPU GOD” is enough to get this party started.

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    LOL can you imagine? This is the material I have to come up with so I stay balanced.

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    Come on tank you piece of shit.

  • LegendC

    Stoped, dropped and rolled.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    fried or scrambled?????????

    college girls are selling their eggs for $s

  • springheel_jack

    I hope Lester got out at the top today. Aug calls won't wait.

    Don't think he's posted yet today. Still not a bad time to sell them IMO.

  • annamall

    Chilling (great avatar) on my indicators looks to me like a turn here and may lead the tape down toward EOD.

  • springheel_jack

    Not sure anyone here is really thinking that long term at the moment.

    You could try Sol at Xtrends?

  • BigBearz

    And we all know where “hope” can take us, do we not? YES WE CAN!!!!

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    I'm beyond my normal level of trading sanity.

  • rhae

    I quit thinking, seems to help a lot… just play your charts / system… don't even have the boob tube on today…

  • Offtimer

    Until the derivative ponzi game is eliminated all stocks are worthless. Their triillions of leverage wipes us out because nobody can deliver the trillions of marbles in payment on either side.

  • springheel_jack

    Looking good I think.

    I'm back in my EURUSD short at 1.429 & shorting ES from 1008.25.

    Go the bears! Let's see if we can break 1000 this time.

  • annamall

    USD looks to have bottomed and the tape looks to have topped.

  • annamall

    Me too, I was just thinking Jack

  • springheel_jack

    $ spiked & gave it all back.

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    Study for a couple of months, paper trade for a couple more — and then place ridiculously small bets until you're comfortable.

    There are all kinds of hilarious pranks market makers will play on you, like forcing you to take delivery of 500 SPY shares because the 5 calls you bought super cheap as a lottery ticket closed in the G.D. money by a couple of pennies but you thought you could just let them expire worthless. Because stupid you, you thought it was an *option* to buy the shares, not a *have to*. Then you wake up Monday morning and you notice your account is $40,000+ lighter (whether you have the money or not), and by the way, the value of those 500 SPY shares is plummeting as you watch in horror, imaging how you're going to explain this to your wife. So you immediately dump the shares in a panic, taking a haircut of a few hundy on top of option premium – not that much in the grand scheme of things but you're mentally devastated because somehow, you've managed to find a way to lose more than you bet.

    But I'm just speaking hypothetically, of course.

  • fuw

    Now can somebody just pick up the ball and run with it. Somebody with more cash than me.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    I hope he didn't panic and dump them at a loss near the open.

    Before yesterday's close I'd mentioned the strategy of going into a straddle with puts, to protect against downdraft and chop.

    If he sold the puts off today at 10 and then the calls at 11 he'd be well on his way to retirement. 😉

  • springheel_jack

    He went 50% long at 1013. Bad idea. Not to late to dump them. Hopefully he did it earlier when we reached 1013 again.

  • rhae

    Just make your own system… then you can Yak about it all you want…. I do not have Zero, but sure it is fine…

  • lester

    well here I am. I am still holding my Aug Calls. I should have exited, but that spike at 1:00 faked me into holding. I am “hoping” for a rally from here. I will close today for sure….

  • TheMacroEconomist

    What signal was he looking at? Yesterday's late tape at 1013 looked like a short signal to me.

  • chilling

    It is at 78.48 from low of 78.28 @13.40 eastern.

  • PRSGuitars

    I know what you mean. I'm so frustrated we seem to be unable to spill over — even more frustrated than I was when I literally SAW the perma-bid at 979 on /es when they announced GDP or somethng a few weeks back — we held there despite trying to crash through it for a few minutes, then reversed. What gives?

    Whining over, trading resume.

  • chilling

    I know you love cats!

  • Trick-Or-Trader

    You're Welcome.

  • onorio

    EUR is CRACKING! Hope SPX follow, and hope you`re right A.!

    So much hope :/

  • springheel_jack

    More likely to bomb out the rest of the day. Check alphahorn's chart below. Obviously these don't always play out, but most of the time they do.

    Next stop 990 I think.

    Might get an EOD spike here, but I wouldn't bet on it Lester.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Like what I am seeing – http://screencast.com/t/s3fG0ZP9

  • Bankrupt

    nice run we got here

    me likes honey

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    may be I was too tough on him…but guy has not method and no system – just madness

    As for market – I suspect they will be trying to pin SPY right UNDER 101.20 close till OPX

  • marketmaker

    $DXY making new high for the day.

  • springheel_jack

    At least roll them over to September calls Lester. I think you'd make money on those.

  • PRSGuitars

    it's brutal because the rally in pre-market didn't let anyone out… they always do this stuff (where they don't let reg. mkt hours people escape their positions, long or short –)

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Late days have been sell off – i also think we see SPX 990 today

  • annamall

    So far so good O! I have been short EUR for about an hour, and long SPY 100 puts allot longer! 🙂

  • lester

    no signal, I am beyond stupid

  • Tronacate

    Somebody yell FIRE for the real rush to the exits.

  • Iguanadon

    See if the indices can stay red now… Time for a 3% cliff dive. Please? Pretty please?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Lester – I missed your explanation “based on what you place your trades” 🙂

  • springheel_jack

    Lester wasn't looking at a signal. He was just watching posters talking about the probability of more upside from here.

    He bought Aug calls though. They could pay off, but more likely not.

  • marketmaker

    Wouldn't it be cool if we closed below 99.5 on SPY to give us a bearish engulfing candle?

    (I like saying bearish engulfing – it makes me feel smart.)

  • Molave Street Dwende

    H&Ss are the only thing that sock puppets can believe in – because, well, a head and shoulders is all they have themselves…

  • lester

    990 today? I will be stunned if that happens….

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Not at all. You just need a system with strategies and signals that put the odds in your favor.

    Doesn't mean you always win but you give it your best shot.

  • springheel_jack

    Agreed. More likely than not.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    added to my AAPL puts Aug and Oct

  • onorio

    Please let me say the “T” word….it`s been a while…

  • springheel_jack

    I think that's a real possibility.

  • Bankrupt

    out 1003,50

    didnt like the action and wanted to book some profits

  • shortcover

    it's all about the lows…if they take out today's lows it's lights out for a few days…interesting!

  • Huck

    Nice charts. Doubled my SRS position at 11.70 pre-market and I share your appreciation! SRS made some widows – I had a couple losing trades myself – but I still firmly believe that this is the big short opportunity of 2009.

  • lester

    see my post above, stupidity. entry based on Mole's Orange line. I am a horrendous trader and I have no explanation. I also have no explanation why I did not sell earlier….

  • de3600

    how much bullshit can these people shovel on cnbc it stinks in here

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    if this is a selloff, it really sucks.

    sold puts against the long put position I'm holding around 1003 to increase my delta

  • Tronacate

    Splashing at the dam……..

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    selloff? whats that? ohhh, the good ole days

  • Iguanadon

    I'll be happy if they wait til morning to gap down huge for an island reversal that was set up last week.

  • marketmaker

    From Denninger:

    “Colonial(Colonial BancGroup) is almost certainly done; my only shock is that the FDIC hasn't (yet) come in and seized that joint.”

    Guess it's time to buy some calls on it(ala BAC), huh?

  • annamall

    Yes I do I have one that looks just like your avatar. She is an Asian Bengal cat. So unreal! Love that face!!! 😀

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    just wave i, wait for iii, although it might not be until the gap down tomorrow

  • fuw

    To me it feels to orderly. We need fear and some velocity to get this going.

  • annamall

    I jumped out with 18 pips, but have jumped back in on Bounce.

  • springheel_jack

    Late day meltdown is a real possibility here Lester.

    Regardless, even if we don't see 990 today, we'll most likely see it tomorrow.

    You should seriously consider at least rolling these over to September.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    this is NOT the reason – do you UNDERSTAND how Mole calculates his targets?
    Otherwise it is what I said ( “You are piggybacking”) and I am asking Mole to ban you
    not because you bothering someone, but because you will end up really badly

  • lester

    you were tough, but I deserve the tough love….

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    If you can separate your opinions from your actions in the market then it's not whining.

    I just think a community of people are coming together who share the same opinion that everything going on around is synthetic. There is absolutely no substance to this rally.

  • lester

    I did roll a bunch to Sept (1/3)

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    QQQQ within next 5-15 min W2 corrective might possibly complete and flat W3 might start (not exceeding 40.14)

    http://screencast.com/t/Ob2P5Rt4

  • lester

    I am 1/3 Sept now, but I will likely sell those today too. No point in trying to be a hero and losing a boatload of money.

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • Tronacate

    Bears are still too skeered. Need the bulls to get scared with a non-bounce off the lows……they are WAYYYY too confident right now.

  • annamall

    Tape looks very weak here, and if the USD can hold on and start to strengthen we may get a EOD sell off that I was speaking of early this morning.

  • Offtimer

    The Dow has only 74 million shares trading, something is wrong in Denmark, or I smell a rat.

  • Bankrupt

    shorted 1006

  • shortcover

    that works for me…i'm seeing some di/di sell signals (cross overs) hitting, macD divergences…the fun is just getting started…

  • Tronacate

    Dollar might bounce here and squash this EOD bs

  • Tronacate

    Great minds think alike…..

  • Mr. Burns

    Have you read Dr. Brett's blog? Traderfeed.blogspot.com. Must read for every trader, and it's worth every second of time spent reading.

  • Tronacate

    Seems the jobs and retail numbers have the green shooters a bit mystified.

  • Tronacate

    Dollar looks ready to push up again……

  • Squidman

    Pooters all behaving now? Looking forward to the next video.

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    Yes, but it was painful to deal with. Wireless is still down so hardwired for the time being. Have to get a new router.

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock

    I had a signal at +0.20, but doesn't look that way now–

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    you have my email – please enlighten me 🙂

  • springheel_jack

    We'll know hell has frozen over when they turn bullish I think.

    I agree with you though, this rally doesn't look finished to me.

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    We'll know hell has frozen over when they turn bullish I think.

    I agree with you though, this rally doesn't look finished to me.