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Dangling By A Thread
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Dangling By A Thread

by The MoleJanuary 10, 2019

The Dollar has hit new 3-month lows after the Fed’s rather dovish minutes yesterday and not surprisingly that gave equities a much needed boost. Not a minute too late IMNSHO as they were just about to run out of steam. There has however been a bit of degradation which my open campaign has been able to survive. Thus far that is, as my trailing stop is dangling by a thread.

Thus far I’ve racked up 1.2R which isn’t too much to write home about. But even if stopped out at my trail I feel pretty confident about finding a new entry after a more extended correction. Which incidentally may be long or short – we shall see how things unfold.

Crude however is looking extremely positive and I’ve advanced my trail to about 1.8R near CLG9 50.50.

So I’m back in gold after doing an brilliant job of placing my stop right at the tail end of the the recent downward correction. My new entry is only a few ticks higher and my new ISL is the old ISL.

Let me be honest, this is a tough call to make for me psychologically but I’d be damned to let recency bias direct my decision making when it comes to picking my entries. After all had I not been long before I would pick this one every single time.

A more conservative route is to wait for a push > GCG9 1300 which effectively disqualifies the current retest variation sell (RTVS) pattern.

But wait – there is more! Please meet me in the lair 😉

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • TimeToPanic

    RSI support has not held.

    I heard this might be important somewhere, top secret.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/hAjmKVYC/

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD
  • maxcherry

    20 trading days out from ZBT trigger 01/07/19 spx was higher 9 out of 9

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/19cc2c81feae64e38c2c86e55b7021a3fb10c974517075723225a6fe57d4ff0e.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    I just very inconveniently discovered that while listing symbols realtime for trading, their order system does not recognize them unless Schwab enters them. Hello??? Furthermore, Schwab does not disclose this limitation to their real time environment.

  • Ted

    Powell speaks to the Economic Club of Washington at 12:45 EST, without published text and taking questions from a moderator. Vice Chair Clarida speaks to the Money Marketeers in New York at 17:30 EST, with a text and taking questions.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Gartman: “We are now of the mind… after having been manifestly and loudly bearish of the global stock markets and most particularly of the US stock market because the Fed had been removing the fuel from the markets and from the economy via its continued and material running off of its balance sheet… that stocks are headed a good deal higher; that the dollar is headed a good deal lower; that commodities… and especially gold… are headed demonstrably higher and that the great game has changed. We do not make this statement often, but Friday was a WATERSHED shift on the part of the Fed and a WATERSHED shift on our part.”

  • Jason13

    Excuse my ignorance but who is this Gartman fella….I’m Canadian, forgive me

  • Mark Shinnick
  • ridingwaves
  • Jason13

    So we fade him, right?

  • Wave_surfer

    Doubling down on his bullishness?
    That’s not good for the bullish case.

  • Ted

    He has actually been calling it correctly for a while now in stark contrast to the past.

  • Sp00nman

    Quiet in here today.. That pullback sure was weak. Looks like a lot of weak buying/short covering off the lows but lack of selling.

  • Ted

    Both the USD and the Australian dollar are on a roll against the Yen – Risk On!

  • Ted

    Pulling back now – lets see

  • ridingwaves

    ORLY-Starting to scale into short here with 351.15 as stop….298 target….love the momo divergence…weekly chart
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bfcb2a449c47e03ffbccb425de2495115bc761012aec145c265df18e0c295ff9.png

  • Ted

    What chart is this?

  • 1coin3lives

    I believe he’s a character from South Park.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Hang in there Bears
    JULIE

  • Jason13

    My guess is there’s a few short stops above yesterday’s high waiting to be plucked

  • TomW4

    Hanging but “dangling by a thread” too LOL!

  • BKXtoZERO

    I am in TVIX 54.6 yesterday small and added today but day only 54.3…. giving them a shot. I am also stuck in a crude short, small this time thankfully. First they got me (or I got myself is more like it) long, now I am wrong short so Crude has my number.

  • ridingwaves

    Oreilly auto parts….distribution at top here is my take….getting a little rich up here

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK USO may consolidate between it’s 55 and 21 ema’s forming an IH&S pattern
    JULIE

  • Jason13

    If you’re holding metals long….I’d be leery of Powell coming up. Could see that hourly double top come to fruition. I have no position here.

  • ridingwaves

    so your betting against the Mole on crude……danger lurks in you….
    the CL weekly and daily is butting up against resistance right here but if it jumps over it, trouble is coming for shorts….a run to 60 very much doable..

  • BKXtoZERO

    small position. watching closely

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Crude normal correction could go to 55 or less likely 63 (62 % retrace) – https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4ed2b1b218a3e709e148298192938410ed61da79d19a9b6b415a1aa7cc310209.png

  • Ted

    Powell wants to reduce the balance sheet – bye bye market

  • TimeToPanic

    Oil didn’t reach a low enough RSI (like the broad markets) recently, highly likely to retest the lows imminently. US dollar perking up, risk is getting offish again, slowly at first….then….

  • ridingwaves

    keep it tight…..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Today’s low the daily 5 ema. (2560) which is a level previously posted .. Loses that … Well bulls soup kitchen for lunch
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Words vs action has always been a problem.

  • TimeToPanic

    Selling either accelerates past today’s lows, or I reckon it’ll bounce tomorrow.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK USO must lose it’s lower channel trend line ; 5 ema and 21 ema. Could be tough esp with the bullish volume pattern and 5 ema above 21 ema with the 21 ema rising Again a possible IH&S Pattern could develop with a pullback to the 21 ema and support shown JULIEhttps://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c319ae21d17aa3f5961ad04d1a235d5875c4680a867a4c116fa18951c1438abb.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    TTP SPX has now gone below 60 min 8 ema and SPY VWAP
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    BDSI-weekly chart, momo strong, breakout close, a weekly and monthly breach of 4.20 would put daily target at 5.50 area possibly higher to 6 with overthrow…..

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/047e0df298c36dc4cb510436f7c568f831b4f653be5bdba63cfd70aa935a7c55.png

  • Ted

    Macy’s down nearly 19%. Julie didn’t shop there. LOL

  • TimeToPanic

    I saw something interesting on Twitter yesterday.

    A Martin Armstrong subscriber had shared a screen cap of his private blog. Whilst I don’t condone a subscriber doing that, I will take and share it with you guys with zero guilt.

    Next panic week is w/c 28th January, nothing much til then. Armstrong mentioned the Dow 24,000 level, then the 25,000 level as resistance. He pondered whether the move up continues into the end of next week, then a big crash for a couple of weeks? A directional change was shown on his array for w/c 21st Jan, with panic weeks 21st and 28th.

  • TimeToPanic

    Sure, but buyers are yet to turn into sellers, so it’s just floating around. Gives the boyz a chance to gap it up tomorrow IMO.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Ted .. LOL!
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    TTP There is still upside possibilities 2609 but going to be tough overbought and declining volume SPY along with $NYUD and $VIX charts shown previous thread
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    is that the guy who landed on the moon with the flag waiving behind him in the 60’s.

    so how do I trade on that?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW That was Neil Armstrong who was 1st man on the moon. Martin I believe is a second cousin by a 3rd wife’s sister in law’s youngest brother’s step son LOL!
    JULIE

  • TimeToPanic

    It could go higher than that. Your 8 ema etc won’t stop it.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    2597 going to be tough
    JULIE

  • maxcherry

    does anyone else think the bottom is in?

  • Brishort

    This current squeeze is squeezing even harder than the squeeze from this morning.
    The problem with such squeezes, is that they exhaust both sides.

    I am clearly unsure of anything in this market at the moment.
    Not seeing any reasons to buy at the moment and clearly the markets seems unable to go down without ripping 70 degrees angle rallies….

    All the hallmark of a market in trouble down the road… yet no easy way to find an entry point to trade bearish positions.

    Ascending trendline trading seems to be the only approach work for now.
    But I am not good at it unfortunately…. all my other indicators currently getting gamed by the market action…

  • Wave_surfer

    I think knowing the exact day at a strong decline will start and the exact day that a big, panic sell off, could be tradeable information.

    On the other hand…
    Martin Arthur Armstrong is an American self-taught economic forecaster who uses his own computer model based on pi. In 1999 Armstrong was convicted of fraudulently cheating investors out of $700 million and hiding $15 million in assets from regulators.
    If you want to learn more from him, his site is… https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/blog/

  • ridingwaves

    yikes…..no more Armstrong posts here…..he is one of the pigmen that use zeroedge to take money from the folks looking for trading help

    GS setup zeroedge

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    No Max IMO the bounce off 2346 is corrective i.e. 3 waves and more decline to come. A dead cat bounce
    JULIE

  • Wave_surfer

    While I still think a retest could be in the cards, I think the chances of that is less than 40% and shrinking.

  • ridingwaves

    easier to deal with this guy than the pigmen…
    go to 1:19 to start, even the ray taking off around that mark was on to that GW sneaking up

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yjAbCvv6mHk

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Brishort I have an upper trend line that will intersect price if an advance approx 2609 which 2609 is a level posted
    JULIE

  • Wave_surfer

    Knowing yourself and knowing when things are not clicking can be one of the most valuable skills to have as a trader. Maybe in a couple of days things will click for you again.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Reminder about short miners…

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Sure seems like a long and slow dead cat

  • ridingwaves

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-dumps-101-billion-dollar-085753166.html
    snip
    Russia Buys Quarter of World Yuan Reserves in Shift From Dollar

  • evilasevildoes

    jan 18 30 45 60 90 day week month convergence since Inauguration look at it on you date calendar that extrapolates dates in advance and past

  • Mark Shinnick

    One problem I have with it is short miners signal, implying $ strength, presumed bad for equities.

  • Wave_surfer

    You very well may be right.
    While there are some things that point to another powerful decline there are also a few things that indicate that a bottom may be in.
    I am glad that I am not at a place where I agree with all people all the time. That is a Very Dangerous place to be!
    I am glad that I have intelligent and skilled people like you to challenge my thoughts. 🙂

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ok. I’m baaaack.
    did anyone miss me?

    Julie, that loan is due – all of your bearish talk. it’s got to stop.
    NOW.
    ;-D

  • evilasevildoes

    I like him but I subscribe to his indepth stuff

    can make same calls loooking at pnfs though

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m not surprised.
    I told her to short all of those ladies stores.

  • Sp00nman

    Could be.. I don’t count that out. With that said, I’m just looking for a retrace/pullback, but everything’s been going straight up off the lows. I guess to some degree it’s expected since the market went straight down for about two weeks. The bounce has been very strong.

    I think someone said bear markets are hard to trade.. I can’t remember who said that..? 😉

    Edit: I like to use simple rules like the 80/140ema to gauge the market and its overall direction.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    {crickets}

    I’m from downtown, and I’m on a mission of mercy..

    The HYG pump is still set for ‘stun’.
    some would say…it’s Unnatural
    ask me if I got ran over by QE2.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4fb669ed912d6bbd49bdcb19035297c57d79d62f24cdd13659d2f844ae7aa10a.png

  • Ted

    Sideways chop. Going out food shopping now so I don’t do anything stupid in the next hour.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’ll have a cafe vanilla frap, with no Whip.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Well GG .. GVIP the “Hedgies” sold into the gap up on Tuesday and stalling at the 55 ema and 61.8% retracement. A bearish close below the daily 5 ema and “Hedgies’ are bailing out . “Hedgies very reluctant right now All 10,000 of em https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/df56da0f54d0c2dbda8657df1989b882dc2a848b1ddde065b20f14651570ccd3.png
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    yes, I was going to ask you about the Hedgies last evening. slipped my mind.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Also GG You can see the “HUGE” selling volume by the “Hedgies” into the gap up on Tuesday
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    yep. I also see Dec 01, month begin.
    jumped the ema(55) before barfing.
    expect the same tomorrow/Monday. (swag)

  • maxcherry

    dollar to me looks like it topped out, the rally the last few months ran out of steam just below the .61 retracement and the Fed has stopped raising rates

  • VXXTrader

    Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once in awhile…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    OH GG … Going to beat you to it on your favorite chart … Fan line matches 2597 level posted 2597 going to be very tough in reply to TTP below LOL! JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8a958f5404cae3c841ce464524f64acd8fea849b137c4f814a382aad0beee6a2.png

  • ridingwaves

    love PNF’s, one of best charts to use over last 6 years on longer term trends…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    mercy. I can take the next 45 min off.
    take the helm.
    he he.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, this isn’t looked at except as a model signal. If wrong then that $ local triple top looks to be in play.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Glad you’ve kept posting on this one.

  • evilasevildoes

    works on minute if you use reversal and dynamic (stockcharts)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys SPX If a breakout above 2597 going to watch 2609 and 2616
    JULIE

  • Jason13

    Throw over….love it.

  • StockTalker

    Go girl

  • evilasevildoes
  • evilasevildoes

    2604 above that 2633

  • Goldenbeachbum

    New to the group. Love the insight from all. IMO bottom is in for now, but not THE bottom. Especially with Fed on hold per Fed Fund futures and Powell walk back. Everyone waiting for pullback. Don’t need higher volume to generate upside, low volume creep very possible.

  • maxcherry

    i agree on the volume, i think THE top comes in 2020 if the spx get back on track seasonally, 2019 should trend higher

  • Ted

    On fumes IMHO

  • maxcherry

    another indicator flashing a possible bottom
    XLY:XLP discretionary to staples worked well in 2007-09 and also warned of a top in 0ct 2018

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d147bfc647d8ae8105e3f2158d295a27e39f2c29a4efb2e66a0d4d96d61dce78.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Jeez…food for the cognitive bias challenge:
    https://youtu.be/gjzeNBSZFUo

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Max A tall order .. Let’s see if $TRAN:$UTIL can breakout above relative resistance JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b32dc3e254f7bb7307e5415df871d2dac153c0fffd838dfac2bfd1284b01a19f.png

  • TimeToPanic

    He was convicted of nothing, except contempt of court, for refusing to give the vampire squid the code to his system. So they stitched him up. Did a long stretch for nothing. I admire the guy, his views are always interesting, mostly correct. He has to make a living, ZH is one way to market your services.

  • Wave_surfer

    Nice graph. Thanks for sharing.
    I also think that $SPX perfectly touching the 200 SMA on the Weekly is a bigger deal than it is getting press for.

    I am also wondering if a really strong spike in $NYMO is an indication that a powerful move up has a lot of momentum to it and it will take a while (weeks or months) before there will be much of a correction.

  • maxcherry

    $tran:$util doesn’t have a good record leading seems choppy at best

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/556ceba0ade2510ace035ae6d10c1e6b13eaf443e11e025277db4533943ab014.png

  • Goldenbeachbum

    VIX curve is beginning to normalize after weeks of inversion.
    http://vixcentral.com/

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    MAX This is most important of all IMO Banks relative to SPX Banks showing extreme weakness to SPX https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2ec292c49e97e65c07bc4e62937f94de091fdbe1b0d88fd09acad905cc6a618d.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    Lol…

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Nice to see someone has a sense of humor.

  • maxcherry

    if you follow the zweig breadth thrust is it

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    For a bottom to be in place $VIX must go below 16 to alleviate the innate fear associated with a bear market. In a bear market there is more fear on a relative basis compared to a bull market. The previous two bear markets $VIX at 16 was a floor. Again 1st clue of a market bottom then to new all time highs is for $VIX to break below 16
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Interesting that so many of you seem to base your trading on market projections offered by a person (Mike Armstrong) who does not trade for a living and incidentally has a horrible track record when it comes to making predictions. Peak oil anyone?

    Trading for a living on a long term basis cannot revolve around following a smørgasboard of your favorite echo chamber of opinions or predictions. And quite frankly one of our most basic tenets here at Evil Speculator is the fact that future outcome of price action CAN NOT BE PREDICTED. This essential lesson has been put forward here on over 4000 occasions over the past 10+ plus years.

    But unless I crack the whip here on a daily basis and in the process step on people’s feelings it seems that most retail traders cannot shake the very same itch that almost reflexively compels them to follow spurious (and recurrently false) predictions.

  • Wave_surfer

    oh, is that the ZBT that I was hearing about earlier?
    I see McClellan from the McClellan Oscillator wrote an article about ZBT
    https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/zweig_breadth_thrust_signal/
    I will look into the some. Thanks.

  • maxcherry

    yea stockcharts has the symbol !BINYBT below .40 to above .6250 in ten days is the signal, there were several 2009 2013 2015 all lead to much higher markets interesting enough none in the 1990’s or early 2000’s

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Max $SPXADP went to 70% a bullish thrust but that can be expected in a bear market rally. Bear market rallies can be quite strong enticing people to think that the bear is over then Whamo another steep decline
    JULIE

  • Wave_surfer

    I had not heard of him, so I had to look him up. So, I am not following him, if I have not heard of him. 🙂
    RidingWaves responded _very_ negatively.
    So, maybe not a lot of people here are following him. 🙂

    I agree with you so much on the inability to predict, sometimes I wonder why I should ever speak here at all and sometimes I don’t talk at all for a long time. The reason I wonder if I should just not speak at all, is because I am convinced price action can Not be predicted, so it feels like every post I make says, “It could go up. It could go down. I am undecided.” and I wonder if there is any value in any of my words.

    Over the years, you have cracked the whip in my face a few times. It stung a bit, but this is still the only place I go and the only community/forum I feel good at being at. I value and support your ‘basic tenents’

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Thanks for your candid response.

  • maxcherry

    the ZBT is different there have only been 10 since 1971 the last being jan 7th a year later the spx was higher 12% to 46%, killing many a p3 count, ask dan, i don’t think a bear market starts with short term rates at 3%

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief I do not follow any of the gurus. I read the tape along with price action and volume. I have many indicator charts like you (many of our charts are the same)
    JULIE

  • Wave_surfer

    I don’t say it much, but I really value the work you do and what you share with us.
    If you do shut this place down, I feel like my trading life would turn deafeningly silent since I don’t trust other communities and I don’t listen to the news. I would not hear your thoughts and I would miss out on the colorful characters that hang out in your virtual living room.

  • Wave_surfer

    I also really value the corrections you make to my thinking process! Hopefully, over the years, I am improving so that I spend less time in cognitive dissonances and depending on erroneous mental biases.
    It is not easy to purge our mind of all the wrong thinking, but it is critical for success. Thank you!

  • maxcherry

    unless its 1998 to 2000 when the vix never closed below 16 while the spx gained 68%

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Don’t get me wrong, there most definitely exist market inefficiencies and various phenomena that can be exploited. But the general point is that pointing at a chart and saying without doubt that the market is going in a particular direction becomes exponentially more ludicrous the further out you attempt to project.

    The best I have been able to do is to point at inflection point where an ongoing advance or decline has good odds of finding support or resistance. Consider that in contrast with making bearish calls while the market has continued to climb higher for five sessions in a row.

    Doesn’t mean it can’t happen, and if it does it didn’t happen because you made that call and is complete coincidence. Anyone who prides him/herself at predicting the future of price action is either fooling him/herself or is attempting to fool others.

    Anyway, so much for guys like Prechter or Armstrong. That’s all I’m going to say about this for the rest of this year but I think a stern reminder was warranted before people start blowing up their accounts.

  • BKXtoZERO

    You think the 20 area can hold here. I was looking at 2.0 Bollinger and usually vix hitting lower band is at least a good shot. You have been saying that it didn’t need to go to the lower band and that X % below has triggered pullbacks. Are you now expecting 16? Thanks

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’ll keep it going as long as sufficient people see value. Supporting the place via a sub helps of course – and that means you GoldGerb!!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    IF you recall my VIX chart from the other day: we are near the bottom range of ROC where we have seen bounces in the past year or so. Actually I think this was posted to the subs only so here it is:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/343a854746120ca7b57f2b239019972757a97da1305fbebcbbf7950ef2543045.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    Thank You Sir!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    No BK IMO $VIX can advance at anytime The % above and below it’s 10 ema is IMO crucial. It has attained the % below it’s 10 ema signalling that an advance can occur. Now Caution is warranted
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Has now fallen < the trend line. So this is going to be interesting and the title of yesterday's post was chosen intentionally:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c42ffdf8008f1652c2435d58c8aa604626e3e7000cef3ae9b8ad7de7d14ba5fe.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief Your ROC closely matches my % below it’s 10 ema We are on the same page Chief JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b4ebd6c37f8db0b42b056ca20434f555a227be292e629897eadb001ba1c1bddc.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You can put an EMA on a stationary series but IMO it’s not very useful. Bollingers are appropriate as they somewhat capture the RV of IV. I don’t see how an EMA of any configuration on the VIX would offer me valuable info. But perhaps show me a chart as I may be misunderstanding what you’re proposing.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief Chart above in a reply to you
    JULIE

  • Wave_surfer

    Speaking of which, I am hoping to transition to trading as a job instead of a hobby. When I make that transition then I may still be mostly a lurker, but I will no longer be a leech.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That’s a fine chart, except for the EMA in my opinion but hey, prove me wrong ;-P

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    FYI the only reason why PPO works is because it is driven by the relative delta of two MAs. And as you can see the effect is similar to what’s intended by the ROC.

    I hope this makes sense.

  • evilasevildoes

    Mole he doid trade for a living..but got swatted (jailed)

  • maxcherry

    here’s something on the vix
    avg 19.28 since 1990
    biggest gains in the spx is between 11 and 12 on the vix
    after 24 gains are limited

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ddbc832b8da29eafed65c681c128722cad4a4c157152242347792b9e127735fb.png

  • Sp00nman

    I completely agree Wave_surfer. I think that’s what makes trading so damn hard. Even when you’re “right” (as in made a winning trade), was it because your hypothesis was right (price action, indicator, etc) or some other reason? You can never be sure. Ultimately we go by results which give us a final outcome, but don’t tell the whole story. I read an article about it a while ago about Annie Duke’s (pro poker player) book. Here’s an article, I can’t find the original one I read: https://www.annieduke.com/how-to-make-the-right-decisions-even-when-you-dont-have-all-the-facts/

  • werewolf

    I still see too many people making predictions here….if not 2597 then 2604 then 2627…well yeah…and then maybe 2405 or 2675….it s all about probability…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Thank you.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Very true and that’s why trading is actually one of the most difficult acquired skills to learn. If you play the piano a false note stands out instantly, or if you hit the ball the wrong way in baseball or golf. In trading you only get forward feedback by losing and winning. And it’s NOT a binary activity that offers you immediate and clear feedback. The only way to KNOW if you have an edge is to keep trading an idea that has worked in the past and you hope will continue to work in the future.

    I could go into much more detail but I’m sure you guys get the gist of it.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Reload post as I made comment edits.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well, hurry the hell up! 😉

  • Jason13

    Would someone be willing to share what settings they use for Bollinger bands and the time frame they use them? I’ve never used them in my analysis but I’d like to.

  • Sp00nman

    For sure.. I’ve learned the hard way over the years. I personally have no problem with you cracking the whip, as I can guarantee you I have thick skin and my feelings won’t be hurt. Don’t think that a lot of us are blindly just following some folks on the internet when I/someone shares some “data” or opinion. I most certainly don’t follow anyone blindly, and I’d think most don’t either (here at least).

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I wouldn’t mind – see all my charts 😉

    Settings are only aspect of your personal lens. There is no right or wrong.

  • Jason13

    Actually, I tried to read yours, Mole but couldn’t see the numbers very well at all. Help me out?

  • Jason13

    Is it 2, 25?

  • TimeToPanic

    It was me who shared the Armstrong info chief. Give him a break, he’s forgotten more than most of us will ever know, but he maybe gets some stuff wrong, we all do.

    I do hope you’re not thinking I trade based off that? I just thought it was an interesting piece of info to share, but I know from past subscription with him that his array/system does have an uncanny ability to identify turns and panics.

    But I am short based on the year-long H&S pattern, nicely re-testing the necklines, plus a likelihood of a bottom re-test, oh, and the moon cycle!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • evilasevildoes

    he really just uses WD GANN and point and figure swear..all his bs about computers is questionable lol

    Regarding Peak oil ..It really was a concern in the 70’s I know cuz I was in the middle of it all and I knew guys behind it…It was a REALway to raise dough .(not that absolute real cuz Iran had shit loads) US and Britain and France and Germany and Italy all battled it out

    New Elephant fields were not coming in that fast and since Iran was locked down…it helped the industry flourish as far as getting the fields cheap in potential locations

    ..then seismic 3d and 4D and more data of where the hydrocarbons were was revealing
    ,,and it was a way to get the investments the whole industry needed to modernize
    the majors needed of course but in reality until they found the NEW Elephant fields ..It was a fact…that all changed with new technology..or secret….that the smartest used with the help of distribution by outsiders like Mark Rich

    the race was on
    New fields discovered

    now all price controlled …at the exchanges and whatever flavor du jour

  • Jason13

    Thanks Julie

  • evilasevildoes

    read King of Oil by Mark Rich….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Jason if you click the chart more legible
    JULIE

  • evilasevildoes

    I remember when you wee doing the Elliot stuff lol

  • evilasevildoes

    study Bullish percents by Thomas Dorsey…big tells

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    settings I use all three same chart
    21,2
    34,2.1
    55,2.5
    JULIE

  • evilasevildoes

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3064e0dabbbe31a0772a3f0c0621511888169359497f5bf38fc0c80b6b0f3f75.jpg

    by the way to get intraday info in bullish percents costs like 10 grand a month

    think about that…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EV Yipes !
    JULIE

  • evilasevildoes

    you familiar with $BPSPX ? (same with other indexes put a $BP inf ront of symbols)

  • evilasevildoes

    Vix trades are long gamma watch macro voices on potential BLOW UP

  • evilasevildoes

    Julie put 314 EMA on there and 777

    see how far it goes back

  • evilasevildoes
  • evilasevildoes
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yeah EV % of stocks buy signals PnF charts For the miners I use $BPGDM with an 8 ema
    JULIE

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Mole uses 25 and 100 period, I think simple moving average vs exponential, with a 2.0 deviation on each.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Update Chart:

    10 days ago..
    “from a short term tactical side, I’m still looking for a move back up to a median.”

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2b2b7d2bffd5615605daac862d51a299fa7c7d22c1ea87958b54ecf3c3612588.png
    snap backs are hard.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi GG Dinner is over dishes in dish washer. Typically V bottom reversals like we have the low is retested. Go back to February a V bottom reversal and it was retested in April. V bottoms usually too far too fast.and this one definitely not supported by volume.A bear market bottom also has a basing period I am not buying the dissertation that a bottom is in place. So the new norm is Bull Markets for almost 10 years and Bear Markets for two months. NOOOOO !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I stand alongside your comments.

    Learning from 2015. those double dips were Very convincing the bull was over.
    Even in Q2’2015, I was thinking okay, above the median, but it’s going to fail come election time.

    Oh, was I was wrong. Uncertainty of the Election was over, and off it ran.
    However, price is right, price was above median, and I had a very good run in 2017 because of it. edit: nose holding recommended for entry.

    Now, I spent over a year in 2017, watching various calls of bear in an obvious uptrend. I’m a patient gerb. So I apply said learnings to now.

    It’s a Bear Market until proven otherwise. The picture takes a very long time to paint out. Take it one week at a time. and remember – Laugh.

    -GG

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ps.
    Capital preservation over capital returns – is now in EFFECT.
    😉

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG SPX must get above it’s downtrend line shown in chart I will present Must get above it’s 233 ema and must stay above it’s 55 ema on pullbacks. Also the direction of the 233 ema must turn up The dump in February did not go below it’s 233 ema. There is no comparison to the decline in February to the present one occurring beginning of October. The February dump did not have the 55 and 233 ema’s crossover JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f4ae6cf531cc63d5522cff745444309417fab73f07d019987e304de07f523f43.png

  • HD

    don’t forget the 1851 prediction when SPX was trading 2370

  • HD

    B waves have been tricky for 10 years LOL

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    There are many many downtrend lines out there.
    one at a time. I agree, this time is different.
    However, I would refrain from words like ‘must’.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ugh, don’t you have a elk steak to attend to?
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I have 3 miles to kill, training for a marathon.
    L8ter.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi HD I have been nailing this entire market. The only thing I have missed is this week. Last Friday I closed my short position and did not re enter long
    JULIE

  • HD

    and a deer steak. Smoked a nice desert mule deer in the archery OTC 🙂

    The market is next. Still 2600, 2632 above, 2400 below. Longs are looking greedy here after a 10% run JMHO

  • BKXtoZERO

    You are EXTRA helpful today….. Are you in an extra good mood or something?

  • Ted

    Checkout the chart of the Hang Seng. Failure tonight near a downtrend line. Also looks like a right shoulder. Look at the daily. Sorry i can’t figure out how to get a chart from investing.com into here.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thanks Ted
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Bulls Getting down to do or die. SPX overbought ; declining volume SPY ; RSI trend line resistance ; MACD trend line resistance ; daily 34 ema ; fan line : strong price resistance Let’s see what you got “Bulls” JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4b8e536b79e9e7bb48883cc88b62010a96b0e73269407742c6fca002d80b7f47.png .

  • Wave_surfer

    2008 was a bear market and when it bottomed in March 6, 2009, it was an extreme V
    I remember this well because I lost a lot of money because I _knew_ that after a bear market, it would have to at least dip! ‘Dips’ were barely 4 hours. I remember because I watched it minute by minute for months.
    March 2009 was like hand writing model of the letter V
    We don’t talk about Elliott waves, but it was there I first learned that 2 of the more popular corrections were ‘sharps’ and ‘flats’
    Sharps are basically a V. Fast move down, fast move up. It is a basic shape of how many corrections are.
    The other type of correction is a flat, where it forms a double bottom.
    But they are BOTH popular.
    It was also taught that often sharps and flats alternate.
    The last correct that matches the size of the one we just had was a very obvious double bottom / flat / re-test or whatever else you would call it.
    That would indicate that the other correction of that size, would _probably_ be a sharp.
    This correction is matching the shape of a sharp, as I would expect from the last one that was an obvious flat.
    Ironically, you are convincing me that when a correction comes to this rocket up, it will probably be smaller than I think it will be and you are confirming why this correction, which is a ‘sharp’, is Done.

  • werewolf

    yet twice the SPX crossed the ema 233 since October and went to trade way above taking the shorts to the cleaners. What did that teach us? Nothing as shorts would have been cut at loss before the market turned at 2800. Then one would have gone probably long around 2630 only to get clean on the way down or position cut at a loss.

  • Ivan Hrusovsky
  • Jason13

    Yes, a strong possibility. Usually done in 3 waves however and not straight to it.

  • Sp00nman

    Good post wave_surfer and I think it’s a good reminder to all of us. Things don’t HAVE to do anything, and in this case, especially a double bottom. At the very least, I think a pullback is in order to suck in more bears, which will allow us to propel higher. Or, we go for a double bottom, but I’d definitely put those odds a lot lower now.

    The recent low in december had us VERY oversold on different indicators which is worth keeping in mind for the bears. Thus, it makes something like a V bottom more likely than had it just been a quick down move (few days).

    I also remember that bottom in 2009 and remember telling myself we have to come back down for a retest, and have a few mental scars from it. Thanks again for the post.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    When it crossed above the 233 ema twice since October what was the direction of the 233 ema — It was declining Big Clue Did SPX stay above the 55 ema – No
    JULIE

  • werewolf

    agreed but the very fact that ema is an average of price makes that obvious…When looking back it s very clear, but 1 it wasnt when it happned and 2 I would say that the pop to 2800 would have cleared the shorts twice on covering at a loss…So backtrading is always profitable and obvious#