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Do Nothing Week
173

Do Nothing Week

by The MoleAugust 12, 2019

We’re approaching the peak of a sweltering summer and according to seasonal statistics we are scheduled for a do-nothing week in equities. Whether or not the market will abide is another question but either way I’ve decided to take it a bit easy this week as I’m still in the process of recovering from a rogue thyroid. So I’ll be quick:

 

Stats say we’re in a sideways week followed by the fourth most bullish week of the year – again statistically speaking. A bullish week in August? Who knew? But as I’ve pointed out before – August can surprise to the upside but when it turns lower it really goes all in.

IV on the SPX option chain is predicting a 68% probability of a 24 handle move TODAY and a 47 handle a move in the next two sessions. Not exactly a quiet market this.

Once again our volume distribution panel nailed not only the low of the recent lows but also the obligatory shake out reversal. The bad news is: we are back stuck in the dreaded range below ES 2800.

Whipsaw galore since we ran out of buyers and my campaign in the E-Mini isn’t going anywhere fast – for now.

Not that I care too much as this point as it’s a) way too hot out there for me to care about anything but my beloved air conditioning and b) my stop is at break/even after a push to 1R MFE last week.

I’ll just say this though: If this thing turns back lower it’ll be a beauty to behold.

Gold seems to have weathered through a sideways correction and is now making a run toward its recent highs. I’m all for it as I still have a horse in the running here – my trail remains at 3.2R in profits. Almost got stopped out there overnight but unlike in the spoos last week I got lucky this time.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    Nothing to do but Hong Kong 🙁

  • phantomflash

    “The bad news is: we are back stuck in the dreaded range below ES 2800.” ??
    It seems there may be a typo in that number?

  • HD

    Mole, how many times has this week had a VIX >15? That’s useful data.

    Doubt it’s a do nothing week w a gap under 2900 to kick it off.

  • HD

    If I had Mole’s conviction about the weekly stats for SPY I’d be buying this zig zag with both hands. 3050 is the target for the bullish wave.

  • HD

    The fractals and FIBcontrol™ have been amazing with this volatility. Clean
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4a1406d45485562df31f904cc4f06729ab4f917c5462f2714797fdbd11f3ffc7.png

  • ridingwaves

    Good to be lucky….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    2906, can you *get* anymore on the fence than that??

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/be399dbd93d67dab00dfc1b263d1a6ac70e1b9ef2fbe22c3b5555166b378d252.jpg
    do nothing indeed.

  • HD

    starting the week w a sweet 10 handle bounce off fibs and symmetry. Above VWAP after 1st hour now.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    yeah yeah, show me tomorrow – today.
    and I’ll be impressed.
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    FOSL,
    good luck Julie on your claw procedure today.

    https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=FOSL

  • HD

    I trade it in real time. Posted the price pattern and time right before the pop. 2929 is still a Fibonacci pivot if you wanted Friday’s short set up.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    well, there ya go.
    I trade it via snail mail.
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ..for those into kinky pitch forks. no time to post deliciously evil woman.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dfa2bc0d4faea25a5f941e1f0e2d76815e647021dc172847debc118efe1af057.jpg

  • ridingwaves

    we might see 2810-2790 soon….

  • BKXtoZERO

    “Trying” a bond short, TLT, via TMV 10.9, on weakening RSI heading toward last weeks high

  • BKXtoZERO

    Is that from “The Creature from the Black Lagoon” ?

  • BKXtoZERO

    Long some DUST here, 6.72, NUGT looking tired, topping tails/neg RSI

  • ridingwaves

    so your shorting the 2 sectors that big money is piling into because of sell off fear?
    getting in the way of gold could lead to disaster right now, lucky u are trying just shorting miners….1700 is coming….1900 not out of question…

  • BKXtoZERO

    I am in a lot of TVIX at 18.4 so it is a hedge, I do think bonds will be the focal point of the next disaster though… maybe not yet, but the end. Also, these are smaller daily sized positions.

  • ridingwaves

    treasuries could go negative, seems like they might do it just to counter China Yuan moves…..thus why gold is in good spot, dollar high is not good for bankers…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    that move down from 32 was just plain old vicious and mean…..how dare they….anyone caught shorting was tortured and butterflied…..thrown out of the back of steak house because they were burnt

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Yes, it was brutal, and rare. I almost consider it a matching book-end to the 2016 up move.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    2899, this is like watching paint dry.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I get it…purely a short term hedge this week if stocks bounce back

  • HD

    If sellers hold this under 2900 much longer there’s a good chance it sells to the next fib level.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    Something about Hong Kong and fears red MAGA hats won’t be shipped in time. That’s the rumor at least.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    reminds me when Greece had a little flare up. Lots of news drama, with very little actual GDP impact on the Euro. Life went on.

  • Darkthirty

    2855 spx. Yet there still appears to be a gap on spx in the 2760 range

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    That’s right. When is Greece supposed to implode?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    it’s been nearly a DECADE, and I lost track.
    ZH spoke of it last year.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-24/greece-economic-crisis-declared-over-it-isnt

  • Darkthirty

    Go to a weekly chart, smooths everything out..

  • ridingwaves

    TDS has fully infected u I see….lay off CNN…

  • BKXtoZERO

    I watched Fight Club last night…. How far we have come as males since that movie. All down hill….new lows.

  • HD

    Ha. It’s a joke. You know about hats made in Hong Kong.

  • HD

    What is TDS?

  • HD

    Agree. Great movie.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    Buy some TVIX

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    LOL. there’s other ways to bleed.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    Out of TMV bond short… 0.20 loss on small position… DUST looks promising and TVIX is a tiger by the tail. /NG heading down to my evil target area. Evil plans going well.

  • BKXtoZERO

    See you at 30

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    Sellers in control. -25 more handles.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    might be a trend day.
    😉

  • BKXtoZERO

    No.. MAAM!!! TVIX looking pretty spiffy, heading to the good restaurant today

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a5f6ef91545c01f7dd7592e8c6e8d44fb96627964a3f1e8d0a6e803f8180d444.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Don’t count your curry until it’s cooked.
    -Sathya Sai Baba

  • BobbyLow

    BTW, not a big fan of curry don’t like the taste at all. LOL

  • HD

    OPEX week. Big down day in the books. TAT on deck.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Took tvix off 21.2 for now (18.4 to 21.2) (he he he)

  • Darkthirty

    Orange Man Bad

  • HD

    Maybe he meant STD, also a trump joke.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    me neither. stinks up the house.
    😉

  • Darkthirty

    Me either, indian food can wait til I have no teeth

  • Darkthirty

    VD is nothing to clap about!

  • BobbyLow

    LOL

  • BKXtoZERO

    Nor do I…. I like almost everything else though.

  • BKXtoZERO

    You guys are all piling on! One rule of Fight Club is one guy one fight at a time.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    why not a trailing stop or limit stop…what if it breaks lose to your 28 here?

  • Darkthirty

    I didn’t say anything months! It doesn’t confront me, if I don’t have to belly up to the table, but was just agreeing with the consensus.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I expected ST bounce I can go right back in. Tough call. Not that I am counting but looks B lowish to me here.

  • BobbyLow

    The comments down below about Greece brought back a few memories of the extreme volatility and the fear of the end of the financial world as we knew it during the Greece Bail Out and fear of the demise of the EURO a few years ago. It seemed like everyday there was either a dump or a rally depending on whether there was going to be an additional bailout or not. Havent heard a thing about Greece for a few years now but it stirred the pot until the next peril came into play.

    Just think of how boring the markets would be if we didn’t constantly have some potential calamity upon the horizon. Traders would have nothing to do. 🙂

  • Darkthirty

    Bet she’s got Marty Feldman eyes!

  • ridingwaves

    but it was just back in the news…the poor Greeks were promised a new deal and tearing up austerity by last PM, he had to suffer at the hand of the German creditors and EU to reneg and take a third bailout…..

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-48902766

  • ridingwaves

    momo still not overbought on VIX, puts might be the play this opex week for the big boys

  • BKXtoZERO

    Just kidding dude.

  • ridingwaves

    but your dust deal is working, miners falling with rest of stocks….gold not so much…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty
  • HD

    Ha. I knew that joke could flare up.

  • BKXtoZERO

    They trade too…probably reset and reload

  • HD

    We have a short attention span. US was losing 1,000,000 jobs a month last time we lowered rates. Now they lower them at full employment and stocks at ATH’s. Dumb and dumber.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    hey, whatever floats-your-boat.
    LOL.

  • Darkthirty

    It doesn’t confront me at all. I’m an equal opportunity ass kicker….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Time check.

  • Darkthirty

    My boat is stuck in the mud…

  • Darkthirty

    Is that any better than hats made in USA by illegals?

  • BKXtoZERO

    That was me.

  • HD

    “Flare up” just a bad std pun. My bad.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    I had two whipsaw losses but finally caught a runner on the short side to close out the day with a net +5 Points. Not a biggie but better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick. My Oil position was also up a little bit today and that is good all things considered. I don’t want to think about why oil has been going up because it would probably make my head hurt. I’ll just follow price instead. 🙂

  • Darkthirty

    You’ll flare up when you see the Q-tip with the 6″ wooden stick

  • ridingwaves

    I sold out of my L play, took the money..
    if we sell off more on Hong Kong news, China further falling off the cliff, oil should close down on demand, every country rates are deleveraging…..be careful out there….
    give thanks your not an Argentinian

  • BKXtoZERO

    Aand we all got older and uglier than she did

  • BobbyLow

    You’re probably right RW. But almost everytime or I should say more often than not when I try to make a move because of what I think I should do because of what’s happening or what I think is happening I usually lose. So I follow price instead and if I get stopped and gap out for a loss that’s OK.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    DAX: Double head and shoulder formation – methinks it’s rare – the first one marked blue played out

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/64127d9b1952ebd749917f4f8185666be850a831c38d3bc8621342f5baa7658e.png

  • HD

    I think Mole has missed every high IV move this year.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Don’t make me use the ban hammer. I’m taking time off as my health is compromised. So if you want to shit talk that’s up to you but it won’t buy you points.

  • HD

    Lol. You seem to step out whenever it gets nutty. I just assume you prefer slower markets. Nothing derogatory.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I just added to the above comment, but anyway: Mate I don’t think you appreciate how close to a complete break down I have come over the past month. I went to the emergency not once but twice and they almost kept me there. To be honest I don’t give two shits about the market right now and the only reason I didn’t just take six months off was because I don’t want to let my subs down. So forgive me if I’m not chasing every damn swing. My health goes first, IYKWIM.

  • HD

    Dang, I can feel that.

    I should take a break. No intention of stirring it up. Agree. Get well.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Thanks mate. Cut me some slack sometimes – I’m work hard to keep you guys happy 😉

  • BKXtoZERO

    Everyone get well! And take it light….a laugh a day trading!

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    What do you think: temporary support, bounce then moving lower?

    All this nasty political, war crap and I have lost confidence to take a position.

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    Health first! The market will be here and your heading has more value that anyone might realize… doing nothing is a position and the correct on in this market IMO.

  • Ronebadger

    SPY volume kinda light today…compared to the last week and a half anyway

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    could be interesting – just explains the whipsaw market recently – DJIA https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/01df3b33155257fb7312a419dc633848112a3c647808bb9161856b9b50805be7.png

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    full moon Thursday..high or low? going to say low (more bullish)!

  • Darkthirty

    People don’t seem to understand how cataclysmic health issues are to an aging dragon, and they probably won’t until they face it themselves. Hang tough, work on your chi………

  • Ronebadger

    Maybe…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Took profits and out USO UNG retaining for a longer term trade
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    Typing with your toes?

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    I guess Full Moon will be a HIGH LOL

  • BobbyLow

    Saw an Alert on IB that said “China talks might be back in play in two weeks.” And I ask how many times can the market play this on again – off again – on again fucking talks? I guess the answer is as many times as it wants.

    Going to be difficult for me to make an entry on Equity Futures today but at least this BS is helping my long oil position.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    yep maybe the SEC should investigate !! (i.e. trades and news)

  • BobbyLow

    Maybe it should but it wont.

    But this is why other than Oil, I’ve switched over to day trading and am out and back in cash before the COB everyday. I can’t even imagine trying short term equity swing positions with this crapola going on. I probably won’t be able to make a day trade today and if I don’t that’s OK cause tomorrow’s another day. Above all, cash is a position too. 🙂

  • ridingwaves

    blew my stops up on gold and vix this am on the old whack a mole opex week….might have to follow u on trades now, I like a longer term but these big boys are blowing trades up both ways…

    heck all they had to do was get Appl up 9 points to do it

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    so funny – just shows who’s running the market – I was stopped out on most of shorts (+) now holding fire see if this is a blip or they actually manage to turn it around (UP)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    The most difficult thing for me to overcome was emotion especially on futures. I’m grateful that the CME came out with the /MES Micro Futures. It was a lot easier to experiment with a trading plan at $5.00 per point than $50 per point. I’ve been able to work myself up to trading 2 Contracts and so now it’s $10.00 per point. I might be able to put my big boy pants on someday and trade the Mini’s at $50 but for now I’m happy doing what I’m doing. All in all, it’s been a pleasant surprise what the overall results can be trading the Micros with a decent trading plan.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    You know that fizzy sensation you get when you open a can of 7-Up? Now I know it is coming back down soon but I don’t want to get my face ripped off either. Guess I will do nothing again. 🙁

  • BobbyLow

    There’s an old saying in trading “When in doubt stay out”.

    Also never forget that cash is a position too.

  • ridingwaves

    no chart covers today’s lesson…just thievery running rampant today

  • ridingwaves

    excellent for you, have to adjust myself, which might take me a bit….so I will pull back for now….work is busy anyways….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    Thanks and understood. I think it would be very difficult to day trade while working but it might be something to look forward to when you are ready.

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BL I got out of USO yesterday and kept UNG. The price action USO yesterday and the day before was not promising. No one knows day to day. All we can do is trade everything close to the vest presently
    JULIE

  • mSquare

    Today’s rally is one more of Charlie Brown rushes to kick the football!

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    NDX 100 2 hours..if it gives back all of the “Trump” rally – could be quite bearish – watching 7550 – shorted on that pop (day trading! not my usual style but big points move) be nimble https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/17a923c13a9a4a369906c165f422a0539d3ee36e7946d0ea354381bb03a882d1.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Last weeks bounce off the 233 ema Present bounce off lower cloud If continues higher going to watch upper cloud
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f56e9b84118b44a71183c08562608070fb89966661c508d5cb480710504e42ed.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    yesterday said felt like a B… B of what? who cares…

  • BKXtoZERO

    Ooot of DUST 7.49. I will take 6.8%. I missed the spike this morning aaarg.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Strong resistance zone approx 2950 matching the 61.8% retracement
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Ooot of UGAZ, 11.6 to 12.84 (he he he)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK IMO UNG and natty gas a longer term trade A huge amount of Spec shorts that must cover
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    I agree but have trouble not just taking things off with big hits due to volatility, quick hair trigger, will eye it for long set ups.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Long TVIX 18.63 but it looks like a squeeze kind of a day so relatively tight

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    oot at 18.4 for .20 cent ding on 1R, waiting for better set up, maybe EOD

  • BKXtoZERO

    Long again but tight, 18.53

  • mSquare

    Wow – in July 2010 the $SPX was 1100s and thinking was for it go back lower to 666!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Zimbabwe. say it slowly. Zim-bab-we.

  • Darkthirty

    Top line on VWAP is 2958.44 ES, is that correct?

  • BobbyLow

    Decimals fluctuating but yes

  • Darkthirty

    Have a 2x top 618 retrace hit at

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    A = C would be approx upper cloud in chart below That’s what I am currently watching along with SPX 2950 resistance and 61.8% retracement
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    Just for fun, check your system in the June 22nd area, and see if it correlates in any way with the current set up. I’m seeing a lot of similarities..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Yup intraday consolidation for another move higher. Again one target is upper cloud. 2nd target 2950 matching 61.8% retracement.That’s it for me today I am on some heavy medication and now lights out
    JULIE

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    speedy recovery!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Darkthirty

    Not to sound like a beach boys tune, but wouldn’t it be nice to be in the crew that gets a heads up BEFORE ES jumps 27 pts in 3 minutes?

  • BKXtoZERO

    Glad that makes you happy Sir! You need cheering up.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I may have to kick all your butts again soon so rest up….lift weights or something….the VIXterminator is coming for you!

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    deja vu

  • Mark Shinnick
  • Mark Shinnick

    Remarkable 2.8 zone gss support right now.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Hey, if you can’t read a chart – not my problemo.
    😉
    You *know* this was turn-around Tuesday.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5cc3a5b53714da4e7cdb35dd8220ace2cddb972f5eb14332bbafb95823c21b01.jpg

  • Darkthirty

    That’s a 5 minute chart, a little bit too fast for you, yes?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    yeah – just pokin the bear. to tell the truth, I was looking at the hourly half hour before open, Was 60/40 biased to the long, said Fuck it, and rolled on without entries.

  • Darkthirty

    Been doing that a lot lately myself. Nice to catch a runner, but don’t need a whipping either.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    Hey, who was “feeling” a B low yesterday and Ca$hed in?????

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    I hope you didn’t spend it all in one place!
    ;-D
    https://f4.bcbits.com/img/a1900295966_10.jpg

  • BKXtoZERO

    My problem is the Curse of Knowledge bias…. on these big gap ups, they didn’t get me….. but I have to remember that they got other people and I am often quick to kick their tires way too soon.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Up 14% this year now (so far)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    that’s awesome. around double mine.
    but I betcha my draw-down is smaller.
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    he he he he…. I have some swings but compared to the old days I am TOTALLY under control these days.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Very Linear…. Nice Gerb.

  • BKXtoZERO

    draw down starting in March…. little market dip, what got your goat there?

  • BKXtoZERO

    I can’t log in from home to send you mine

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    no worries. enjoy your evening. I’m stepping off.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Vacuous … Nailed today’s character.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    REVERSE engines watching NDX 100 (current cash 7600 ish )
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/17a923c13a9a4a369906c165f422a0539d3ee36e7946d0ea354381bb03a882d1.png

    chart posted yesterday