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Dollar At A Crossroads
65

Dollar At A Crossroads

by The MoleJune 5, 2018

Continued softness in the Dollar has now delivered it at a crossroads near its DX 94 mark. A push higher from here most likely puts it on course for a continued squeeze higher, while a drop through 93.8 has good odds to continue into 93.4 where the 25-day SMA may produce at least a temporary spike low.

Of course a correction at this stage was to be expected after a brutal four week long short squeeze. As you can see corrective forces materialized the first time in early May but were quickly overrun within a single session that put the old greenback back on course higher.

This time I however do not sense the same amount of vehemence and politically speaking there are fewer reasons for the Eurocrats to get their panties into a twist and thus flood MSM outlets with incessant reports of impending doom and gloom. So in my mind the situation is a 50/50 proposition which is difficult to gauge and needs to be negotiated with finesse. And that’s my cue!

As you know I’m already long the USD/JPY which much to my surprise has now advanced near enough to 1R MFE to justify advancing my stop to break/even. Truth be told I should have probably waited a few more pips but as I’m adding additional campaigns I need to manage my risk a bit more conservatively.

The EUR/USD has come back to its 100-day SMA and that’s a long for me with a stop < 1.162, that quick spike low last week which must have cleared out a hell of a lot of long positions.

The long term panel on the USD/CAD is starting to look every interesting and we are now looking at a possible break/out pattern pushing it > the rising diagonal trendline I have painted on the weekly chart.

Given that perspective and the neckline on the daily panel I’m now adding a long position with a stop < 1.289. So as you can see I’m starting to get positioned bi-directionally the USD as it’s difficult to determine which side will win.

More entries and pertinent perspectives below the fold:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Platinum is dead. -1%
    Long live the converter.

  • nirav777

    zero giving anyone else a blue screen? or just me?

  • Lugman

    Same

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Me too.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Tomcat

    Oil looks tempting here

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Tomcat

    Eyes are the last place i am looking

  • HD

    BL and RW got me looking at ZW. Very technical looking chart. Little OB 518 https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8cb9865c8345b3edaa2642c6dda51eccfd537f84052eb0f321047063cc1dd32f.png

  • ridingwaves

    I have a bid L 28.30 UWT…might be too low

  • ridingwaves

    its just now warming up, plenty of room to move north, everything below it says bullish trend is beginning…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah a solid binary level right in here.

  • HD

    No longer OB, 513. Guess Iā€™m a wheat scalper again.

  • Tomcat

    The problem with that trendline (you have drawn), which can be applied to most grains and even $GASO, is that it doesn’t factor in the bearish seasonality that we heading into.

  • ridingwaves

    not sure if seasonality will be at play, the only seasonality it has known is down over last 3-4 years, inflation is the key, my bet is its here and coming harder…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    THE ZERO IS BACK!

    Sorry guys – the app must have crashed while I was at the gym. That rarely happens but I have noticed more quirks over the past month. I’ll start relaunching it in the morning now when I turn it on.

  • Tomcat

    We will agree to disagree, if you go back 20-30 years, the seasonality effect on grains is clear to me. Having said that, as I was talking to a friend, Wheat is close to triggering a long for me on the hourly chart on my system. Not quite yet though.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey guys, so on top of the Zero it seems disqus is having problems today. When did this start?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    slow memory leak?, rarer than they use to be.
    I’d auto-cycle it every Monday morning. that would fix it, if so.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    uh-oh.
    must wait for pullback to test (support)
    [SPX]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p90274267460

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I cycle it every Monday of course because of updates. But since the past two updates it’s been more ‘crashy’. So I’ll probably revert to launching it every morning again. More work for me but I don’t want this to happen during my absence.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    That TL should keep us objective. Agree, Below would start a retrace.

  • ridingwaves

    xlf is wedged with bullish pps volume not too far above, big key for bullish break out to continue…crude price bottom would also factor…
    trucking industry is getting huge money on loads both short and long, 2-5 day waits are 10-14 now, operators are saying nothing like it in 30 years…underlying inflation is picking up

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    automate it, what kind of OS we talking about here?

  • ridingwaves

    OT-Kate Spade found dead in New York in apparent suicide: media reports
    There is no value in life except what you choose to place upon it and no happiness in any place except what you bring to it yourself.
    henry_david_thoreau

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’ve got at least 10 comments come to mind but they are all politically incorrect so I’ll pass.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Windows 7

    don’t start – I’ll be the last mofo running Win7

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    My employer just forced me from Win7 to Win10. No worries.
    is it a Java application? do you start it from a batch/cmd file?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Your application (if possible) needs to be turned into a ‘Service’,

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windows_service

    which will run in the background.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Service_wrapper

    You can then set this service to start on every server startup &
    you can create scheduled tasks to restart the Service on your timeframe.

    https://www.google.com/search?q=windows+7+scheduled+tasks&rlz=1C1GGRV_enUS751US751&oq=windows+7+scheduled+tasks&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l4j5.5055j1j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8&safe=active&ssui=on

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    FYI.
    Windows 7(codenamed Vienna, formerly Blackcomb[7]) is a personal computer operating system developed by Microsoft. It is a part of the Windows NT family of operating systems.Jun 29, 2017

  • ridingwaves

    the demons inside, they creep in your soul, take root in your brain, tempting you with resolution to all the pain, whispering of a better place, free of sorrow, don’t answer them, they are vain and selfish, get help, find peace, seek nature and live for the beauty and promise of tomorrow

  • HD

    $SPX the symmetry I noted yesterday in play. From May low 2677-2729, 52. 2701+52= 2753. Larger symmetry from the April low at 2758.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I have trigemnial neuralgia inside my nose that goes into my left eye and my brain on bad days. Fortunately not all the time. During those moments, even a sane rational grounded person like myself, with a wife, kid and nice house…… that stuff goes out the window in the mental calculus involved.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    But it’s a perfect excuse for getting away with a ton of shit. Like having Tourette syndrome – you basically have free reign! šŸ™‚

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yes it is a Java app unfortunately.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    There’s probably a way to script it, but frankly I’m already buried with daily maintenance But yeah, maybe worth it given that I have to do this every single day.

  • ridingwaves

    much to low

  • ridingwaves

    Noise pollution is also not helping along with 60gigs of info a day…I think all the noise is causing even loved ones to not notice the little things in folks with any anxiety, depression, defeated demons…

    I guess my take above was that though she had everything every one of us could want, she still had something we don’t

  • HD

    Gap fill or 2731 from here?

  • HD

    Ha!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    off to lunch!

  • BKXtoZERO

    Not here! That is why I love your site. Tough love here. Have a system…. Have a plan… Have a stop. Watch position sizing. Or get yelled at til you leave.

  • BobbyLow

    I’m still holding the second half of my Short position.

    I just got back home from getting an injection for lower back pain and before I left this morning price had just hit 518 and thought I might get stopped out some time today. However, it looks like you were spot on at the 518 Level because price turned around there and it closed at 509.50. So the second half of my position is still in the game with my Trailing Stop set at + 5 Points. I got 20 Points on the first half so whatever happens, happens.

    I’m using a 3 Hour Chart and it’s still Bearish by my lens. We’ll see what it does tonight. If we get a continuation to the downside, I’ll pick up more points. If price turns around again and shows me some stability above 520 ish, I’ll take what the market has given me, Flip it and go Long.

    BTW, Tomcat is correct about the bearish sesonality because that has shown up during my back testing. But of course nothing is guaranteed in this business.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    then you’ll need a Java wrapper.
    If you can get over the hurdle, you’re home free.

    https://www.appnovation.com/blog/run-java-applications-windows-services-java-service-wrapper

    The human temptation is to run the manual process, after umpteen months, you’ll think “gee, If I only took a few days to automate this, I would be ahead of the game”.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    back from lunch.
    One of the advantages of the heat? women in skimpy clothes.
    The drawback?, less of them, they stay indoors! šŸ™

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Aaaaaaand I’ve been triggered.

    “In the latest effort to signal as much virtue as possible, the Miss America beauty contest is scrapping its swimsuit and evening-gown section and will no longer be judged on physical appearance. Contestants will instead be asked to demonstrate their “passion, intelligence and overall understanding of the job of Miss America.”

    just shoot me, My World has passed away.

  • BobbyLow

    Speaking of TS, I had a friend who had Tourette Syndrome. He sometimes would say some really off the wall stuff while he was talking, make unusual noises and move his hands around at the same time. He was also an amazing guy to play golf with. Whenever we played golf, I would tee off and send the ball directly into the water or shank it into the woods. My friend with Tourette S. would line up to the ball and move his body around in many directions in a herky jerky motion and then hit one of the most beautiful golf shots that you would ever see. He was at worst a 6 Handicap. He was also a top ranked salesman. I’ve lost contact but it was a good experience to know him.

  • randomuser6789

    Crazy world.

  • HD

    Iā€™d rather go to a bar on Mill Ave than watch a pageant. Better scenery. Same IQ

  • HD

    At $1500 AMZN lost $200, $1600 lost $200, twice, $1700 traded today.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Wow….
    Sqeezola.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Nice for NQ but what if anything does that for ES? Banks? Probably not.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m going to tear my hear out today. Nothing but problems with the hosting company. On top of the Zero crashing and disqus not working properly. (*@&^!$!!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    OMG I’m TOTALLY in sync with you on this. Living here in Spain has turned into one huge battle against noise pollution as this is the loudest fucking country I have ever been in my life.

  • Kishore Kumar

    I don’t know about a Windows Server, but on Linux sites, e.g. http://infosurf.org, I use monit to automatically restart.

    https://tutorialinux.com/monitor-all-the-things-with-monit/

    PHP crashes within a couple of days because of memory leaks in the libraries over which we have no control.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    What happened to Julie?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    I was wondering same.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    unusual Macy’s calls $42 strike July expiry.
    Julie went shopping!?

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=M&p=W&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p99592672186

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    It’s wearing me down in the City, the bay is the quiet part of this metropolis, this city is loud and not good for my head….that is a honest assessment..more nature necessary, not enough, though blessed with it…
    I should have been a farmer or baseball player…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=udXB13CJOGE

  • ridingwaves

    Here’s hoping it happens less and much success….