Dollar Glass Ceiling
Since the beginning of summer the U.S. Dollar has been making repeated attempts to breach through what appears to be a clear ceiling around ~95.25, give or take a few ticks. All that activity has produced a double stack of NLBLs near that range on the weekly panel. Thus it’s safe to say that a confident push above it will unleash a short squeeze of galactic proportions.
Bump – drop – bump – drop – bump – is it going to be another drop this time? Now it being summer and all I have been snoozing on a perfectly passable entry around 94.7 yesterday when the DX again breached that NLBL and spike high. If it retests that range I’d be very interested to snag myself some long exposure.
Thing is that this is a complete 50/50 call as there are too many macro-economic and political variables to be juggled. I’m not a fundamental trader so my only way in here is price action. I can either buy on a that retest I mentioned or I can wait for a break out followed by a retest. Some would immediately enter at a breach at 95.25 – it all depends on your style of trading.
Now the AUD/USD may be our handy canary in the coal mine in this scenario as it’s coiling up and given EUR indecision could swing the scales ahead of time. IMO this however is best done via a retest entry: Either it pops higher and retests 0.7464 or it drops and then retests 0.7318. Same concern applies however, in that it may not even retest and just take off like gangbusters.
Meanwhile in equities my E-Mini campaign is doing just fine, thank you very much. I’m not trailing at about 1R with 1.5R in MFE. Yup that’s quite a wide stop range but recall that I would have gotten stopped out had I not been so conservative.
You can’t be stingy when it comes to wide range volatile markets, a lesson I personally had to learn the hard way so that you don’t! 😉
Damnit – you just had to ask about silver, didn’t you. Alright – it’s been a mess and is looking forward to getting messier. Like wrestling with a pig this one. The big enjoys it and you get all dirty.
It’s currently hovers around -0.5R with suicidal tendencies, thus I’m giving this about a 25% chance of not hitting ISL this week.
We have more juicy entries waiting in the bullpen, so please join me in the lair:
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