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Dollar Glass Ceiling
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Dollar Glass Ceiling

by The MoleAugust 8, 2018

Since the beginning of summer the U.S. Dollar has been making repeated attempts to breach through what appears to be a clear ceiling around ~95.25, give or take a few ticks. All that activity has produced a double stack of NLBLs near that range on the weekly panel. Thus it’s safe to say that a confident push above it will unleash a short squeeze of galactic proportions.

Bump – drop – bump – drop – bump –  is it going to be another drop this time? Now it being summer and all I have been snoozing on a perfectly passable entry around 94.7 yesterday when the DX again breached that NLBL and spike high. If it retests that range I’d be very interested to snag myself some long exposure.

Thing is that this is a complete 50/50 call as there are too many macro-economic and political variables to be juggled. I’m not a fundamental trader so my only way in here is price action. I can either buy on a that retest I mentioned or I can wait for a break out followed by a retest. Some would immediately enter at a breach at 95.25 – it all depends on your style of trading.

Now the AUD/USD may be our handy canary in the coal mine in this scenario as it’s coiling up and given EUR indecision could swing the scales ahead of time. IMO this however is best done via a retest entry: Either it pops higher and retests 0.7464 or it drops and then retests 0.7318. Same concern applies however, in that it may not even retest and just take off like gangbusters.

Meanwhile in equities my E-Mini campaign is doing just fine, thank you very much. I’m not trailing at about 1R with 1.5R in MFE. Yup that’s quite a wide stop range but recall that I would have gotten stopped out had I not been so conservative.

You can’t be stingy when it comes to wide range volatile markets, a lesson I personally had to learn the hard way so that you don’t! 😉

Damnit – you just had to ask about silver, didn’t you. Alright – it’s been a mess and is looking forward to getting messier. Like wrestling with a pig this one. The big enjoys it and you get all dirty.

It’s currently hovers around -0.5R with suicidal tendencies, thus I’m giving this about a 25% chance of not hitting ISL this week.

We have more juicy entries waiting in the bullpen, so please join me in the lair:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Ronebadger

    FYI – VIX Sell Signal Step One yesterday (2nd Step One in a row)

  • Richard Adler

    Can you explain?

  • Yoda

    re. DX, watch out for fake moves. I smell a bull trap instead of a major short squeeze.

  • Ronebadger
  • Richard Adler

    Thank you

  • randomuser6789

    I bought TVIX at the end of the day yesterday.
    2 closes below the BB in a row? Recently in the 10s? I smell volatility coming.

  • RoastBeeph

    LOL

  • HD

    I’m old enough to remember when a trade war tweet was worth 30 handles, now just 2.75…..

  • Mark Shinnick

    Normally this past several months I’d agree more readily. The wrench is inverse volatility is pushing into its dead space since January/February.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    LOL

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    He sorted you out! 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Tomcat

    To further add to yesterday’s “news”: re: TSLA. If this “secured funding” that he claims he has falls through and he has to raise capital just like many analysts who have reviewed the financial statements suggest, this scam would be bigger than what Maddof pulled >$70B…..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi TC A false or misleading statement opens the door for litigation
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    “Forward-looking” statement ?

  • Mark Shinnick

    We’ve landed on some volatility support, maybe nice place to gap-down from in the morning :/

  • randomuser6789

    Do you mean gap down equities or gap down VIX?
    This would be the VIX’s 3rd day in a row to close below the BB.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Volatility “support” is almost a euphemism, but I went long tvix some minutes ago.

  • HD

    Not much action. BTC, still crashing. ZW still stuck at 570, SPX did not make HH today. First time this month and first sign of caution imo. Watching the EW, TL to Confirm retracement on deck. Close but Not yet. See how they close em. Prefer green close.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Tomcat

    Julie,
    I don’t think he would be dumb to make a false statement especially since it was followed with an email right after he made it. My point is, if this funding which appears to be likely from the saudis, falls through for say the SEC doesnt approve because it would be a foreign entity making the bid (so very much anti-america and anti-current regime), tesla would have to raise capital and that may prove to be fatal for him. I, just like RW, actually think there is a higher chance he has actually secured the funding and the deal will go through, but just raising the possible yet remote possibility of the other outcome…

  • Ronebadger

    About a nine point SPX range today

  • Yoda

    Gartman’s effect

  • randomuser6789

    Tiny divergence with SPX and VIX.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    snort

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Whipsaw galore…

  • Ronebadger
  • randomuser6789

    Sweet!
    As mentioned, I positioned for it already with TVIX.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That’s an interesting one as we closed lower than yesterday. But we are inside I think so mmmh…. tricky. Well, IF we get a close back inside tomorrow I’d put it on the map.

  • Ronebadger

    I don’t like it…not a classic Step 2…we’ll see…

  • randomuser6789

    Where is everyone?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I dunno – everyone seems to be gone this week 🙁

  • HD

    present. I am struggling w 66 mbps this am. Quite slow. Typical is 100+

  • Ronebadger

    Present, waiting for some real action.

  • HD

    The EW has been choppy, until volatility lost. Impulses getting clean. Seems the next hit will be smaller, may even retain 2-4TL. 3rd waves. Sideways at R very typical.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/843da1dbf0deeb43507db53a3475e8d175c42f1b53c4fb443e1cc9be9a6c5f89.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Frustrating – once again the tape doesn’t get out of the gate when it matters the most. What I am looking forward to is either a tear upward that burns the shorts or a massive sell off that finally clears out all the stops below. Honestly I don’t care which way it goes but 2018 has been a bonafide PITA for equity traders.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5fbad4ffdd78f0cfaf713f086bb1b314bb0527fe18bc354ae7d7f2b4112f0a44.png

  • HD

    Agree, a lot of us are sitting on that drop.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes….The bus must be unloaded in some manner.

  • HD

    Humor me. “Space is becoming crowded and adversarial” Space Force!

    What’s the trade? $HON $ RTN $HAL. All in little down trends.
    Time to buy?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Old news the moment that F-15 blew out a satellite back in the 80’s …or maybe even sooner when sats were aimed at other sats.

  • Mark Shinnick
  • HD

    I’m still looking for a trade though. $TTEK is supposed to build that wall. Whether that happens or not doesn’t matter – check out the stock.

    Who will build the Death Star?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Sorry for being absent today but I am using people’s vacation time to set up some live streaming stuff which we will be using in the coming months. Plenty of very cool stuff to come 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    By the way – where are Julie and the GoldGerb? Did they elope together?

  • Ronebadger

    Is there a brick wall around 2863? Again, very small range…eventually, something will bust. Place your bets now? https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4eeb085949fd1279962fcb24ecfcdc3b2acda279f85161d77b551e57184dd28e.png

  • Ronebadger

    Curious VIX action. You know IF this kind of pattern showed topping tails ABOVE the BBs, you’d know there was a rally pending. BUT, we are looking at continuing bottoming tails as the VIX drags lower and lower… https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c508d461429d8a12fb30e2bd39c123e825c984d1343009fb3e4c7c7ee537e86d.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…I guess TA and EW aren’t much of a help.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    only a rumor.

    Grizz has a gun, and I plan to stay well out of range. Two or three states should suffice.
    =P

    http://www.grumpysperformance.com/500s&w.jpg

  • randomuser6789
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ..speaking of range, how bout that TESLA?

    should be at $490 by now and…..*click*….what?!…..what happened!?!?
    Muwahahaha.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b90e515d47e7ed2be786859ee83e115a133e8bdae1bd3c7d8d49b7bd73197a85.png

  • randomuser6789

    Dollar is up, VIX is down. Yes, it could continue higher, but I am positioned for a move down.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    good eye kimosabe.

  • Ronebadger
  • randomuser6789

    True it will confirm the signal, but for perspective, we are talking about a move of less than 0.2% on SPX today.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes….hasn’t gone particularly bananas yet, and didn’t quite reach into my objectives yet.

  • randomuser6789

    “Usually occurs within the next week” it says.
    https://evilspeculator.com/vix-reversal-signal/

  • Mark Shinnick

    Read as “More often than not…but not always”.

  • Ronebadger

    yet

  • Mark Shinnick

    In the perspective of game theory pondering, I guess this is some reaction to the inverse breaking back into its January range but as usual who knows WTF is going on. So far the take-home is we hung into and penetrated that range for quite some time …in the volatility reality frame. RE remains steady and HY too. There is a reason we returned into January’s range seeming more-and-more credible.

  • Tomcat

    Looks like the dollar is about break out:
    https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=d1
    Not looking good for the PMs.

  • Yoda

    there is panic setting up in markets.. it’s gonna be an interesting day

  • Yoda

    IMHO DX’s breakout today is a bull trap