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Dollar Showing Signs Of Life
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Dollar Showing Signs Of Life

by The MoleFebruary 22, 2018

The Dollar is increasingly showing signs of life, no doubt due to the slightly more bullish stance exhibited yesterday by the FOMC committee. As of this morning the DX has inched its way up to a 10-day high and is heading for its first weekly gain of 2018. Woohoo!

As you all know I’m not a fan of a weak Dollar for two reasons: First I don’t believe in artificial annual inflation of 2.x% as demanded by the Federal Reserve, and second I currently live in Europe whilst earning in Dollars. Every tick lower in the USD (and no play) makes the Mole a very dull boy. And we don’t want another fire axe incident, don’t we?!

And here’s our current double bottom in all its glory. Now make no mistake, this could still resolve to the downside after having sucked in a ton of Dollar bulls. But a breach of 90.5 would greatly weaken that proposition and once the 91 mark can be cleared we’ll have some very nice context below for potential entry opportunities. So let’s see what happens here over the next week or two.

Inverse situation of course in the EUR/USD. Here a drop < the bullish/bearish inflection point at 1.22 is expected to drive price lower to about 1.2 where I expect the Eurobulls set up a defense perimeter.

On the USD/JPY I would be interested in an exploratory long position once a retested spike low is in place. A bit more downside wouldn’t hurt either but I very much like the formation on the short term panel

Equities are increasingly losing their mojo and my E-Mini long campaign was taken out at ISL. I may try again near the 100-day SMA but let’s first see what today’s session brings. At this point realized volatility is expected to continue expressing itself via a sideways range. Entering here and now looks tempting but would be a gamble based on a hunch and not technical evidence.

In case you haven’t heard: BTC has dipped back below its $10k mark and that’ll be good for a early morning scare for all those U.S. based cryptobugs.

Crude is holding its own during the current Dollar advance but a quick dip lower overnight almost took my campaign out at its trail. One tick lower or so and my stop would have gotten filled, but thus far it looks like it’s back on track.

Another entry opportunity awaits – please meet me in the lair:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

BTC: 1MwMJifeBU3YziDoLLu8S54Vg4cbnJxvpL
BCH: qqxflhnr0jcfj4nejw75klmpcsfsp68exukcr0a29e
ETH: 0x9D0824b9553346df7EFB6B76DBAd1E2763bE6Ef1
LTC: LUuoD6sDWgbqSgnpo5hceYPnTD9MAvxi6c

  • Tomcat

    But but Gartman “is now neutral on Bitcoin”. How can you possibly have this in your radar without the backing of the maestro???

  • Tomcat

    “We did indeed lose money on Friday on a ‘block-chain’ related equity that we had owned for the previous several days.”

  • Tomcat

    I am going L $GC here.

  • Tomcat

    Mole, just read your post about “donation” and just like HD said, have no idea nor willingness to open a crypto account especially given that I don’t plan to trade it any time soon (so there is little incentive to convert $ to crypto, unless I am not understanding how that works). There has to be another easy way to implement a tip jar (i.e. paypal, mobile banking maybe)???

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Nah – don’t worry about it. It’s an experiment and clearly very few people here are into crypto. Which is a bit strange IMO as I think crypto is here to stay in one form or the other, but that’s another topic.

  • HD

    Before open yesterday noted the BTC getting the business at 10,900, broke 0-B TL -$1000 more now. Looks like we are seeing 3’s. IMO Neely’s TL analysis was a great improvement to EW.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/942145dc2029db0c5d704c44f16f36ae11201101a4e984115433d28790f989d2.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/50c8ffeff80ca3bf9efaa45583e8616c6b6019bcb3b263303b1b337d64956ef5.png /XBT is 1:1 and /BTC is 5:1 pick your poison
    I’m taking the rest of the day off πŸ™‚

  • Tomcat

    But why not? There has to be an easy way to make this work, by making use of common platforms that most trust. I would have no hesitation with paypal because I use it for other purchases, but there are similar platforms i.e. square, etc.

    This blog should be absolutely supported. The content shared here is very valuable.

  • ridingwaves

    the $ was most likely pushed up to cover the auctions this week…1/4 trillion is a lot and they needed some buyers….

  • ridingwaves

    also a shout out and congrats to the US womens hockey team for winning the gold….

    GC opex today, what say you my precious…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yah, EUR already pushing up again.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    PayPal is easy – support@evilspeculator.com – have at it πŸ˜‰

  • ridingwaves

    be interesting to see if we find last Friday’s lows again by tomm.

  • Tomcat

    Please add it to the bottom of every post similar to how you have those other addresses. I am frequently in a donating mood especially after a winning campaign especially if I picked a tip here…

  • Julie

    USO resistance 12.68 and 12.87
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    good entry, plays off 2 other candle cluster lows over last 3 months

  • Julie

    Mole I have never used pay pal Do you charge to a credit or debit card.? I will gladly send a donation. I too read the crypto donation comment and did not understand
    JULIE

  • Tomcat

    Julie, you can do both, charge to CC and DC and bank account. You can also have a paypal credit account (which is essentially a credit card through paypal). IMO is very secure given how paypal is a public company they need to take user security very seriously.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Been going long equities around here, tight stop now possible.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Wow… want to help me forever stop infant SIDS?

  • BobbyLow

    Go with the flow. . . πŸ™‚

  • Edgy

    Good luck!
    I think your stop is about to be tested.

  • Mark Shinnick

    This range thing of course will eventually break…I’ve stood aside for the time being.

  • Mark Shinnick

    You bet, stood aside, no reason this can’t just keep ranging for a bit longer.

  • Lugman

    I took a long too earlier today. Momentum is very likely to carry us to a new high for the move, but whether we test yesterday’s low before that is another thing.

  • Darkthirty

    staying in the channel. 38 minute pump-7 minute drop….. scalp em! corrections at 2 hour time

  • Tomcat

    Help you stop infant SIDS?? No offense, but NO because I have no proof/evidence where that money is going. I donate to certain charities (vetted organizations) that deal with the well being of kids in mostly poor countries having seen these conditions first hand while traveling in my fighting days.

    I actually misused the term “donation” before and should have used the word “contribution” to the continuation of this blog.

  • Darkthirty

    close to a 786 retrace…

  • Darkthirty

    Lost a premie son to SIDS at 6 months. Dealt with at least a dozen on the job……tough stuff to deal with.

  • Tomcat

    Sorry to hear!!!

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, things are getting pretty well inflectioned around here…anything can happen.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You can just go to paypal.com and they use your CC if you don’t have an account. You would send it to support@evilspeculator.com. Thanks in advance πŸ™‚

    BTW, you are doing more than enough via your daily contributions here, so please don’t feel obligated.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You mean PayPal? Let me look into that… good idea! πŸ™‚

  • Tomcat

    Yes, gold seemed to have a bit of momentum this morning which has since tapered. In big picture terms, gold is competing with all these crypto currencies as a store of value. Heavy 4 year resistance ~1360-70. A visible reversed H&S forming is my long term thesis. Time will tell.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yeah, but I think everyone knows what is meant. Semantics…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, turning to short bias again…

  • ridingwaves

    Interesting confluence here…hourly spy 8 weeks..holding the barney line is semi important
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/58fe263730a5db73c6c3c1c64951a4aaa8150bc851990c49386afd7b9a6ccaad.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    …one of those thing just got to wonder about – no mere coincidence….as if to say “whatever comes out of this is important”

  • Julie

    Covering BAC short for basically BE Conversion line (8) now above baseline (21) A consolidation above the 21 ema and 5 ema
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey guys – I just added a new poll about trading crypto currencies in the right sidebar. Please vote!!

  • Lugman

    Let’s see if I get stopped out at 2705, sure looks like it will take me out.

  • Julie

    Hi Chief I voted
    JULIE

  • Tomcat

    Does anyone know why the next futures contract lacks the normal interest/volume. So for example, you would think investors would have rolled over their positions from Feb contract to March but instead looks like the volume is for the April contract… I have seen it before in other precious metals

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..back from lunch.
    Somebody better turn back on that Credit Pump, or things are going to get ugly IMHO.

    Last Kiss Goodbye?

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ed9cb0becb2d9fb12ce1eaa58a8d302bb6642e47ce5484c3d70f309ec78e69d6.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Gotta wonder, this is just a washing machine in the meantime.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Yep. The Market needs a good cleaning, don’t you think?
    πŸ˜‰

    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/Bp9PbPtQVGM/hqdefault.jpg

  • ridingwaves
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    Looking for 2658.5 + or –

  • Mark Shinnick

    You have a way with images….so qwik with this stuff.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    SPX 2681 first….

  • Julie

    GG The show Cool Hand Luke with Paul Newman Good one GG
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Try to keep them classy, always.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Julie

    GG Yup one more leg down
    JULIE

  • Julie

    GG We had 12.68 target USO today’s high 12.69
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    maybe you can wave count it for me.
    Don’t think it will (be) a simple impulse, and done.

  • Darkthirty

    Nope, gonna gap down over that………….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    yeah. dirty little head fake.
    no one said oil was easy.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USO&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p16773519809

    I didn’t touch the rattle snake so, no harm, no foul.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    WRONG GAP! Why do you think I hang out in yoga classes? ; )

  • Julie
  • Julie
  • Julie

    GDX support 21.57 and 21.41 Still short 1/4 position. Today’s high again the daily 5 ema
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    That’s what she said…………..

  • HD

    Unreal chart of SPX. Rallied right into 50DMA again! I will say target rich environment. Also had the Thursday strategy.

    HD Julie
    a day ago
    That’ll work! 30 point hit EOD just like yesterday. May be strategy for Thursday.