Don’t Buy The Rumor – Sell The News

I’m sure you’ve heard by now- the U.S. economy is experiencing major shrinkage. The decline in Q1 real GDP was the largest since Q1 2009 (-5.4%) when the economy was in recession. According to Joseph A. LaVorgna at Deutsche Bank: ‘when the economy shrinks as much as it did in Q1, the economy is either in recession or about to enter one.’ Gold and bonds just popped and equities are still clinging to yesterday’s lows.

This is now officially yesterday’s news. So don’t get caught up in all the excitement. This move has already been played a long time ago – it started around noon yesterday when some of the insiders got wind of the data which was released today. It isn’t fair but it is what it is.

The bears are dancing in the streets popping magnum bottles of Cristal. And you know what that means.

Oh you don’t? Let me enlighten you then.

Well, you may have heard the expression ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’. I never buy rumors but I’m very much about selling news if the technicals are giving me a decent reason. What we do NOT know right now is whether equities are going to descend lower. They may today during the NYSE session but we shouldn’t focus on the futures as all types of shenanigans are going on there right now.

Instead we’ll watch the hourly SPX which at current ES futures readings are near SPX 1944 (assuming fair value of around -6 and change). That is BELOW the  100-hour SMA and we’ll do nothing. But if we see signs of SPX 1947 being retested we can evaluate if we can sell the news (i.e. be long) or if this is simply a last kiss goodbye. If we slide lower we’re looking at around SPX 1926 for some support. That’s where the 100-hour BB sits and it’s also near the weekly NLBL on the SPX.

Have fun but keep it frosty!

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Cheers,