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Don’t Hate Me Because I’m Beautiful
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Don’t Hate Me Because I’m Beautiful

by The MoleJuly 11, 2018

I swear this tape is going to give me an ulcer. Although I’m definitely not looking forward to the rainy season here in Spain I frankly can’t wait for the vacation season to be over. The gyrations were pretty bad before already but the low participation ping pong is getting ridiculous. Which is why I consider it to be a veritable miracle how well we have fared playing the swings over the past few months. But boy it truly is starting to take a toll on market participants across the board. I for one have never worked so hard to squeeze out so little.

Now in reference to today’s theme and Jeremy’s silly smile: remember when I told you guys on Monday morning to NOT chase gold higher due to divergences in the Yen to gold ratio? Well, if you were an intrepid sub that is, and if you’re not then you may want to go here to remedy this unfortunate situation.

Well, my musings couldn’t have been better timed as it’s been red candle central in precious metals ever since. In case you’re tempted to once again bet on gold: I would at least wait for a brach of the recent spike high of GC 1254 and then put my stop below the big spike low at 1247.7. Being stingy here given this level of intra-day volatility is most likely going to backfire.

But even if you see a textbook entry: check the yen/gold ratio and don’t risk more than 0.3% of your assets. WHY? Because just look at the daily chart, you are effectively trading against the trend. On the short side the perfect entry was near the 100-day SMA and unless you caught that I’d stay out.

Now the spoos campaign – down but not yet out. After two more spike lows I’ve raised my trail to about 1.5R. Which raises the odds of getting stop run but this thing either gets out of the gate or once again switches back into sell off mode. Remember it’s summer and the bots are duking it out in low volume conditions.

Despite taking off like gang busters on Monday my Euro campaign was stopped out at break/even yesterday. Well, to be honest I’m not too broken up about it as I enjoy a cheap Euro for obvious reasons. From a pure trading perspective I actually had a second chart waiting below for the subs, as I consider this  a great entry zone for a long campaign given the short term context, e.g. double bottom formation retesting the previous break out threshold near 1.17.

But then I remembered that Trump is meeting with euro ‘leaders’ (I’m trying to be nice here) in Brussels starting today. And although it’s officially just a NATO summit I’m certain many pressing macro economic topics will once again come to the forefront as both sides have become retrenched in their respective positions. And whatever juicy clickbait and soundbites may slip out over the next few days would probably affect the Euro and thus a long play is a bit too risky for me right now.

 

 


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Mark Shinnick

    Nothing appearing especially unusual last night or for time being in equities. Normal volatility rebound after extended crushing.

  • Yoda

    That was quite a dump at the open

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Mark wants to know ‘what volatility’ I’m referring to 😉

  • BKXtoZERO

    I flatted my TVIX 42 area entry this morning, then took a look at the ongoing chop and am just staying away from this crap. Back to bed……….. Van Tharpe would not approve, just tired today.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, tiredness fucks everything. I’m short equities for time being.

  • HD

    10 handle rally off the open

  • HD

    Speaking of volatility, the AZ valley has been nasty. PHX area has had 3 of these Haboobies this month!
    https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1016737357611974656

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD Talk about another Dust Bowl reminiscent of the 1930’s The Pacific Northwest OR and WA were the only regions not affected by the Dust Bowl. The Dust Bowl extended to the East and Southern Coasts.Locust plagues also. Utah ;Colorado and Idaho esp hit by locusts
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG is on vacation. RW and BL OK ?
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You didn’t ask about me!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Good choice.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    LOL…. Chief We know you are OK ! Yesterday 75 degrees in Oakridge OR. You could be canoeing at that beautiful lake in the Cascade Mtns The American West and the Crew awaits your return to the U.S.Chief !
    JULIE

  • HD

    Bots just sniffing out stops. No stops go untouched in the SnP’s. Don’t make a market for them.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD I am on the sidelines. SPX has not broken below it’s daily 5 ema matching a gap.
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GLD Looks like a retest of 117 is on the table. 117 is the target of the double top . 129 – 123 = 6
    123 – 6 = 117 JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7a0ddf09c525998983ec63abc8fe77b928fdd63eb8f28f01ba87ea1817ff5ddb.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    USO May short EOD must have a bearish close below it’s 5 ema. Target 38.2% retracement matching the daily 21 ema JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a80f1580bf27762241dd4dd82468801456abe4d1c34c087694ae39cd06ceac5a.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yeah, I’m getting pretty tired of Europe as this point. Will need to do a bit more of research and probably take a tour of Oregon before we make up our mind.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    MOS Going to watch at the confluence of the 89 ema ; price support and the 38.2% retracement JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d52695eda12c34a80843ae61eff4a8d05f2ea9261500c1909801507dd8dfd584.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Zero seems to be supportive of more downside today:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bcc9602a32f05651b8f81dec95ea2ddaea69e63a9590755e2c510bb37fbbad50.png

    I would not consider a long position unless VWAP gets conquered.

  • StockTalker

    Crude below 72 will dump hard

  • HD

    Agree. Looks like it tested the 72.50 already rejected.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    ST and HD Yup ! Me too ! Looking to short will wait until close..USO chart below
    JULIE

  • HD
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Possible bearish evening star candle print today
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    It’s coming

  • bankwalker

    when?

  • StockTalker

    Can’t tell you that but be prepared.

  • StockTalker

    68 price point on crude

  • HD

    Most are still buyers of the market, even holding at 2800. Nothing is guaranteed but the odds of this being a distribution top, 2018, are quite high. Deregulation, deficit spending for tax cuts- stuff the market loves but …there is some history rhyming too.

  • BKXtoZERO

    wow…. that is pretty scary close

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    ST USO I have 14.38 — 14.13 and 13.68 to watch
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD DB as I have stated repeatedly is the canary in the coal mine
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    /ZW closed the gap, long

  • HD

    Very nice Calls ST and Julie. Targeting previous 4th. Here’s the count from Sunday https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0115b79c90078f1ebbc65a4f58b8f85b89a767577b5aa9dcb97035922fa7f790.png

  • StockTalker

    Out of /CL short, wait and see what takes place until tomorrow.

  • StockTalker

    Watch for a market selloff now.

  • bankwalker

    now?

  • StockTalker

    Could be a start of a down turn, if it is it will be difficult to catch:)

  • StockTalker

    Look at crude go, Mfer

  • BKXtoZERO

    NIce trade, nice exit, we entered same day I think, you saw it through.

  • HD

    The exit is always the hardest. Crude -5% on the day good spot to take profit for sure!

  • Ronebadger
  • bankwalker

    She’s wound up like the traveling salesman’s wife watching the pool boy … don’t know which way she’s gonna end up goin’, but it’s gonna be memorable.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Colorful mkt commentary

  • StockTalker

    Market should be catching up too her:)

  • bankwalker

    It looks like she really wants to go down, but she’s fighting it hard.

    We shall see …

  • BKXtoZERO

    Mole Sir…. Is VIXEN a short VIX only system? My guess is yes. Can she be rewired? You may need to.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yes it only goes short VIX related ETPs and long the UVXY. We’ve done pertinent testing and at least over the past decade that’s the preferred trade. If market conditions ever change we’ll revisit that, but until we are in a bonafide bear cycle VIXEN simply sits it out. For example today it was sleeping.

  • BKXtoZERO

    We were both sleeping today. Thanks.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    checking in, looks like I didn’t miss much.
    what’s that saying? sometimes the squeeze isn’t worth the juice!

    Gold, chance for a weekly support dead cat bounce FWIW.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p04838657350

    -GG

  • randomuser6789

    You can take the rodent out of the trading, but you can’t take the trading out of the rodent.
    Aren’t you on vacation, GG?