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Draghi Doesn’t Rock The Boat
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Draghi Doesn’t Rock The Boat

by The MoleMarch 7, 2019

ECB President Mario Draghi ends his eight-year mandate this October and market participants are now starting to wonder what direction the central bank will take after his tenure finishes. In the interim it seems that Mr. Draghi,Β true to form, has been compelled to not rock the boat ahead of the upcoming European elections this May. No surprise there as Euro skeptical parties are already polling double digit increases, almost assuring a decisive defeat of the current status quo in Brussels.

So dovish it shall be once again with predictable reactions across forex and the futures. In a desperate effort to preserve whatever remains of his legacy/credibility, and to keep the EU train from completely hurdling off its rails, Draghi just committed to keeping rates low for the remainder of 2019 in combination with a new series of targeted longer term loans.

Not surprisingly the EUR/USD has dropped lower but I wouldn’t read too much into it just yet as our bearish inflection point of 1.1234 thus far remains intact. As I’m writing this the press conference is ongoing and knowing Draghi’s loose lips may serve ample ammunition for a few more gyrations before the EUR finally picks a direction.

Not much of a response the USD/JPY which remains barked right above the 100-day SMA. I’m tempted to grab a long position here but would like to see ab it more of a retest. In a pinch I will grab a breach > 112.122 in anticipation of a short squeeze.

King Dollar once again rules the day. I’m now moving my stop to about 1.2R and my preliminary target range has been set to ~97.5 where I will re-assess the situation.

 


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Sp00nman

    Nice hold on TVIX BKX. *thumbsup*

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    8 years? Where has the time gone?

    It’s going to be impossible, to top a protest table dance.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RczbumHindY

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    Sold out TZA

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    congrats.
    RSI 50 would make me nervous (too).

    but don’t look at me if it goes another 40 cents.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TZA&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p7393498668c

  • Jason13

    Look at that Zero Divergence….false signal?

  • ridingwaves

    easy money is over, 1490-1500 still looks like it could happen but I’m taking the gains…the 50/100sma cross is in that area….

  • Sp00nman

    Sure is hard to say. The selling “pressure” is lower today, and internals are off the lows, but seems like a coin toss in terms of if the lows will hold. Bulls are definitely trying to defend this level. Short term might get a bounce.

  • BobbyLow

    Nice short of the small caps.

    I’m still holding FAZ 3X Short Financials which began to show some weakness a couple of days ago after a 10 week run to the upside. Crude is being stubborn but I’m still short there too. (For now)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    it’s tough being evil.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d90464023d953e0c77dc8ef4a4e33345a7fcc9c871b5d18d1e0d0d40ca55ddb1.png

    The day is young, but notice the price Julie?
    2745
    πŸ˜‰

  • BKXtoZERO

    Sold TVIX 34.12 from 29.5, torn between holding but pretty sweet hit

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    have you looked at TZA?
    it’s damn near close to your favorite.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I stopped playing TZA as small caps were just frustrating

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I hear you. RUSSELL does that to me.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Nice size position, but 1/3 less than what I would have liked

  • ridingwaves

    thanks BL, just following the path that you blaze….good luck in your trades, I do like CL to move higher over next couple months…good support in current area, 60-62 is the real resistance but conjecture is just that..

  • Jason13

    Yeah, perhaps the zero has go above 0 to confirm follow through on a divergence like that.

  • HD

    coming in on the 2732 level noted yesterday πŸ™‚

  • BKXtoZERO

    Long TVIX 33.34

  • HD

    nice trade

  • BKXtoZERO

    Thanks, I wish I had held yesterday’s position too but it is hard to lay good wood on them

  • HD

    VWAP @ 55

  • BKXtoZERO

    Long DRV 7.63 as daily play, stop 7.48

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • bankwalker

    long /RTY @ 1535.10

  • BKXtoZERO

    +2R TVIX 32.6 but tight

  • Darkthirty

    Let’s see the big picture…P5 up?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    You left a stain in the room.
    Forfeit your deposit $$$

  • BKXtoZERO

    out of 1R from today TVIX from 33.6 at 33.06, holding 2R from 32.6

  • Darkthirty

    You started it, rodent

  • ridingwaves
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG 2743 level (Level 2) yesterday We watch the bounce
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG You had 2741?
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    help me out here Julie, I don’t speak Elliot!

  • Darkthirty

    T Caldero RIP has your A wave as 2 of P5

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    wait! there’s a P5!?
    what the hell happened to the old P3?

  • Darkthirty

    P3 was a manifestation of Prechter. Prechter had people that FOLLOWED him, believing that they were using Ralph Elliot’s wave theory. Prechter was a hack, I’d proven him wrong so many times, that I no longer acknowledged him. Seems the people that have a strong aversion to EWT left a lot of $ on the table. Was the lesson EWT does not work? Well, that would be the easiest answer to the ego, the true error was in FOLLOWING Prechter, without auditing the results. I no longer attempt to reason with anyone on the merits of ANY system whilst they’re cyber screaming BLASPHEMY!! LOL The true lesson never was learned……….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Very close GG 2745 Excellent IMO present bounce up to approx 2765 then down to 2735 for a completed impulse Then a bounce to a lower high perhaps retracing approx 50% an entry for those not short NOW I fave a Level 2 at 2754 so it could fail approx at that level too
    JULIE.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    which means this rally is wave 1 of 3 of P5? So next wave should be 2down of 3 of P5..??

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ah. thanks for the info.

  • Darkthirty

    Due to the concept of fractals, ultimately it depends upon what timeframe you are proposing.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX 60 min 8 ema approx 2762 and a Level 2 at 2765 so bounce may abort any time 2735 (Level 1 ) very important to watch if attained for a bounce to a lower high
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    off to lunch!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Did he die?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    See? EWT is bad for your health. It killed him slowly, one wave pattern at a time!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey guys – I’ve been super busy today. How’s my crew?

  • BKXtoZERO

    By eye I was looking for 2755 to 60

  • Darkthirty
  • BKXtoZERO

    Ouch….You are too much Sir! You probably couldn’t resist the low hanging fruit despite pushing today’s PC limits on jokes

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Great Chief ! 13 degrees as I type Going to be sub zero lows this week Cozy up ! Love it !
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Great Sir. My new indicator is working pretty well. When RW really starts busting my balls that is my signal. Like last year at 2830 and those other ramp tops.

  • evilasevildoes
  • evilasevildoes
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EV Your 2 hr chart below matches my 60 min
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Moving stop down to 2768 on short
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Breaks below 2751.52 IMO this mornings bounce complete
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    So do we have final low of yet another small correction in new bull MKT or massive failure at 2800 area. Find out soon. Cautious as usual for me

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • evilasevildoes

    trannies went lower

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    *cough*

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yup EV Also $BKX busts down thru it’s 21 ema AND TLT continues it’s uptrend. Bonds usually gets it right. Like our Chief Always keep an eye on the Bond Market as it’s 7 times larger than the equity market
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    Re-read your question, and IF that is correct, the target would be 2518 / 2440

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX breaks below 2751.52 per post directly below Bears in control Guys watch 2735 as also posted for a bounce to a lower high
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yup GG TLT Now above the cloud on daily chart. Don’t fight them bonds GG
    JULIE

  • zzezzezz

    Pretty good today (so far). Covered my shorts. 100% cash now.
    Waiting for a drop to around the ES 2735 (for a bounce/scalp) area as I’ve heard several folks mention that here.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I never go full bear-tard.
    LOL.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX 2735 cash
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well played good sir! πŸ™‚

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    (or madam)

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’ll be freezing my ass off next week myself (more details to follow).

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    that’s such a relief

    but I’m still gonna meme it.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e3dd4bca7837273de55080406655b88f89dedeaaba8180726d43a29cbae84731.png

    (watch what the Market does, not what they say)

  • BKXtoZERO

    My Van Tharp trading log entry for today, about how I feel about my trades: https://tenor.com/view/al-bundy-dance-al-bundy-danceoff-gif-5579446

  • zzezzezz

    gotcha, thanks

  • zzezzezz

    Thank you! Yes, I’m a dude πŸ™‚

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    When your ticket gets punched, can we say you zeroed out?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Your daughter does that sometimes πŸ™‚

  • BKXtoZERO

    Ramming Speed!!!!!!!!! Not adding much to technical context today am I ??? I am adding to sentiment so maybe that helps.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aNp5cOXz998

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ALERT
    ALERT
    ALERT

  • zzezzezz
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    2 red days do not make a trend. but one can hope!

    RSI 48 or 50 is to be watch IMHO.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c4e91fbcef3666aa38637129d5ba30ec76f73480449e38675e51d2c602bd10b4.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys SPX Weekly Chart A very ugly candle developing RSI at 60 .. perfect for a correction JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e5e07076d3fc7e2b2cfe3bdc4fe36119e09ad75ce6f638cca3b7a12143dc8a92.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EDIT Weekly RSI attained 60 Perfect for a correction
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    14 months and price is impotent.
    Not a lot of happy greedy bulls.
    Muwahaha.

  • Mark Shinnick

    I wonder if enough bears have capitulated?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Bears sleep.
    They got a big tummy full. They’ll be back.
    πŸ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Mark I didn’t LOL! I was watching the Bond Market and the Banks along with TNX which I reported on blog. Our Chief watches the Bond Market along with the Credit Markets It’s a must Mark
    JULIE

  • HD

    no overlap on that 17 handle rally. 2732 on deck. 5-3-5 taking it down. Imhewo

  • HD

    β€œsystem” traders still not fading EOM rallies….. still.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    under vwap, one hour to go?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TcJ-wNmazHQ

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief You watch the Bond Market Credit Markets and Financials like I do Guys it’s a must Many clues given recently esp the Bond Market and TNX
    JULIE

  • evilasevildoes

    DXY almost 1% up

  • Jason13

    And yet Gold stays unfazed…

  • evilasevildoes

    i trade them all the time

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    (GG raises hand, HYG is a must)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HYG is definitely a must GG
    JULIE

  • HD

    Good study. VWAP was 55, fibs were 60. What are the stats? Some people know.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I *am* trainable.
    LOL.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    LEVEL 1 @ 2735 Level 2’s @ 2728 – 2724 – 2717 – 2705 DAILY 55 ema @ 2711 WEEKLY 21 ema @ 2709
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Out of 1 of 2 R today from 32.5 at 34.2

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Miss type 2717
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    LEVEL 1 @ 2735
    Level 2 @ 2728 – 2724 – 1217 – 2705
    DAILY 55 ema @ 2711
    WEEKLY 21 ema @ 2717

    formatting.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    You cookin with gas GG !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    86 yesterday. who needs gas?
    πŸ˜‰

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    2717 not 1217 it was a miss type I have weeky 21 ema @ 2711
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Off to the Indian buffet. Happy Trading!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I had curry chicken yesterday, PASS.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK have A Great Rest Of Say !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Moving stop down to 2755 from 2768
    JULIE

  • HD

    Keep stacking them up!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Remember the daily 34 ema approx 2732 closely matching LEVEL 1 @ 2735 Oversold 60 min chart … Were nailing it Guys .. Below 2735 additional Level 2’s listed below
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Back To Work Everyone Have A Great Rest Of Day !
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Lower lows and lower highs – all we need to know for now.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Shit runs down hill Sir!

  • BobbyLow

    Absolutely.

    Funny how some things never change.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Ohne Dich!
    (use those safety ropes boyz)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LIPc1cfS-oQ

  • Ronebadger

    Chinese and Japanese markets are down 2-4% this AM

  • Sp00nman

    Here’s a bigger picture of where we are. We filled one gap yesterday and still have a few more below us. Maybe we’re finally getting that move to the other side of “balance” at ~2630s? From what I’m seeing we definitely have the possibility of things getting exciting. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8be1132a8b4a781f3598c69362be82da0457b0d556e85bd1f6119ae005d7b26e.png