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by The MoleNovember 15, 2012

We’ve got drainage people – and I’m not talking about equities. Rather it’s the Dollar that’s starting to look weak and may set itself up for a correction. Let’s review:

The hourly panel reveals some bottom spikes which thus far have been reversed. But as I already pointed out in recent updates – the greenback is now facing the 100-day SMA and there will be blood as the easy coin has been made.

Meanwhile over in the woodshed we’re seeing now signs of life – since I tok this snapshot we are back at the 25-hour SMA. I continue to submit to you that this is the line in the sand that leads us lower. If the spoos breach higher then I will close out my shorts and start taking on long positions. If not then see my target area on the daily panel.

This is my NYSE volume ratio chart and the downtrend is starting to look a bit iffy right now. Not nearly as much selling pressure as yesterday around this time. So be careful and watch the E-Mini for early harbingers of a surprise ramp.

Another update on our EUR/AUD trade: After yesterday’s near perfect entry we have no breached a daily NLBL. This means I’m keeping my lottery tickets in the running. On a retest I may actually load up on more.

More below for my intrepid subs – please step into my lair:
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Not a boatload of setups today but I found a few on the FX side: Here’s the NZD/USD which is now a short as we have slipped below the 100-day SMA. The 25-hour is now our line in the sand, simple.

GBP/USD also looking like a sell here. Watch that 100-hour SMA which was retested today and failed ignominiously. I am short here with a stop above the 100-hour, which is fortunately falling, unlike the 100-day.

EUR/CAD above the NLBL and the SMA and it’s holding – that’s a bonafide long, although if you’re not in yet, don’t chase it as we have seen some long candles here. Best to wait for a little shake out and then get long.

CAD/JPY – I heart this setup!! Make me a t-shirt! Seriously, we are back at the resistance line after shooting the bears in the kneecaps. I would love to see a push higher here and the NLBL will be our trigger. Until that happens I am actually short but hoping to be stopped out so that I can ride the elevator up.


Keep it frosty guys and don’t let your emotions or rational mind play tricks on you (especially the latter). Always let your winners run until target or your stop. Ignore the noise and especially stay away from lofty predictions. In other words – keep it real. By the looks of it we’ll get a technical reason to take profits soon enough. But if you have held out all the way down to here then my hat is off to you! Discipline and hard work pays after all 😉


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Drainage

    “Well, if it’s in me, it’s in you. There are times when I look at people and I see nothing worth liking. I want to earn enough money that I can get away from everyone.”

  • molecool

    Well said – and that’s how I feel rather often (unfortunately).

  • Tronacate

    flipped es……l es lgc…..lSI

  • molecool

    You guys went quiet – where went all that mojo?

  • ridingwaves

    apple looking at 500 target, which would line up well with 1320spx 

  • Tronacate

    stopped out…

  • molecool

    Hey Tron – I think you’re going a bit overboard with your comments. If everyone would post their every move we’d have a mess at our hands. Can you please reduce it to comments that might benefit others? Like a chart with a setup for instance? Thanks for your understanding.

  • Darth_Gerb

    I was going to post a sexy milkshake, but what the hell, a chart is better.
    the slide will continue until morale improves.

  • Tronacate

    no problem…….

  • itslance

    VIX dropping like a rock!

  • Skynard

    Looking like some Mojo here, the 5 min pos div has played out:)

  • ridingwaves

    this little thrust up might make the candle similar to circled ones on latest fib fan touch…

    financials were the fuel

  • Schwerepunkt

    Still below the 25-hr at the close.

  • itslance

     Yep, held again.  Looked like there was a lot of energy expended trying to bust through.

  • Darth_Gerb

    speaking of XLF….getting closer to 15 even.

    WAIT: did I say closer? father away….by two cents today! – what is it with two cents!?!?

  • AmazingLarry

    You might be onto something. Did you see the mega volume gap between like $430 and $480?

    Weekly BPNDX…

  • AMCabrera
  • BobbyLow

    I was able to go long EUR/GBP right after the close on 11/13 and it was a marginal long at that time.  Perhaps it will be a good trade. 

    I added to my existing Long on EUR/USD right after today’s close and sold to close the USD/CAD Flat.

    My other two open currency positions are both Shorts – USD/CHF and NZD/CAD  

    Of course who knows what evil lurks in the minds of the IMF and all Finance Ministers overnight.   🙂

  • AMCabrera

    ahhh but it the evils that lurk in our minds that is the worry. It is my opinion that this market continues to venture in well known areas because I think to many are looking for the unknown.

  • AMCabrera

    I can ONLY imagine the shit that is in the air especially the local radio talk shows, you probably know what Im talking about since your from the south, great example is 106.3 chop full of complete idiocy.. My goodness someone mentioned at the gym that succession was talked about..(roll eyes) 

  • BobbyLow

    I hear ya.  It sure is a little “different” down in these here parts.  

    Do they still fly “The Stars and Bars” at the Columbia State House?   🙂

    I have to admit that even though I live in NC, I was born and raised in the Northeast and am one of those so called “Damn Yankee” transplants who came to visit NC and stayed. 

    I also lived in Florida for 10 years before that so I think I’ve been able to gather a pretty wide perspective on things.  Some of which can be pretty scary if I allow myself to think about it too much.  LOL

    As far as radio talk shows go, all they accomplish is riling the Yahoo’s up. 

    And Life is to Short to be riled up.  

  • newbfxtrader

    Thx senor. I guess its time!

  • AMCabrera

    Actually, I think it is. Btw out of nzd/usd short from this morning and adding more to eur/gbp long this might be a really nice one.

  • Skynard

    Yen, OUCH! 🙂

  • Darth_Gerb

    oh calm down.
    I looked expecting a Fukushima meltdown, and (yawn).
    how much leverage’d are you!? (rhetorical, no need to reply)

    EDIT: oh there is your graphic, you meant daily. my bad.

  • Darth_Gerb

    Risk < 60, I drink your MILK SHAKE.
    here's the straw.$BPSPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=7&id=p09729150733

  • newbfxtrader

    200+pip move in usd/jpy. That’s pretty big for that pair in a day.

  • Skynard

    Lol, it could get ugly. Getting some popcorn:)

  • ridingwaves

    hard to tell with apple around xmas..but if it tags the 360sma it will almost wiped out all 2012 gains, could be a great bounce with strong xmas as they always report strong qtr after xmas..

  • Skynard

    Stop in:)

  • Skynard


    What are you thinking? Still trading soft? Talk about a wind up:)

  • Darth_Gerb
  • Rightside_ot_trade

    I didn’t get back long on /CT today in the march
    After nearing 25dma

    So I’m flat softs, will take a long in SB if it holds that daily 25 lower BB
    Just have a few currency longs right now Aud/jpy

  • Skynard

    Yep, thinking the same. Would love to see one more move down.

  • AmazingLarry

    A wind with a shaky looking “floor.” Look at JJS monthly. 🙁

  • Skynard

    Ya, think that the 100 needs a touch before a good long:) 

  • Darth_Gerb

    I love these photos, only one guy had an action plan.
    the other’s….Drama.

  • molecool

    ¨°º¤ø„¸  N E W  „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸