Discretionary Trading
Now Reading
Easter Monday
168

Easter Monday

by The MoleApril 2, 2018

Easter Monday is still celebrated as a national holiday in several traditionally catholic countries. Not surprisingly Spain is one of them as the Spaniards will rarely miss out on an opportunity to take a day off from work. Which means that I most likely am the only person working here in Valencia today, so let’s get this over with! 😉

The whole crypto space has turned into one big bumbling mess over the past few weeks, which is a good thing as it shakes out all the HODL monkeys and eventually bestows us with juicy entry opportunities.

So the time to strike may be drawing near in some select pairs – Ethereum may be one of them. If you look at the daily panel you see a chart that is slowly transitioning into a down trending formation.

Or at least it’s pretending to be which is where we come in. I’m not ready to strike right here right now today. However it seems to me that the sell off has been slowing down judging by that pinched hourly Bollinger. Which is promising and leaves the door open for a surprise spike higher.

What I would like to see is a push higher followed by a retest. This is where I would get long as most of the sellers would prepare for another leg lower.

Our E-mini campaign is proceeding as hoped but there has been a bit of pushback after it had advanced a little over 1R. I’m advancing my stop to break/even at this point as the current formation MUST proceed higher now or this whole thing is going to turn into a major wipe out lower.

Copper also looking pretty good as it’s gapped higher overnight and looks like it may be ready to make a run for it. I’m leaving my stop at ISL for now but will advance to break/even if it manages to breach 1R.

ZB looking awesome as well – we really nailed a perfect entry here. If you missed out on this campaign or others then get over yourself and sign up as a full member right now.

I’ve lifted my trail to 145 and plan to sacrifice a medium rare porterhouse to the market Gods assuming I can find a place that’s open today.

Now if you thought the Mole would be slacking off today just because everyone else is doing it here in Spain then you would be sadly mistaken. Plenty of new setups below the fold:

evil_separator

It's not too late - learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don't waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

BTC: 1MwMJifeBU3YziDoLLu8S54Vg4cbnJxvpL
BCH: qqxflhnr0jcfj4nejw75klmpcsfsp68exukcr0a29e
ETH: 0x9D0824b9553346df7EFB6B76DBAd1E2763bE6Ef1
LTC: LUuoD6sDWgbqSgnpo5hceYPnTD9MAvxi6c

  • Mark Shinnick

    current formation MUST proceed … whew.

  • ridingwaves

    AMZN taking on chin, the big whales in the market are being attacked, riding the whale tail is the place to be right now….

  • ridingwaves

    ID forming on VIX daily…

  • HD

    these coil patterns are notoriously unpredictable but I do think we have enough data to consider. Still projects similar symmetry targets. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/91da921ffabf25bb31d543e229e425d730dd82ecb2be341a107fb3bdfb48fc55.png

  • HD

    measures (89)

  • ridingwaves

    XLF forming bear flag, Ronebadger would be better qualified to make that assessment….if it gives, market dives…

  • ridingwaves

    took S on NFLX, 290 S, target 225

  • HD

    $SPX (55) point hit from Friday if they want to give us an E wave up.

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    Short order in at 2618, if this is a trend day then VWAP should hold and that looks like a good place to ride it back down.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Just reversed my shorts.

  • ridingwaves

    thursday looks like another throw bulls a candle day….6550 COMP is doable

  • ridingwaves

    XLF looks bad right now

  • Mark Shinnick

    Standing aside…see what happens.

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    Getting ugly…breadth is saying lots more room to go down today as well.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Rebot

  • ridingwaves

    L or S?

  • Mark Shinnick

    L labu

  • Mark Shinnick

    Agree this is a volatility ID.

  • ridingwaves

    spx is going to lose the 200….its over…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Good case for that.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Trouzzer_Snake

    I think the 200 is a red herring, real line in sand is on the weekly. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0ad69f379979788d5fc4d3ed47bc74da9d0cacac01254992f8aaec9056146540.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Red herrings – excellent principle. All the indicators are used as a psychological leverage in one way or another.

  • ridingwaves

    is europe open today? NOPE,caught them folks with the fake up candle..

  • BKXtoZERO

    nice job on your bunny love lottery tickets. I should have kept a small portion on.

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    Makes sense to me. A little relief at that level would fit in nicely.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Now threatening to go outside. That long worked too well and was too fast so bear still gnawing.

  • HD

    no E wave, do not pass go. Not a bull market….

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    Well that worked, let’s see how much of a bounce it gets. Nice one!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Trouzzer_Snake

    The Monday after Easter no less… The market couldn’t resist.

  • ridingwaves

    BOT buying at 257.10 SPY

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    dam, Mole has to go on Vacation.
    I only have to take a water cooler Break!
    LoL

  • HD

    was there news?

  • BobbyLow

    Afternoon folks. Hope everyone had a nice weekend.

    Oil short 3X OILD looking good so far today but the way this thing has been changing directions on shorter time frames, we’ll see if this move has any legs.

  • Julie

    SPX Previously I posted about a smaller triangle within a larger triangle. Possible resolution today with a breakdown
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Butt ugly for equity bulls. I have to admit to just a “tiny” bit of Schadenfreude because the bulls have had it so easy for such a very long time.

  • ridingwaves

    I would like a retest of here of 200, then take another short trip…edit…..SPY above 200 already…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Margin calls & liquidations with fresh low on BTC?
    Check.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYXBT&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p91578359578

  • Mark Shinnick

    just bot labu

  • Tomcat

    Time to hold the nose, and BTFD @2500

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    If you go digging at ZeroEdge I’m sure you find plenty.

  • Julie

    Hi RW SPX the 233 ema is approx. 2574. The previous bounce was exactly off the 233 ema. If lower possibly 2461?
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I wouldn’t. If you’re a Zero sub then you know why.

  • Ian Naugler

    Hoping for 5800-6k to back up the truck long on BTC…we’ll see

  • Julie

    The February bounce
    JULIE

  • Tomcat

    No Zeros can help a Bull at heart like me 😉

    Anyway, jk aside, don’t be shocked to see a green hammer candle similar to Feb 9th, which will execute my 2500 limit buy on ES.

  • Tomcat

    Ian I thought you are a HODL? Or do I have you confused?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    looking at the Feb low, it’s possible for a boundary reverse on your numbers.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYXBT&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p75303006764

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    LOL.

    it’s the blue moon. most definitely. {/sarc}

  • Julie

    AMZN Watching the lower trend line of an expanding triangle and it’s 89 ema.JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9c04b00828e0d544584fd768ff0e7edb7968efd1e6e6ab4c9a87cb9b7e2a964a.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    go with a Fib Fan. wedges can be a let down IMHO.
    🙂

  • Julie

    OK GG
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    4 year chart….ah, about $1200.
    criminey!

  • Julie

    Approx 1050 is where the expanding triangle began which is usually the target on a breakdown. Just saying GG
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Tomcat

    I wouldn’t bet against the orange puppet which seems adamant to take AMZN down. He doesn’t give a shite about triangles or MACDs

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    Hi TC I have been reading about what you have just posted. Seems to be in the cards attested by the price action. Everyone and their little brother is going to attempt to pick an entry (bottom)
    JULIE

  • HD

    2659-89= 2570, ding

  • Julie

    GG BAC Watchjng the 144 ema. A bounce here possible target the confluence of the declining 21 and 55 emas Also oversold and at a support JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cc783d6e0bc48ad8c905d1ac98df773f5a07dd36ac4e9a01fec57c88c0be8e95.png

  • Julie

    GG You beat me to it Good job Bro !
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    covered the labd long

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • StockTalker

    Snapback to 23800

  • Julie

    GG David Carradine I believe ?
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ADP numbers come out Wednesday,
    maybe that’s a magic day.

    ps, the middle pitch fork is a looong way down.

    SPX
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/94b4a72b54351b6b4cd147c696c59f729f3b0909d83315c158e38035d3edcdc2.png

  • HD

    SPX sliced 200DMA at 2589 and backtested. IDK, oldschool but effective. A lot of eyes on closing against that I would think.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    correct. a flash back scene to the shao lin temple.

  • Julie

    SPX Very exciting Down to the 233 ema where the February occurred. RSI positive divergence developing . Oversold full stochs 13,3,3 and the MACD is at a level where the February bounce occurred. Bulls must come alive now or down to 2461 which is two equal legs down from the end of January high JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/55bd6acff591f5726a38cb8121df0c4f1b51767e895a07acd9fed5ea27950f27.png

  • HD

    Good eyes Julie- There is a 1 year TL from last April too.

  • Julie

    Thanks HD Good eye on the April trend line
    JULIE

  • HD
  • Julie

    SEDG Trading the oversold bounce off the 34 ema. Will add with a close above the 5 ema. Showing relative strength against the SPX. Watching the volume on the bounce which is not strong. Just a quickie guys ! Lol ! JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a87d28c76e19d472330c65c413c9226fc4d9e53f813109611fc378d75f67cd23.png

  • ridingwaves

    SPX is heading to heading to 2460….

  • HD

    Agree, not all in 1 day though. the VIX was 19, -3% is too much. Think they will try to close at 200

  • Julie

    RW my target too Bro
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    XLF is crucial piece of pie right now…if energy and COMP keep bleeding it could be this week, liquidity drain with tax date coming…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    check this heatmap out. healthcare is the last straw.

    https://finviz.com/map.ashx

    “Surprises to the downside Gentlemen”

  • Julie

    RW BAC closely mirrors the Banking Index $BKX
    JULIE

  • HD
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Best of luck – I’m a bit more cautious given the current conditions.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I always dreamed of retiring in style.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Tisk tisk – that’s like Evil Speculator 101, Julie!

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    Plenty left in the clip for a day of carnage.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Europe’s closed.

  • Julie

    SEDG Out for some lunch money only ! Sheesh ! I said a quickie only !
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    Dead guy told me “it’s a quality of life issue”. People see the world differently. Turn a guy in a suit’s necktie around and put him on his hands and knees, now He’s on a leash, owned. A lot of us see society that way, Live free or die…………………

  • Julie
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    wikiwiki

  • ridingwaves

    2651 200 on XLF,

    the 200 cross on VIX I mentioned 10 days ago is standing out like sore thumb

  • Mark Shinnick

    Continuous gnawing.

  • ridingwaves

    what a perfect setup this was, fake bull candle on Thursday, Europe open on Friday while US closed, nice green day and now europe closed today and US floundering to 1000pt lost, the pain will be fathomable tomorrow for them…..

  • ridingwaves

    should go up here, looking for bounce of XLF off 200

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    I see no signal yet…but agree this is a potential reversal zone.

  • Julie
  • Mark Shinnick

    RealDeal simply catches no bid where expected.

  • Darkthirty

    Do algos recognize gaps? got a couple open yet……….

  • Darkthirty

    It’d look good, wrapped around a tree!

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    Ok – I see the reverse starting to form. Closed short and looking for long once confirmed.

  • Julie

    SEDG I went long an oversold bounce off the daily 34 ema. Took some profit (very small i.e. lunch money) Ideally want to now short this low volume bounce. Target the daily 55 ema matching a support and lower Keltner channel. Will wait for a reversing candle on the daily chart Patience JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ffd18392b97a4ae6d2ce79dbe8dfb42711909953e79a80108e95d7943deb2689.png

  • ridingwaves
  • Julie

    No! I had one in college. I loved it ! It was great !
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    dude, so dark….follow the lightthirty…..master Yoda any help with him, a potential Sith he may be….

  • Mark Shinnick

    long

  • Darkthirty

    Fractured clavicles are standard with these models

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    long what, BTC?

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    Long ES @ 2564

  • ridingwaves

    be careful, bots could play into dow theory sell….

  • Darkthirty

    2567 is the breakline

  • Mark Shinnick

    Bids fail…

  • Tomcat

    I am the youngest Julie. But that hasn’t stopped me from kicking their asses

  • ridingwaves

    all hell breaks lose if VIX gets above 26 and change….keeping it contained https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7eb316731c3ede00a4f8742aafb899f4afcaea5c4e7ade27a7ce799308d2bb42.png

  • Julie

    $RUT Let’s not space out the “Small Caps ” guys ! Yipes ! JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6136bd6108857f5241020025ae81ac94a4f23d2a7c9291e8951428d166190c0b.png

  • Trouzzer_Snake
  • Mark Shinnick

    Seems like a bloff is necessary.

  • Ronebadger

    NYSE DownVol / Up Vol ration is 13.7. Isn’t there some old rule about days like this with any ratio over 10…like there’s always a snapback?

  • Darkthirty

    How much smoke does PPT have?

  • Julie

    9 : 1 Usually 2 of them within 5 trading days.and a rally which is usually a dead catter. Need a 9 :1 up day
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    snuck out of lunch, …whoa that’s gonna leave a mark. (not me)

    TVIX, rock on.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TVIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p06602458250

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    does rut still look good in my silver chart?
    pretty much.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24RUT&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p43908735269

  • Tomcat

    If vol is any indication (eerily similar to Feb 8) I think we are very close to a bottom here and unfortunately I may not get a fill on ES @2500 and NQ @6250.

  • Julie

    SEDG Got out of long i.e. oversold bounce off the 34 ema possibly a little early. Made lunch money only. Looking at 54.35 to complete the bounce then a possible short
    JULIE

  • Julie
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’ve seen better lines on ZeroH*dge.
    =P

  • HD

    Now the Vix is 26…. room for a 3% day, after the fact.

  • Julie

    ABMD Breaking below the Ichi Cloud baseline (21) Target approx. 261 matching (1) daily 55 ema (2) Support zone (3) Upper cloud boundary (4) Lower Keltner channel JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/93bf1838050c41e018fb5dac30a07ffe09116490fc445af652fd8920338d893b.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    bot labd…see if bids can hold..

  • Julie

    GG Speaking of lines …… I got a great tan line in Hawaii !
    JULIE.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    see me after class.

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    Well I’m done for the day. 30 handles on the way down and 8 on the way up 🙂

  • Julie

    Nice one Mark LABD up over the 89 ema. IMO Watch the 144 ema matching a resistance zone. At the resistance zone the RSI should be approx. 70 and the CCI at 200 JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a7359d1b9473524bae0ffe15ef689095fe04a70ddc58005eaf3ec3a5e7536aeb.png

  • Julie

    Good job TS. I am on the sidelines waiting for targets to be reached on present posts
    JULIE

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    Thanks!

  • Mark Shinnick

    Its only the trading instrument basing off other symbols.

  • ridingwaves

    soon….XLF is now having tough time crawling back up….no energy, tech guys yelling at each other…..maybe tomorrow or wednesday

    256 SPY bot now getting worn down…

  • ridingwaves

    IBB in big trouble here….yikes there are dominoes ready to fall everywhere

  • Mark Shinnick

    Good that it looks that way…you know?

  • Julie

    RW is on it ! The FANGers all below their respective 55 ema’s Them leaders are a busting down ! IBB closes below the February low then a series of lower highs and lower lowers in another leading sector
    JULIE

  • Julie

    $BKX One year chart. You can see the 89 – 144 and 233 ema’s have contained all declines. A breakdown now of the 233 ema and YIPES ! ! JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9774507ac8e2ff4a8120da4d92e05621d3a4e139076c15dfd2611baa5aa7dbe1.png

  • HD

    VIX lags, today is a great example of how badly.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Indeed – well done.

  • BobbyLow

    I think we’re seeing similar things RW.

    Hat’s off to the few day traders here who can really pick turns well and I really respect what they’re able to do. On the longer term, I think the Bull is getting stuck with banderillas at least once or twice a week now. At some point maybe it just keels over. 🙂

  • HD

    30 handle rally into the close, I was early, again…

  • HD

    Closed 10 handles under the 200DMA, trap or crash?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Looks like you guys all had fun today. For some reason I started to feel like crap after the gym and had to take a few hours off. I think I’m pushing myself too much lately – worked through the weekend (again) on some marketing stuff I’m doing with Scott.

  • ridingwaves

    yep, its perfect time to play volatility….

  • Julie

    HD Like RW says it is all up to the banks now ($BKX) They break below the daily 233 ema (chart below) AND …… ! !
    JULIE

  • Julie

    Take care of yourself Chief ! I had a great day. Made a little going long SEDG off the oversold bounce of the 34 ema and got out
    JULIE

  • Mary

    Rest and relaxation is part of work. — Peter Urban

  • HD

    you guys are smarter than me. I can’t correlate anything. Narrow focus on SPX when volatility is high.

  • HD

    Always push. Hope it pays off for you. For some of us this market is as good as it ever has been or will be. Making the most of that opportunity and everything else on hold including my spring bear hunt. grrr

  • Julie

    HD Keep an eye on the semi’s too. Checkout their relationship with their 89 and 144 ema’s. A bearish close below the 144 ema will be extremely negative JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8878935cd019f324e0ff07bbc148544f227391b8b77496a1af7059214e60244b.png

  • Darkthirty

    You know you’re over the hill when your mind makes a promise that your body can’t fill. When you hit the wall, remember that walls are meant to be breached………..

  • Julie

    HD Go Spring bear hunting. There will always be a trade like Mark and BL say. One of the best things I did was to go to Hawaii for a break
    JULIE

  • HD

    yes! how was it. I did mexico for 10 days and feel like there was already a heavy opportunity cost to that.

  • Julie

    HD It was second honeymoon. If I was 25 I would probably come back expecting twins maybe triplets ! LOL !
    JULIE

  • HD

    ha! sounds fun.

  • Julie

    We had a great time HD. We will be taking a vacation every 6 mos from here on
    JULIE

  • kim
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • grednfer

    I think this day 14 of the downtrend since 2804…..OMG
    I wonder how much longer it will last.
    This is my grade school trading technique
    I thought it would walk out this morning as time usually kills downtrends.
    Where’s it going?
    Test 2530?
    If that doesn’t hold its 2400?
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3c8bda42cf93b7c96c8c2adacf8c073ce4e30e4913245fcb971a0250b39b6bae.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Bear gnawing on a tough piece of Bull. The time element you are mentioning is pretty normal if the multi-year trend has reversed.

  • ridingwaves

    if it keeps trend, it would seem a bounce to green line in the AM could happen..then re-short..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I dunno. but when it get’s really fun? Mole pulls out a PnF.
    it’s been a long time, I hope I’m not stealing his thunder.

    he may have in the subscriber area already.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/814e1a6e08d55f90996a64c8173073b6067a31dd083906baa9525b3a387483c6.png