Easy Now!
Easy Now!
Welcome back to the jungle! Courtesy of diminished EOY volume I’m seeing some signs of possible monkey business today and have a sneaking suspicion some longs are being led into a short term trap:
Well, well – what do we have here? Mr. ViX up by almost 5.5% while the SPX is up for the day (thus far)?
Un peu suspecte, n’est ce pas? Especially when copper is pointing DOWN for the day. So this is what I think is going to happen…
[amprotect=nonmember] More charts and cynical commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.[/amprotect] [amprotect=1,13,9,12,5] You probably remember that inverse H&S and my suggestion that it’s not unusual to see a fake out push higher before a fake out drop below the neckline. After all we can’t have a juicy move to the upside with all the retail riff raff on board, right? So, I think they may pop this a bit higher maybe to 1280 or 1290. Why there you ask?
That’s why – plus there is a weekly NLBL at 1277.56 – which ought to be good for some short term gyrations. And then there’s that dropping diagonal on the monthly chart – if you don’t know what I’m talking about then go back to my last few posts please.
By the way, speaking of copper – if it drops down to 3.3 then I’d wager a long position with a stop right below that diagonal. Again, don’t think pencil – think crayon, we are talking futures here and they can fake you out. Which means – use a small position so that you can afford a decent stop.
Wheat is approaching a possible short setup as it’s approaching its 100-day SMA. After that many white/green candles this ought to be good for at least a little drop to separate the retail chaff – hehe 🙂
Cocoa – I know I’m starting to sound like a broken record. But if you are not long yet then you be happy to hear that it’s still clinging to that 2210 NLBL. This is also starting to resemble a floor pattern and although it may try to shake us off once more I think the odds for some upside are increasing. No guarantees – we all know that – so let’s just stick with the setup for now.
And that’s all I got for today, nothing on the FX front except that the ZeroFX really kicked ass last night!
[/amprotect]Cheers,
