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End Of Easy ECB Money?
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End Of Easy ECB Money?

by The MoleSeptember 12, 2018

EUR/USD price action over the past few months has been range bound between about 1.155 and 1.175. So we are roughly talking about 200 pips of churn here, which over the summer has created a state of relative equilibrium between Euro bulls and bears. Now tomorrow (Thursday) the ECB is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision and as it is widely-expected to begin whittling down its bond purchases.

The ECB press conference begins at 8:30 AM EST followed by the US CPI for the month of August just 45 minutes later. Both events combined make for a potentially volatile backdrop in EUR/USD as economic drivers from both sides of the atlantic will be in the spotlight near the open of the Thursday trading session.

The daily panel shown on the right does a good job of showing us the churn of the past few months. Not surprisingly the first stab lower was quickly bought back and as the daily Bollingers now are in the process of converging a final resolution is drawing nigh.

No matter what volatility we’ll see tomorrow the key ranges IMNSHO are 1.175 on the bullish and 1.148 on the bearish side – give or take a few pips. Or is it pippis in Europe?

On the Dollar side things have been range bound as well but with a rising bias. I took out a long campaign on the DX last week and was hoping to be able to advance to break/even before the ECB announcement. Which obviously didn’t happen but I would nevertheless usually stick with my guns.

However the DX roll over is about to happen and I’ll have to close this position out anyway. So my decision here is to advance my stop to break/even and if it hasn’t been touched by tonight I’ll close it out manually. Whether or not a re-entry is in order will be decided post ECB announcement.

What I will keep holding however is my USD/JPY position which is once again in the green – trail now goes to ~0.7R

Not sure if you recall but we actually took almost the same entry a bit over a week ago and it worked out very well for us. Let’s hope our streak continues 😉

Here’s the E-Mini. I really hope you subs were at least as lucky as me and didn’t get stop swept or perhaps even managed to secure a lower entry. It’s looking solid now but of course a lot can happen between today and tomorrow.

Remember that this one is rolling over as well and we’ll have to advance to the December 2018 contract now. I personally will do the same here as I’ve suggested for the DX futures campaign above.

Corn is looking like it’s finally ready to make a run for it. Quite frankly it’s make or break time here, otherwise the bearish trend will once more make itself felt. Judging by the pinched Bollingers on the hourly panel, resolution of this coiling pattern should be right around the corner.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Edgy

    Feeling a bit nervous on the ES_F this morning. But still holding the line….

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I don’t know about you but my emotions do not correlate well with actual price performance. So relax 😉

  • Edgy

    True. And it’s also why I’ve been looking into writing algos.

  • Edgy

    Another start-of-ramp stopsweep. My natural tendency is to lean toward conspiracies, but in this day of federally funded bot-trading, do you think these long-tail dips are organic? I’m honestly asking.
    It is possible it’s from the combination of all the different traders actually out there trading in real time, only some are faster now. But then there’s the so-called PPT, and we had FOMO, then POMO, and there’s still Bond sales.. all that money goes somewhere from the prop desks.

  • ridingwaves

    WTIC PNF pointing towards 105….
    a blow off top fuel supplier

  • HD

    GM Mole all, Thx for the corn charts.

    HWB gets it’s props 90% of the time. -10 handles from yesterdays fib. See if they BOTs show up.

  • StockTalker

    Nice little fake out, big move will be tomorrow. Yep, all about the dollar here. See if she holds the 95 or not.

  • Mark Shinnick

    I’m doing shortside equities today so far.

  • StockTalker

    /NQ weekly is a sell

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAC Short Yes ! SPX dump lower high on bounce Yes !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    need some follow-thru! or take the money and RUN.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BAC&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p72447667356

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    still a range trade is USO IMHO, but it wouldn’t take long to move upward.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USO&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p25318816098

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Like HD Thanks Chief for corn chart, I wish the corn etf traded more volume What instrument do you recommend .?
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    check out the weekly, you know me, add 4 years, looks like its about to break out….a tribute to our host….
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nQ8wSMSHoJ8

  • Mark Shinnick

    Saw other glitches too. Could be important.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAC GG is correct taking profit
    JULIE

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    There it is… Big spike up.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Also out of UNG long for break even
    JULIE

  • HD
  • HD

    How big would you trade a 90% set up? 🙂

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Today’s intraday reversal has a smell to it ! Get rid of the PPT Now !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    GDX, almost +3%

    metals up. Wasn’t there talk about a big copper seller yesterday?

    https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=HG&p=h1

  • Edgy

    ES_F comeback with a vengeance. What the actual flying flip?

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Ummmm….. Full size?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    WSJ reports new trade talks with China and Mexico – on bloomberg…

  • HD

    exactly.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    more like the New Moon.
    😉

    https://www.timeanddate.com/moon/phases/

  • HD

    the roll

  • BKXtoZERO

    Speaking of “Easy Money” I liked Moles “Green” post where he talked about how nice it is to wake up with your positions in the green. NUGT looking pretty good today! Maybe I got me some “Easy Money” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJBLfNrn77s

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s my crew?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ..depending on the trader, love it or leave it.

    I have a rule, 3 big moves intraday? done!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7b1531b8fc3bf1516637f42acbb0622c5716e75976b2801fe89bbdafd21c6a61.png , and I’m done.

  • StockTalker

    Wheat!! Lose 500 and kiss her goodbye.

  • BKXtoZERO

    On the bus Sir….. heading in the right direction too. Hoping for a nice trip.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    u still in nugt?

  • BKXtoZERO

    Yes. I have been taking entries and stopping out a few times so I took some small losses but side stepped any real damage. I am in with avg. Price of 11.4. Also in USLV at 5.85. Both are attempts at a multi month trade with larger than trading size positions

  • ridingwaves

    any melt up in equities might have dollar depreciation to help it…so it might play out well, plus so many short, very overcrowded there…

  • Edgy

    Been sweating it out… Doing yard work, that is. Every time I check back on my ES_F long, it’s swung another 10 points in the opposite direction from the last! Still green, though, for now.

  • Edgy

    Have you seen the charts comparing US indices vs the rest of the world? There’s a belief it’s decoupled since May, with the US rockin’ with it’s rooster out.

  • HD

    Sept, day 7 under 2900.

  • ridingwaves

    i’m up 22% since May….foreign money pouring into us debt and equities, seen safer right now, making up for wall of worry meme..3000 seems like a great target but melt up could go to 3100…wait….I just saw a blue moon phase into red sunset so I take that all back….

  • HD

    C=A 2842

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    back from lunch.

    I’d love to pick up some sweet-sweet miners. but that’s emotion speaking.
    (I’m also done for the day)

    some follow-thru with RSI above 50? that’s logic speaking.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5a0976e082ac57baecdb86b20ecff45e06ead165737d3a0e47cc177dcba50d80.png
    -GG

  • Yoda

    you snooze, you lose
    just kidding 😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    LOL.
    think they’ll pay out a cash dividend this year?

    https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/gdx/dividend-history

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAC A 55 ema and MACD center line test. I covered my short earlier for a small profit.Also BAC at support of Ichi Cloud upper boundary. May re enter tomorrow short. SPX still on sidelines Bought some SLV above it’s daily 5 ema on 60 min chart today. SLV next hurdle is 13.42
    JULIE

  • Yoda

    One of those good days that make up for several bad days

  • BKXtoZERO

    He he he he. Gold bitchez…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    BPSPX,
    while price is king, sentiment has, never been so ‘on-the-fence’.

    200 weekly
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/51a6af2d680266886eb9cf344c862805638b3346cb860997a00bd29e644f3398.png

  • HD
  • randomuser6789

    yes. loving it.

  • HD

    Kudos to the scientists who predicted this 25 years ago. These are massive systems. I’d be at least 50 miles inland if you’re an east coaster.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD September kicks off hurricane season. I did not realize the number of storms in the Pacific. I read that in 1941 the Japanese Fleet on it’s way to Pearl Harbor was in one of the worst storms ever recorded in the Pacific
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    equatorial. conspiracy.
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    or STATISTICAL perfection.
    Peak Hurricanes Bitchez.

    http://www.hurricanescience.org/images/hss/WeatherUnderGroundAtlanticHurrSeasonImage_plainbackground.gif
    *short* generators

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Honestly every single year the media acts as if it’s anything out of the ordinary. It’s annoying.

  • HD

    2017 hurricane season cost $371,000,000,000 and killed over 3,000 people.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD When I was in high school I remember 200 + MPH winds hitting the Oregon Coast
    JULIE

  • HD

    Wow. That’s insane.

  • HD

    I remember the CL trade last hurricane season. Not taking any oil trades right now.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    It was discussed here. Attention competition for eye and clicks. Call me a misogynist, but I miss the World where most of Congress & the News was male based. Fuck the Chicken Little’s.

    https://static1.squarespace.com/static/579fa3912994ca0eff850271/579fa58dff7c505582d5b217/59fd1fc7ec212d473484dacd/1521304591866/sky-is-falling.jpg?format=500w

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD The Oregon and Washington Coasts can get hammered in the winter. People actually fly into Portland and go to the coast to see it.I have seen the storms on many occasions. There are observations where you can see the activity. Don’t mess with Mother Nature
    JULIE

  • HD

    FWIW it appears we lost the 17 algo and I have seen them run 2-10 handle algos. Back to normal. Countertrend?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    that she went to high school?
    Yeah, I AGREE!
    ;-D

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG LOL ! I even graduated from college. I beat the 10,000 to 1 odds LOL !
    JULIE

  • HD

    “Hold my beer and watch this!”

    …Hurricane Florence

  • HD

    There’s a lot of chem trails over there.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’d love to fly to Washington, and get hammered.
    damn it still hot here in Hell.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    My point exactly. I don’t know what they put into the water but people’s memories seem to have a half life time of six months.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Okay, I bite – does anyone have annual statistics? U.S. – worldwide?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Chief Weather patterns repeat themselves.There is supposedly a 20 year cycle in weather.
    JULIE

  • Yoda

    yup

  • Yoda

    Hurricane Florence is a doozy

  • Yoda

    Perhaps. In any event, I don’t trade those for dividends.

  • HD

    Doesn’t have 16-17 but a good starting list.

    https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/hurrarchive.asp

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Julie a gone MoFo if I see that thing coming !
    JULIE

  • HD

    “Biggest we’ve ever seen”. You don’t believe him? 🙂

    https://youtu.be/E_BbtED0tHY

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    For the cougar that loves platty.

    800-810 looks to be horizontal line of battle.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dda35c9d46c2550a878e55b072ec3e4f704ea1543e62923a3fefd33176a2c367.png

    -GG

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Cougar Guidebook ! Too Much ! LOL !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    In these hard economic times, I’m handing out pamphlets to young men, of the dangers of aggressive cougars.

    It’s a missionary outreach. and perhaps a 501c3 write off.

    https://11g5qr3d681b1oegpc332c9y-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/what-she-wants.gif

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Tomorrow I will show you a card that my husband gave me Where on earth do you find these things I am laughing so hard I am crying ! Too Much !JULIE

  • amity

    What do you mean by “… classic set up. SPX HH and DJI not.”?

  • bankwalker

    The domain name cougars.com is for sale with a reserve price of 75k. Auction ended yesterday with no buyers. It seems like some enterprising soul could make some money with that domain for a mere 75k.

  • Benson Burns

    All hail the God Emperor of All Mankind!

  • Benson Burns

    Back on your point the other day about the wedges on the VIX (shown RVX weekly, but hey…) look at the period of the triangles reducing.
    Interesting shit.

  • randomuser6789

    Impressive spike on the zero.

  • ridingwaves

    you could probably buy .net., .business, .us for $15.00
    that URL is way overpriced…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    East Coast is getting slight break as dry air and shear is keeping it from strengthening much more before landfall…that volume hole strikes again….its on left of rotation
    https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eus/13/1000×1000.jpg

  • Mark Shinnick

    Going through Beverly Hills, a large % of vacant shops. Obviously, a real estate investment opportunity ….buy and use the spreadsheet to calculate your profitable rental rate ….and there you go!

  • ridingwaves

    I wonder if Silver could get in single digits…the gold silver ratio is 85, current past 65 was thought to be high….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    …..Yeah…..I wonder who owns all that crap….using their computers to calculate the rents with such precision.

  • ridingwaves

    I’m going to run with DRV after election…..commercial RE takes forever to turn but like you I believe it’s near….

  • HD
  • HD

    Hi amity, the DJI is the only index to not make a HH, new ATH this year. Typically an inflection time. Now today, shorter timeframe, DJI made HH above August and SPX did not.

  • Mark Shinnick

    I watch Simon. Amazed at that guy, partied at his house before his public offering, visited with his mom there in BH. He did a great job.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    hence my 3 moves-and-out rule.

    sure, you could have got lucky. or not. but that’s no way to make consistent money. (Luck)
    😉

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, long nas overnight, then reversed this morning on a whole different model…go figure.

  • HD

    good rule!

  • ridingwaves

    crawled its way back over the 200sma….if it breaks out here, it could see the 200’s again….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    at least it take it under consideration. Developed back in the day of 2011 craziness.

    The strategy is there is a vacuous hole, and big elephants are fighting between the edges of said price hole. One will win, and the other will not.
    So for a little guy like me, no need to guess and be on the fence with a random outcome.

  • BKXtoZERO

    they’ll be back…..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG This was a card that my husband gave me shortly after we were married.

    Jewels
    I have discovered the secret to an everlasting marriage. Mexican jumping beans. Yup ! A handful a day.. You can bake em – roast em – boil em. I like them raw.. Now there is just one very very minor side effect . If you guessed jumping up and down all day you are correct . Are you able to jump up and down all day at work ? There seems to be no effect when sleeping tho. Mexican jumping beans are on sale today at all Mexican grocery outlets. You might have to wait in line a couple of hours. Now wait …. Before I forget they come in different colors.Yellow and blue to match your beautiful blonde hair and blue eyes

    I love you !

    I was able to find some Mexican jumping beans and I put some in his pant pockets
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    did you get permission? this sounds private. the whole Internet is watching!!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Well There will probably be a rush on Mexican jumping beans today! LOL !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Get your wife some ! LOL !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SLV 13.31 bearish closing basis is my stop
    JULIE

  • HD

    Most people keep no record of market activity and price action. Just wandering thru observing their indicators. Best to recognize a shake n bake in progress and step aside. Missing a move is no big deal. Get creamed in the globex, not acceptable.

  • HD

    Sheesh. I thought I was kinky. 🙂
    Mexican jumping beans… now we know.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAC My target 29.63
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    A while back I commented on UVXY at 5 and change might be the ticket….7.95 now, split adjusted I would wait for 5….TVIX in the 20’s…

    everyone notice how silent Mole is on Vixen…printing money he is….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    yes, quiet. Must be that MRI – scrambled his brain.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    follow-thru, pounce away!
    aggressive target, why not just under 30?

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BAC&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p47590371510

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG I re shorted BAC today at 30.52 29.63 is the weekly Ichi Cloud baseline (21) Another target is the weekly 55 ema at 28.51. Will also watch your target per chart
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    I still can’t get the buzz out from one in 2006.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    As EDGY pointed out yesterday about the under performance world markets. How much longer can the U.S. markets outpace the world.? U.S. not immune
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG The lower fan line exactly matches the lower trend line of the triangle I presented in a chart showing price nearing the triangle apex and a resolution shortly
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Another bearish rising wedge forming Possible RSI at 70 at https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c07e07c91daebdfd35277abd783961c24a4cacc6d96b3b07d2f267dfed4f3544.png top of upper trend line JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    I haven’t touched vix. That whole choppy up pattern was give away for a rug pull

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAC 29.63 is the weekly Ichi Cloud baseline (21). 21.63 is also on the daily chart the 50% retracement and the lower cloud boundary JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a09549263e0ddc6206fc45ecac29145323ae68b5d3a95af343e109967b4d3a80.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    GLD,
    I have an assortment of charts. which really is a bad thing, long term.

    arrows worked, circles, unexplainable!

    never the less, if I see the line crossed, I’ll call it out.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e4191a99eabb89acfb140d4fea34f42ae2def512496c9a5f8a26424596be9759.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Does anyone know what the markets did when Hurricanes Katrina and Wilma hit.? Andrew and Hugo were very destructive also. Hurricane Flo potentially dangerous and the market is non plussed. Unbelievable ! I believed the market rallied with the JFK Assassination
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    hint-reserve currency, yield on treasuries….look at yields vs risk everywhere else…..

  • HD

    Katrina-6% hit.

  • HD

    Wilma +17% rally

    Waves 4-5

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD and RW Thanks for your posts on Hurricane Flo. A very potentially dangerous storm. My heart goes out to those in the path. As with Harvey we will send a check
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hmmm ! Banking Index down ; Transports down ; Oil down SPX Up Bulls better be careful Just saying
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    I would say bears should be careful with that scenario…..
    if market is taking off without financials and oil complex……melt up is in play….

  • ridingwaves

    OT- I have a cousin that was awarded a nice sum of money on construction site accident that paralyzed him from waste down. He put a huge chunk in silver when it was $2-6 dollars, so he is still up but could have cashed out and rebought lower again. I gave him a symbol that is going to be worth north of 50 in less than 2 years at $4, its now climbing to 12 on the way to 19.

    I asked him to sell some when silver was higher, stubborn as hell, said he will wait for the big payday. In the interim I could have made him about 200-500K on this one symbol if he went in big like his silver play…..I can’t even call him and talk to him about that symbol now…..

    stubborn and investing don’t work well together…

  • BKXtoZERO

    Still giving it a chance.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW At close today going to buy PIRS A symbol you gave me Longer term investment Thanks RW
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    I was looking at picking up some more here too, oversold in a big way….
    this symbol has plenty of money and big pharma partners….I did provide that symbol here that is moving higher….I know one person here who jumped in…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW PIRS bouncing from a very strong support zone and as you say oversold Keep on giving us symbols RW Again Thanks
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    The Force is still with you.
    if the dollar drops some more, the ratio will rise.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD%3AUUP&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p15046224099

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Time Check.

    Final Chart.

    if gold does give up the ghost, look for a timing capitulation Sept 27.
    just don’t lose your head over it.
    Muwahaha

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4f2e8fa61c703b479561c89cb1398a7b9d79333dc25f4a33df0b76ea22ec3c57.png

  • HD

    There it is. ES at +17 for the day. Just daring me to jump in. See what it looks like in the morning.

  • Ronebadger

    VERY low SPY volume today…

  • Ronebadger
  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    I believe that might be me, in at 5.11