Euro Campaign

Okay, it seems like the EUR/USD is on the brink of breaking out plus as you recall my hands are thrashed, so I’m posting this with minimal fluff or entertainment value and then fill in the post with additional analysis and thoughts over the coming hour:

The long term view on the EUR/USD is still looking solid after this morning’s deposit rate decision, much to my overall chagrin I must say. But it is what it is and the current touch of the 25-week SMA seems like a picture perfect entry opportunity to me. Should it fail then it opens the gate to a much more pronounced sell off, which given the current general sentiment appears to have pretty low odds.

The short term panel is already in break out mode and we’re now in one of those 50:50 situations, purely on a short term basis I must emphasize: Either it runs off here and the spike low on the hourly remains untested OR we drop back all the way to the 100-hour SMA near 1.178. From there we may be able to stage another entry but that’s pure sci-fi at the current time. For now I’m long ere with a relatively generous stop < 1.1793. Let’s see what happens.

UPDATE 9:05am EST: Interestingly we are now seeing a strong seller that’s producing a bit of a tug-o-war between sellers and buyers:

Being a bit annoying of course after taking out a long entry I’m a bit surprised as I don’t see any compelling news related reason for this, so perhaps something else is going on. IF you’re lucky and are catching this late then know that a long entry remains permissible until about 1.176. After that the odds start to shift to the bears, with confirmation of course < 1.172.

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