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Euro Versus Dollar
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Euro Versus Dollar

by The MoleMay 15, 2018

The Dollar has eased back a little over the past days, giving rise to various pundits declaring the the rally as having played out. Well, frankly I’m not so sure and the justifications on both the bullish and bearish side, as always, are contradictory at best. What I do know however is that both the Dollar and the Euro are sitting near important inflection points, so let’s play!

Here’s are long term panels (weekly and monthly) of the DX futures which both show us medium and long term resistance near the 93.5 mark. A fall from here probably brings the Dollar back to the 90 mark whereas a push > the previous weekly spike high at 93.3 almost guarantees a visit to the 100-week SMA near 94.5.

Both perspectives have merits so I decided to out a hedge in both directions. My first play is a long campaign on the EUR/USD, which looks too juicy to pass up.

As you know I wanted a piece of that action yesterday and was already belaboring the possibility of having missed the bus. So I’m long here with a stop < 1.182.

The AUD/USD however looks a lot more fragile on the daily panel and it was also one of the fastest movers on the way down. Which is why I picked it as a short play with a stop > 0.7566.

My preferred direction of course would be a stronger Dollar but I rarely get what I want and looking at those two charts side by side tells me that either we are getting a massive squeeze higher or an equally if not more rapid decline lower. Either way I want to be positioned, and I now am.

A quick reminder that it’s that time of the month again as we are being graced with ECB President Draghi’s speech tomorrow around noon EST. He’s recently been pushing hard for a Single Resolution Fund which pretty much boils down to being a Europe wide deposit insurance scheme.

Not so coincidentally I saw the German Welt float a fairly controversial article this morning in favor of demands by the IMF for Germans to retire even later and to remain in the workforce. In that context it’s important to remember that the retirement of Germans recently had already been raised from 65 to 67, and now there is talk to pushing it toward 70.

Suffice to say that the vast majority of the reader’s comments weren’t exactly in favor of such a scheme. Germany is already the second highest taxed nation in the OECD, and if I was still living there (fortunately I do not) I would seriously begin to wonder why and for what exactly I should be busting my butt for half a century whilst paying record tax rates all the way into my grave.

 


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    /YM overnight cooled off, RSI sub 70.
    keep an eye on the Bollinger median, could be support.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5e298ccc210fec924eb7e3341071dfea232df1de0432cb169e51b79de662bc38.png
    -GG

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Spoos,
    how many ways of support can I see?
    enough.
    Pull back to test – IMHO.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8c3b18ec59042feeaf1a23d3cf513e1eebc41a2df5c4a94596676403bf0b579d.png

  • StockTalker

    10 yr, dollar rocking again, which means bonds in the dumper:)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • StockTalker

    Want to see capitulation, more to come.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • StockTalker

    Have not seen anything yet, just getting started:)

  • StockTalker

    Nice stop run on crude, last one for a while.

  • StockTalker

    Everyone was anticipating a H&S on the dollar setting up. They just got blown away. lol

  • Yoda

    Call me a crazy green toad, but I am buying miners this morning amidst all the splattered gold bugs’ blood

  • Ronebadger

    Recent lackluster SPY volume up a bit at the open…

  • HD
  • HD

    That vix wanky thing is legit! 2 fer 2 on that. Kudos

  • Ronebadger

    …so far…

  • ridingwaves

    old news, I mentioned last week that Jamie Dimon has it going to 4 this year….which means JPM is in the trade….whales live longer when in the water….moral of story, follow the right whales…

  • StockTalker

    I’ve said this before, do not follow anyone and do not read the news. So, would have no idea.

  • ridingwaves

    well, there ya go…..the news does matter, just be on the right side when it breaks…

  • HD

    We should be in a new wave. The .618 held, The 2-4 TL broke from the May low. 2732 worked again. 2700 roundy and then 2683, 2655 where all the fun began.

  • BobbyLow

    Took profit on Long Oil and am waiting to go short. I’m still not convinced that a short is in order here and I’m looking for more evidence that it really wants to go down.

    In the meantime, I am soooooo glad that I honored my stop on Long Gold yesterday. And of course my entry signal for going short happened sometime between 4 AM and daybreak my time so that bus left while I was sleeping. Maybe GG was right yesterday when he said “Gold was dead”.

    Short Wheat is still doing it’s thing and I want to ride it for as long as I can. So a mixed bag so far this morning but it is what it is.

  • ridingwaves

    bought ASM for a move this week, earnings after the bell, chart is setting up perfect.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Out of 3/4 of my vix position 5.54 some was from 5.5 and some was from 5.12

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    someone turned off the High yield credit pump.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HYG&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p36067214967

  • ridingwaves

    I put in buy order for WEAT at 6.40

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    oh I am expecting more… seeing how this back test goes

  • Ronebadger

    Almost a kinda right shoulder

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    not trying to be a smart ass.

    gold was in favor 15 months over the dollar. now? notsomuch.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD%3AUUP&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p15046224099

  • HD

    So no news for this hit? Appears completely technical. .618 and Dollar strength?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Morgan STanley downgrades Tesla.
    “we’re gonna need a bigger envelope”
    [TSLA]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TSLA&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p46390883390

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Darrell Osgood

    In re German workers: The only thing that keeps the good contributors from moving on to greener pastures is inertia – we get comfortable where we are. Unfortunately, we are willing to part with vast portions, usually the majority, of our earnings (without revolt for a 3% tax on tea) in exchange for that comfort.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I saw that last night on some really cool website called something hedge or hedge something….

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I was raised in Germany as a kid, so I know the mentality well. Germans aren’t really conditioned to fighting for their rights, otherwise Merkel would have been kicked out of office in 2015.

  • BobbyLow

    Opened small short on Crude in 15 Minute Time Frame. Might end up as only a day trade but we’ll see.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I keep a copy under my bed.
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    anecdotal evidence, I worked with a guy who knew a guy who worked at BMW. The company actually takes care of family man workers. Why would I fight, if I was well taken care of.

  • ridingwaves

    gold margin selling kicking in….

  • ridingwaves

    opex shenanigans

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Out of remaining 1/4 long GDX Definite impulse down
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Julie!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BL USO 60 min I have a Bollinger band squeeze and bearish below 14.32
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EDIT 14.34 not 14.32
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    USO 14.50 resistance Support 14.27 Daily 5 ema 14.29
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Out of all rest of TVIX 5.68 from 5.12, edit (see how this test of ES2700 goes, hitting on that downtrend line for the year)

  • Yoda

    Collective discipline and sense of responsibility is the strength of Northern Europeans as opposed to “everyone is on its own” type of mentality you encounter in the rest of Europe. Germans can achieve great things together, at the expense of hardship, if it is to benefit their society as a whole.

  • HD

    So far that VWAP thing has contained each pop.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAC Up into 61.8% retracement ; gap window and Keltner Channel upper band
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    strange, XLF is stuck, but BAC is short covering (?)

    edit: meanwhile good ole deutchebank is down 2%

  • BobbyLow

    Fricken Crude is being one hell of a slippery MF. . .

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    whoa, look at that intraday volatility. (USO)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BL USO 60 min chart 5 day consolidation — 14.45 is breakout and 14.25 is breakdown 14.50 is resistance posted below

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Or late Bulls
    JULIE

  • HD
  • BobbyLow

    Looks like we’re back to the M E keeping oil buyers busy again. Otherwise I think prices would have already taken a big dump.

  • BKXtoZERO

    possible little head/shoulders forming now, (rt) to head back up. Hoping for a pop to 2750, may not get it….. next hope for 1 more weak day a little higher that waterfalls down intraday. One more slam-a-rooski is coming for the bulls.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    IBB The pullback and little bounce off the 55 ema and support — A buy here ? A pause to go higher perhaps up to the downtrend line ? The strong move the preceding two days with strong volume JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/723e812b199aa9b8090f6d0e0a21ac9cae6c59b9f615bcec6767b18ebb79b0f2.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    With all due respect GG but unless you have actually lived in Germany you don’t know what the f. you’re talking about. You’re basing your opinion based on what some dude who knew a guy who knew another guy who’s sister’s uncle’s best friend’s former cousin’s wife’s husband worked at BMW. There are many reason I left, let’s just leave it at that.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BL Who in the “Hell” is buying crude ! Get these Mo Fo’s out of our trade !
    JULIE

  • HD

    Just to play devils advocate, there are 3 days worth of bulls trapped at the March highs in that 2750+.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    There’s nothing left of the real Germany Yoda. Two world wars and 60 years of collective guilt have taken care of that.

  • HD

    In 2009 CL rallied $82 and took 2 years. This rally from the 2016 low is now equal in time but only rallied $45. Symmetry in price would be $108, .618 at $81.

  • HD

    Right back to support.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAC 60 min chart A possible bearish 60 min candle closing below yesterday’s high … That may induce selling. Negative divergences on the 60 min
    JULIE

  • HD

    $SPX is all coiled up again. I’d keep my hands at 10 & 2 o’clock if you know what I mean….

  • BobbyLow

    It’s tough sledding right now Julie. IMO, Middle East threat is keeping price elevated.

  • Yoda

    As always, a few dozens of men have the capability to destroy entire nations.
    I don’t want to sound racist but the influx of economic refugees from the South is probably the last nail in the coffin of that once great nation.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I agree BL… If not that IMO crude would be dumping
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Covered Wheat Short at $493.375 from $516.75. I just had to take profit here. I might reenter later but going to the sidelines for now.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX What do you think HD A possible target 38.2 % retracement matching the conversion of the 21 and 55 ema’s and mid channel Approx 2680 — 2684. I was 8 shy on 2750 target
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    someone bought you breakfast cereal for the year!

  • BKXtoZERO

    being impatient has paid this year

  • HD

    You nailed the .618. I’m just gonna ride it S till I can’t. 2700, 2683, 2655

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAC Now it’s logging – Yeah ! IMO Volume does not lie
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    I was there 3 times…. Munich, and East Rhine area. I saw Nuremburg Chris Kringle market right before Christmas…. had gluewein and little sausage rolls! I loved Germany. I met a gal for work from Max Plank Institute who was VERY proud and a great ambassador of Germany while we were there.

  • BobbyLow

    Yep I loves my Wheaties! 🙂

  • nirav777

    Zero Divergence into the close, squeeze potential! Long Frame manager to recover; up to bulls to take advantage of the set-up; not sure if I am reading it like Mole!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6739737b855b2234f3533b720f16ee760388ea24a4689ea659f61469b5b569b3.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BL Breakfast of Champions
    JULIE

  • nirav777

    Long 2702

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    2702 is upper boundary of my cloud
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    I hedged my Short Crude a few minutes ago and regret not leaving lying dogs lie. The original long position on my slower chart was not “officially” stopped out and still isn’t by my rules. I closed the position because I wanted to take profit and then use a faster time frame so I could go short. I allowed my focus to become unclear. However, there might be an eventual silver lining in this fuck up because it might lead to trading both time frames simlutaneously as part of a plan and not just as a defensive move.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BL I am down 17 cents in BAC (small position) and very little in USO (also a small position)
    17 cents in BAC is approx 1/2 of 1 % BAC 31.46 is another resistance .
    JULIE

  • Ronebadger

    Oh, baby…if this holds. Follow thru tomorrow would be nice…then, hold on to your hats https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3a77c37ad3ecaad1ee7aa35a8721c611e4f836e9dfb65a9680dd67334af47867.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    Hey, He, Get off of my Cloud. (Rolling Stones)

  • BKXtoZERO

    I have longer term positions and day positions…. trust your brain sometimes ;-0

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BL One hour left USO printing a high wave candle so far indicating confusion. Like the saying says Money in confusion
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Great Song BKX
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Yep. I think this can make sense especially with my limited stable (by choice).

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAC Now down 8 cents in trade Too Much !
    JULIE

  • HD

    Nice pop at 2:00. Right into VWAP thingy, again.

  • BobbyLow

    It’s confused alright. LOL

    BTW the most important thing I try to gage is what’s it going to cost if the trade goes against me? I learned this the hard way after many years of reckless trading. So now I’m a firm believer in the Traders Oath, “First do no Harm”. 🙂

  • BKXtoZERO

    I got a little too cute today exiting….. scalped today too, now no buying power. expected more from the bulls….. see what happens. Ready to pounce! (like Julie)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BKX Going to attempt shorting a lower high SPX
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAC Now below VWAP and 31.12 support. Actually slightly in the money
    JULIE

  • HD

    Julie. There is enough data to draw a B-D trend line for your triangle now IMO. This would be E down the way you were counting.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD I see how you are drawing the triangle. The way that you are drawing the triangle is actually the correct way A – C and B – D. I have always shown uptrend lines and down trend lines IMO they are important. Also IMO the triangle was not complete yet
    JULIE

  • HD

    Whipsaw Wednesday on deck. I’m hoping we go 35-25-36 at the open 😉

  • Darkthirty

    a 1 anna 2 ……thank you Susie an bobby

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAC Needs a drop below 31.08 to add to short
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    that is the same as my neighbor says I might have a transmission problem, though he works at Macy’ss

  • ridingwaves

    turn it the other way, coiling up for move north….waiting for rising 100sma to push thru 200sma, its on deck…

  • HD

    There’s nearly 70 points of volatility from VWAP alone today.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Remember, Draghi tomorrow, so if it hasn’t taken off overnight you may have sit out a volatility burst.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    As stated below going to attempt a short of a lower high SPX Today a bounce off the upper cloud boundary and a 50% retracement approx 2722 matches the 60 min Ichi Cloud baseline (21) at 2722 2727 the 61.8% retracement will close the gap. SPX unable to close below it’s 5 ema. 60 min chart oversold JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c45655fbc363ce187dc58ff92cf9633f72c093e4a1608abb3a9460373856b734.png

  • BobbyLow

    Looking forward to being on the same side. It might not be too much longer.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Not my kind of music but her voice is awesome. And that dress is mind-boggling – I wonder whether it’s projection or micro-LEDs.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Hey Mole, RB… On this VIX sell signal: the rules I saw say “within a week” you would have your buy or sell confirmed on equities. 1) No Guarantees (I know) 2) what could invalidate the signal on further VIX action? Thanks! Cordially Yours, BK

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    A drop back below the BB would definitely invalidate the signal. Very exciting as it’s now make or break time for the bulls. If they let this VIX sell signal play out then they’ll find themselves roasting in Hades by early summer.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Thank you kind Sir! I saw your Friday post where you bought yourself beer and were ready to enjoy the weekend, then Monday you said you worked all weekend. Thanks for the updates, the posts, the place to learn!

  • BKXtoZERO

    My 401K company has some recommendations for me! They say I have too much cash and that I should buy 75% stocks. Maybe I will stop trading the VIX and just follow their advice starting tomorrow……
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b097ce4f859a1379d4619e27462bc777081412fe2d610a179a44435a4631d697.jpg

  • BKXtoZERO

    This dollar rally may last a while…. and crush metals. It looks like we are correcting the whole move down from 103 and that this can go on for a while. I was looking at 10 year charts of crude, gold and the Nasdaq. Compared to NQ, gold has been a real turd. I can see why hot money has been chasing NQ. I am a “believer” in metals, but I am not a total gold bug. Charts speak to me not their convictions.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a10c93de1ec4b176941572fd994f588b718faabe8db1bac7ba28abe25f711c05.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It’s fine to believe in metals, especially when facing a steel doors or when someone threatens you with a crowbar. Otherwise it’s just a bloody financial instrument as it’s not commonly used for commercial exchange anymore.

    You guys need to abandon any of the silly conditioning that’s being heaped onto you during your lifetime. A lot of people talk a lot of shit all day and most of it has little reflection in reality. It’s much easier to just trade what’s in front of you and not to burden your reality with useless noise.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Go tell ’em to fuck off. Maybe before that you ought to be asking them for their performance reports. If it’s worse than your own proceed to the previous suggestion.

  • TA.Stockman H

    Well, unless you can trade (brokerage acct), it be best that you have them in something vs. cash. While CASH is a position, for 401k’s, you should buy into equities on pullbacks with cash…unless you have a long term signal that indicates sell.
    That said, I’ve had success with “trading” the retirement age bundles (e.g., 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, 2060). You cannot do that with your other 401k stock funds like TRowe, Vanguard due to roundtrip risks and penalties (e.g., your account is frozen from electronic exchanges where you have to write in and request buy/sell changes).

  • Yoda

    That sounds like capitulation talk to me. Bullish shiny stuff.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I own metal. Trading “paper” metal is their game and it has been frustrating.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I can buy whatever I want in my self managed area. No shorting/no margin/no options. My strategy is a tab better than their idea. Just thought it was funny.

  • BKXtoZERO

    L TVIX 5.43, perhaps day only unless VIX sell signal holds

  • BKXtoZERO

    I have been waiting for silver and USLV to do something. I want in, but paper silver can be clubbed down even more. Waiting for signs of life before the ride into the sunset trade.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Mole, I have physical silver from 2008 at 8-10$/oz. When I showed up for pick up they said people were canceling orders and that I could too. I said no, I’ll take it. Just talking about waiting for confirmation from paper metal game first.

  • TA.Stockman H

    Thanks, BKX2zero. How do you “trade” in the self managed area? Is it more swing trades as you have to wait for settlement? I activated my brokerage this year and find it difficult to manage the “trades”; what timeframe do you use for your signals? In my 401k, when I traded the TARGET bundles, I could go in and out EOD everyday with no settlement.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I trade about 90% intraday and 10% swings. Trades need 2 days to clear and I have constant buying power churning around but I have to be careful with intraday not to “over trade”, because I would then lose that intraday buying power. I am up 107% year to date so far.

  • Tomcat

    You are saying that you have 107% return since jan 1st of this year? WOW

  • BKXtoZERO

    yes. VIX has been fun… lots of red candles, chop range, beautiful conditions….

  • Tomcat

    To be more specific, you have been trading VIX all year and have returned 107% of the entire 401(k) balance (as of Dec 31).

  • BKXtoZERO

    yes. (well the part I can trade anyway) they let you do 50% into a “self managed” TDameritrade account. The rest is in cash

  • Tomcat

    Tip of the hat to you sir!!! Can I ask about your performance since 2009? Accumulative performance vs S&P?

  • ridingwaves

    the equities market is adjusting to higher 10 yr…this is not what bears were hoping to see….

  • BKXtoZERO

    I have been doing this since 2014. 2014 I was up small, 2015 I was up 400% at one point BUT…. I was doing really dumb shit. Building large positions and leaving it on. 2016 was back peddling then 2017 I got crushed as the bulls ground on all year long. So truth be told I am exactly FLAT right now as a lifetime investor in there….. back where I should be. I was trading really well but my wife got tired of seeing me at the computer screen every morning and I got lazy and stopped managing entries and left stuff on. I had a rule set that was treating me well and I am back to using it. I plan on keeping the same discipline going forward.

  • HD

    $SPX 2722 = HWB, They did rally it thru the 0-B TL, it appeared that was rejected only to reverse. Those bstrdos! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6312a38cbe720b37fcb9c8eb2a1d8c94f23a71cb7c198ae01a7bda19c0b3e594.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah. Just noting that r2000 happens to be at third …ever fourth, attempt for highs…..just saying.

  • Tomcat

    Great job BKX!!! And best of luck.

  • HD

    Mole, thoughts on the spike low BTC?

  • HD
  • TA.Stockman H

    Your 401k is obviously more stocked with $ than mine! 😀 I changed companies a few years ago, so my 401k is about $50k. Makes it hard to intraday trade much; first time that I’ve had a company where the 401k can be changed to a limited brokerage account.
    My rollover IRAs are a different story., thank goodness. I have limited margin, so I trade all day.

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks for being honest.

    It’s funny how we tend to go back to what works and what’s the best fit for us. I’ve tried “new and improved” ways many times only to get whacked again and again. Then after I’ve slapped myself upside the head enough times, I’ll go back to doing the things that have always worked consistently over the years. I always thought that there must be a better way but had to get it through my thick fucking skull that I already have a better way.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Yesterday the FED had a lot of bonds maturing. I saw a great article yesterday regarding the FEDs unwind. It said it is the reverse effect of the former melt up days. It said the next BIG unwind day is May 31st and 29 Billion will be sold. You can google the article called “Pint Tickets QE Days”. It posts a link to the FEDs holdings and maturities.

    Yesterday for example. The Federal Reserve owned:

    $3,888,900,000 of the 9.125% of 05/15/2018
    $542,818,700 of the 1% of 05/15/2018
    $21,795,923,000 of the 3.875% of 05/15/2018
    That’s over $26 billion of bonds maturing today.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    2722 the 50% retracement per chart below. The bounce off the upper cloud boundary. Looking to short the lower high as stated. 2727 is the 61.8% retracement. USO still consolidating. BAC perhaps a bearish harami cross print today
    JULIE

  • HD
  • BKXtoZERO

    good girl… I was completely out yesterday and too impatient to put on initial position.

  • nirav777

    So far appears as tho yesterday’s smaller frame divergence in ZERO is leading to toda’s larger frame follow thru, see if the bulls take ownership of the setup

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f4925e30a365031e470facc924b736d550743e0e9ba49e47559c354f9cc0d512.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Soooo, who’s still bearish? Sorry, couldn’t resist 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well done – I gave you credit in my tweet:

    https://twitter.com/evilspeculator/status/996785645170413573

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BKX USO 14.31 strong support Today’s low.14.30 14.55 is resistance. Daily 5 ema approx 14.33
    JULIE

  • HD

    No way. Learned it right here from you. I’m just a scalper. Took it for a $50 ride. That product is quite expensive imo

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Me Chief …. SPX Letting it come to me
    JULIE

  • nirav777

    No me, im on Team Mole!

  • BKXtoZERO

    YOU are a KILLER!!

  • BKXtoZERO

    +0.5R TVIX 5.27 for 1R today

  • BKXtoZERO
  • BobbyLow

    Julie, I’m usually not big into market news of any kind but there appears to be a confluence of events keeping crude prices elevated including ME Tensions, Opec and Russia, Big players protecting large long positions, and now one that I’ve never heard of before. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-16/morgan-stanley-says-a-shipping-revolution-has-oil-headed-for-90

    Current price action on my 3 Hour Trend/Momentum model is still calling for being long and I am back to being fully long. If we get closes below the $70 level, current trend levels will probably be broken and I’ll re-consider going short. In recent days, I’ve attempted shorting crude on faster time frames only to get chewed up and spit out. JMNSHO

    Having said all of the above, price will probably drop like a rock now. 🙂

  • BKXtoZERO

    saw that Crude went beyond 50% retrace (10 year chart) to 70 and 80$ is 62% area

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thanks BL My short USO is very small …. USO may break the consolidation when the it’s rising 13 ema catches up with price which seems to be a pattern
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Also the USO consolidation appears to be a minor bullish ascending triangle. We shall see shortly … Like you if wrong not wrong long
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Understood. It would take a very large upward move in Crude for you to get hurt on a small inverse position of USO.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BL There were three great entries USO since April. One bounce off it’s 55 ema and two bounces off it’s 21 ema . Sometimes we have screen error like a deer looking into headlights …. LOL ! BL one item that my husband told me ….. What leads us into a bull market (beginning March 2009) leads us into a bear market. That was Homebuilders (XHB) in 2009. Look at Homebuilders now UGLY !
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Don’t remind me about the homebuilders. 🙂 I wasn’t using my current model back then. Actually, I probably wasn’t using any model other than faulty market logic back in 2007. This is when I first began shorting homebuilders and commercial real estate. I mean it had to end badly with banks loaning money to people who had no chance of ever paying it back. Right? But even when everyone with an IQ above 70 knew this, prices continued to go up. I did made money shorting them in 2008 but a lot of what I made mostly paid for my losses from being a year early in 2007.

    So now it’s the KISS method for me. Are prices trending up or are they trending down. If trending up, I’m long. If trending down, I’m short.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    XPO Would like to buy the pullback. The 38.2 % retracement matches the 21 ema The 50% retracement (101) matches the Ichi Cloud baseline (21) JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8c7a3e35ac0f87dd56a551a2e1d2baf81a538ab188001e5b2c21076eb53a963a.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That’s the problem with crypto plus there isn’t enough leverage. We’ll have to wait until more levered products become available.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Your tip on changing the parameters on the Keltner Channel ATR to match the 21 ema ….. AWESOME Bro ! Thanks GG !
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    LMAO – remember the movie? Dirka dirka!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    GG, don’t you know better than to share our secrets with GIRLS??

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BTW Where is the GG today ? ? Since I told him I like driving in the snow …… VROOOOMMM ! ! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cdbcc9fcd3e9531497080e4da867a2645736dc7fd9569d9961bf02904361a9b5.png
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Apparently nobody missed me today. GOOD! Maybe I should take the rest of the week off? 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Okay, grabbing dinner. Hold the fort, Julie.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Captain yelled at me, and I’m sulking in the corner.
    I’ll be back later.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Drop and give me 50!!!

  • HD

    Looks like everyone got half the memo. Sell in May and ‘go away.’ So far just ‘go away’ working. Hmm

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX The 21 ema gas now crossed above the 55 ema. Also a 38.2% retracement matches the confluence of the 21 and 55 ema’s JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ac503fb75d2e24ff9c8a5381fb3d9a679cf346b283c87110cfd138a10164aaf6.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    I would miss you Sir! You are like our Sergeant Hulka in the movie Stripes. You are our Big Toe. We would all be like a foot without a big toe.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I knew it! radio silence after that one.

  • BKXtoZERO

    yes!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Cougar getting ready to pounce …… ! !
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Selling my pieces of it lately with some drv.

  • Yoda

    If we drop under ES 2700, I’ll be.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EXAS A possible long the bounce https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/aa279a45f503c4dd9607abf1ff95033ee37757c6ceec8dced9c4aba88091625d.png here Down to 21 ema ; baseline (21) : a support ; raff regression mid line JULIE

  • HD

    25 point rally, -36 is next right.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD LOL !
    Julie

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    I was just thinking the other day how perfect this scene describes our current president LOL

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y2GwrR-4Q9E

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    I’m currently long ES from 2707, but wouldn’t today complete a text book RTV-S set-up?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • BKXtoZERO

    I could learn patience from you with this cougar thing

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • ridingwaves

    specs were definitely rewarded via Bernanke Put…..right thinking was wrong thinking back then when discussing debt, leverage, govt. backing etc.
    I think a lot of smart people were hit by the BP, it was bizarro world back then and you had to smoke hopium because everyone else. In hindsight I bet the big boys were slobbering over the ability to annihilate the confidence detractors…they knew what the put would do for them…..leverage up….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    USO Above chart See the two bounces exactly off the rising 21 ema …. I missed those entries . Deer in headlights syndrome LOL !
    JULIE

  • Ronebadger

    My name is Ronebadger… and I’m a …. Oh, this is getting tired…

  • ridingwaves

    I love your persistance

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    $SPX Overbought . Like the pattern recognition MACD …. Again ready to pounce at the close … 60 min chart a bearish candle closing below 2722 … High probability https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/08991534598a9f8f8ead9392e0787d0062946588d74161bed7355e10b72d22d7.png JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    LOL

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW You guys are great !
    JULIE

  • HD

    I can’t believe that worked! Ha. We talked about it yesterday too.

  • HD

    VWAP 2717

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    YUP HD ! Love it ! The 61.8% retracement up to gap mentioned in previous post and chart Yeah !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD I have VWAP on 60 min chart at 2720
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Now Short SPX
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    You know Mole is going to come up with a one liner on your bearishness on next post right?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW I know I can take it !
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    some girls here too….I’m turning you into the WE movement HR dept.

  • HD

    5 min ES

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Very “Poopy” volume SPY on today’s bounce ….
    JULIE

  • Ronebadger

    Yeah, I noticed

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well, we do have a VIX sell signal in place. Thus far the Zero isn’t pointing down yet though. It’s getting late in the game but a take down from here could be glorious.

    Bottomline: I get bearish when I see signs of trouble. Nobody has a crystal ball folks and all that matters is the tape in front of me.

    I know, no juicy headline in that, nothing some retail suckers would want to buy into. The truth isn’t as attractive as a well dressed up lie.

  • Ronebadger
  • BKXtoZERO
  • BKXtoZERO

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/90a4a96c6fdf494a1f9745e6c2cfbdf44c5ab212c1d3685fa9c1bad8e60031b8.png This is insane. Looking over some momo charts, SP500 4 biggest contributors are (NTFLX, AAPL, AMZN,MSFT). You REALLY have to ask yourself how sustainable this is. NFLX is total parabolic! You know once is closes below this vertical line it gets ugly fast. All of these look to have little to no upside potential. Blue chips not confirming RUT new high. Crude oil below is also just on an unsustainable path. The time is getting near.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BKX Parabolic move . You might find an interesting read You will have to google it. Bulkowski’s Bump and Run Pattern.
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    To my eye, there was one of those in 2014 and 2015 but the beat went on. I have a friend that IS a perma bear….. people around here often think that I am a wing-nut, but this guy’s “specialty” has been shorting MOMO stocks during the 17 years that I have known him with disastrous results. He shorted TASR, got killed, RIMM, got killed (others too) and has been short AAPL for 2 years yet refuses to give in. So the one thing I do know is that I don’t mess with this stuff.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BKX The mistake that Bears make is trying to catch a top. If you short it should always be a lower high. I am top picking USO to the chagrin of my husband …. Very very small position . I have my reasons. i.e. Overbought time frames .. Targets .. Parallel channel etc .. If you know why you make a trade it is never wrong. Proper money management is the key If wrong not wrong long
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Reminds me of XIV investors……

  • BKXtoZERO

    Lower highs often turn into a higher highs in the blink of an eye and usually without a chance to politely exit. NTFLX chart is full of those. It is just a tough MKT either way.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    USO Overbought monthly – weekly – daily. 50% retracement ; Top of two parallel channels (1) blue dotted lines (2) Raff regression ; Weekly RSI and CCI (not shown) negative divergences. Massive net short position Commercials (COT) Targets and resistances A calculated play and thought out trade.IMO very little left and dipping toe in water (probe) Shown USO weekly chart JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ccf6744d6056b93118ad46c6e69b1badc036fe9124dc0f4db1a35a5920bdc232.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    initial position worthy…. “Gimme five, I’m still alive, ain’t no luck, I learned to duck” US Blues (Grateful Dead)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BKX All my trades are calculated and thought out. I scalp too … Using a 30 min combined with a 5 min for entry.and exits 5 or 6 to 1 is the preferred method I use for scalping. 60 min combined with 10 min also if I want to scalp a little longer
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    I am not on you… yours are more planned and have more stats than mine!

  • BKXtoZERO

    You nailed the important thing and that is money management.

  • BKXtoZERO

    My “win” rate was less than 50% after I finally looked.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BKX It can be less than 50% if you bail out of a loser pronto. One of the best traders Larry Williams his win rate is less than 50% but he goes out in a flash if it goes against him. Over the years he has amassed a fortune
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Great use of the Keltner Channels GG Love the ATR matching the average Thanks again for the tip.Hubby says great one … GG You are one up on him with that one LOL !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    thanks!
    TBX moves a bit faster on a comparison chart, but then again, it’s moving in dimes, TBT is moving in dollars.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TBT&p=W&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p63535229881

  • BKXtoZERO

    You have no doubt run into Scott Phillips here…. He has a school of thought that is tough…. I am guessing he would say that “one” (not you) is finding reasons to convince themselves etc… and the more TA reasons, the more biased to (ones) outcome they become. He was on me big time about top picking, playing for reversals etc… I have struggled and thought hard about much of his thoughts and people on here. Someone like BL seems to have a nice way to ride part of a trend with his system and capture nice chunks of it. I think most on here are good trend followers and hate volatility/whipsaw. I think about “shorting” vs “buying”. On one hand a short seller has the benefit of seeing a (completed?) pattern before them and tries to judge sustainability. A value type buyer is trying to do the opposite and that can be a bottomless game.Trend follower/dip momo buyers seem to be the rest here in my estimation. It is not easy for anyone. Have a plan and a stop and learn to duck covers it for me.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BKX Did GG and I ever show you and post a chart for long term investors? It is excellent and works with stocks and indices.. GG showed one chart (weekly) and not sure if I presented the other chart. Both are very similar. If not I will re post if you desire
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    I got it, saved it. Looking at those rules, right now we should not be short…. ema10 above ema 50 https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3fb632b8f40bc0a4afb170c3860d9bcde987a16728a64f788c3e7ba7369ca636.jpg

  • BKXtoZERO

    you are back to work! did you do your 50 push ups? and say 10 Hail Jesse Livermores?

  • BKXtoZERO

    can either of you be so kind and show me an example with those settings? thanks, in advance…. your annoying neighbor…. BK

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BKX Here yo go BAC with a 21,2,21 Keltner with a 144 ema 21 is the ema 2 is the atr setting and the last 21 is the look back or days. The normal setting is 20,2,10 Remember that the selected moving average is an ema Awesome https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7e71e8f4696ae5f17de2096ff770a78c3caf9d465824972fbfb038e3fe69381d.png JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    THANK YOU. I will start viewing charts w/ this lens and see what I see.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..the lower boundary keeps a baby cub bear from getting too bearish. short from the median to the boundary, life is good.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BKX Another note Keltner 21,2,10 or if you prefer 20,2,10 (my preference is 21) Anyway the 20,2,10 if price goes above or below the band it often times signals a trend change.Then switch to the 21,2,21
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG You mean cougar kitten ! LOL !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BKX GDX See how the Keltner 20,2,10 signaled the trend change early 2016 (going above the upper band) Now the consolidation within the band Keltner is great for consolidations too. Also the left side of the chart going below the band multiple times corroborated the down trend GDX Weekly Chart shown JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a78e230023189154accbcfe19d4e3e0ffeef76e9c40c29d838d6ac22b0dfe1f2.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    maybe I am challenged, but the price jumped from 13 to 18 (causing) the band to move. It did stay on the upper band after that.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BKX if you switch then to the daily chart with a 21,2,21 the entries will be noticeable. A mistake that many traders do is just use the daily chart only. Always use the monthly – weekly and daily charts in conjunction. Using the Ichi Cloud in multiple time frames is awesome. The Ichi Cloud even intraday is unbelievable. How do you think I recognized today’s bounce SPX and noticed the pullback at approx 2727 and the important 2722 . I combined the daily with the 60 min. Remember always try to use 5 or 6 to one. Monthly is approx 4 1/2 the weekly and the daily is approx 6 to 1 the 60 min. The weekly is 5 to 1 the daily
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    OK, thanks…. makes more sense. I thought you gleaned all that from longer term chart. Lots of cutting and pasting comments into graphs for me.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    The bounce was exactly off the daily Ichi Coud upper boundary and went up to the upper boundary of the 60 min chart. BKX I mean F%$K ! Great for targets !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BKX — GG 10:30 pm Over and out. See you Bros tomorrow Have A Great Night
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Good morning… Looks like the news story will be the 10yr breaking out over 3%, futures not liking it as of midnight PST. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/60a9c664f50127e5fa16dd2e96b827c996027ce6c6bbbcbfddfb3795beeff29e.png

  • kim

    so that means straight down or what 😀

  • kim
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Why would I be pissed?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • kim

    because fib doesn’t work

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well, yes and no – on its own probably useless. But in correlation with other measures it can be useful for measuring the degree of a retracement.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I meant the degree given could be helpful if e.g. .61.8 lines up with another support/resistance line.

  • ridingwaves

    lack of salsa music playing nearby?

  • kim

    we will see how it evolves from TA point of view, let’s post that same thing within few days, sure there are other factors like Trump become sane or sth…