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Event Risk

Event Risk

by The MoleFebruary 23, 2015

The sideways drift I joked about this morning seems to have become the modus operandi of the entire session. And as I started to suspect a few hours in we don’t have to look very far for an explanation:


Quite a heaping platter of event risk we’ve got scheduled for tomorrow and I suggest you guys do like me – which is hunker down and wait it out. Not surprisingly¬†we got very little on the setup front today:


AUD/USD may be worth a shot down here as it’s facing a stack of Net-Lines on the daily panel. I’m grabbing 1/4R here with a stop below 0.778. However if it’s not above 0.7814 by tomorrow morning I’ll cut out and run for the hills.


Corn – another experimental play and I’m applying the same approach. 1/4R right here with a stop below the lower 100-hour BB. Must be at 390 by tomorrow morning or I’m dropping it.

That’s pretty much it for me until tomorrow morning after 10:00am EST – keep it frosty and don’t get caught in the obligatory traps and tribulations preceding event periods. Keep your powder dry and live another day.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • molecool


    Hey there and welcome! Another recovering wave wanker – don’t feel bad, we’ve all been there (until about 2010).

    Okay, so here is the skinny: Predictions are useless and an affliction suffered by retail traders. Just trade price price price. Don’t worry about where you think it’ll go – whether or not you care you will be equally correct making directional predictions. Focus on a system with a long term edge – campaign management is the most neglected and at the same time most important quantitative aspect of trading. Qualitative trading skills is another part of trading completely ignored by most traders. Read the enclosed PDF by Van Tharp – feel free to post questions and participate here. Trading is actually very simple – technically speaking – it’s our own emotions and personal limitations that usually ruin the process.

    PDF here:

  • molecool

    Hey guys – please write me to admin@ if you are a Kinetick of IQFeed client.

  • newbfxtrader

    Yep rule no 1 price is always right. If you think the price is wrong check rule no 1. BTW anyone take my coffee short?

  • Billabong

    @ GG – sorry to see you hanging it up. I’ve enjoyed your sense of humour. You brought a smile to my face almost everyday. I also realized in a discussion with Sean / Mole a few days ago, I’m spending way too much time on the internet. After getting rid of cable, I knew the next step was reading more books and reflecting. After reading “Kybalion”, reducing my time on the internet moved to front and center. I’m also stepping back and will add or ask when I have something to contribute.

    EDIT: BTW, I thought the discussion over the weekend was excellent. I will consider taking more partial profits even with small positions … thanks.


    I closed my crude oil long. I don’t like the looks of hourly chart, bearish looking candles (to me) curving over and for Elliott wankers, a clear abc up. Keeping my account intact.


    I read part of this just now, a lot stands out. What I have taken to doing is :
    “some traders expect the position to go in their favor right away or they exit”. That is what I have been doing lately. More churn but I’ve had more big trades that worked. Sometimes intraday only I go for higher position size and will hold of I catch a ramp.


    dollar chart looks crazy to me, to my eye possibly 96 coming after maybe commodities possibly get a break (thesis not bias) educated guess to look into opportunities in near future.

  • molecool

    Define crazy and how you are trading it.

  • molecool

    The write up is pure gold and will help cure you of several ingrained bad habits retail traders seem to fall prey to. Very little has been written about the qualitative aspects of trading as most focus on the quantitative side only. Once you’re done with the paper take a peek at this:

    I watch this one every three months – mental reminder.


    straight up, not a single move below the 50dma since July, and knowing you,
    You would be asking why I am not long. correct?


    on my list of things to do….. wife, house, kid…. trading vieos. Check.

  • molecool

    Depends on a myriad of things. If you’re simply following the current trend on a long term basis – yes. Otherwise many factors are to be considered – time frame – campaign management – target or trend trading – etc.

    Just wanted to see if you’ve got a rue based system or if you’r trading off the cuff.

  • Ivan K

    Where to place your ISL … such a simple and basic question ?

    There many, and yet a limited number of, choices … and when they are expressed in black and white terms they can be ‘tested’. For the sake simplicity, I am only looking from the long side.

    1) Below * the Low of the Event / setup Bar
    2) Below * the nearest Spike Low before the Event / setup Bar
    3) In the range of the Event / setup Bar
    4) At the Low of the Event / setup Bar
    5) Below * a certain Moving Average
    6) ‘X’ number of pips below the Entry level
    7) ‘X’ dollars per contract below the Entry level
    8) Average True Range below Entry Level.

    I am confident that you can come up with some others as well.

    Each one can be tested to see what effect it would have on your RBT (actual or WIP) … after all, is that not what computers (and weekends) are supposedly all about?

    The two charts below illustrate the dramatic difference between just 2 different ISL placement ideas … why not revisit your own RBT and … see what the outcomes would / could be using a different ISL concept.

    * ‘Below’ is such an ‘interesting’ term!

  • mugabe

    which of the 2 stops was in general looser, or can’t they be compared because they are different in nature?

  • mugabe

    big event risk already happened – earth tremor in spain. my flat shook! yikes!


    off the cuff, with old food particles stained into it.


    basically I have a watch list of actionable leveraged ETFs, both bear and bull for oil, metals, bonds, VIX etc. I try to wait and see what looks (to me) to be a “nice set up” IE close to a point where you are right or wrong right away, not meandering in the middle. as things approach my target areas, I’ll get on in either direction. Usually something looks good somewhere so I try not to force things. Thanks for asking, giving advice. I will read up/watch video. BK

  • Ivan K

    Mugabe – both ISL’s in the graphic above are basis the Event / setup Bar … ISL # 1 is further away from the actual Entry Level … so I guess that would be seen to be ‘looser’.

  • jesterx

    peter might be right, but all this GREED is making me worry.

    There is so much bearish ness out there right now, its almost bullish, if you know what I mean.

    this guy from OZ has accurate FEAR GREED INDICATOR here ==>

    It looks like its all GREED, and that has made the market go down, several weeks later.

    I know 99% of people are bearish in here….right? and the world is going to end tomorrow, but I think it will be all about YELLEN this week. And the Bullshit that comes out of her month. Cant wait. LOL

  • ridingwaves

    No…that was the US justice department….gold could get volatile here–sector.html

    The U.S. Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are investigating at least 10 major banks for a possible rigging of precious-metals markets, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people close to the inquiries.

  • phylum

    Shock… horror… and who’s accumulating?

  • ridingwaves

    I just picked up some physical for the kin…..

  • phylum


  • mugabe

    thank you – the complete opposite of what I would have thought!

    PS v good of you to throw out these snippets to get us thinking along productive lines

  • mugabe

    too many people have a RUE – based system. that’s a fantastic typo!:)

    PS I imagine Scott has a roo-based system

  • Ivan K

    Mugabe – in my experience there are so many ‘logical’ conclusions … that have become mantras … yet they actually lack veracity … hence … listen to everyone … believe no-one … test everything before applying it for yourself … or repeating it to others.

  • mugabe

    that comment has multiple applications beyond trading, methinks … another good candidate for favouriting

  • Ivan K

    Totally agreed … life and trading exist in parallel universes … everything experienced in life will be experienced in trading … and vice versa.

  • Ivan K

    Hence a life-skill that has served me rather well … to say the least … L.I.V.E. … Look for opportunities / ideas … Investigate … how one can benefit from or jump on board … Verify … what are the downsides / risks / costs … Execute … go Nike go !

    Works in markets … works in life.

  • Ivan K

    Mugabe – Thank you … actually from my side it is a responsibility … as opposed to being ‘good’.

  • captainboom

    New Post

  • molecool

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