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Every Day I’m Hustlin’
86

Every Day I’m Hustlin’

by The MoleApril 28, 2016

If I would have to name one single quality in this game that separates the few winners from all the losers I’d point at persistence as what counts the most. There’s not one day that goes by when I don’t work my butt off to keep myself on the winning side of the tape. You’ve seen me post quite a bit of educational content as of late and it seems to have been well received as we got several likes by stocktwits and some renowned players. But at the end of the day knowledge and even skill means absolutely zilch if you don’t show up for work every single day and press that button when it’s time to take action.

2016-04-28_gold_profits

So let’s see what many of you guys missed out on – tisk tisk… Gold printed me over 3.3R in just two sessions. What’s not immediately apparent just looking at this screen grab is the campaign management that is employed here. Due to increasing volatility I keep things a bit more loose in the beginning and only start trailing at a 1R distance after 2R. Proper campaign management is key to riding out the shake out attempts.

2016-04-28_wheat

Here is a good example. Wheat is moving slowly but steadily and has already produced over 1.3R. However as you can see my stop is still at -1R. That sometimes backfires but if I move it up to b/e too early I often lose out due to a LKGB move.

2016-04-28_EURAUD_profits

EUR/AUD managed to stop me out and it actually wasn’t easy as I use sort of a lazy stop that counts down the attempts of touching it. This often helps me avoid a quick FU stab lower followed by a jump up, but it’s not a guarantee to sit out everything as every symbol moves differently in various market phases. As you can see EUR/AUD churns you to hell and then takes off like a rocket. Not an easy pair but it netted me 2R in three days.

2016-04-28_spoos

Alright, we’ve got a lot of material today and the market has already opened. The spoos look like a decent long position here, assuming we get another dip lower. Yes, I’m stingy – sometimes it backfires but on average I get the entries I want.

2016-04-28_spoos_LT

On the long term panel the spoos are looking delicious. So far the trend is backing the bulls and the Zero signal on the hourly remains supportive. BUT I very much like to see what happens near 2110 – it’s the gateway to new historic highs and gauging momentum there will be key. I won’t rush into short positions or even bearish option strategies at this point however.

2016-04-28_EURGBP

EUR/GBP – I’m going to grab a long here on a little dip lower. Could be done here but it’s possible we’ll visit the 100-day SMA. I love the hourly BB however and this thing looks like it’s ready to pop.

2016-04-28_CADCHF

CAD/CHF – the reason why I’m trying a long here is actually the long term panel. It’s possible this one turns into a long trending candidate. But for now I’ll attempt to catch a push higher and ride it lower back inside the 100-day Bollinger.

2016-04-28_ZL

Soybean oil attempting to recover after a deeeeep dip lower. I’m feeling fearless and so I’m trying a long here with a stop below. Since this screengrab the market actually opened below me and so I moved my LIMIT a bit lower and the stop to 33.2.

But we’re just getting warmed up. Please join me in the lair:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • javier

    what does 3.3R mean?

  • Tomcat

    Mole, I think I speak on everyone’s nehalf that we very much appreciate your hustlin’

  • Yoda

    Sweet setups!!!

  • Time Bandit

    R is the amount that you risk on a trade. If your maximum risk $100 and you make $300 then you made 3R. If your maximum risk is a $1,000 and you make $3,000 then you made 3R. We all have different risk levels and account sizes so by talking in terms of “R” we keep things relative. There’s a lot more things about R regarding trade and account management and these can be found in previous threads and possibly in the education section of ES.

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    yes

  • Time Bandit

    Speaking of 3R, I got stopped on my Long GBP/JPY overnight for a +3R Gain. This horse was quite lathered up after a nice run so I’ll let it rest for a few hours and probably flip to a Short after the COB today. I also plan on taking some partial profits at some point today in Crude, OIH and XLB.

    I was a little late but I’ve joined some of you guys in a Long Wheat Position. I regret missing an entry on Soybeans yesterday but I’m not going to chase it.

  • Yoda

    I am getting a buy signal on PM miners

  • Tomcat

    Same here, GDX

  • Ronebadger

    So, if I buy stock for $100 (my risk is $100 because it could go to zero), and I sell at $150, my R is +1.5? Then, isn’t R just a percentage? Or, are you saying that if I buy at $100, but my stop is $90, then I’m “risking” $10…so, if I sell at $150, my R is 5.0?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    wheat, corn, soybeans, lathered horses…
    maybe you should change your crab boat out for a farmer pic?
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    overheated on my weekly. RSI > 73
    *could* be a trap,
    but never say never, if it wants to go outside my envelope, it certainly can.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p32351574747

  • Time Bandit

    No. Let’s say that you have a $10,000 of Trading Capital and you choose to have a Maximum Risk of 1% of that Trading Capital. That 1% would be equal to $100. Now when you buy 10 Shares of that $100 stock your stop loss needs to be set at $90 because $100 is the maximum amount that you choose to lose. But if you sell that 10 shares of stock for $130 per share then you made $300 or 3X the amount of your risk of $100. This would be a 3R Gain.

  • captainboom

    Edit: TB did a better description than I did. Link is still helpful.

    https://evilspeculator.com/tools-section/concepts/

  • Billabong

    R calculation originally shared on this site (other ways can be found on Vann Tharp’s web site or YouTube): Before you buy / sell, calculate the distance between the entry point / price and the SL point. Turn the $ amount at risk into a % and divide into total account value = R in %.

    Example:
    A. Stock price is $2 per share
    B. SL point / risk is 50 cents
    C. Account size $100K
    D. Assume you want to risk 1%, this = $1K
    E. $1K @ risk divided by 50 cents (SL / risk amount) = 2K share size

    In the above example R is used to calculate the share size for the risk amount you have decided on.

    Vann Tharp has other ways of explaining it and it’s worth the time to watch the video on R.

  • ridingwaves

    dollar shorts might try to break that magical 93 by the looks of it…if not trap could be correct…

    welcome to the fed economy sheeple
    Homeownership rate falls to third lowest on record

  • Ronebadger

    Thanks everyone! This confirms that R is way too complicated for my simple brain. I’ll just stick with either making or losing a PERCENTAGE of what I “bet” on an “investment”.

  • Billabong

    Individual miners are just below my BB and following it up … Could be setting up for a big PM move as miners lead the way … DX has been negative all morning. GC needs to break the multi-month high at 1287 and stay above 1250.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    YES. +1 for reminding me. I keep forgetting that slippery paper.
    [UUP]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p60934396509

    maybe that why EvilSpec keeps me sharp.
    show up, hustle, hustle.

    Silver/Dollar ratio.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3AUUP&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p47702448530

  • Yoda

    I agree with the overheated part, but it is nevertheless a buy.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well done!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I just spent the past hour filling out tax forms and stuff… sheesh – I can write code for eight hours straight but this shit always drains me…

    .

  • ridingwaves

    NUGT moves are parabolic in nature…crazy strength….

  • mugabe

    but how do you know how big your position should be?

  • Billabong

    Before you say that , you should consider trying it out. Once you get used to it, R changes the whole way you look at risk … if nothing else, considering watching Vann Tharp’s video on R. It took me about 6 months to really incorporate it as part of my trading plan … but I’m glad I did.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It’s all there… does anyone even look at the links above?

    https://evilspeculator.com/tools-section/concepts/

  • mugabe

    you can’t systematically take risk with stops if you don’t think in terms of R

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That is why we have risk calculators for fuck’s sake!!

    https://evilspeculator.com/category/tools-trading/

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I never understood the problem in grasping this simple concept. Took me about 30 seconds… not to be snob but it’s a very trivial but essential part of campaign management.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Do or do not, there is no try buy.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    He always bets the same most likely. Reminds me of the guy who told me he didn’t care how much gasoline costs as he only fills up $50 worth 🙂

  • mugabe

    I think it depends if you’re mathemetically inclined (at least a bit). I never found it hard. didn’t stop me losing, though .) but at least the losses were controlled

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Mwwwuuuaahaahaaaaa!!!!

    .

  • Billabong

    but, but, but ….. you’re a young dog.

  • mugabe

    good catch on GC .. wow

  • nyse

    Nice call on that new es campaign

  • Yoda

    It appears you are onto something

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I didn’t get in though!!! (^*&@%

  • Yoda

    Better to wish to be in a trade than out of one

  • nyse

    WHAT?!!?!?!? Eh, youll get em next time *winks

  • Yoda

    those long red candles on the 5 min chart are damn scary if you are long

  • Ronebadger
  • ridingwaves

    well folks, I have 43 domains to build out over next 30 days, thank god for WP cloning…..see ya in June….good luck in your trades….pray for me to stay out of HTML hell….

  • Time Bandit

    Good Luck to you too RW. 🙂

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Remember, when it gets quirky – all roads lead to reboot.
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    note to self, never catch a red 5min falling knife.

    ouch.
    he he.

  • Ronebadger
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Time Bandit

    Got stopped for a -1R Loss on Wheat before the 2:20 Close. But took Partial Profits of +1R each on Crude, OIH, and XLB. So all and all, a very good day booking wise. My accounts have been trimmed down. With the exception of the GBP/JPY that I might take a short position in tonight, I’ll probably sit on my hands until Monday. But we’ll see how prices act tomorrow.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…nicest pop since February…caught every bit of the damm thing. Now returned to the 3.5 zone. Flat for the time being.

  • Billabong

    Nice to see you have a lot of business to take care of…

  • Yoda

    Agree. This market has no fear. Trin was hardly bearish, 5 min zero signal did not fall under -0.5 during the late p.m. drop, breadth was hardly negative too. Some traders might be caught off-guard if we drop further tomorrow. Myself I am still in my SQQQ trade.

  • Yoda

    Damn, a 7 mag earthquake hit Vanuatu today. Hope Ivan is OK.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That island just won’t get a break…

  • Yoda

    yup. There no such thing as a perfect place to live. If it’s not Big Brother scamming you, it’s Mother Nature unleashing on you.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Stopped out of all equities longs and added to a solid GLD position. Thanks Mole for the reminder 🙂

  • phylum

    Cartoons will work best…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Billabong

    Just made pre-mkt HOD. Trailing just below BB, heading towards $50….

  • mugabe
  • mugabe

    yen still kicking butt. amazing

  • Billabong

    Thanks for sharing … The article answered a lot of questions and it explains the content deterioration over the last few years.

  • captainboom

    Ivan’s near Port Vila, so based on this map link, it looks like he felt it for sure.
    http://earthquaketrack.com/p/vanuatu/recent

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • captainboom

    Ivan’s fine. Just heard from him. Very short single shake for him, so just a tremor.

  • Yoda

    This PM rally is getting long in the tooth.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Working on a big post.

  • Time Bandit

    It took Al 10 years to be “consistently” profitable. It took me a lot longer. 🙂

    This clip is excellent!

  • mugabe

    what time frame?

  • mugabe

    but he says it can take you a lot less

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • mugabe

    gonna hang the german flag outside your house?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…this is near my zone for JDST lotto tickets.

  • Billabong

    Maybe, maybe not. I believe Mole mentioned 1350 a few weeks ago and the institutions are pumping 1400-1450 on the spring move. Silver still has a lot of catching up to do. I’ll be watching for “buy on the dip” with any retracement. PMs have institutional wind behind their sails….

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Definitely on a shorter time frame but if you look at the weeklys, potential for much more room, especially if equities tank this summer.

  • Time Bandit

    Ya but only if I knew then what I know now.

  • Time Bandit

    I think my biggest problem over the first many years was over complicating things and thinking more information was better. When IMO, the exact opposite is true and that’s on any time frame.

  • Mark Shinnick

    This is the thing; it may be at this point this expectation is too well factored in….and its not like it would be a move coming out from nowhere. I’m suspicious of it only at this exact gold/sil price level just as I was of PM weakness in Jan.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    I have a target of 1350-1400 also before consolidation/ retracement. If you take recent churn as midpoint consolidation.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, that is a fair measurement.

  • Round we go
  • mugabe

    Yes – exactly. Those last two comments of yours are real keepers.

  • mugabe

    Haven’t been there for years

  • Yoda

    S-T.

  • phylum

    In the first example, if your stop was zero$, then R = 0.5.

    In the second example you are absolutely correct as you risked $10 but made $50.

    Point is…. “R = a fixed % of your account that is at risk of a potential loss”.

    “R” based reporting (an Equity Curve in R, aka EqC) is arithmetic (i.e. linear). R is irreverent to how large or small your account may be. So all trading performance can be compared on a common ground. The actual $ don’t matter, just the result, or end “R”.

    An EqC based on $ is geometric i.e. takes compounding into account. $ are emotional and relative performance against others, with different account sizes, can’t be readily measured.

    As Time Bandit alluded to, the measure you choose also has many implications in regard to money management (MM). This includes, for example, the time frame you are trading, how many trades you take per day (if intra) and indeed the psychology of your trading.