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Final Rope-A-Dope?
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Final Rope-A-Dope?

by The MoleMay 2, 2010

I’m paranoid by nature – strike it up to practically raising myself as a kid – no free lunches over here, no sirree. Add to that a natural disposition towards being contrarian as well as enjoying questioning the world around me way too much and you have a decent recipe for becoming a trader. Doesn’t mean I didn’t have to pay my dues – quite on the contrary, folks. If you think you’ve had it tough you probably never traded gold futures for an extended amount of time 😉

Alright before we get started I want you guys to forget about the market for a second and watch absolute genius in the making. I’d give every cent I own for being able to throw it down like this just once in my life:

BTW, if you ever wondered why I post those clips in the first place. They are my source of inspiration as they somehow crack open my mind. Sunday mornings after breakfast I crank up Rammstein, Metallica, Disturbed, yes even Amon Amarth (pretty rough stuff) and somehow in the murky depths of my mind it throws a switch which pops open the right (creative) side of my brain. I begin seeings things that completely escaped me before – new patterns, relationships, fractals, context – context – context – everthing suddenly falls into focus.

Doesn’t have to be metal by the way – I’m very much into trance, latin, blues, classical – pretty much everything but jazz. Yes, yes – I know – there is something wrong with me. I listen to jazz and I realize that I miss out on something absolutely magnificent and it seems that everyone but me ‘gets it’. But you can’t pretend – you can’t force yourself to like something you don’t. We are all wired in a different way – sometimes new parts open up while others close down. I remember hating grapefruit as a kid – now I absolutely adore it – go figure.

What’s the point of all this? Well – I personally believe that you can only become a good technical analyst and trader if you absolutely and completely love doing it. It’s like Robert Trujillo in that clip above – he is one with his guitar because that’s what he does – that’s what he devotes himself to doing. I can only imagine how many countless hours he must have practiced as a kid – probably had to endure countless blisters to get to that level of skill. Now he’s the bass player of fucking Metallica – that’s what dedication mixed with a bit of talent can lead to.

Don’t think for a second that plotting charts is any different. Yes, hot chicks won’t throw themselves at you and it’s not as glamorous (unless you get rich and can buy that shiny new boat) – but the concept is the same. To improve that extra 1% separating you from the rest will take you years of hard work. An additional 1% may take you another decade. But let’s not forget that the average sprinters and gold metal winners are only separated by tens of seconds – ponder about that for a while.

There are a few superstars out there who trade circles around everyone else. None of those guys and gals were born with that ability – maybe some talent but that’s only the equivalent of a head start. They all had to work hard and it took many sacrifices and financial losses to get to the next level. Those guys are sitting in front of their workstations right now as I speak – charting – plotting – thinking – having fun. If you’re not having fun doing this – then please either do something else or find someone who does it for you. Because this game will eat you alive and spit you out unless you are 100% in it – willing to spend that extra hour – on a Sunday – while your buds are chasing hot poon at the beach.

Copper has been insisting on a market reversal for a while now – and we did finally see drop late last week. But after all that back & forth did it really feel like the bears were winning? Not to me quite frankly. Anyway, for a long reversal we need to look somewhere else.

The NYSE Advancing/Declining Volume ratio in all its raw glory. What I’m on the lookout for is a reading at or below 0.03 – that’s assuming we drop much further from here. Maybe it’s a bit premature to start looking for long signals when we haven’t even had much of a down run yet.

Similar story on the 10-day MA – I’d love to see another drop accompanied by a juicy MA divergence. Even better would be a raw signal drop to 0.03 then followed by a rip up in the raw signal bestowing us with that coveted MA divergence. One can dream…

A long reversal may be signaled by a 61.8% fib line touch of the CPCE’s 10-day MA. That’s what happened the last three 1/2 times at least.  If you think we are heading lower then watch the 0.64 mark – that to me would be a final signal to get out of short positions.

I keep looking at this chart of the TRIN 10-day MA – trying to make complete sense out of it. Yes, the 0.85 touches are valuable and so are the reversals at 1.55. What really gets me is the area highlighted in cyan – the bears had to wait a looooooong time for this thing to come down. and then it failed for weeks before we got a reversal. Now everyone seems to be chasing the tape as we just snapped back without much downside. Not liking it and that’s why I don’t think this is P3. Yet.

Which brings me to the wave count. Nothing much has changed – we remain trapped in the 1215 – 1185 channel. Which we must breach once and for all. But either way I think you’ll see readings in that range for a while. Even if we breach and drop I believe that downside will be limited. I see 1150 as pretty much a floor – followed by another and hopefully final reversal. The charts I posted above make me nervous as the bears wasted a lot of momentum in sideways tape.

HOWEVER – this kind of pattern often happens when markets start to top after long term up trends. It’s really hard to predict those sudden drops we saw in 2008. This time around there is a chance we may see some fast moves and I think it will be the magnitude of Monday/Tuesday’s tape that I will be watching very closely. If we slowly descend with little mini-rips in between then new highs are but guaranteed. For this trend to breach once and for all we need a catastrophic WTF event that leaves the dip buyers nervous to pull the trigger. So far I ain’t seeing that – again – yet. I know – I sound like a broken record – but on this one I have been proven right for months now.

Before I go: No, the equities buy signal on Mr. VIX was not confirmed on Friday. Which is what my disclaimer on the possibility of a major drop is partially based on. The bears have a chance here – mostly because the bulls are getting nervous and I don’t see institutional traders participating in buying. But that may have been because it was late in the month and they may come back in droves on Monday/Tuesday. So, the tape in the next few days is extremely crucial – retail traders can’t hold up this roof on their own – without the big boys stepping in this thing will come crashing down. But we have not seen indications of that happening – and I strongly discourage everyone from chasing the tape to the downside.

Cheers,

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • bobthehorse

    Couldn't agree more. I used to be an academic and I fell into looking at markets as an academic interest really, it naturally followed from my research. And that was that – I have done more academic work on markets than I have ever done on anything else and the beauty is – it's a choice, not a chore. When I left academia to join an investment bank, I realised how many people basically hate their job – they are just in it for the money. For me, it's still a hobby. It's the most liberating feeling in the world knowing you are doing what you want to do and that if you won the lottery, you'd still be at work the next day.

    Might also explain why I am sitting here on a sunday night trying to figure out how far a Greek bounce could last on Monday am!

  • Onorio

    Seems like the EUR got another short squeeze…maybe i`ll short it tomorrow, gonna watch for a entry setup.

  • chronographics

    The Boys say little volume right now, wait for Sydney to get going a bit, see what happens.

  • Onorio

    I will wait for tomorrow before i ever think in add shorts, this seems a lot like last Greece bailout news, the EUR gap up more than 100 pips and rally another 100 before colapse to new lows.

  • chronographics

    Probably a good call, also we will have seen what the US share market does later today, there are two possible counts : we have done a one, two -one, two to the downside and we should have a big move down or we have completed a five down and we get a correction up before a sell off. We still cud be in a Flat correction with new highs ahead but a break below 1181 would likely kill that.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Philosophical on a Sunday!

    Nice post over on t' Slope earlier about volatility ratios btw – check it out – http://tinyurl.com/36elnfe

    Suggests some nice ratios, which if you flip upside down so that they track the SPX, you get…

    http://content.screencast.com/users/ultrabear/f

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Alright – everyone reload!!

  • john_matrix

    nice post mole

  • chronographics

    Everyones waiting, locals ran some stops on light volume, they are adopting wait and see what the bigger centers do when they get in. The PIGS may be gone but the PIES are still there. I am off for a couple of hours but if I hear/see any big flows will try post 😉

  • elliott_surfs

    As a nonsubscriber / daily reader, I'm a big fan of the newest format MC (nonsubs get the view after-hours etc). There are too many biased blogs out there and that is without a doubt the quickest way to lose money in this game. Thanks for keeping us leeches in your loop!
    Let's kill it this week

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    120 SPY

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT
  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    I have purely “academical” question
    if Friday's close was 8575
    and /es now 8550

    HTF in this stupid TOS world it is UP 2 points???

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Everyone taking Sunday off? 🙂

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    There are no new internet news articles on the Great Oil Spill (GOS) on US sites, since April 30th. Only found one on a UK site. This indicates to me that the problem is way worse than ever reported, and that a cover-up is underway, regardless of how impossible it will be to cover this up.

    Here are some compelling pix of the spill

    http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2010/04/oil_sp

    I found this site after my “guess” that the spill was much worse because of the lack of news coverage. Check them out.
    http://www.washingtonsblog.com/

    However this Greece bailout, at 3 time the original amount, it likely to spur the markets upward. Euro should be relieved, and continue it's upward path.

    But time will tell. It is blatantly obvious that the financial markets are being highly controlled / manipulated. My best recent results have been from using a support and resistance daytrading method. But that is not always possible when this little thing called work rears it's ugly head.

    There will be a massive upheaval, and that may be next week or 3 to 6 years from now, it will be world changing from our current perspective. This is a 1970's re-do….but will be far more dramatic. The fundamentals have changed for the worse.

    And 3 compelling charts posted here—
    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/05/greece-

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I was at the gym for an hour and the spill was being covered practically the entire time – that and the Times Square bomb scare – hey that has a good ring to it. Should provide enough media attention for the Feds to squeeze through some watered down 'regulation'.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Roger that, I don't watch TV except for Saturday Night Live. But good to know it's not being ignored.

    As a SCUBA diver, doing any real work at 100 feet down becomes a real task….400 feet is the limit pretty much for rebreathers, and then at a mile down….it is strictly robotics. But I was amazed of the clarity of pictures of submersible robots trying to activate the switches to close the oil flow, and it just not working even though they had clear view, a proper robot arm, and were right on the switch.

    I don't read newspaper except for Dilbert and Doonsbury.

  • telacimr

    At month-end, the official close for the futures is the cash close plus the fair value spread. Thus, the futures may trade significantly higher or lower after 4pm until they close at 4:15, but regardless, the official close at month-end is the cash close plus the fair value spread. Looking at the chart, it looks like, yes, the futures traded to 8575 at 4:15, but the fair value was 1183.50, which is where the futures were when the cash index closed at 4pm (this only holds at month-end).

  • klout

    if u use ES as a futures symbol TOS chooses the “active” contract….make sure what contract u are holding and type in that symbol for the price….that thing fool me once….almost gave me a heartattck ….ha

  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-y_J77RO-wY mmrmnhrm

    Baby ratling scurrying here, but gotta wait until tomorrow morning for the public curtain to go up. In the meanwhile, it seems as if jawboning by the Euros, bomb scares in Times Square, and bubbling crude in the gulf can't keep the US market down. Bloomberg (as of 810p EDT) is pointing towards an upwards open tomorrow on all three indexes.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    There is a saying,

    You can get more with a kind word and a gun, than with a kind word alone.

    And like the best of lies and deception, the best of them have an element of truth.

    However, the above saying is not true in most cases if you brandish your gun (i.e. display it gratuitously) . However, if you leave your negotiating partner determine on their own (say, by the bulge under your sport coat) that you have a gun, your outcome of negotiations will likely be much better.

    Humans are perhaps the most irrational creatures ever created on this planet. Is that a by-product of being the Alpha species or a cause of it?

    A very serious question to consider

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    careful dave, first I see a drop to a minimum of 1175, and the bounce can go as high (but beyond we're on dangerous territory) as 1202.5… so PPT will try to ramp it to 1204-1208 and see if they can make a breakout to 1230.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    even hamsters

  • yudhisthira

    I'm seeing vix at 22.05 outside of the BB again at 21.59.
    Another setup for buy signal?
    http://screencast.com/t/MGNjNDMwNTMt

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    just trading here, just made few /es points – time to go to McDee and celebrate!

  • chronographics

    EUR Good selling out of Sydney

  • yudhisthira

    I really appreciate these Sunday afternoon charts and analysis.
    Great setup for Sunday evening tape watching.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    yes, I am , but it is not about time to roll , so the same contract esm0 and even such idiocy as it is up 3.10 —???huh???
    with tick .25???
    How they do that? have they started to adjust cost of carry over weekend? BS really

  • yudhisthira

    Making a good charge at that rising trend line.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    totally agree with this explanation … IF it was not happening every single weekend and again – not in increment of 1 tick

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    nice seeing you banking some coin

    droped you a present (check it against your view and let me know)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    hamster time!

    bpspx is sliding down lower bb 13,2.518 and we have some points to fall
    hilo's… someone tried putting a floor and it looks like a fail
    spx:vix says more drop before further choices
    spx:cpce at nice place
    spx:gold looks like it could drop as hell but there is always chop in this zone

    I can't see how we can NOT drop to 1175 , then it might do 1155, 1135 (and this last value opens 1095)

    hell i see a drop soon and then last 1200's retest

  • rosocecasita

    2 days for it to confirm. That a lot of wiggle room

  • rosocecasita

    Also: Buy signals are not nearly as reliable as sell signals.

  • yudhisthira

    Good to hear. Euro close to Friday morning's low.

  • Thunder44

    That's one bad ass guitar james has.

  • rosocecasita

    if you pull up a chart on $TRIN yesterday, you'll notice there was not an increase at each step down on friday. i.e. the sell of was not generated by people shorting the market, but by current share holders selling.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Euro has tanked after a gap up to the PRS 133, now it has broken the PRS 133 to the downside (not the upper, the lower)

    http://screencast.com/t/YWI4N2VjZGIt

  • rosocecasita

    All eyes on:

    Shanghai
    Hang Seng
    Nikkei

    My shitty link page:
    http://docs.google.com/View?docID=0ASpSI4wOeUqH

  • Thunder44

    That's great stuff.

  • mrBozo

    Things are either are as they appear to be
    Neither are or appear to be
    Or are and don't appear to be
    Or not and yet appear to be

    We are currently in the forth kind

    http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-848491

    No Jobs = No Taxes = No Gov't

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Awesome response, and in a sadistic funny way that you link to Jekyll island whilst the GOS (great oil spill) roars away!

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    long /6e 1.3211

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    having big time problem with expectation of EURO falling down more on whatever Greece/Schmeese or anything else…not today/tomorrow
    http://screencast.com/t/M2YxN2Y1ZTQ

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    forking out profits!
    http://screencast.com/t/ZmVmMzk3

    damn – I sound like that banned forkAsOlic

    sold 1/2 of 1.3211 long @ 1.3230
    2nd 1/2 @1.3235

    time to sleep

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    military funerals…how the hell people intend to make money trading if they are not here at midnight Sunday????

  • rosocecasita

    if hang seng drops right here, its a 3 of 3 of 3 of 3 down… yes 4 subdivided waves, to bad its on the 1 min.

  • yudhisthira

    I guess nikkei closed today.

  • yudhisthira

    Gotta turn in. Keep watch over everything. What time does PPT ramp things up? 6am eastern?

  • rosocecasita

    hmm, and shanghai as well it would appear

    getting tired don't know if ill make it another hour, mustwatch for implsive wave! (sry for shit typing on onscreen kbrd)

  • ricebowl

    The last buy signal fizzled. This one could just as easily fizzle. Have to keep an eye on it.

  • rosocecasita

    exactly, a filed signal is almost a precursor to another failed (conjecture)

  • bananaben

    Mole – I find the Sunday posts very helpful – good to start off the week with a frame of reference. I sure don't have much in trading advice but here are some links that may be of interest:

    KINGWORLD INTERVIEW w/ MARK HANSON
    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcas
    Highlights:
    ** Tax credit sucked up so much demand – shudders to think how bad figures will be in July
    ** 15.02% home loans in delinquincy or forclosure = 8.4 million loans (4 yr. supply)
    ** Expects home prices to decline 5-10%/yr over the next 3 yrs.
    ** Expects total of 16-20 million foreclosures coming up.

    GREEK RIOTS – since we're talking music here's some funky French rap for you
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ds8zyNPMbWE
    ************************************************

    60% short as of the end on Friday – Got great TZA positions on Thurs. near 78% retracement.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    5+ for French rap – for some strange reason the only sort of rap I can stand.

  • Cerebro82

    “But let’s not forget that the average sprinters and gold metal winners are only separated by tens of seconds”…. That's a great line. It's takes extra hours in the lab just to see the smallest results. 10% of the work makes 90% of the difference. Thanks Mole, your post was phenomenal (as always) but this is what hit home for me.

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    Great post Mole. Thanks.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    good analysis..very quite here in Europe..May day holidays still in Spain..all shops closed… Spanish papers headlining the amount Spain is going to contribute to Greek plan..9.8 bn €…Bears could be nervous as we are at the same support that sparked the rally last week…like u said need a break of the range..

  • Onorio

    Im out of my USDCAD long for +110

    I`ve recieved a sell setup and switch to short arround 1.0145

  • amokta

    oh dear. dax pulls up. spx futures up. i fear today will be bear kill day

  • Onorio

    again?

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    fear not – get used to

    or just go short at /es 1196

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    “tens of seconds”…which is a pure dumb luck and if race repeated 10 days in a row – EACH out of 10 sprinters will be a champion…
    so it is NOT about “outperforming” – it is about “staying in the game”

  • amokta

    yes, must play the tape that comes off the spindle

  • amokta

    lets see if we have turned the tide, or if the tide is returning to drown us!

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT
  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    not so sure…very quiet in europe today..UK mkts closed, lots of people on long weekend..I think we still get at least one more leg down in Dax..

    http://www.screencast.com/t/MDhmNmM2N

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Some people make that fraction of a second consistently – and it takes hard work to pull that off.

  • Cerebro82

    I agree that staying in the game is paramount. But to say pure dumb luck is
    wrong. “if race repeated 10 days in a row – EACH out of 10 sprinters will
    be a champion..” That's not true either, in these races usually the favorite
    wins. It's a lot less random than you think (as is the markets). Usually the
    most prepared wins in the markets, and the one with the fastest avg times in
    the previous races wins. Both preparation and God given talent are
    essential. So the analogy is a good one.

  • amokta

    nice chart.
    skyline along bottom reminds me of commodore vic20 game!

  • skynard

    GM Fellow Rats,

    1/2 covered EOD Friday, will unload hedge and reload short on retrace.

  • boycottnow

    thanks mole …….you really put out …great work

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    time for ErikD to come over with his “roof is on fire”

  • Onorio

    Above 1200 again, bulls win..

  • boycottnow

    may day all over asia

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You mean IF – be careful, some people may misunderstand such statements.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I took profits; I sold my SLV calls. I may re-long if/when some resistance gets broken.

  • Onorio

    Sorry, gotta paid more atention to that details.

  • ricebowl

    Yep. If we close above 1200 *and* close green the following day, then it is highly likely that we head to 1230.

    ^VIX is back inside the bollingers, although it is flirting with the top one.

  • ricebowl

    The SPX chart is looking really scary.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    my first computer was a sinclair ZX81 with a 16k expansion… then a Spectrum48k, then a commodore64, then a 486@33

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    time frame? scary up or down? any pics?

  • Thunder44

    US steel is getting crushed again.

  • Thunder44

    Alot of the commodities I watched on the way up X,AKS,vale,TCK definitely have not been following these moves.

  • AlohaBear

    why

  • skynard

    The bearish realignment of the EMA's on the 60min SPX has sealed the bulls fait atleast for now. Will be looking for a break of the neckline 1183 over next couple of days. IMO of cousre.

  • Cerebro82

    Even after the Eurozone bailout, the EUR looks extremely weak. Took some profits from a EUR/USD short I had from last night. Will look to reshort on the next bounce… Markets “feel” really tired even though we are up across the board. Wouldn't be surprised if we end in the red on the SPX.

    Currently no positions

  • Thunder44

    Yeah ,it looks like the punches are getting softer.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Good thing I took profits, huh? SLV has dropped significantly. I won't re-long unless $SPX starts moving up again, $SPX/SLV starts moving down again, and $SPX/SLV breaks this 38.2% Fib. I just don't see that happening today.

  • Kudos

    HG has been stubborn this morning and refused to play ball with the spx, started the morning down 1 percent even with ES up 6 points. It did just fall through the floor and is now down over 2%.

  • gsavli

    I don't know what to think about this bailout. Every EUROzone country will have to contribute her share and I really don't see, where Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Italy and some smaller members will get all that cash from.

    From selling bonds? Hardly, their 10y yields are already in the range from 4 – 6% and are next Greece waiting to happen. This bailout will only result in much bigger chances for PIIS defaulting.

    I say, it will be a fiasco of some sort.

  • ricebowl

    1-min timeframe. The candles got real small, and then we went from 1 bollinger to the other in a single candle. A couple of candles later we did the same thing to the upside. Crazy.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    yes agree..bail out is only cos “they” want to a) protect their financial institutions b) trying to send message to the markets that “they” will stand by Eurozone members….

    methinks effect will only be temporary

  • centerline

    Great post Mole.

  • AlohaBear

    notice some chit chat about X being aquired anyone have info on who might be buying the company

  • Cerebro82

    Agreed.. And I think that seems to be the consensus. Where is this money coming from? The US got bailed out yes, but we are the most powerful nation on the planet. These smaller countries will default one by one. Then the meat of P3 will see some true wealth destruction (and creation if we are patient and diligent ;-)). It's not like it's been that long since the last downturn, people will run scared.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    went long EUR /6E @1.3177 – bite me!

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    I need to learn to read German

  • Onorio

    USDCAD has retraced to 68% of today down move.

    A break of 1.0115 will confirm a 3 or C wave.

  • Onorio

    Crazy!

    Even with long setup entries, i feel reluctant to long the EUR…i prefer to wait for short setups.

  • Kudos

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/

    and if you speak spanish, or want a slightly butchered translation by google check out http://www.elpais.com/economia/

    reading both offer a great source of perspective

  • gsavli

    I wonder if today will be another +2% day for nasdaq. This thing just refuses to correct.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    euro…you might get 133.5 before 128… but i'm not sure on that one

    but if you're crazy enough to take it the if it breaks 133.5 just move your stop and hold it to 138.5

  • Cerebro82

    crazy ones make the money. with that said, I am not going long the EUR, Im with you , on just waiting for short set ups.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    out 1.3286, just trading chop-chop – bored like hell (knock on wood – good day for me in spite of being Monday (Mondays more difficult to chart with my system)

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    Am I the only one with dead TOS? It even smell like corpse now!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    hey, it's not a bad setup with a stop at 131

    max loss .77

    1.8 first win (cover half?)
    further 5 for the rest

    euro could be a nice play

  • Cerebro82

    I don't disagree with that. I have been analyzing my trades and realize
    most of my drawdowns come from EUR longs. So I'm just trying to be a more
    efficient trader. If it bounces then great, I will wait for a nice short
    entry. If it continues to fall, then once it confirms the break, I will
    short it. Again, it could be ready to correct to the upside, I'm just not
    willing to commit any capital to that right now.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    crazy russian, you had a nice risk reward if you respected a stoploss… or will you wait for 1.34 to get the 1.38 without much risk?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    1.236 is the euro to go long

  • Cerebro82

    working fine for me David. try re-loading, it's funny like that sometimes

  • Onorio

    No buyers, no sellers..im gonna watch some paint dry…

  • Cerebro82

    Volume is non-existent. Im comfortable being flat right here. Looking at 1.3200 as a EUR short. Scalping 10 pips at that price

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    we just hit first k100% on fast rat so:

    1. the day is not bearish so far (we skiped k0% but hit k100%)
    2. we should see some retrace from here or else

  • Cerebro82

    are you long?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I'm in europe and half of my assets are “long euro”

  • Cerebro82

    So you don't daytrade? What are your timeframes?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    i'm always here but my trades have to be longer (not timeframe dependent, value dependent) and i don't have acces to options or futures so it's all stocks and etfs

  • Onorio

    Is that a H&S forming in 1H NAS?

  • Cerebro82

    oh i c. I started in stocks but now trade mostly futures and forex.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    still some bullshito ahead, if vix 19.8 fails we have to fight at 18.4

  • Cerebro82

    short EUR at 1.3197. Stop 1.3210

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    oops, was charting, didn't see that last ramp… second k100%

    so bulls are back

  • bananaben

    Just repurchased a bit of TZA. Won't buy more until I see how high this fucker goes. The madness never ends.

  • Onorio

    1230 is on the table in tomorrow or Wednesday.

    Last chance for bears is a sell-off here…

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    IF true then SPX 1226 OR 1244 , 1230 is no longer a valid value

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    2/3rd short /es now again avg 1197.5

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    fully rebuilt intended short position

  • Gold_Gerb

    ahha! Your the one driving the Market up.
    Next time, buy longs, THEN buy the TZA.
    later, sell the longs, and your TZA is absolutely FREE!
    if the market tanks, win win!
    ;-D

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/05/boatloa

    Boatload O' Charts has been posted

  • http://www.portfoliotilt.com PortfolioTilt

    “What’s the point of all this? Well – I personally believe that you can only become a good technical analyst and trader if you absolutely and completely love doing it. It’s like Robert Trujillo in that clip above – he is one with his guitar because that’s what he does – that’s what he devotes himself to doing. I can only imagine how many countless hours he must have practiced as a kid – probably had to endure countless blisters to get to that level of skill. Now he’s the bass player of fucking Metallica – that’s what dedication mixed with a bit of talent can lead to.”

    Well spoken. Its all about practice, practice, practice…to be the best, you have to truly love what you are doing and have an honest passion for it. I also agree about music opening up the creative side of the brain. I know a couple of traders that say they operate best when listening to classical music, for example. For me, its smooth jazz. Anyways looks like SPX 1180-1220 should be fun to play with for a bit.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    well, i hate it when i'm right… the retracement went to SPX 1202.5 with puncture and invitation by PPT to dance the 1204-1206 again

    that's where mole hides his panzers in soylent orange IMHO, but let's wait and see

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77
  • Thunder44

    Do you own 1/2 of the etf yet.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    The supply lines have been cut – I fear the Feds might launch a late day attack.

  • bananaben

    Working on it! A breach of RUT 742 is what would really do me it. I'm fearing an EOD ramp right now. This is just insane.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    almost there honey

  • raised_by_wolves

    I sold my calls early this morning when SLV was at 18.43. I'm waiting until at least tomorrow before possibly deploying long again. Every condition must be meet. Dot the i's, and cross the t's. No margin for error.

  • raised_by_wolves

    OR 1272.

  • Thunder44

    What do you mean insane,The Dow is only up over 4500 pts in a littlle over a year.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    agree, almost 2 hours ago… somewhere… i said “well, if spx1197 doesn't hold this thingie soon (with a nice drop afterwards)we could have another battle for 1204-1206 for EOD”

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Bears are the new 40-year old virgin. Never get to third base – they missed another opportunity.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    no, not the upper208 on hamsters. watch the ma's on the centenial, breach yes, upperbb208 on dailies NO

    no 1272, if you go long bail inthe 1240's 1250's at most

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    not yet mole, not yet.

    the true count allows this and some more. ben knows that true bears with large wallets might call his bluff this time right at 1208-1210spx

  • amokta

    provied we dont breach 1206-ish, there is still reason to suspect we are due for omre correction (unless it turns into a consolidation, then higher). We may be shanghai-ed tomorrow, so lets see what tomorrow bringeth

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    though i doubt that ben will be able to cross the 1205 line without a prety gap to “hide the decline”

  • Onorio

    Looking at SPX daily chart since March 2009, all tops (minor, major) have been placed in moves like the one we`re doing right now, so the risk of being long, IMO, is major of being short.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/ZTZlZTY0

  • AlohaBear

    Somehow I always feel like I am getting the shaft when they ramp the market. worries me to think a computer is in control of our country.

  • AlohaBear

    It is like I am watching doctor Frankenstien throw the switch to create a monster.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    don't worry about that, so far computers have A-holes using them…

  • raised_by_wolves

    In recent weeks, it just hasn't made sense to me to get uber bearish without key support being taken out on weekly (or longer), not just daily charts.

    I'm using the same same Fib fan, by the way.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • BobbyLow

    It appears that Bears have once gain been struck by Greek Mythology in the form of “Pandora's Box” (Jar) opened by her, unleashed many terrible things on mankind

  • BobbyLow

    see it wouldn't even let me finish what I was going to write. WTF? This is some scary shit. LOL

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    ahhh, good old centenial rat stuff from a certain hamster? yess, now you see why i talk of spx 1000 by june?

  • raised_by_wolves

    If the market has the strength to push past the weekly MA(208), then I think the probability increase for a move up to the weekly BB(468,0.618).

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Nice recognition of ye old Fib Fan from the first depression

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Definitely only day trading when time allows.
    It might make sense to open some position trades short in the near future–show me the broken support though.

  • raised_by_wolves

    These are strange times, and this is the closest I get to pop.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    watch end of 2003, and 2004 and tell me why it is more likely to slide slowly, almost horizontaly to lower bb40

  • raised_by_wolves

    Stainless Steel Hamster can take credit for the 40, 208, and 468 MAs and BBs on some of my other charts, but I give credit to Stainless Steel Chicken for the blue Fib fan on my chart. Did you get it from him or did you spot it on your own?

  • skynard

    Gold up, Dollar up, Market up! WTF! I'm confused!

  • amokta

    the perfect storm?

  • raised_by_wolves

    If there is no spoon, then there really is no broken support. And unbroken resistance isn't good enough for me.

  • skynard

    Could be, only time will tell at this point.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    true, SSCHICKEN is the king of the long fib, BUT it does strike at the 208/468 confluence

  • skynard

    FTBK, another one bites the dust!

  • rosocecasita

    Party like its 1999!!! The good times are here forever!

  • amokta

    Oh Spartacus, we have failed you, run for the Hills !

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    spot on own

  • skynard

    Looking for bearish pattern to set up on SPX 60 min. Should have it shortly w/ next bar. This seems like a smoke screen IMO! 1500 hours…..who's got the ball?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Is this what you had in mind? This is what I noticed:

    Even when trending up like there is no gravity, return-to-mean phenomena is still observable depending on the timeframe. On the weekly chart, it is probable that there will be a return to mean from the upper BB(40,2.618) to the MA(40). Is there anything that may influence when this happens? In early 2004, the weekly MA(208) acted like a gravitational keyhole bending the uptrend sideways. The result was a return to mean from the upper BB(40,2.618) to the MA(40).

    On $SPX, the MA(208) cut through the middle of the price action:

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    On $INDU, the MA(208) acted as support:

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • raised_by_wolves

    Good canine eyes, I must say.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    yes, but do check the bb40,1.618

  • raised_by_wolves

    Once the BB(40,1.618) is crossed, it's done, and we're on to MA(40).

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    but heading for a lower bb almost touchdown

  • skynard

    Europe puking, still looking for the neckline to be retested if not brocken @ SPX 1183. This definately looks to be distribution phase of the market.

  • skynard

    Guess that the Greece deal did not work out. Looks like money is moving to gold, dollar and bonds since my 401K bond accounts are moving upward.