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Sitting Tight
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Sitting Tight

by The MoleJune 12, 2012

Frankly I’ve got nothing today – as long as we are stuck in the limbo zone I don’t feel comfortable recommending any setups on the equity side. Currencies are all over the place and I don’t see anything of value there either – similar situation over in commodities. So let’s simply do a quick comment cleaner as I have two charts worth sharing:

The spoos are officially back in sell mode as we remain below that NLSL at 1319. It’s expired now but was valid yesterday when we breached it. On the left we have the 100-hour acting as resistance, so if we breach that it may be an early signal that the bulls are making a go for a stab higher. Short of any meaningful upside there is zero edge here and unless you are scalping or swing trading Personally I recommend you stay the heck out.

Most interesting chart of the day is ole’ bucky which is chewing on its own NLBL at 83.035 right now. A breach may give us a push higher here, so keep an eye on that. However on the left side we have the hourly showing us some possible support near 82.98 and 82.92 (sorry for painting over that). As I’m typing this we are actually below both so perhaps this is going to turn into its own whipsaw zone from hell. Frankly I wouldn’t touch anything here unless we get back above that daily NLBL – frankly I don’t see a valid setup to the downside either.

Look – this is a great day to spend your day doing something else. Take this as an opportunity to get out of the house to enjoy a summer day, hit the gym, go fishing, hit the movies – whatever floats your boat. But watching this tape is an utter waste of time and may actually be detrimental to your trading performance. I leave you with this:

It was never my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. — Jesse Livermore

I could not agree more. See you tomorrow.

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • bdoone

    Thanks Mole, as usual. 
     One observation: In your last 2 posts the charts don’t enlarge when double clicking them, as they usually do.  I tried on 2 different computers.  Anybody else having this problem? 

  • Kudos

    Try installing hoverzoom as an extension for chrome. It enlarges any picture or link to a picture when you hover over the picture or link.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Ooops – fixing it now.

  • neowave

    Is it just me or with everybody that you can’t do a close-up anymore on the pictures mole presents us everyday… only since 2 days I have this problem

  • http://twitter.com/law6 law

    excellent  hows Spain?

    send us some good fotos!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    a like for the commentary.
    after 15min on open today.  I shut it down.

    Mrs. Gerb was *shocked*!
    why did you shut it down?  cause there ain’t nothing worth watching honey.

  • bdoone

    Thanks, I’ll check it out.
    Just loaded it. I like.

  • AMCabrera

    pulling all my USD/NOK shorts. Getting out when I can with profits.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Sorry guys – I just fixed it. Will go back and do the other post as well.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Loving it here – not missing L.A. a bit.

  • Joe_Jones

    JNK:TLT is dropping. Watch out rats

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    The new piso I’m moving into has a direct view at a 15th century silk market – a UNESCO world heritage site:

    http://tinyurl.com/lalonja-pics

    My sink is 300 year old and I got 5 meter (~14 feet) ceilings. Happy camper – coming here was a great move.

  • Joe_Jones

    mmm, not anymore. F. limbo.

  • Joe_Jones

    Wow. Are you looking to buy real estate or do you think prices have still a long way to drop further

  • Skynard

    Here it comes:)

  • tradem4alpha

    The only problem I have with the IHS on the daily is that everyone seems to talk about it; here, on stocktwits, other blogs…a lot of people talk about how we are completing the right shoulder now…

  • Skynard

    MM’s right on schedule!

  • http://twitter.com/law6 law

    gorgeous

  • ronebadger

    so, WAS yesterday’s double-engulfing-VIX-candle meaningful…in any way?  Any stats on that kinda thing?

  • Skynard

    Accending on the 5 min.

  • amokta

    The only ones benefitting today are the market-makers, brokers, and candlestick makers
    Nearly went long , but stuck in short postion (till it trips out)

  • StrikeFirst

    Got long this morning(weekly spy options).

    Closed out just now for a nice gain.

    I can’t complain.

  • Skynard

    A break of 1315 should bring 1320, got a bit of a div here though.

  • Joe_Jones

    Blue arrow again + exhaustion buying. 

    Adding to shorts to keep overnight.

  • StrikeFirst

    A strong close.

    Long going into tomorrow.

  • MidLife

     well played today Skynard!

  • amokta

    Nice one!
    All i can say is not to get married to a position – if its not working, then either flip or stay on sideline. I shoulda, woulda, coulda!

  • MidLife

     that thing vanished again. Maybe Mole can make them stay once they print? At least to back test.

  • amokta

     Your on the (in the!) money today!

  • tradem4alpha

     JNK at the highs of the day (retraced the entire drop of yesterday), treasuries at the lows, IWM slight outperformance, OPEX week…it does look like risk on.

  • StrikeFirst

    Man is incomplete until he is married. Then he is finished.
    😉

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/X3UHQ24EPYQVH62MCJVJM4KIJI peter

    ES volume not exactly setting the world on fire.  Hard to believe this mini-ramp sticks given the low participation, but I’ve seen stranger.  Anybody have an interpretation?  Seems Strikefirst and Joe Jones are of differing mind.

  • Skynard

    Close enough, closed half /ES and holding over. Day traders exit:)

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I told you guys to wait for the candle to close.

  • Skynard

    MM’s want the new high today it seems.

  • tradem4alpha

     you still think we see 1350+ this week?

  • Skynard

    Judging from today’s action, in a flash:)

  • Fibz

    Interesting how all the financial media is talking about Europe, but ignoring the looming civil war in the Middle East.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    back from lunch…did I miss much?

    ah, looks like that hourly 50MA was finally hit.

  • AMCabrera

    All the while I was never triggered at 1.2530? oh well.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    yes.  never cross grain the Bullish Percent chart, I say.

  • tradem4alpha

     yeah…now I checked the BPI and I saw that yesterday it moved slightly up (considering the drop in the market, this is very positive).

  • supervilin

    The EUR is not following the equities today, HG is also saying meh.. What do you guys make of this?  wait and see I guess

  • supervilin

    Sky killed it again! 🙂  what signals prompted you to add longs on 1300 specifically?

  • Joe_Jones

    Well, I took position for a move down tomorrow with only very few handles of risk.

  • Joe_Jones

    Mole, daily zero update please

  • Joe_Jones

    There is also a H&S on the 60 min:
    http://www.barchart.com/headlines/story.php?id=5074889

  • StrikeFirst

    Can that be charted on Thinkorswim?

    Thanks.

  • Skynard

    We had an hourly divergence along with a weak 5 min signal on this mornings sell off.

  • Skynard

    Agree, my EURUSD trade slightly in the red and has not gone anywhere. Although, AUDJPY is smoking! Going to stick with the Aussie:)

    Edit:Surprised that EURUSD was not stopped out because my stop is at 1.2444. My lucky day it seems:)

  • Joe_Jones

    gone negative, albeit slightly

  • supervilin

    oh i see the light now! 🙂

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    where is Convict Scott?  did he go AWOL?

    today wasn’t an inside inside day, but man it came close!?

    http://s9.postimage.org/z77t88bfz/temp1.png 

  • supervilin

    Tnx for your input, mates!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    not enough to change the line. or paint a box.

  • MrMargin

    Posted this earlier, though it’s not about VIX but the SPX: http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.de/2012/06/historical-implications-of-mondays.html

  • StrikeFirst

    We’re once again sticking our noses where they don’t belong.

    The “rebels” are CIA-backed terrorists.

    And to think that Obummer won a Nobel peace prize.

    Hah!

  • Joe_Jones

    Yup. The illuminated need to clear the path for the Israeli jets to attack their next target. One problem with that strategy though: Russia and China stand in the way. I think one of the market sell off goals is to reduce oil prices enough to create a buffer for higher prices when the decision to attack Syria and Iran is finally called in.
     

  • MrMargin

    Somewhat bullish chart. So far CL has been able to defend the 200-week SMA.

  • StrikeFirst

    This is the same kind of interventionist crap that led to WWII.

    I’m somewhat worried, because world war is the only way out of our present economic woes.

    History doesn’t necessarily repeat itself.. but it does rhyme.

    Rich man’s war… poor man’s fight.

  • newbfxtrader

    Looks like you had a good day nice!

  • Skynard

    Other than being stopped out of my /DX trade, thumbs up! Not going to short anything for a while:)

  • newbfxtrader

    I agree. I mean with all the world is ending news out there S&P is still holding on to 1300+. Seems extremely bullish to me.

  • newbfxtrader
  • Skynard

    FN dollar was strong with this rally, who knows maybe it rallies with it.

  • Skynard

    Can not see the /DX opening higher tonight!

  • amokta

     Just opened higher, un peu.

  • Skynard

    Ya, nothing like last nights gap though, think it’s a good short but like I said “not again”.

  • amokta

    I dont understand currencies – bring back the gold standard 🙂

    Anyway, catch you all tomorrow!

  • newbfxtrader

    keep on dreaming….

  • Joe_Jones

    You hit it on the head StrikeFirst

  • Skynard

    Ya, the next gold standard will be the government taking the gold that you own.

  • Skynard

    AUDJPY, 79/ES, 1315 should act as support. Moving some stops, ah what the heck we are still below 1330 here. Safe than sorry:)

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/X3UHQ24EPYQVH62MCJVJM4KIJI peter

    dupe

  • StrikeFirst

    Mamma didn’t raise no fool.

  • Fibz

    Yea, I think the idea is to start a civil war between the Sunnis and Shi’ites. That would cause some inflation. I don’t think we’ll be involved though.

  • Fibz
  • http://profile.yahoo.com/X3UHQ24EPYQVH62MCJVJM4KIJI peter

    What I meant to post is that EUR.USD crossed the 1.25 mark at least once in 40 separate hourly candles in the last seven days and /ES crossed 1318 at least once during 20 separate hourly candles in the last four days.  Chopshop.

  • thepercolator

    And mine too, I’ll be locked & loaded in my freedom bunker.

  • simonn1080

    Opex week … would be the reasoning behind the choperoo

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/X3UHQ24EPYQVH62MCJVJM4KIJI peter

    Hear you.  Just seems particularly so, and with greater deviation from those modes than is typical.  Will have to look into that.

  • Joe_Jones

    Cool, looks like an interesting read… 😛
    Gotta love the Kindle for the quick access it provides to the book 

  • Joe_Jones
  • Joe_Jones
  • tradem4alpha

    Like the Bear Sterns executives (or Dick Fuld): “we are fine, we are well capitalized”…BOOOYAHHH

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Did it yesterday.

  • Fibz

    Daily outflows of 500-800 million euros from Greek banks in recent days. Maybe NBG will run a spiderman towel promotion if Syriza loses.

  • Skynard

    1315 holding and EURUSD seemed to catch on:)

  • AMCabrera

    Alright guys save the campfire stories for weekends. Lets get serious.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Thank you!!

  • Schwerepunkt

    Get serious? OK, Netherlands v. Germany. That’s serious. 

  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/225a26f8-4da5-41e2-8b9d-9747f2be462c/2012-06-13_0809.png
    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/e937af0a-933f-4336-b076-1e6f5080f724/2012-06-13_0811.png
    ok I went ahead before I went to bed last night and bought 1.2510 not 1.2530. It gives me more room for my stop as I there is a high possibility that 1.2675 gets hit for only stop running purposes. I also have a brand new position taken in the USD/NOK as it broke that little range. In equities, well more than likely the same ole same ole. I say the same ole because I see the EUR/USD doing it too going back to the levels that it reached on Sunday at 3 pm.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    sir, I am (as) serious as a heart attack.

    SPX has a serious possibility of breaking higher today/tomorrow.
    at least a run to the daily 50MA, if not to the higher fan line.
    http://s13.postimage.org/5yd7sh5ut/heart_attack.png
    -DG

  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/7c76eaf8-fe7e-4a26-b418-cb325b85a688/2012-06-13_0841.png
    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/c3a79c99-62ac-4547-b4fc-2e8a8b80a9b7/2012-06-13_0841.png
    daily and monthly order book. you can see on the daily buying pressure is pretty good (cumulative) and that monthly selling pressure has receded. In other words if by today or tomorrow 1.2675-1.2700 is reached Ill see you guys sunday night.

  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/a3903599-9f03-442f-a89f-d664c202cf69/2012-06-13_0848.png
    There it is a tough call. Perhaps going long is best has I still have my bullish tilt which is a basis but we need a prayer to get out of limbo.

  • Skynard

    Stopped out of remaining /ES. Buyer here on the signal line:)

  • Skynard

    SPX 1318 holds at the 50 on the 5min and it’s all good:)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    SPX 1316 remain at 50 & 200 on the 10min.
    safety net. no worries.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Told you guys to stay the f… out – it’s nothing but a woodchipper right now.

  • Schwerepunkt

    watch for a zero-line rejection of the $TICK 10-min EMA. If that happens, down we go . . . 

  • Skynard

    All good in the neighborhood, Ay?

  • AMCabrera

    I agree.

  • ronebadger

    that’s us…. Stainless Steel Woodchippers

  • Skynard

    Ah, got it, Thanks:) Stop @ 1308, if taken out will more than likely be done for the day. We got a tiny div on the 5 min here though.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Lately been getting a snap-back of the amateur hour trend from 10am-10:15am. Might want to see if that transpires. OTOH, a stop is a stop.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Skynard

    Looks to be testing support is all. What’s the word now? BOOOYAHHH! Hehehehe:)

  • Skynard

    Those bulls will have a mighty test today. IMO if the trend is changing SPX 1335 will be the next target. Will reduce long @ 1330 though.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Skynard

    Oh, improper spelling, got it:)

  • Skynard

    Low participation day. Got to love it:)

  • Skynard

    Good call yesterday JJ on the pullback.

  • StrikeFirst
  • http://profile.yahoo.com/X3UHQ24EPYQVH62MCJVJM4KIJI peter

    Minding the advice to steer clear for the most part but could not resist the ID NR4 on /RB, which is breaking to the upside after a long sell off. 

  • Skynard

    Yikes! Another rocket ship:)

  • supervilin

    Push higher on low participation = today last leg up before reversal? what is your interpretation? tnx

  • Skynard

    Waiting for Mole’s volume hole to go short if we see a decent div develop. SPX 1330, although that will be a ST short.

  • Skynard

    That is not necessarily true. Just difficult to get an accurate read on the ZL.

  • Skynard

    Keep in mind that if we gap hard above that mark will stay long.

  • Joe_Jones

    Ok. That’s my entry to reload shorts.

  • Skynard

    New high folks, that is bullish IMO:)

  • Joe_Jones

    Hope you realized the divergence with VIX this morning. Something stinks and one of them should give in.

  • ronebadger

    ?????? right around this area  ??????  (ES/SPX)

     http://newauthors.files.wordpress.com/2010/07/texture-red-brick-wall.jpg

  • Joe_Jones

    LMAO!

  • Skynard

    Hope is not in my trading vocabulary. Could care less where VIX is at right now. All that I’m currently watching is the ZL and the dollar. Besides it’s OPX week:)

  • AMCabrera

    Im done with EUR/USD pulling profits. keeping USD/NOK however.

  • Skynard

    Testing 1315 area now. That div & blue arrow played out quite well here. ZL is weak here.

  • Joe_Jones

    VWAP needs to hold for the bulls

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I’m telling ‘ya you should change your name to SKYNET.
    you are a machine

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I think NOK has just about played out it’s hand.
    trend is down yes, but is straying far away from the 200

    http://s12.postimage.org/p2oq5p3el/nok.png

  • Skynard

    Geez! Check out Oats!!!!!!!!!!!
    http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

  • Skynard

    Dollar still getting trashed! At an important level now, 82 on the DXY:)

  • Skynard

    Could be a Nighty Night! As professor AMC would say:)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I must be a vampire….all I see is neckline.
    he he he

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    ouch 3 hours outside of breaking the pennant.

  • Skynard

    Go long, dollar lost support:)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    trend slightly up, morning open sell, face rip, repeat.
    aka: why DG hated being a bear in 2010.
    http://s12.postimage.org/3pu9bb0jf/temp1.png

  • Skynard

    Adding /ES at VWAP:)

  • AMCabrera

    Thank you! Im glad you pointed this out I was feeling to complacent with the pair. That’s why Ive taken out the eur/usd.

  • Schwerepunkt

    VIX is not buying this rally. Big players buying condoms. Greece gets crushed by Russia on Saturday — souring the mood of an already angry electorate. The left trounces the buffoons. Markets collapse. 

  • AMCabrera

    DG! whatcha see. AUD/USD 3 and 4 hour chart. Looks like you can put a short and buy on either side of candle? Inside candles.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I am but the Padawan.
    use the extreme deltas Master.

  • Joe_Jones

    Nice H&S pattern developing on the hourly SPX

  • AMCabrera
  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I can only do 2 hr charts.
    ..don’t see any T’s.
    do see a coiled spring, with overhead resistance.

    http://s14.postimage.org/u8be5bfm9/temp2.png 

  • Skynard

    Keeping it simple, if the dollar fails here will remain long. If not will be stopped out @ 1312.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    could be a (May) ramp- (June) camp.

  • StrikeFirst

    Neither is gold, apparently.

  • Joe_Jones

    or a permanently high plateau
    😉

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    the pennant may have been broken, but not the Fan
    how the Market loves drama.

    http://s15.postimage.org/k2id3l961/drama.png 

  • Skynard

    Still targeting SPX 1330, good momentum going in the bulls favor.

  • StrikeFirst

    Been long since yesterday.

    If we make new highs here, will be adding more.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That link does not make any sense to me. And it’s not funny either. Can we PLEASE not turn this into the fucking Slope??

    Thank you.

  • Joe_Jones

    ZL neg div + blue light special: all in short now. See you at dinner bulls.

  • MrMargin

    Accompanied by a a waning ZL. I’m not a big fan of H&S formations on lower time frames, but this looks meaningful.

  • amokta
  • Joe_Jones

    I am hesitating between a tartar sauce or black pepper gravy to have with it.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Pride cometh before the fall?

  • Joe_Jones

    I have my stops just above the volume hole, so I don’t risk much. Potential reward is definitively worth it.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    it’s been a wood chipper day last two hours.

  • Skynard

    Time to watch that 5 min:)

  • Skynard

    IMO given that it is OPX and the bulls have the ball the market should blow right by 1330:)

  • AMCabrera
  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IF7HINHIP5ITYT6TDHACMWJUXQ Huisok

    ok, goldie locks 🙂

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IF7HINHIP5ITYT6TDHACMWJUXQ Huisok

    watch gold at the top of the down trendline will see if it breaks 1625

  • AMCabrera
  • Skynard

    Another assending on the 5 min here.

  • ronebadger

     http://newauthors.files.wordpress.com/2010/07/texture-red-brick-wall.jpg

  • AMCabrera

    breaks my heart by going for a long USD/NOK but anyhow take profit near where I will go short again 6.000 stop loss 5.9600

  • Joe_Jones

    JNK:TLT pointing well South FYI

  • ronebadger

    for you guys that are long (I meant that in the equity sense…)

     http://image.yaymicro.com/rz_1210x1210/0/9d0/broken-brick-wall-in-the-room-9d0a1f.jpg

  • AMCabrera
  • Skynard

    LOL! That ZL could hold a horse:)

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤ø„¸  N E W  „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • StrikeFirst

    Vix new high for the day.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Pretty solid signals today. Me like.

  • Skynard

    Damn! took me out. Got back on the train:) Diverging positive