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FOMC Stand By Mode
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FOMC Stand By Mode

by The MoleJanuary 6, 2016

In case you haven’t heard – we’ve got FOMC minutes on the roster today. As usual they’ve scheduled it mid-session, guaranteeing marginal participation for most of the day:

Not sure why this can’t be done in the morning so we can move on with our respective trading activities.

2016-01-06_spoos

After a promising start yesterday equities were sent to the woodshed overnight. My long position with it of course. Right now I see zero entry opportunities here – quite simply it’s not advantageous to find yourself so close to medium term support hours away from an FOMC announcement. Volatility is almost guaranteed to take you out.

2016-01-06_ZB

Miraculously the bond campaign survives thus far and I’m keeping it in play as it was a small position to begin with. Otherwise I would probably reduce my exposure as price has revertedΒ nearΒ my entry and my stop is still at -1R. Not an optimal strategic entry in my book.

Alright, I’ll chime in here after the FOMC madness has subsided a little.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Round we go

    “Volatility is almost guaranteed to take you out.”

    yah for you daytraders, us older dudes have possitions from before new years. My big positions are in rwm and psq and they can not hurt me in one day even if it is a 3% move at this point. my swing trade of tza and tvix are small so I can take some heat but if a 2% came I would be out of those.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Long nq 4420, scalp

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Sold 4427

  • BKXtoZERO

    Went long crude via UWTI 3.30 2R seeing divergence on RSI from Aug low, to Dec low, to now and possible double bottom.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Cmon fill that gap. Sitting flat am looking for a short.

  • Mark Shinnick
  • BobbyLow

    Nice one! I wish I had your agility. πŸ™‚

  • Round we go

    i dont see a double bottom yet, it would need to get back above 35.5

    the rsi is below 50 and pointing down.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    I wish I stayed in another few mins, it’s at 4448 now

  • BobbyLow

    Ya but 7 Points for a few minutes work in a dangerous market is better than “a poke in the eye with a sharp stick”. πŸ™‚

  • Round we go

    stoch pointing down, macd looks like it is rolling over. rsi can enter oversold and embed or bounce here.

  • Round we go

    taking 1/2 sqqq

  • BobbyLow

    Looking at the price action over the last 3 minutes after 10:30 feels like another build in supply or at the very least no draw down.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Agreed

  • Round we go

    shit I posted the wrong chart. here is UWTI

    stoch pointing down, macd looks like it is rolling over. rsi can enter oversold and embed or bounce here.

    mole we cant edit the photo that has already been uploaded?

  • Round we go

    I upload the wrong chart before.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Looks the right decision as we proceed further into our trading day.

  • BobbyLow

    I can remove it if you want me to.

  • Round we go

    I just deleted it.
    all tho it is good chart, I repost with right comments.

  • Round we go

    weekly es chart.

    stoch pointing down, macd fresh crossover. rsi below 50 and has room to go. low band 1900.

  • BobbyLow

    Done. I think I removed the right one.

  • Round we go

    does’nt matter cus oil crashed. guess the chart did show us that possibility πŸ™‚

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Zero snapshot:
    .

  • Round we go

    where’s scott? I am curious as to how he is positioned.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Am I dreaming or am I actually seeing charts today?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I have not heard from Scott for a long time now. Not sure what he’s doing and if he’s trading.

  • Round we go

    your comment was good. got me to wake up a bit. dont want to go overboard on indicators tho.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..just a dream go back to sleep.

    http://s2.postimg.org/vvpytkgmh/CMG_monthly.png

    CMG monthly.
    a chart showing how ‘declaring a top’ is extremely dangerous.
    this publicity exposure may cause a reset at ~$400, with a fourth push even higher.
    who knows??
    trade the tape. (full disclosure, I don’t touch food/consumer stocks)

  • OzarkHillBilly

    I inferred from his last post a few days ago that he was traveling and otherwise engaged.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    is that a pun? eye bleach, stat.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I would like to take this opportunity to clear up various questions about Skynard departure. In recent weeks I have seen quite a few statements that suggested that he had blown up his account. So let me be crystal clear: I personally have NO EVIDENCE to support any rumors that Skynard blew up his account. Yes, he left after a few readers and I called him out on what appeared to be over-trading. His ensuing departure was his choice and I have not heard from him ever since.

    Let’s not forget that he was a loyal participant here for many years and it would be of very low taste to smear his name, debate his motivations for leaving, and especially spread wild rumors about him. I hope he is well and is banking coin galore. Now let’s go back to business.

  • BKXtoZERO

    sold 1/2 TVIX at 7.2, gain of 0.60

  • mugabe

    I bet he’s trading

  • Round we go

    yah, I was going off what scott said. I just assume he left out of frustration. which probably means he was not fully in control of his trades. he has a gift, but he also has a darkness. he reminds of this guy named “silent” who posted on yahoo PM boards in 2111 during the hyperbolic move. he would always be 100% in PM’s on counter moves down he would hold all low beta pm stocks and when going up he would convert to all high beta stocks. that kid had skynard’s vision, but both had darkside, but silent did very well and the end and got out in time.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Entered QQQ for a quick trade. stop 107.5, target 110, 112

  • mugabe

    ermm .. I’m sure scott was/is in control of his trades. he’s a genuine pro … a rare breed
    edit: the fact he’s silent doesn’t mean he’s not trading .

  • Round we go

    then why did he get mad. he was all jokes and pumped when winning but he was not a good looser. which tells you something.

  • mugabe

    you’re talking about him as if he’s some sort of newbie trader, in this for his ego … he’s way, way past that

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    a newlywed? yeah, suure.

  • Round we go

    I am just telling you my experience with him here in oct. he and I were high fiving and laughing it up when he was winning. but when was loosing he was cold and snapped at people. just cus your talented and seasoned does not mean you are in control of your emotions. we all have our own demons.

  • Round we go

    is’nt this wild it’s all binary on FED talk. as the circus turns πŸ™‚

  • Round we go

    taking other half sqqq 4452 nas fut.

  • mugabe

    hmm… πŸ˜‰

  • BKXtoZERO

    so CL and UWTI are different charts. CL. Dec low for CL was 33.98, and today’s low was 34.17 (so far). Thanks for posting

  • ridingwaves

    exactly…he did some pretty cool charting also…
    he’s probably fine…just enjoying life and trading….

  • Round we go

    I posted the UWTI chart above.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Nobody’s talking about Scott – we’re talking about SKYNARD.

  • mugabe

    err, yes … sorry about that

  • BKXtoZERO

    OUT of UWTI for exactly 1R loss, have 5R gains so far in 2015 mostly TVIX

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Please see my comment above. I very much would appreciate it if we could drop the topic. As the saying goes – who that sits in a glasshouse should not throw stones. Let’s bury the topic.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I usually wait out FOMC days – not really my cup o’ tea…

  • BKXtoZERO

    Mostly cash Sir! see what they can come up with. Thanks for zero snap shots.

  • BobbyLow

    I don’t believe he blew up either.

    He and I came on board ES at about the same time around 2009. He had a lot of great participation throughout the years. I learned things from him along with learning from everyone else here. I noticed a sharp edge to some of his comments in the weeks prior to his leaving and a strong desire to demonstrate trading prowess that I had never seen before. So who knows what happened? I surely don’t. In any event, I wish him the best.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Not so hard thinking in R’s now. A small extra step and some 6th grade math. Sorry for being a phuckTard for so long.

  • Billabong

    I also learned a lot from him and the many others that have passed through….

  • Billabong

    LOL (belly laugh)…

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    The above makes it sound like he was consumed by the ring of power.

  • ridingwaves

    delete the comment

  • ridingwaves

    you don’t have any chicken stock in your soups?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I thought it appropriate to post this as I’m sick of seeing pertinent rumors polluting the comment section.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • OzarkHillBilly

    As a longtime lurker and observer, I noticed the same change in behavior. Maybe some of the extra criticism irritated him, or maybe this or maybe that. But I’m right there with y’all in wishing him the best.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Based on the 15 min NQ, the Zero readings, and bulls trying to get in on the run, I think we move lower first before exploding higher. FOMC may be the catalyst.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    This is how I’ve handled that situation when hitting rock bottom. I imagine that’s you or Scott or BobbyLow running over to give me a hand.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SUwPHTI47Lg

  • Round we go

    shit ubs playing seven year cycle. and turning bear.

  • Round we go

    30min says down also.

  • Round we go

    decliners still have the upper hand. 1943 to 4868

  • BKXtoZERO

    I hope he comes back. Everyone has their issues over time (and we learn from them and move on). Open arms here.

  • Round we go

    adding tvix 7.17

  • Round we go

    wow oil down 5%

  • Round we go

    es 30min update. if confirm midband break then 1973 bottom band.

  • ridingwaves

    VIX was much higher on Monday, yet we sit lower index wise…lots of trickery going on here…like fund managers using the news to buy stuff cheaper…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Sure, you try to trade a yearly chart, good luck!

  • Round we go

    just something to keep track of in the back of your head. for giggles what’s the next sequence 62% down?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Damn, now I see it – for some reason my feed wasn’t updating the chart. What is interesting, and not immediately apparent to most looking at a chart, is that at the current price levels a 1-handle drop is starting to become exponentially larger on the percentage scale.

  • Round we go

    can you say acceleration πŸ™‚

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    What I mean is that a move from 50 to 49 is a 2% drop. A move from 30 to 29 is a 3.33% drop

  • Round we go

    greater return per price as price lowers, why is not obvious πŸ™‚ when it was $140 , 1$ did not mean much. now?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well, this does affect leverage and I’m sure option pricing as well. I haven’t really looked into this topic but I’m sure someone who trades options professionally would be able to share more. I also think this may affect contango.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Exactly.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    This is also why quants always use LogReturn instead of price change.

  • Round we go

    i go my daily percentage % change simple πŸ™‚

  • BKXtoZERO

    Glad I kept it tight and got out. I thought I saw something that was not there. I am still not cured of trying to catch turns and thus beatings from Scott.

  • Round we go

    from your post of your trade record. from a old dude perspective you did a hella lot trades, but you were successful but as alan greenspan said, maybe your a hella lucky coin flipper πŸ™‚ something to think about and tweek as you go.

  • Round we go

    their fighting for the 30min midband. currently below.

    hourly looks weaker.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Long NQ 4434

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Sold at 4439.25

  • Round we go

    they are trying to pump the fed release, will see..

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Seems like it. If it doesnt exploding higher quickly, then Im not staying in any trade for too long. Could be a trap.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    The goal is to never get into that position,
    but yeah, +1 for attitude.

  • Round we go

    oil just dropped to 6%

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    did you not listen to me yesterday? some people.. geez.

    “next support level ..2001 low.”

  • BobbyLow

    Perhaps this is a good opportunity for you to review what you thought you saw and WHY?

    We all have our own indicators and what makes sense to one person might not make sense to another. I don’t know what your time frame was going to be on this trade but I think you were looking at a divergence from August and December and I kind of scratched my head on that one. Of course I wouldn’t recoginize a divergence if it jumped off my chart and bit me in the ass so I’m not a good person to judge divergences. πŸ™‚

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Zero snappy….

    .

  • Round we go

    did you think it was going to happen today?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    hell no.
    πŸ˜€

  • Huey

    yikes, just got long SPY for a swing, gonna need that hourly zero line to turn up.

  • Round we go

    i recommend you cross check spot commodity price charts with your stock tick or option chart.

  • Round we go

    so it up to the 5m at the midband. is there an edge you see.

  • Round we go

    Die! Die! Die!

  • BobbyLow

    Long after the dust settles, I usually take a look at this report that I believe Big Players knew about long before 10:30 AM this morning. But believe it or not there was a 5 Million Barrel. Drawdown. However, there was a 10 Million Barrel Build in Gasoline. So don’t light a match. πŸ™‚

    “A dip back in imports contributed to a 5.1 million barrel draw in oil inventories to 482.3 million barrels in the January 1 week. Though refineries cut back on gasoline production, gasoline inventories still jumped 10.6 million barrels. Distillate inventories, here reflecting an increase in refinery production, rose 6.3 million barrels and remain unusually heavy, the result of this winter’s unseasonable warmth. Demand readings are unusually weak and are pointing to less refinery output ahead with gasoline down 3.6 percent year-on-year and distillates down 9.3 percent. Rising product inventories together with weak demand is not a good combination for the oil sector. WTI, at $34.50, is falling sharply in initial reaction to the data.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    well that never bodes well for equities

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Break upwards on 4442 NQ will take it higher. thats 15 min resistance for the day

  • Round we go

    it bodes well for hedges blowing up.

  • Round we go

    rut near low of day, any more weakness…..

    Ding Ding Ding, testing 1980es fail!

  • Darkthirty

    What is “dick in the dirt”, for 20K alex

  • Round we go

    you totally lost me what the hell do you do with a dick in the dirt :I

  • BobbyLow

    It’s looking for Vanna White. πŸ™‚

  • Round we go

    you lost me on that one too :I

    I am so retarded ;(

    you want to f it?

  • Huey

    That was a quick stop out!

  • BKXtoZERO

    once again, I had no idea report was due, I only watch price/chart and when I saw it hit my area of interest I gave it a shot. Didn’t work this time.

  • Darkthirty

    Opposite of tits up!

  • Darkthirty

    Cracker talk. KO going down et al

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    That was a trap

  • BKXtoZERO

    tonight

  • Round we go

    your alarm should have been bobby and me, to recheck your setup. did go and relook at everything? like the oil spot chart?

    I would never take one persons word to sway me. but as an alarm it can be very useful. mole is an alarm for me. and so are you, bobby, riding ( minus the unicorn stuff ).

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    stopped out and flipped. wow

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    What are you trading?

  • BobbyLow

    Wow! I don’t know what the minutes said but it must not have promised to give more free money to the BOYZ.

  • Round we go

    no time to not get complacent if your short. we can see one of those 15min ramp close. but even if they do. overnight will confirm either way. cus all this is about china liquidity, and if they decide to let it go before intervening.

    testing the 30 min lower band.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    QQQ

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    So you were long and now flipped short?

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    QLD more specifically, Im using QQQ to chart it

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Yeh

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    ok to be stopped out, but Im not sure why you would flip so quickly.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Where is Lucy? I have TVIX and DRV and Lucy is nowhere in sight.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I did. I saw posts and SERIOUSLY appreciate you guys and your input.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    just be careful, for snap back.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24RUT&p=D&yr=1&mn=10&dy=0&id=p93673398352

    (Looking at the old 2014 OCT low)

  • Round we go

    Rut clear breakdown. stay away PPT. be gone you devils.

  • Round we go

    will see if the bottom band gets pushed down.

  • Round we go

    es 4h has rsi divergence, it needs to push down and embed.

  • BobbyLow

    Short GBP/JPY currently up +4.65R with Stop set at +3.53R.

    Did I ever say how much I love this Pair? πŸ™‚

  • Round we go

    there trick is to lower volatility to make support markets. the downside to that, miss priced risk! so if shit hits the fan then it really hits the fan. πŸ™‚ let hope they are out of bullets.

  • Round we go

    I hope yen just rip into the stratosphere and take out the greedy carry traders and hedges πŸ™‚

  • Round we go

    it maybe retest time.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Vix seems stuck below 22 even after late drop. Something smells.

  • BobbyLow

    Yep, this thing will keep going until it runs out of gas. Then it’ll probably sputter, poop and pop for a little while. Then it will usually either continue to fall some more or turn around and go up like a rocket at the same pace it went down. If you get a chance take a look at a 10 Year Daily Chart of this thing. Wash, Rinse, Repeat.

    I compare Currency Pairs especially this one to my Two Cats who alternately chase each other from one end of my house to the other. They never catch each other but it’s all about the chase. πŸ™‚

  • ridingwaves

    the move north will be vicious….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    of course it does. welcome oh wise one.
    πŸ˜‰

    justification of a DOW support using RSI.

    http://s29.postimg.org/l18cypaef/snapback.png

  • Round we go

    wow, not machine like at all πŸ™

  • Round we go

    it is so wrong

  • Round we go

    daily damage is done. will keep swing unless es get above 2000 in the last 10 min.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    hope is not a strategy

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ya’think?
    πŸ˜‰
    Muwahaha.

  • Round we go

    you out?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    yeah.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Up 5R TVIX 2016 and still sitting on 2R πŸ˜‰

  • Round we go

    So close mole es close 1982 πŸ™‚

  • ridingwaves

    enough fear and shorts right now to push higher quickly with hopium instead of dopium……I bought some long term plays at lows…

  • Round we go

    nice profit, let me get us to the goal line or do a face plant. either way.

    will see what china has in store….

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well, my bond campaign is coming along well. Moving stop to 1R mark.

    .

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Pay up bitch!!

  • Round we go

    what you mean, the deal was close below 1980. you know how you preach sticking with your rules. if it was up to drunken monkey I would have subscribed in middle of day as gesture of faith. but I know how you and scott feel about breaking the rules πŸ™‚

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I don’t make deals – I extract by force.

  • Round we go

    actually how do you join? your site is jacked up. I will do gold for now, cus I used to my ways with indicators and I really dont know what zero does actually so will need to read how it works. but this monkey is lazy as you know.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You’re right – I definitely need a big sign up button on top. Here’s the direct link:

    https://evilspeculator.com/amember/signup.php

  • Round we go

    so you closed out too? I feel so lonely πŸ™

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    I am long NQ 4431, my trajectory is drawn below (I suck at making lines and arrows). I will hold this small position overnight. I may decide to take profits at some point later tonight, or just trail my stop. We’ll see.

  • Round we go

    signed up. looks like my account when I signed up in 2011 is active. how do you change the user name?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    About damn time… welcome to the team.

  • Round we go

    i am blaming it on signing up if we gap up tomorrow.

  • strider

    signed up again also….good stuff here Sir Mole

  • Round we go

    man will see if today was a bear trap πŸ™ will need to make a exit strategy of swings for tomorrow, but the daily and weekly look good. but the shorterm charts are showing divergences. may have been too greedy.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    I’m out

  • kudra

    I’m short the QQQ’s overnight (via QID at 31.70). QQQ has been stair steppin down over past 5 days. Close above $110 and I’m out. ran an overnight QID trade yesterday entered 31.06; 31.89 exit.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    If you plan to hold your QQQ’s long term from looking at a weekly chart, you are likely correct. Im a scalper, so this is strictly a very short term trade based on the 15 min candles, end of day ramp, and Zero indications. I’ll probably have taken profit later tonight or by tomorrow morning before the open.

  • kudra

    Not looking to be correct, just trying to extract $ from mrkt. during a trend. There’s a sell the rip, bearishness in the market currently. It’s not particularly strong and it may be over, but that’s been the prevailing wind so far this year, a lot like last year. Lat year it was sour Jan. followed by rip your face off slow grind higher Feb through July.

  • kudra

    This selloff has definitely featured some quick counter rips.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Excellent…

  • kudra

    You’re looking good. Looks like i’ll wake up to pain.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Ford..
    my Father said the last good ones made were in ’32.

    http://s24.postimg.org/4i9qdppzp/Ford_2015.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    The Leeches are envious. Congrats!

  • kudra

    QQQ chart:

    http://scharts.co/1ZOxU91

    futures gyrating

  • kudra

    sorry for play by play. But US equity futures just did dramatic turn for red. wow. Is that right?

  • BobbyLow

    I just took a peek before shutting down for the night and I’ve got ES currently down 11 Points. I’m not trading Futures so I try not to pay too much attention to the E-minis in AH because direction can change so many times between now and the NYSE Open.

    You know where your stop is going to be and you have a plan. That’s all you can do besides let it play out.

  • Round we go

    yah its still night action it seams with china. lets see if they plug the hole….

  • Round we go

    thats one perspective that makes sense.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Yes they did, I had an order in for exit at 4450 but never hit. I’m out for a 8 point loss now in this downturn. Tomorrow is another day.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    The PBOC has stepped in and dramatically devalued the Yuan fix by 0.5% to 6.5646.

    also

    With the world ever more interlinked economically, gone are the days when one time zone (of Asia/Europe/the US) could be neglected at any given time to the benefit of the others. This has forced us, over the past two years, to resume the brutal hours we stepped back from in 2010

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Thank goodness for that stop. Nqs down big now

  • kudra

    Aw, man. You were nicely in the black on that trade in the early after hours. If you’re playing for the scalp, you gotta get your knife out quick and take it when it’s there.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Your qqq short should be good if this keeps up to the morning. Im not too worried about the loss of my potential profits on that long nq trade. Yea I was nicely in the green there but that’s what stops are for. If anything, this action may give an excellent long entry at some point tomorrow. Lets see.

  • BobbyLow

    I might keep an eye on Forex for a little while longer. The GBP/JPY is getting whacked some more and I just lowered my stop again. Although this is just “one of the next 1,000 trades”, it has been my best Forex Trade ever especially in terms of PIPs which is at about 1,200 and still counting.

    Over the past few weeks what was possible has become a reality. πŸ™‚

  • kudra

    Respect, Candle.

    Looks like it’s release the Cracken time. Futures down hard.

  • Round we go

    update on 4h es, so bending the band down, stoch and rsi embeding as needed and needs to stay embeded. bed got it, go to sleep. you two. and macd pointing down. so extreme conditions and needs to stay extreme or a V recovery.

  • BobbyLow

    I’m a little embarrased to admit to putting on a Bullish Put Credit Spread on GLD just before the close. I still believe that the Option Market is the most deceptive market of all and have stated this repeatedly. However in some rare cases, I’m still a sucker for short term Credit Spreads no longer than 3 weeks out.

    Golds up another $10 at this moment and we’ll see if it holds. πŸ™‚

  • Round we go

    the oil and gold man. oil dipped in $32 area. it may hit 30 tomorrow or Friday.

  • BobbyLow

    I haven’t done as well with Gold in the past but I’ve been stalking it for some time. It’s been on a road to nowhere for the past month but today’s price action broke the December 4th high and otherwise showed a buy signal by my lens. Of course this could be yet another false alarm but Gold is another one that can fuck around for weeks on end and then get into a good run. So we’ll see what happens.

  • BobbyLow

    Time for me to watch a little mindless TV and get some sleep. Catch up to y’all in the AM.

  • Round we go

    yah but bear are so hungry with the extended tapper hibernation. old bear get mean sometimes and take all the traders out of the action. note how everybody is condition to play the range. the market is hallow right now. it’s gaping out of control. its going to die down fast or it is going to get extreme for a short time.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Billabong

    Here we go again. China barely open, down 7% and halted for the rest of the day…. Yuan devaluation continues.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    silly paper.
    go go Gold.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Kudos to you for spilling the beans. Not sure if I would have done that quite yet, but I haven’t been following it closely nor do we know all the pertinent details. But Jan 30th gives you plenty of time to work it. I’m a fan of spread strategies but I never became proficient. The dollar’s movement might give us a clue for GLD’s direction.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    First thing that comes to mind for me is that if I had serious money sloshing around in China, I’d be trying to get it the hell out. Looks like that’s been going on for awhile, but the slow learners are all rushing for the exit at the same time. I’d expect capital controls at some point 9not necessarily soon) if it gets out of hand.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Hey Bobby. My errors are: 1) as per Van Tharpe, How are you feeling, are you ON your game, prepared, relaxed, rested. NO, NO and NO. Wife and kid got up early for school and she wanted me to help 2) rushing, I was looking at 1 year chart and eyeballed the RSI line and saw space. The RSI looked to be diverging, less weak at each low. The actual numbers did not bear that out. 20.93 Aug, 29.78 December (higher)! 3) again a case of trying to play a turn which is ill advised and has been a hard habit for me to drop. On the bright side, in a double bottom scenario it is simple, it is or it isn’t and you find out quickly. Dec low was 33.98 (CL) and today when it hit 34 I gave it a quick shot. People with better tech skills would have seen evidence that MOMO was strong and DB was not likely. I like to see things come down gradually, under control on less volume and test a price. This was not it! To my credit, I kept it tight. I would never hold one of those unless it did reverse at that moment and I was up with a hammer. Thanks for caring/helping!

  • OzarkHillBilly

    When it gets to this phase, I just assume that the initial move in futures is going to be reversed, unless it’s simply too big of a move to mistake. Of course, it could do anything before morning; futures lead the way, but when resolution comes it will ultimately come in the cash market, IMHO.

  • Bernie

    everything is tanking – crude and copper and indices
    well, almost everything

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://pugsma.wordpress.com/denalis-turning-points/ denali92

    Mole – GREAT site changes – well done! HAPPY NEW YEAR!

    Looking forward to your post today, I am sure it will be a classic….

    Given we RARELY ever trade straight down through a late employment report AND mids closed hourly OS on the Wednesday before employment, which gives an edge the next day, I am getting involved for the first trade this year – Long ES at 1950.50 and e-mids at 1334.20. ALSO, the GAP GUY has VERY strong stats for today on gap fill.

    Also, as I have been watching it FOREVER and done nothing, I have bought a tiny bit of March oil at 33.53 as it feels like there is real FEAR and BLOOD out there….. probably more to come, but these are just small time to get involved positions.

    Anyway, just thought I would stop by…. really intrigued to see the ZERO this am.

    -D

  • TheRooster

    closed above the 2 std dev bollinger as well – i like this trade Bobby

  • TheRooster

    Scott, if you are watching the Brissie trip isnt happening this week but I think Sydney next week, Thursday or Friday if you have time to catch up. Will post up when I have details.

  • mugabe

    yep… bobby’s long yen short crude trades are gonna be ones to remember

  • Round we go

    wow es 1930, i love it that mella the brat was gloating about bears still holding, a hot streak has made her cocky and now pie in face. now I am gloating so i probably will get a pie in my face. I could not believe how so few traders were holding short at close. it felt like tim, bobby and I are the only shorts who held. some sloper longs are going to have one big awakening. an other day in the circus.

    man at this point my only chart that is stable is the weekly chart, even the daily chart is wacked out now. bottom band target 1890 and bending down, macd confirmed down cross, and RSI with plenty of room and clearly below 50.

    the reference I can see is the aug crash.

  • Round we go

    RUT my baby testing aug crash low.

  • newbfxtrader

    Time to BTFD

  • newbfxtrader

    If Sky was here I would now ask him if its time to BTFD….

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Where is everyone? Last night a stop saved me with an 8 point loss rather than 138 pts as NQ’s are down heavy this morning. I was wrong about my trajectory, but this was an overnight move, and said trajectory can still be in place. I’ll be looking for a long entry. I will avoid shorting at these already low levels. Lot of gaps to be filled, and snap back surges can take out newcomer shorters quickly

  • kim

    not sure, i would rather add shorts at better prices then looking for longs since we are in down trend.. at least short term down trend.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m here I’m here. Was working on the site and am running late with my post.

  • Round we go

    yah i got my sells programmed some today and some tomorrow. I am saving my cash for STFR. maybe a small hedge on the counter. not going to be greedy go with the flow.

  • Darkthirty

    No lock limit opens …..yet. I got out just to regroup, run some charts, and get the big picture.

  • Round we go

    no kidding this the shit he is made for.

  • Darkthirty

    He’s hitting it………

  • tradingmom

    Mole — do you think you could eyeball the main inputs for the daily zero and give us an idea of whether or not there would be a divergence btwn aug/sept and now on the daily? Just wondering…

  • Round we go

    my daily rsi shows no oversold condition. crazy huh. its like there is no participation at all. price drops in a hollow market?

  • tradingmom

    which goes along w/ the lagging vix.

  • Round we go

    wow, now china suspends circuit breaker. BTFD maybe suicide. also note how quite the FED is.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-07/china-suspends-circuit-breaker-rule-insane-we-were-forced-liquidate-all-our-holdings

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

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  • OzarkHillBilly

    From what i understand, there’s a bit of a policy struggle between the new guard and the old guard as to how to approach these little crises.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I held my TVIX. I exited half but had a heavier than usual position. Sky used to say “there is a time to be aggressive”…. I also believe that to a degree but have scaled back my idea of what is agressive and it has served me well.