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Fork In The Road Friday
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Fork In The Road Friday

by The MoleFebruary 23, 2018

It’s fork-in-the-road-friday, ladies and leeches. At this time, make sure your seat backs and tray tables are in their full upright position and that your seat belt is correctly fastened. Also, your portable electronic devices must be set to ‘buzz off I’m busy’ mode until further notice. Because when the door closes on these juicy entry opportunities you are either on board or you’ll be left behind.

I’m seeing coiled up inflection points all across various verticals this morning and that means we’ve been sitting on our hands long enough – it’s entry time! The spoos are settling into  small sideways range but I don’t expect that to last for long. My plan is to be long on a breach > 2371 .25 or short on a breach < 2696.5. We may actually get both and I’m willing to take both sides if there’s a fake out attempt preceding final resolution.

Bitcoin is still flailing around but the current formation on the ST panel looks enticing enough to risk a long position here with a stop < 9550. I would not yet be ready to take a short after a stop out. Most likely I would have to monitor the situation and perhaps re-entry short on a retest of 9550.

Litecoin is also a long here with a stop < 188. Unless you’re trading a cracker account I suggest you  split 1% between BTC and LTC as there is massive correlation risk.

Quick update on our crude campaign: It’s slow going but crude continues to crawl its way higher. If it can overcome its 25-day SMA I think we may see it pining for 66 again.

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So indeed forks in the road all over the place. This is going to be interesting.

Enjoy your weekends!


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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BTC: 1MwMJifeBU3YziDoLLu8S54Vg4cbnJxvpL
BCH: qqxflhnr0jcfj4nejw75klmpcsfsp68exukcr0a29e
ETH: 0x9D0824b9553346df7EFB6B76DBAd1E2763bE6Ef1
LTC: LUuoD6sDWgbqSgnpo5hceYPnTD9MAvxi6c

  • Mary

    When you come to a fork in the road, take it. — Yogi Berra

  • HD

    Agree, sick a fork in it. Time to move away from these prices. 50DMA still in control. >50DMA and we still get to 2911, TL breaks and we see more retrace. Last Friday SPX rallied 30 https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8accf71c4bea0853b479103deae657d8b2e566327bad6d5952a029a7302e793d.png

  • HD

    /BTC tagged the .382 retrace after a 100% rally. Potential cupnhandle low. 10,300 is a big level IMO https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1c98f509b5b7ffc18d2022c067726e2d457963289a0c58bb26774781b11101ae.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    When I was a younger lad, I tried to stick a Tee into everything.
    so I really refrain nowadays.

    But this High Yield Credit, well – it’s just begging for one.
    Mid-March for maximum carnage if shit doesn’t straight up month end/begin.

    Price is always king. It needs to get above 50% of the drop, to objectively show recovery.
    -GG

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/99bcd84e845d7372e06f4e6857c6ea3c9023b6347f0b0b5f39f6e856f4a1e7be.png

  • Edgy

    Bad news, just heard an ad on the radio to refi your mortgage. One of the reasons given among paying off bills and such, was “getting in on the Bitcoin dip.”

  • HD

    ha, no way. FOMO

  • ridingwaves

    that’s not good….folks are maxed out on housing….they will know some pain in what lies ahead….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    block chain technology is going to gut the Mortgage industry, like Netflix did to Blockbuster. If you are a paper pusher in that industry, be afraid.

    https://www.nasdaq.com/article/how-blockchains-can-disrupt-the-mortgage-market-cm848889

  • Mary

    Netflix provided a new delivery mechanism for the same content.

    What does block chain have to do with lending on real estate?

  • ridingwaves

    some auto sector friends think it will also play into auto financing..

  • Darkthirty

    Gonna be sittin for awhile waiting for a 2371.25 breach………..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    not so much lending. think of the paper work around property title.

    ..a public ledger that includes real estate titles, planning permissions, deeds as well as other associated information could be developed for the mortgage industry. Such a ledger could be easily accessible and publicly available to make the mortgage process more efficient by reducing the time it takes to collect all required information to conclude a mortgage transaction.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Think about it….anyone buying into RE the past few years is naturally-selected for that kind of marketing.

  • HD

    BTC lost 70% in 2 months, that was the crash IMO. It’s just a trading product for me. I’m not on the crypto mania wagon. Already fell for that with silver.

  • Edgy
  • Mark Shinnick

    Title – The all-time biggest rip-off of the RE business.

  • Mark Shinnick

    🙂

  • Mark Shinnick

    Such a event into a natural measuring objective is exactly what I’m anticipating for some months now, for if we simply assume the rule-of-thumb objective of the natural interest rate we get that objective, then add a 2% inflation factor, and Voila! surprize surprize surprize to all the debtor suckers hooked-in over the last several years.
    https://youtu.be/2TnkJ8_BmSI

  • Julie

    Covering remaining 1/4 short GDX. Covered BAC short yesterday for BE. UNP short still maintain and BE
    JULIE

  • Edgy

    lol, yeah. BTW, did FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) ever mean anything like Federal Open Market Operations? POMO (P for “permanent”) was the buzz word during the Bernanke-helicopter-money age.

  • Julie

    GG I read that block chain will even have an impact on the oil industry
    JULIE

  • Julie

    USO short I am down in and watching at 12.87 resistance Broke above 12.68 resistance
    JULIE

  • Tomcat

    Good job, limit your losses and let your profits run. Cant win them all, but have to maximize your profits.

  • HD

    /BTC 10,300 level was a little early but…

  • HD

    That’s right. I only know it as fear of missing out. YOLO is probably a better one for crypto though 🙂

  • Julie

    Hi TC Did great on the GDX short. I am surprised by USO move . It broke down thru the 55 ema on very strong volume. Usually that presages dead cat bounces BUT I know where the resistances are and watching carefully. Yesterday I saw a bull flag developing BAC and covered for BE.UNP is struggling and a gap approx. 137. Friday’s usually have a neutral or bullish bias. Very seldom is the market down on a Friday
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    If it’s not allodial, it’s not REAL.

    welcome to Serfdom.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allodial_title

  • Julie

    Mary — GG Yogi Berra has a book out with all his sayings. Too Much Hilarious !
    JULIE

  • Julie

    RW I read recently the average price for a home in Seattle is $750.000. Portland too is skyrocketing. And California Yipes !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    Mole, Those little embedded crypto charts(upper right) are pretty sweet. Set the time to 5min and you can see an easy set up and trade from 10,300. I did 3 trades this month, 2 this week. Selected active on your poll but that’s not too active. I’d like to see 10,000 hold and really start moving.

  • Julie

    GG Yogi and Joe Garigiola grew up on the same street in St Louis and were friends their entire lives. .Basketball players Kevin Love (Cleveland) and Klay Thompson (Golden State) same thing . Neighbors growing up in Portland and both named to the NBA All Star team
    JULIE

  • HD

    $SPX 50DMA currently 2730.50

  • Tomcat

    Well if you “saw” a bull flag, was that not enough to flip your position from S to L?

  • ridingwaves

    L GC

  • Julie

    No TC BAC overbought monthly – weekly and daily. IMO not enough left. Actually looking for a longer term short
    JULIE

  • Tomcat

    GL, got stopped overnight with a tiny profit.

  • bluprint

    and insurance

  • bluprint

    blockchain technology is essentially a super-cheap and super-secure way to transfer value.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Cool – I’m glad you’re enjoying them 🙂

  • bluprint

    I assume GG is implying that bc tech can allow capital formation that is sufficient to fund mortgages but is also distributed and essentially robs banks of that business.

    Also, a lot of the “paper pushing” can become automated and go onto the blockchain and wipe out lots of administrative jobs in banks, titles companies (titles on blockchain make chain of title search easy and cheap). Eventually even a signature may be effected by a thumbprint on your phone, without ever meeting anyone.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    And that is HOW IT SHOULD BE.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It’s more of a distributed ledger, bluprint.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yes, and when they first started posting that in the crypto space it really threw me off as I used to report extensively on open market operations.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    LMAO – he sounds like me!! 😉

  • Tomcat

    Mole, just checking that the PayPal transaction was successful yesterday? It shows, sent, but I wonder if you need to do an automatic acceptance so you dont have to manually accept each time.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Marginally positive signal on the Zero today – we may not see a full resolution until Monday.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/644a54459ced8a27cbf4584dc11754fe46d53a27673bc8ef7fb601414f219e11.png

  • HD

    ding, filled S. SPX got the 30 point rally(ish) just like last Friday. This is when and where sellers have shown up this week.

  • Mary

    would you pay cash for a piece of property and not buy title insurance?

    if you were a lender, would you lend the lion’s share of the value for a piece of property and not require title insurance?

  • Julie

    Muhammad Ali and Joe Frazier at one time lived several houses away from each other in Philly. Frazier was champ at the time and Ali the number one contender. Their daughters went to school together. It was stated many times that the animosity between them was staged. Many times they were seen together in the neighborhood and their wives were often seen together too
    JULIE

  • HD

    peeled 1/2 off +5

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    you know what?, we were probably in the same building at one time.

    Great Traders of the 21st Century!!!
    😉

  • Darkthirty

    Pull a lumber chart………

  • Julie

    Yeah GG Love it ! Maybe two buildings at the same time Aloha and Ronler LOL !
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    the bubble is blowing, the pigmen have their own stops built into any downside via the BS fed bulk housing sales to PE, foreign PE and the rest of their Ilk to create pottersvilles. Rental kingdoms, turned into REIT’s to get more pie. Every market has been gamed, it took the great depression 2 to finally let the pigmen create enough havoc to bring us a real It’s a wonderful life” without xmas and the happy ending. US following UK into FIRE managed economy

  • Julie

    GG We gotta plan the INTC short ! Very strong resistance 47.21.and now above. Could fail here. Very strong support 45.59.Next resistances above 47.21 are 50.08 and 52.93 Now approaching overbought. Up volume not confirming this advance Pattern recognition RSI at 70 then a decline Let’s nail INTC GG !
    JULIE

  • Julie

    BAC Monday a bearish close below 32.50 and will re short
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    I have to believe points on a loan more so…

  • Julie

    EDIT miss type 31.50 not 32.50
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    off to lunch, I’ll think about that..

  • Tomcat

    Looks like you are looking for that 2PM dump:
    https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ES&p=h1

  • Julie

    UNP This is what I was looking for Weekly chart See the bounce
    off the weekly 34 ema and lower trend line to a lower high retracing approx. 61.8%. 132.14 is the Ichi Cloud conversion line (8). The range this week went below 132.14 and was looking for a weekly close (today Friday) below 132.14. I am breakeven on the short. Now a resistance is 134.67 and a support is 132.70. This could go either way as the previous 5 trading days a minor triangle is forming on the daily chart. If I am wrong will not be wrong long and any loss will be very https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b5a09144ec9c77b6033a10371f971127581d3536bcf2279f9eb020fba4769725.png minimal Shown UNP weekly chart JULIE

  • bluprint

    Yeah I get that. And my comment was coming from a thought that right now the best application of that ledger is transfer of value.

    I mentioned a chain-of-title application below (which also participates in transfer of value, but in the function of “documenting/securing transfer” rather than transfer of value itself), but that stuff is farther out imo with respect to actual adoption. Financial applications (direct transfers of financial instruments like cash or securities and the intermediaries who facilitate that) are on the chopping block first imo.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    way too emotional, but hey – we survived the death camp.

    Sooo, here is my thinking.

    Peak mid March. QQQ’s are trending higher, so no need to fight that trend, in the next several weeks.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/52ba21d2781a2a63e9fbbac8f4dfd003bb03a23c743509120b88f6d5a12b4e21.png

    that gap below awaits. *anything* below daily RSI 50? – it’s bear on.

  • bluprint

    But see… the reason BC is disruptive is not just b/c of it’s functionality as a ledger. Consider Mary’s question. The answer to it is that BC also serves as a very secure and inexpensive way to AUTHORIZE and EXECUTE that transfer. Just securing the history of transfers is important, but the built-in mechanism of building the ledger AND identification/authentication/authorization mechanisms together so closely that the attributes of those activities plus whatever underlying asset combine into one object which serves as money (easily traded and easily proven having been legitimately transfered) is what allows the tech to disintermediate other parties.

    Without that, it really is just a ledger.

  • Julie

    Yes GG Will add an upper trend line to your chart Do not know your envelopes. You will see that the trend line matches closely with your blue envelope Let’s watch the confluence GG https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/73ac9baa84ff813d240f238f28df4a40a319bef2107d71f89dbda0355c58f112.png JULIE

  • Julie

    SPY I see nothing bullish Tues – Weds – Thurs candles with topping tails and closing below it’s open. Today a gap up with complete crap volume. They are holding it up so everyone thinks it is OK and will spend money over the weekend. A ploy since the Wall St inception. If the market tanked today everyone would freak ! Come Monday ……
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Ok, still hanging long in 3x bio’s since the short exit, but note no change in the equites general range situation; this still remains a range trade thing with a gradually reducing local volatility trend since the 6th. That amounts to a squeezing of the shorts.

  • Julie

    SPX Remember The 5 ema is below the 21 ema ; 61.8% retracement and MACD below it’s centerline. I would not be too bullish and giddy. Any long should be watched like a hawk JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f33c5e7afbf5b4a78545f4d0b6e6915550f3a9b1ba1620bc72f41394c4b1b115.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    Hey Mark, I managed to survive my 2 MRI’s. One of the MRI’s was like being stuck inside of a tube headfirst for 25 minutes while listening to a very, very bad heavy metal band screeching at maximum volume inside of an echo chamber the entire time.

    Anyhow, so much for self diagnosis. What I thought was a groin pull ended up being Spinal Stenosis along with Arthritis in one of my hips. I’m waiting on another appointment to get a shot into one of my discs.

    On the trading front, I know you like the 3X’s and just in case you ever want to use them to trade Crude, OILU and OILD are 3X ETF’s that really, really move. I bought some OILU instead of 2X UCO yesterday and it along with some 3X ERX have brought my week back into line after a shitty start.

  • Julie

    USO A resistance 12.87. Two equal legs up from February is 13.30.Now C = 0.618 A at 12.78 Today’s high 12.82. This could be it for USO. Not a waver but do look for impulses and corrective patterns. Let’s see what happens Monday. I have now two positions (1) short USO and down slightly on a probe (2) UNP short (small position and will add below 132.30) and break even. Will retain both over weekend
    JULIE

  • Julie

    EDIT February 14 not just February
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Great news you got the true visualized data! At least you now know that all-out lifestyle reattention is required to address inflammation…hopefully with no drugs. Yeah, living inside a powerful magnet…what a head trip I know it can be 🙂
    Stenosis often is an inflammatory result. Gotta think root causes-and-effects.

    Thanks for the crude/egny heads up. I only do the energy trade very rarely.

  • Julie

    BL Are those cortisone shots.? If so I believe that three is max. Hope you are getting better
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    I thought I heard Van Halen covering “you really got me” one time while in the chamber and Led Zeppelin another time…

    good on you for finding out… me next

  • Mark Shinnick

    That 3x bio long hit first objective, out….flat. may reenter for last objective.

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks Julie. Yes I believe it’s some kind of cortisone shot. Hey maybe a shot of WD 40 might work. 🙂 The thing is that I’m also going to need some physical therapy and I can’t begin that until I get the shot. I don’t do pain well.

  • BobbyLow

    Van Halen and Led Zeppelin would have had a calming effect compared to that noise. LOL

    But as you said, it’s good to find out what the problem is.

    Good luck in getting your situation fixed.

  • Julie

    Girls endure pain better than boys. Nothing like child birth ! Strengthening a region is definitely the solution i.e. physical therapy
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    if IBB gets thru 112 it could try to find highs again…

  • Mark Shinnick

    With you on that.

  • Julie

    TLT Here we go gonna buy some at the close above 117.86 What I have posted (charts) and waiting for JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/52f97e1652854c8d919dea6c4eefbd2636b2ac61f13dde6a70920b743d7130c4.png

  • BobbyLow

    I think your right. I can’t even imagine giving birth!

    I usually can suck it up pretty good as in “rub some dirt on it and it’ll be OK”. But when I have to hold onto the bed and grab a cane for my first few steps every morning as sharp stabbing dagger types of shooting pain happens, rubbing dirt on it doesn’t seem to help. 🙂

  • Mark Shinnick

    Flipped to short for time being…

  • ridingwaves

    there would be no human race if men were the responsible party in birthing

  • BobbyLow

    That’s for sure. We’ed also have to have cesarean deliveries. It would be unimaginable excruitiating pain for guys to give birth naturally. But if we really wanted to man up we could always have a cesarean delivery without any anaestetic. LOL

  • Julie

    Covering UNP short closing above 134.67 resistance for break even. Bought some TLT for a linger term trade. Will retain USO short probe over weekend. Not only is USO 12.87 a resistance but also the 76% retracement Everyone Have A Great Weekend
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Stood aside.

  • Julie

    EDIT miss type 12.87 not 12.78 As everyone has probably guessed I am dyslexic with numbers. I must triple check numbers. I am fine with letters
    JULIE

  • Julie
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Have a great weekend everyone!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey Tomcat – was that you? Thanks – much appreciated!

  • Tomcat

    Check again with this transaction number: 04H53717R5260670R

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Corrected – I received it. Thanks again!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Oh – that doesn’t match with the number I got. Does your first name start with R?

  • Tomcat

    Yes!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Then yes I got it. I will be eating meat this weekend!

  • Tomcat

    HAHA

  • Julie

    Thanks Mole You Too ! Chief will be sending a donation Pay Pal Chief look for it
    JULIE

  • Julie

    Now it is https://www.evilspeculator.com for the Pay Pal ?
    JULIE

  • Julie
  • Julie

    Chief Donation sent VIA Pay Pal Also a note wirh donation Thanks for everything that you do Chief !
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Just saw it – thank you sweetie – most generous 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yes, I actually tried to add a PP button but the instructions are conflicting. Have reached out to support but I guess you know how to do it manually now.

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    Be kind to yourself, old friend!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III