So the good news is that I arrived here in beautiful Sète (France) safe and sound yesterday afternoon after landing in Marseille a few hours earlier. The flight was short and uneventful which is exactly the way I like it. The bad news that I spent my first morning here being poked and prodded by a French dentist. Yaaayyy!!
So what happened? When driving through the Camargue last evening I started to feel a slight pain on the right side of my lower jaw, which was a new occurrence unrelated to the prior treatment I had received in Valencia. When checking online later that night I learned that this happens quite often to people with latent or early dental issues.
Having been through dental hell and back over the past two months I didn’t want to leave anything up to chance as this couldn’t have come at a worse time. Plus Mrs. Evil was seriously considering to take me out of my misery for good and upgrade to an attractive European sports model here in France while she has the chance.
My wife’s family however proved extremely helpful in scheduling an emergency appointment with one of the best dentists in town and off I went. To make long story short: it turns out another crown of mine has gone bad and we’re probably talking root canal once I’m back in Spain.
In the interim she managed to take out some of the caries and seal the damn thing up as well as she could. I loaded up on anti-inflammatory drugs just in case since the place we’re heading to later this week is located in the middle of nowhere.
Okay enough of my dental trials and tribulations – let’s talk markets. It just so happens that Europe has not yet switched to daylight saving time last Sunday and until the 31st the market opens one hour earlier here. That and my dental adventures didn’t leave me much time for market analysis this morning.
However what I’m seeing is pretty straight forward. The current run higher looks very promising but I would not chase it until you are already long since the lows. The odds of a retest of the lows are pretty strong and the resulting spike low would have much higher odds of resolving favorably.
The recent drop in the EUR/USD could have not come at a better time, given that I’m wining and dining my wife’s family, which incidentally isn’t shy of taking full advantage. As in equities we are seeing a promising looking reversal – however the context here is quite different.
Continued weakness over the past few weeks suggests that this could turn into a dead cat bounce followed by a more pronounced sell off. Which makes this a great short entry opportunity UNTIL about 1.127. A breach > that reduces the odds of the bearish scenario considerably and may get us back into ye ole’ choppee zone.
Here’s a bit more long term context. As you can see my monthly resistance now support line is being traversed lower and a breach of 1.10 is probably needed to unleash the fireworks. And until that happens the chop is likely to continue.
The Dollar of course is benefitting and after some profit taking the question now is whether or not we are talking correction or continuation. Unfortunately after such a quick run higher it’s not unusual to see a low volatility chop for a while.
Add to that a lack of context below and the best long entry I see here is a trend trading style ‘buy high’ after a breach of 97.7, which hopefully would launch a short squeeze.
Once again the LT picture which IMO is pretty self explanatory. Obviously the 98 mark is the bullish inflection point, which most likely would spearhead a medium term trending phase in the Dollar.
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What do you know – the novocaine is finally starting to wear off. Time to grab lunch followed by some Pastis!!