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Friday Family Fun
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Friday Family Fun

by The MoleJune 8, 2012

Seems like anyone with an opinion is being taken to the cleaners this week. Personally I remain pretty ambivalent at this stage – at least until we either breach SPX 1330 or make new lows. Everything in between is prime woodshed territory – so try to look busy and keep a low profile.

Of course that doesn’t mean that the Mole wasn’t able to dig up any setups. Rest assured that if there’s a tasty Perigord truffle buried somewhere in the tape the Mole’s finely tuned snout will dig it up. Here’s ole’ bucky – sitting all innocently back at its NLSL. Well, we can’t have it get away with that, can we? I think we’ve got an excellent long here with only a few ticks of risk. And yes, if stopped out this bugger turns into a short position in a jiffy – may actually be the better trade.

As usual there’s more where that came from – please step into my lair:

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More charts and cynical commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
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USD/CHF – similar situation here – easy long trade with little risk. Again, flip that sucker once it hits your stop below that NLSL – there’s nothing but air below.

Next runner up – NZD/USD – already retested its NLSL and is now at the only remaining resistance, it’s 25-day SMA. Great long here and you can either put your stop below the NLSL or right below that 25-day SMA.

EUR/USD – actually we are already back above that NLSL – nice long here as a failure to breach constitutes a successful retest of the NLBL. I would not want to go short here if it drops back below.

Sugar – almost identical setup as on the EUR/USD – same strategy/execution. Again, I would not want to be short.

Finally crude – I am waiting for a push above that NLSL. May not happen today but if it does (either today or in the next few sessions) then you know what to do. No short position for me here – support looming too near below.

Enjoy your weekend!

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Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Joe_Jones

    Thanks Mole. Enjoy the tapas.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Actually I’m going to get some real food. Tapas is for tourists.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    breach 1330.
    peak around the Evil 13th.
    roll it over to month end.

    [SPX]
    http://s7.postimage.org/4uwgcl6nt/temp1.png

  • Skynard

    Dollar tanking, why so many bears around here?

  • amokta

    You talkin to me 🙂
    http://www.gesgkft.hu/images/galloway_1_x.jpg

    Im long stock from yesterday, but only at b/e still

  • Skynard

    DXY support @ 82.4, that’s where my /ES comes off.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    SPY supports to watch, if sell off occurs last hour.

    http://s13.postimage.org/dyyjobxbb/temp2.png 

  • AMCabrera

    because it has to be that way.

  • AMCabrera

    Im going try a long EUR/USD just to see if that thing that happened one Friday happens this Friday. 10 pip stop loss

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    SPY 5m

    scha-wing.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    dam.  back to square one.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Market close < 15min

    133.000  *finally*

  • amokta

    Anyone planning to go short over weekend?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Skynard

    Closed /ES, You all have a good weekend.

  • amokta

    Thanks. Anything can happen over weekend.
    Spain demanding bailout?

  • StrikeFirst

    Bought some July puts yesterday… just in case.

    Still holding, but I am somewhat bothered by today’s price action.

  • amokta

    Unless there is drop over w/e i will close out my small short position on monday

  • supervilin

    nicely done Sky! its amazing how ES kept rocketing higher on a flat zero last 3 hours.. also blue signals did not pan out today. kept wanting to short but luckily didn’t 🙂

  • Fibz

    Here’s a good article headline: “Obama warns Greece not to leave Euro zone.” LOL

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    heh. throw a dart.  they match the news to the tape.

  • Fibz
  • newbfxtrader

    Looks bullish for the Aussie.

  • newbfxtrader

    Oh come on dont you want to hold longs with me into the weekend? Chicken….

  • newbfxtrader
  • Fibz

    indeed

  • newbfxtrader

    JBTFD. Have you seen EWP lately?

  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/627f157c-3819-4b77-8c8e-9991d8536c1e/2012-06-08_2104.png

    Ok pretty strange. It may not seem like a big deal during a trading week given the size of the move but the EUR/USD has moved again. It should not be moving at all. When I see movements on saturday or very early sunday it normally implies pretty serious movement the opening Monday. But on a Friday night it should be frozen and it has not.

  • Skynard

    Yes, Current positions long /SI, /CL, AAPL and AUDJPY. That was just intraday /ES:)

  • roscoe_casita

    .

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/X3UHQ24EPYQVH62MCJVJM4KIJI peter

     Looking through my stuff this morning and found an ID NR4 on ZW.  Both July and Sep feature the signal.  Is there a reason I shouldn’t take it either way? 

  • MonkeyBusiness

    There more resistance to the upside since the 25 and 100 DAY SMAs are sitting right near Friday’s Highs. 

  • captainboom

    AMC, have you noticed any correlation of EUR/USD to equities?  I’m wondering how this may affect them.  I don’t trade currencies, yet…

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    cleaning out my charts.
    amazing what can happen in 3 months.

    AUD/JPY
    http://img716.imageshack.us/img716/4316/grimtb.png 

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/X3UHQ24EPYQVH62MCJVJM4KIJI peter

     Ah good call.  Also ID NR4 on KC.  That looks less clogged to the upside.

  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/51d35cea-f1d7-4670-b465-3aedbe67dfa5/2012-06-09_1214.png
    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/10563443-56ea-48f4-9d2e-ad3336d3743b/2012-06-09_1215.png
    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/d5f66c15-7a91-4c0c-87b2-c8eaa0323e6c/2012-06-09_1229.png
    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/9d6c4344-d181-4f59-850f-ed13fe37ae9c/2012-06-09_1228.png
    yes I have noticed it. However, it does not effect me whether I go long or short currency pairs. Here are two weekly charts. You can see that this “correlation” does fit all the time and could cause you to trade the wrong way and affect your trading habits. Rather the causation of this correlation IMO is simply the Feds extraordinary balance sheet expansion and a mild side effect of course is cheap money and gonorrhea going into “risker” assets. I think I was preaching this when I was shorting the AUD/USD when the SPX was near its high. I did not care where the SPX was going. IMO for that moment the USD was a win win. If US economy was doing well then SPX would rise and dollar would too and if not by the time the Fed acted, which would have to be massive injection, I could benefit from the panic into USD. Simply I give very little weight to that correlation when I decided to go long or short currencies. 

  • dibtn

    Someone posted an interest in SONY awhile back…not sure who it was. I have an interest in SONY and have gone long. Hourly chart shows typical EW wave formation of a first and second wave after a major low at $12.63 on June 1 (textbook). MACD daily has turned up as of 5/18, Wilder’s RSI also showing div (non-confirm)…looks like a trend change is about to go from down to up. FWIW

  • AMCabrera

    well the events unfolding explain those slight movements. I would be pensive to think this is a good thing for the euro. However, I will be going long still to see that 1.2700 checkpoint where then I will look for 1.2900 as the situation unfolding is fitting quite nicely for my hammer to the head short at 1.2900

  • Fibz

    I don’t think the “bailout” is good either. This situation is like an ambulance with a smoking engine and a flat tire trying to get a comatose patient to a hospital 100 miles away. They just stopped to put some air in the tire (Spain). I’m long stocks, but might look to get out or short soon.

  • StrikeFirst

    Great.

    Markets are gonna rally 500 points.

    And I’m short. 🙁

  • Joe_Jones

    If SPX 1330 is breached, flip the trade. There is quite a bit of room to go before the next volume hole is reached.

  • newbfxtrader

    Please dont fight the tape. Dont take trades against Mole! Take some of the setups posted. Take the FX trades with us. Join the discussion.

  • newbfxtrader

    Aud/usd, aud/jpy, nzd/usd, nzd/jpy, possibly bottoming usd/cad, usd/zar, usd/mxn etc possibly topping. Get on the train!

  • StrikeFirst

    I’m not worried about it.

    I’ve got July puts, because I see this as a correction in a downtrend.

    But thanks for trying to help!

  • newbfxtrader

    Definitely possible. If you bring up $NYSI say a 2yr chart or so you can see we have first thrust down but no divergence in place. Certainly room for spx to put in a lower low with higher $NYSI. Compare with selloff last year to see what I mean. In the meantime buy some calls to hedge? At least buy calls if we break 1330ish.

  • Joe_Jones

    OPEX and Quadruple witching this week. Don’t be a hero, and don’t be on the other side of Mole’s trade. Just my 2c.

  • StrikeFirst

    No, I hear you.

    If we get past 1335 or so(the 100 ema), I’ll definitely be getting bullish.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/strikefirst/folders/Default/media/450135d8-2b26-477b-be3c-7402efb65ea1 

  • StrikeFirst

    “Dont take trades against Mole!”
    ——————————

    Well, I don’t know about that.

    I respect “Mole” a lot; that’s the reason I’m here. 

    Also, he has a killer sense of humor.

    But I don’t believe you can ever be successful as a trader following someone else.

    And that’s why I do my own thing, right or wrong.

    Maybe I’m just stubborn! 😉

  • AMCabrera

    Very important I’ve been triggered at 1.2530. I’m seriously worried by the movements over the weekend.

  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/ebd19656-43d0-447d-842c-774412ebe41e/2012-06-10_0819.png
    I normally have my charts set to hide weekend data because it can screw up with your charting. Anyhow just a bit of info if anyone is using oanda. But here is the movements my goodness this is going to be volatile.

  • Schwerepunkt

    $125 billion Tapas on the menu. Que bueno!

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/X3UHQ24EPYQVH62MCJVJM4KIJI peter

    Triggered meaning you bought?

  • AMCabrera

    Yes sir.

  • DarthTrader

     That would be me on the Sony (SNE) play . . .  a long term buy and hold position for me.  Using SNE as a leveraged play on a long term weakening Yen.

  • dibtn

    Darth….I’m in your camp, but for a different reason. The attached chart shows the EW “typical” wave structure and causes me to want in (own). So I’m long and anticipating a rather exciting run up to $21 (yeh, I know, pipe dream) however, the numbers don’t lie and I expect Sony to perform. Many don’t think EW is reliable….I have found it to be extremely so, and I go back to 1978 as an investor/trader. I’m anticipating a head & shoulders bottom (reversing formation) and an upside target of $18 to $21. (sincerity, is always subject to proof)

  • dibtn

    That was some trade the mole suggested via natgas…..I now wish I had a fut account so I could have taken the trade. 
    Going to ask for some help from you…..I have read the site info and scouted around for additional com/fut/cur info and would ask your opinion on the best course of action for me. Pro bono work for sure, and if there is time in your off hours please advise…if you are able. I have a long term history of equity trading (1978 to now) and have learned the hard way and thru reading what to do and not to do in equities. I have a significant interest in trades such as the natgas one mole suggested, and seek your guidance in getting started. Which of the sub options is the best way to go and also which organization do you suggest for clearing trades. I’d like to begin with about $10k and see where I can go from there. I have accessed the Zecco practice account and have command of that site. I ask here(away from the current thread) so as to not take up space….also I did ask mole a similar question like this, in a prev thread and rec’d no answer. If I do not get a response (it takes time away from other things)…I’ll understand and not be offended.

  • dibtn

    First price target realized today……..$14.46

  • dibtn

    Sold at $14.46 and now buy again at $13.75 for next target of $14.81

  • dibtn

    Preparing right now for a big drop to 12,000 on the Dow.