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Friday Morning Briefing
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Friday Morning Briefing

by The MoleJanuary 9, 2015

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

2015-01-09_spoos_briefing

Equities were trending sideways but just got a nice boost from positive employment numbers. So as for now it looks like the 25-hour SMA may just hold here and drive us higher. If you are short term long here then put your stop below 2050 and cross your fingers 😉

2015-01-09_gold_briefing

Gold also on a sideways trajectory right now as it keeps bumping against its 100-day SMA. The 100-hour however is leading higher apparently and I’m long here now with a stop below the SMA at ~ 1207.

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You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • BobbyLow

    Mornin Folks,

    The first week of the year is almost under our belt and I must say it has been a good week. I still have no idea of what caused the big rise in equities yesterday other than more buyers than sellers. 🙂

    My AUD/USD has already hit my Target and that’s good. At the present time, I’m still short Crude via SCO and Long Energy Producers through DIG.

    I don’t expect a lot of action today but who knows. . .

  • captainboom

    Mole, the Zero is stuck.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    again? damn, I have to relaunch it every morning now… those TOS updates are a pain

  • BobbyLow

    Famous last words: “I don’t expect a lot of action today. . .”

  • Quinn Bolon

    hi, do you ever look at the nikkei? thank you very much

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    automate it.

    Ich weiß, dass Sie es tun können , smart Deutsch

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Son of a Taco Bell b!tch.
    You really have to be propositioned to catch these fast/quick moves.

    http://s12.postimg.org/m1rq7x12l/SPX_Ese.png

  • Skynard

    Hehehe, indeed:)

  • BobbyLow

    Moves like yesterday and today are why trying to find “reasons” for price action are a waste of time and energy.

    I mean what has changed from yesterday to today?

  • ridingwaves

    Down move seems like a bear air release…JNK, VIX not flying the same course…..next week begins earnings season when bulls parade and bears are laid…..to rest

  • Darkthirty

    OPEX next week…………

  • BobbyLow

    Out of DIG -.81R

  • Skynard

    Looks like a retest of the lows.

  • BobbyLow

    Yep. /CL making new lows with almost every print at the moment. SCO is saving my ass today.

  • Skynard

    Stopped out for 1R

  • Skynard

    /ES on fire:)

  • BattleZone

    Dear Zero Indicator,

    You’re so hot. And whenever we argue you’re always right.
    Will you marry me?

    BZ

  • Dyellowflash

    TP-ed yesterday’s short collected at the last two tops. Going off outdoors for the day so got to close positions early. I wonder if it will trend another 100 pts or so downward?

  • Skynard

    Long again at hourly lower 100 BB:)

  • Skynard

    Chart

  • strider

    I find it more entertaining than daytime television.

  • bullethead

    CL is the gift that keeps on giving…http://screencast.com/t/GkkipIgAGx.

  • Sean

    I think, in the simplest terms, what changed is that price reached a point where there are more people willing to sell at the market then buy (or more volume at least)… and if this price was where that was already going to happen, then nothing needed to change to get this price action, the price action is simply uncovering preferences that were already there… of course, the market is also a complex adaptive system, so price action then in turn influences future/current preferences (along with thousands of other things)… definitely fun to think about though…

  • BobbyLow

    Cool. My position is a longer term swing. So I remain short crude for now. However, I’m not ready to swing into DUG because this type of volatility from one day to the next for a swing sucks. Especially on a Friday.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    looks like my (paper) trade stopped out too.
    🙂
    [DIG]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DIG&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p91093791567

  • BobbyLow

    Agreed.

    The only thing I would add is that I would replace the word people with (computerized if/then decisions). The vast majority of trades are program driven. But the programs are written by people on behalf of institutions so there is a “people” relationship there. 🙂

  • BobbyLow

    Yeah, this trade was just barely a buy and there was not enough room in it to stay in. Of course there is always hopium but hopium doesn’t pay very well.

    Wide volatility sucks for this type of swing and that’s why I find it better to get into a move after it has established itself.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    next thousand trades.
    follow the rules, analyze the rules, tweak if necessary.

  • Sean

    I could be wrong, but the sense I get is that a big portion of the computerized buying/selling in stocks is just an efficient implementation of a customer/institution preference (I’m not counting HFT’s since they have a net 0 position on their trades as “liquidity providers” or whatever words they are using these days to describe skimming)… the computer doesn’t decide to sell, it decides how to sell (like when we see those nice smooth up/down volume lines, that is run by bots, but it is the institutions that decided they needed 80M less SPY shares on their books, or whatever)… so when you look at the market it may look like computers are running things, but really they are just dumb execution tools.. I think computers (now I’m talking automated trading computers) have a much bigger role in the futures market, which does have some feedback into stocks, but I’m not sure it is material… and I think there is a lot of automated trading in FX, but I think CB’s and MNC’s outweigh those (which is why FX is easier to trade, as long as you are following the elephants instead of fighting them)… and there are lots of other factors too, like inventory management… but I am really just a simpleton looking at the surface of that world, so take my uninformed opinions with a grain of salt…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    yeah, dynamics upon dynamics.
    look at a galaxy, billions of stars influencing each other,
    yet the same spiral arms appear over and over again.

  • Billabong

    LOL … (belly laugh)

  • Billabong

    I don’t have a sell confirmation or R SL … volatility doesn’t help.

    EDIT: Still watching for FBS on both UCO (CL) and DIG (DJUSEN).

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    S&P ’20’ – 2048
    can’t get more on the fence than that, and on a Friday.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p28964907271

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You crack me up…

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Actually that’s not a bad idea – I think I could use some type of script. Must be some tool on Windooz to do that.

  • BattleZone

    I should have said “disagree”… we don’t really argue… 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Trading with the Zero today… (and yesterday)…

    As you can see it’s not *always* spot on but it does keep you out of trouble when it counts the most IMO.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    See above…

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You guys are easily entertained…

  • BattleZone

    I really appreciate when the Zero confirms momentum by not diverging. Has been great recently.

  • BobbyLow

    I actually had a little more to lose in R in this position. The problem is that my decisions on this sector are made on 90 Minute Charts and at close of the 9:30 Candle, my chart said to get out. This is a case of where I could have stayed in because I wasn’t “officially” stopped out yet. In the past, this is exactly what I would have done. However, I found that the vast majority of time that I stayed in after a negative technical sign that whatever “R” I had left would be lost and it wasn’t worth the “gamble”.

    Of course it has come back a little since I got out. However, it hasn’t come back enough for me to get back in. And even if it does, I don’t want to do anything until Monday at the earliest now.

    I’ve had a decent week and shit has a way of compounding so I’ll just leave well enough alone. 🙂

  • BobbyLow

    BZ, you need to have an Avatar. 🙂

  • strider

    Crazy Ivan has had a good week. Your AUD CAD and EUR JPY trades are going well. Banking coin is the best entertainment.

  • Sean

    I would be careful not to relate financial markets to physics in any way… markets are social systems based on preferences, and unlike physics, there are no constraints on how far or how fast preferences can change..

  • BobbyLow

    Out SCO +2R

  • Darkthirty

    You need to check the tape and tell me 10 pts a minute YM is social???

  • Sean

    I’m not sure what that means or what you are trying to imply…

  • Darkthirty

    I’d have to agree with G Gerb, the reality is gone, it’s all in your perception………..

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

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    ¨°º¤ S H A K E N ¤º°¨

    ¸„ø¤º° B A K E !“°º¤ø„¸

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