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Furious And Furious Friday
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Furious And Furious Friday

by The MoleJune 26, 2015

We got movement people! And obviously I’m not talking about equities where we’re still spasmodically bouncing around in the same six month trading range. Booooring! Unless of course you are the evil lair’s official Swing Slayer and that coveted title is already taken by Skynard. You will have to defeat him first and then send me one of his digits to assume his position. It also helps if you either have at least one dragon or an army of White Walkers at your disposal. Either that or just send me money – I am surprisingly corruptible.

2015-06-26_spoos_briefing

Okay, let’s get the tedious charts out of the way first. Equities – I’m risking a tiny long position if it touches 2095 with a stop below 2090.

2015-06-26_ZL_update

Alright so I was talking about movement, remember? Plenty of that across the softs in recent days (i.e. corn, soy, wheat, etc.) – you guys really need to get yourself some futures accounts. Speaking of which, do you still remember the soybean diet I pimped the other day? Soybean oil has advanced beautifully and I’m now putting my stop below a recent spike low. I think that one has potential to go all the way.

2015-06-26_soybeans_update

On the actual soybeans contract it’s time to head for the hills after a beautiful stab higher. Sure it could push even further but my target has been hit and that’s that. I’ll keep an eye on it however for new entry opportunities – preferably after a little shake out.

2015-06-26_GBPCAD_briefing_leeches

GBPCAD – fascinating formation on the daily – rarely seen anything like that on the forex side. I’m happy to play the swings here just for fun but I reckon that it’ll be ready to pick a direction early next week. Be careful usually you’ll see a fake breach first – if you are really good at this game then you can try to play the fake breach with an inverse position. Paging Skynard the Swing Slayer!

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You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. If there’s anything interesting to share (and if I see you guys actually showing up – I know it’s summer… yuk) then I’ll see you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Bill

    “…if you are really good at this game then…” Ha, I stopped reading there and moved to the next one. Locked and loaded for today except for that swing trade.

  • Skynard

    Ya, allot of movement today. potential for that long revesal for sure.

  • Skynard

    That hourly div to play out today, get FN long

  • ridingwaves

    low volume ppt pump here…

  • ridingwaves

    ridingwaves Skynard 21 days ago

    Shanghai index is first place I will look to short…seems toppy now…….yahoooo

  • SirDagonet

    Interesting article about HFT activity these days (if true):

    Bloomberg reported that a study on HFT behavior based on Norway`s SWF trading activity and found that, in aggregate, HFT algos were providing liquidity to orders and not front-running them:

    High-frequency traders are more prone to first go against the flow of orders by large institutions, according to a study based on trade data provided by investors including Norway’s $890 billion wealth fund.

    The study found that HFTs “lean against the order” in the first hour and then turn around and go with the flow in the case of multi-hour trades, the study by University of Amsterdam professors Vincent van Kervel and Albert J. Menkveld released Thursday showed. Trading costs are 39 percent lower when the HFTs lean against the order, “by one standard deviation,” and 64 percent higher when they go with it, they said.

    “The results are inconsistent with ‘front-running’ in the sense of HFTs who detect a large, long-lasting order right from the start and trade along with it,” van Kervel and Menkveld said. “We speculate that HFTs eventually feel the imbalance caused by it. In response, they trade out of their position as they understand that leaning against such order as a market maker requires a long-lasting inventory position. HFTs prefer to be flat at the end of the day.”

    According to Rosenblatt, in 2009 the entire HFT industry made around $5 billion trading stocks. Last year it made closer to $1 billion. The “profits have collapsed,” says Mark Gorton, the founder of Tower Research Capital, one of the largest and fastest high-frequency trading firms. “The easy money’s gone.”

  • Skynard

    Here comes crude

  • Skynard

    TNX is telling me to short this FN rally. Waiting for EOM

  • Billabong

    Anyone look at the /SI spike low (15.48) at 8 am GMT (Europe +1 / EST -5) when UK /Germany opened … 3% move with recovery … ouch!

  • mugabe

    you nailed that .. I was in it long and took a goodish hit – about 1.6% of account size

  • newbfxtrader

    Its down 19% already ….

  • Billabong

    Still hanging short … looking at BB @ $58 … will probably reduce position size at $58 or OS MOMO indicators.

  • Billabong

    Bonds have been selling off since 20 Apr … When does this become a trend? Capturing the meat of a trend is tough. I know myself and a few others here missed the meat of the short oil trade between Jun and Dec last year.

  • Bill

    IMHO looks like it is about to take a stab downwards.

  • mugabe

    you’ll only do it with a very wide stop .. not everyone’s cup of tea

  • Billabong

    The traders dilemma, do I wait for a DCB and then short or do I short on lower lows after 19% … At what point do the Chinese panic and try to salvage what’s left of their accounts. To them it’s personal not business … For us it’s business not personal.

  • newbfxtrader

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/bFu1prTL/

    when the monthly makes a higher low..

  • Billabong

    And then it becomes a CM issue and how much you put at risk with a wide stop.

  • Skynard

    Very similar to fake breakouts are fake selloffs. Stops run and sucking in more shorts. Time to squeeze. W4 completion, now a final move up. MM’s love this shit.

  • newbfxtrader

    bad entry now, Wait for it. https://www.tradingview.com/x/oZ5LDlnF/

  • Skynard

    This is telling me that interest rates “WILL” be going up and the Fed has no choice.

  • newbfxtrader

    The Fed rates follow the market. They cant control it really.

  • Skynard

    TNX drive them Bro

  • newbfxtrader

    Pretty sure its bad timing now but show me a chart and lets see.

  • newbfxtrader

    Yeah. pretty much. Market sets the rates. Fed folllows.

  • Skynard

    That’s what the market’s job is:) Green by close today

  • ridingwaves

    Bond vigilantes are finally waking up, they were smart to sleep while the fed gamed the bid/ask/float along with indirect and direct buyer support….the housing fed put would be wiped out with a 2pt 10 yr move…or normal 6% rate…

  • Billabong

    It depends on which market we’re talking about … Shanghai, HK, top 100 / 50 / 25, etc. Bloomberg has a chart on each market, but TOS doesn’t have any (unless I’m looking in the wrong place or for the wrong symbol).

  • ridingwaves

    I wouldn’t get close to it now…but their were subtle signs that made me look at it real close as Skynard was looking at the NIK short, Chinese retail margin highest ever headlines, mainland letting foreign trade desks in the market as of Feb. this year….they had tons of fresh lemmings to expose….

  • Billabong

    Not only the Fed … UST can’t handle the budget deficit increase … 2 point increase could increase UST annual interest payments by as much as 365B within a few years depending on the rollover schedule.

  • Billabong

    Do you think they will try to suck in the last of the buy-on-the-dip investors in an epic DCB? Not looking for a prediction.

  • Billabong

    LOL … look at that spike up. You go Skynard!

  • Skynard

    Never stand around with dick in hand:)

  • ridingwaves

    the daily has a nice h&s setting up with neckline where were at now..a nice move back to 4600 for the RS would make it interesting place to try S again…

  • Skynard

    ZL full circle jerk. Time for MM’s to drive this fucker. My 401K is hungry for coin:)

  • ridingwaves

    good to be lucky….at least that’s what my dog says…

  • HeadNShoulder

    derp, cutting small loss on SPY call. It breaks one of my silly signal, not liking this action at all. =( (Now that I have closed my positions the market can rally from here…………*happens everytime*)

  • newbfxtrader

    Not a bullish zero…

  • Skynard

    Setting up to be, sucking in shorts right now. Retested the low.

  • Skynard

    Trend chang day, ran up to kill the shorts then down for the longs. Up and away

  • HeadNShoulder

    Breached critical point@2089, and a weird bounce at 2088 with such vol, looks suspicious…think we might revisit this low again sometime in the noon. Not doing anything but watching here.

  • Skynard

    Count is full now

  • HeadNShoulder

    I still think we will revisit 2088 and then form a double distribution day with lowest point around 2085.25. A zone between 2085.25 to 2089 for noon trading.

  • HeadNShoulder

    Done, trend change anytime.

  • almez

    the speed with which greece rejected the proposal makes me think it’s still posturing. I think a deal is done on saturday

  • HeadNShoulder

    And now 2101 is critical again lol.

  • Skynard

    That circle jerk was a w4 and 5th down. Similar count in crude. Rally time rats:)

  • HeadNShoulder

    I can imagine TK’s green face right now. Of course the rally needs to be sustainable.

  • ridingwaves

    if bonds turn here you are gold…I think bonds might give clue on tomorrow also, bond guys are usually ahead of the equity guys…

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    So it’s been 29 weeks now since we have seen more than 3 weeks in the same direction. We finished the last three down weeks 15 weeks ago. Tough tape!!!

  • BobbyLow

    I’ve said this before but 2015 still reminds me of 2004 when the VIX reached single digits for the first time. Prices were in cha, cha, cha mode all fucking year.

  • ridingwaves

    feels more like 07 to me…

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I recall – 2005 was also a PITA.

  • mugabe

    so far, and I’ve looked at the charts, it’s most similar to 2006 imo

  • BobbyLow

    I think we might remember differently according to what our trading styles were and what we were trading during these previous time periods. 2004 sucked for me but 2005, 06, and 07 were decent while I kicked ass in 2008. But don’t even ask about about my Perma Bear Years of 2009, 2010, 2011 etc,. They all sucked big time. 🙂

  • ridingwaves

    07 was pre-election year and shenanigans were starting to get more interesting that summer, I think we had a high in July before a move down into 08 and then a new high before the waterfall of 09

  • BobbyLow

    BTW, one of the reasons that 2004 sticks out so much is that prior to 2004, there was one contrarian rule of thumb regarding the “Fear Gage” aka the VIX and that was to buy above 30 and sell below 20. The VIX broke into single digits that year because volatilty was so low. This was also before the Fed came along and removed the need for the VIX because QE perception removed so much risk from the equity market. 🙂

  • ridingwaves

    I think QE was aimed partially at VIX, that hot money could let puts and calls expire without recourse….

  • ridingwaves

    bonds are saying this move up is temporary today…

  • Billabong

    Judging by the replies, it’s reminds all participants of the market years 2004 – 2011 … pick anyone and it has some similarity to the current market 🙂

  • ridingwaves

    thinking a sell off into close would be more likely if Greece agreement in the cards…lure in some shorts

  • wandering196

    GBPCAD idea was great!!!

  • Bill

    I’m closing out everything but my Thor position. Scraped out some profit with the CADJPY setup.

  • almez

    wow, zero was so confusing today

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    2007/2008 was great – 2009 was tough – I started to see the light in 2010 and it’s been rock & roll since 2011.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Well it was pointing down a lot, so that EOD jump is a bit strange…

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Hehe – you played the swing – good for you 🙂

  • mugabe

    greece situation *is* interesting now

  • HeadNShoulder

    Am expecting a bottle of mineral water for US$20 in near future @Greece.

  • mugabe

    euro and euro markets will be interesting on monday

  • Billabong

    Can anyone shed light on FX in only close mode until Monday, GMT +3. Are “they” preparing for a possible meltdown in the Euro?

  • HeadNShoulder

    “close only” mode (you will not be able to open any new positions or place pending orders). Unlike the swiss financial “tsunami”, traders have plenty of time to position themselves ahead of this. (my arse, lets see what the spread will be…..geez)

  • mugabe

    agree – not comparable

  • Billabong

    Will it be weakening or strengthening? The Swiss issue was straight forward with a de-pegging from the Euro. And the proposed Greek national referendum won’t happen for at least 8 days.

  • newbfxtrader

    Please remain calm as money is extracted from your accounts and given to Greek banks…

  • vladv

    the referendum appears irrelevant as the ECB is signaling that it is pulling the plug.