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Futures For Freaks
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Futures For Freaks

by The MoleOctober 27, 2011

Remember my musings on copper over the weekend? Well, it finally decided to join us over on the dark side of the force. Welcome, I have a special death star corner office reserved for you – and enjoy your gratuitous light saber!

I told you guys to watch out when it was tickling its NLBL at 3.4205. Yesterday was confirmation and today we were handed the rewards. My first target area is 3.9 and I will most likely take most of my positions off before the expected shake out at 4.0.

30-year treasury futures played a fast one by pushing through the NLBL and then reversing back through it the very next day. For future reference – in my book that is a bonafide NL Fail and that is when you get out of your trade or take an inverse position with a stop right above that NLBL (do the exact opposite for a NLSL Fail). That inverse trade is valid until the NLBL expires.

Next target area is the 133 mark but I wouldn’t be surprised if we drop a lot lower in the coming weeks/months.

Alright, I got one really juicy setup for the subs:
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Charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
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Soybean futures – the other vegetarian meat! Recall that I was not too excited about the downside potential (in terms of trading it – not in terms of the odds) and fortunately it did the right thing and pushed toward that NLBL. Now, a close above would want me take out a long position with expectations of a push toward 1300. Of course it’s possible that it’ll play a /ZB on us (i.e. instant reversal – see above) and you now know what to do in that scenario.
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Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I think I earned my keep today. Will break with evil lair restrictions for once and allow myself a bathroom break before the market closes 😉

  • Anonymous

    mole, I’ve also got a NLBL on the 60 that was closed above and tested in the last 3 candles,
    more ammo for a long in this evenings session.http://screencast.com/t/NuasrXOm

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You are kind of giving away the setup mate…

  • Anonymous

    Mole – is there a post somewhere that tells how to calc a NLBL NLSL?  I feel like I should learn this.

  • Anonymous

    oh chinga, sorry

  • Anonymous

    wow! well guys time to show sportsmanship. No show boating. I would rather not attract filth to this place. we are professionals. Great setups have been made and taken. time to move on to the next move. Ha I wish I could convince Cerberus to cut this place off from anyone else! PRivate CLUB!

  • Tronacate

    A little disagreement with the EURUSD and /es

  • Kudos

    search site, its constantly posted.

    Quoting from mole: Net-Lines – simple and I do it differently than Carolan: Three consecutive higher wicks up: Take low of first wick and make it your NLSL. Three consecutive lower wicks down: Take high of first wick and make it your NLBL.

    My question is with the 3 consecutive higher (lower) wicks, do they all need to have a higher (lower) close or do they trigger regardless if the last candle reverses?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Net-Line Buy Level (NLBL): Wait for three consecutive lower lows, then take the high of the first candle as your NLBL. The push above that high is your signal to go long. Put a stop a few ticks below the NLBL, preferably at a non-rounded price.

    Net-Line Sell Level (NLSL): Wait for three consecutive higher highs, then take the low of the first candle as your NLSL. A breach below that low is your signal to go short. Put a stop a few ticks above the NLSL, preferably at a non-rounded price.

  • Anonymous

    Using my crayon it liiks like the acceleration line has broke;) Ya!

  • Anonymous

    rally done?

  • Anonymous

    Thanks!  I will have to look at this in detail.

  • EvilTrader

    Sp500 best month since 1974. Lets wait tomorrow.

    Hey Mole , see that candle ? Shooting star !

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p39124642528

  • Anonymous

    /HG  best 5 day up move that I can find for years

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I have created a cheat sheet which will also contain definitions/examples for inside day, variation short/long, TrendDay, etc.

    https://evilspeculator.com/?page_id=24885

  • Anonymous

    Nice!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    SPY love end-of-day.

    how awesome is that?
    no man’s land, dip, reverse up, pierce thru two lines, scare the children,
    and close at the upper line.

    http://i40.tinypic.com/2hq6mg6.png

  • Anonymous

    that should work as a nice ‘quick reference’ if one needs a confirmation that the trade they think they are seeing is correct etc

  • Anonymous

    Great!

  • Anonymous

    nice, not a good place for late day longs or shorts
    also last hour doji, 
     

  • Anonymous

    Cool thanks Moley

  • Anonymous

    I think this is allowed today!
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EmfE4KAZicY

  • Anonymous

    Like in Count deMoley

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    gaps get filled…eventually, right?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I’m planning on creating in page anchors which some of the new alerts will link to. So if a noob doesn’t know a concept then that’ll be the place to look.

  • Anonymous

    lol yeppers

  • Anonymous

    LOL

    They haven’t been hurt enough already: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/zee-price-stabeeleetee-bear-market-20-under-month

  • nyse

    unless it doesnt 😉

  • Anonymous

    Question on Net Lines – Do the candles all have to be in a row or can there be candle that maybe is flat or goes slightly in the other direction in the middle somewhere?

  • Anonymous

    They need a subscription to the zero.

  • Anonymous

    yup stick with your indicators and dont let folks bash them. i have the 19 39 ema indicator i use and it was called archaic by the black kat KATZO7. keeps me on the right side. now he went brokey broke times 9 lives.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p08392775941

  • Anonymous

    That’s well broke!

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Strange – ISE is down…

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That guy Katzo was banned here a year ago – then he was banned on three other blogs I know of. Complete idiot…

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I can’t believe they are pimping the same chart as T.K. over on the Slope… wow…

  • Anonymous

    so did you go long around 1200 chic ?

  • Anonymous

    sentiment reading or put call you mean? p c is up today to 102 from 84

    http://www.ise.com/WebForm/viewPage.aspx?categoryId=126

  • Anonymous

    small longs but main thing is exited short positions almost perfectly oct4 when i said so that morning before we reversed higher. saved my bacon. no position at this time. i do not day trade. i would be almost as broke as KATZO7

  • Fearless

    NEW POST!

  • Anonymous

    ok cool. But 19, 39 indicated your exit from short?

  • Anonymous

    it is one of a few main indicators i use. if you dont take profit when vix is 40 oct4 you will lose it quickly. a cross initiates a postion. i also use sentiment and %stocks above below 200 day etc. 19 39 ema along with major trendline got me out at 1290 a few months ago before the drop. last summer to this summer bagged a bunch of points. i dont always use one indicator, but when i do i prefer dos equis. ohh i mean 19 39 ema.

  • Anonymous

    good call on that. i know a few other bans also. he’s always right, never wrong. BUT BROKE

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    No, the actual site was down today.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Looks like it’s back up again 🙂

  • Anonymous

    Thanks chic7. Also on on oc4, vix went outside BBs.