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Getting late and the market is tired…
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Getting late and the market is tired…

by MoleNovember 15, 2009

Berk here again…

On Friday, I covered the BPs, the $NYAD, the $NYHL, and the $SPXA50R.  All of which are showing the double divergences that I was looking for with my original “Browser Death” post.  In this update, we will look at the $VIX, the $NYMO and $NAMO, as well as the $RUT.

Weakening...

Weakening...

Weak internals...

Weak internals...

These are the $NAMO and $NYMO showing all sorts of divergences and weakening patterns.  Notice on both charts that both the 10day and 50day MAs have started making both lower highs and lower lows.  This is not to gaurantee that the market will start dropping immediately, but it means that the market’s core is rotten (oh wait, we knew that anyway…).  Seriously though, when markets are making new highs on less advancing issues and lower volume, we know that some sort of reversal is at hand.  It is just the size of the correction that remains the issue.  My analysis tells me that is will be a large correction judging by the amount stocks have rallied, and by the $SPXA50R and $SPXA200R.  Stocks have a long way to fall…

Silly $VIX signals...

Silly $VIX signals...

$VIX is making a base, and is running out of time between support lines and descending resistance lines.  You can also note that is has put in some sort of sloppy H/S bottom pattern between the $20 and $25 area.  You can notice in the chart below that there seems to be some repetition of this bottoming H/S pattern…

$VIX Fractals

$VIX Fractals

Just so we remember though…  the $VIX can quadrouple in a few months time….

Our leading/lagging index.

Our leading/lagging index.

A little look at our leading/lagging index, depending on how you want to be biased.  Anyway.  An interesting double headed H/S top pattern is looking pretty good right now.  However, as I write, the futures are up pretty big, so we may be looking for the green line to play out in a (c) wave and a push towards the 615 range before finishing minute ii.  IMO that would invalidate the H/S top.

Given the AH futures, I think we can expect wave 5 to finish out in the indexes that made a new high ($SPX, $INDU, $OEX, $NDX) and I don’t think that we should see a new high in the $RUT.  Overall though, the market continues to flatten out and weaken internally.  A reasonable fall should be pretty close at hand.

Skål!

Mole here: Some of you guys might have been wondering why the hell I was so quiet all weekend. Yes, the Goldman Sucks assassination team did launch another blitz assault but the evil lair was easily defended – suffice to say those sharks with laser canons on their head I got on sale were worth every damn penny.

Alright, the real reason for my atypical silence is shown above. Yes, your eyes are not playing tricks on you – you are indeed looking at NinjaTrader 7 version of the Zero Lite. How do you like them apples? 😉

But the fun didn’t stop there – I also managed to port geronimo to NinjaTrader 7 – much to my surprise the migration was a lot less painful than I thought. Although we have been running on MultiCharts as of late my hope is that NinjaTrader 7 will be more stable and hopefully avoid those empty alerts we used to suffer from. So, I’ll be running that one as well starting Monday and see how it goes.

Cheers,

Mole

Berk here again with a morning update.

First and foremost, let’s check out that road map on $DJI…

Updated count

Updated count

As you can see, the largest confluence of targets is in the 10480-10515 range…

We’ll watch from here…


About The Author
Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.