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Grand Theft Entry
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Grand Theft Entry

by The MoleOctober 2, 2018

I’m a bit strapped for time today and was about to skip this post. But then I came across a promising looking setup on the E-Mini and decided to whip out a quick drive-by entry post for you guys. If you recall, yesterday I was waiting for a dip lower preferably followed by a spike low to grab a speculative long position. Well, we got the dip yesterday and overnight a decent looking spike low has formed.

I say decent looking as we now got a nice long wick on the bottom. However there is no retest yet and thus this entry is highly speculative. What plays in its favor is that the spike low sort of lines up with previous ones from last week. So if you squint a little then you can see sort of an inverse H&S formation.

Admittedly this is a bit like looking at clouds and what now looks like an inverse H&S could quickly devolve into a sideways mess that eventually breaks to the downside. So IMNSHO we are dealing with a high risk high payoff situation here and that’s how we’re going to treat it.

I’m deploying an 0.3% R size here with an ISL < ES 2909. If it pans out then I expect a push to new all time highs. And if it fails we are dealing with a more pronounced shake out ahead of the October earnings season. Remember the seasonal stats I posted yesterday, which are a great guide.

Happy hunting and always make sure you’ve got a plausible alibi.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Edgy

    Got short yesterday morning, got out just before you posted this and was thinking about going long. I’ll call this confirmation bias
    😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hehe – trade your plan, whatever it is. This is a very speculative entry and your short could easily end up on the winning side.

  • Edgy

    I already won with the short and got out. Now looking to see which way to point next. I may need to extend my horizons, but I’m still trading small for practice.

  • Yoda

    PM and their miners failed to break down with a higher bucky: bullish

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Still short from yesterday, here is some support, see what happens.

  • bankwalker

    RUT still leading the way down …. until it doesn’t …

  • bankwalker

    BA weekly chart a thing of beauty …

  • Yoda

    That’s right. Snoozers R losers.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, equity breadth not looking so good for some weeks now .

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    I’ll join Mole long. We shouldn’t have to wait much to know if it’s right.

    update chart from Friday.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f8145545c9803de9ef5e20ea3b9656b67fc0af64b005130ed48a4b523daaae24.png

  • HD

    nice trade!

  • HD

    DX >95 should get a few products moving

  • Mark Shinnick

    The big question…Do equities have the stuff of a 5th?

  • ridingwaves

    could be a June like down move to 2850, can’t discount that….a move that would confuse dow theory bulls….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    Not yet, still can’t quantify the low as 4.

  • Mark Shinnick

    In that model, is the low determined only after enough upside, or must the low achieve a given downside relative to a high?

  • HD

    so far all we have is a zig zag off 2903. TL from June low will keep me objective. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/399c80a280f6120ef5428545fb75cab13209c56d6b42c29c42038cdaaec70b30.png

  • ridingwaves

    Autos and Housing starting to show the tiered rate increases are taking % of buyers out of market…..I was on Long island last week meeting with dealers and they were even cringing at Sept. numbers….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    were you on the boat? please tell me you were on the boat.
    😉

    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/nNyAuIsKJs0/maxresdefault.jpg

  • HD

    boats and ho’s

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SLV Yes ! Love it ! SPX short against yesterday’s high entered near close yesterday
    JULIE

  • HD

    needs to get above 2929 or I will join you S.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi HD SPX IMO 5 of 5 of 5 of 5
    JULIE

  • bankwalker

    not necessarily in that order …

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAC Now looks like an impulse down from approx September 19th Short the lower high next bounce guys Love it ! FDC also looks like an impulse down negating a corrective decline. The shorts are setting up Guys
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    no, a national car rental 4 runner, turns out I needed it, high water flash flood while there….made for fun traffic stories…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    BAC, meh.
    look at TIF.
    those rich people are gunna stop spend’n.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG I know we are LOL ! Checkout JWN (Nordstroms) The present consolidation looks like the 4th wave of an impulse down. Looking for one more minor leg down then short the lower high on a bounce GG
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG TIF about to bust down thru a lower trend line and RSI reached Yeah 60 What we like GG
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    oversold on daily, sitting on weekly support, tenuous it be, short at 62.80 or if it fails here….55 support

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Oh-oooh – now I’m in trouble.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Looks like you’re doing just fine, Edgy.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    HOW’S MY CREW?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m just pokin the bear. Confirmation bias.

    But I did know a guy on the radio who swore.
    Right before the economy died?, the NY women tourists out to Phoenix Resorts and accompanying spending, dried up.

  • BKXtoZERO

    waiting patiently, living life

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi RW PIRS had two targets posted 5,39 and 5.26 Today’s low 5.32 and could get the bounce RW
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Chief ! Doing Great !
    JULIE

  • bankwalker

    great Mole – trying to figure out how to use code to ID charts like the weekly BA … and then apply it to any timeframe …

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Swimmingly!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG RW JWN Weekly 21 ema approx 56.29
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    accumulating GLMD right now, have PIRs already..
    I like the GLMD momo play going into November…they did a raise at $15 pps recently, so buying under PE accumulation over next 3 months of tired retail shares, chart now looks great for move…..I will get out 1/2 on any rise into that abstract….could be SOC for liver patients who have limited drugs to help…if you get it around 13.40 and todays price your in good shape…..stop 12.96

    3 mos ago these 3 upgraded it
    Stifel Nicolaus at 50
    7/12/2018 Imperial Capital Initiated Coverage Outperform $59.00
    7/11/2018 Cantor Fitzgerald Initiated Coverage Buy $59.00

    TEL AVIV, Israel, Oct. 2, 2018 /PRNewswire/ — Galmed Pharmaceuticals Ltd. (GLMD) (“Galmed” or the “Company”), a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the development of the liver targeted SCD1 modulator Aramchol™, a once-daily, oral therapy for the treatment of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (“NASH”), announced today that a late-breaking abstract on the one-year results of a Phase 2b study of Aramchol in patients with NASH will be presented by the Company at the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases – The Liver Meeting®, taking place November 9–13, 2018 in San Francisco, California. The oral session will be presented by Prof. Vlad Ratziu, France, principal investigator of the ARREST trial. More data on Aramchol anti fibrotic effect will be presented in a poster presentation.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thanks RW Always appreciate your knowledge and due diligence
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG $SOX Yup A triangle consolidation. Guys IMO trade the trend lines matching the upper and lower Keltner Channel JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/18df1114e34009b9360843c6fc8f5d675fd4c6e2b57caf663c23b90972f39040.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    full disclosure.
    I’m long INTC. (I feel all …icky)

  • HD

    Locked in 10 HanDles

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Nice INTC Breakout of channel and 5 ema has moved above 21 ema INow into resistance ; 89 ema and upper Keltner channel. Get’s above AND. …. ! Now a https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/09d9953779fa0126f778b688031553e8a0902c38b23927b07fbe4a6b3d01b064.png 2nd entry would be a pullback to the upper trend line of the broken channel and or rising 21 ema. Good trade GG JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Way too many topping tails since September 21. The September 21 was a high volume high that was sold into and may very well be retested and if so tested on less volume would be a bearish setup. Julie confident and not running scared esp with the selling with the topping tails.Not going to run me off !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Banks and small caps along with XHB (housing) under performing What we are now seeing is the safety of the DOW. That usually means the end is near Julie’s two cents
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    schrodinger’s cat,
    you’re giving it all AWAYYYYY.
    😉
    SHHhhhhhh.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    OK GG Silence is golden !
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    xbi also

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    remember: prey on the weak.
    don’t go after the lead Bull. everrrr.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG The $RUT as mentioned yesterday could be forming a bearish rounded top JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/48d58b303fe8918ab4dbec6c92571d3060a70579e34743e953a63a81841b693b.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Long labu…for time being.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Rightside

    1 minute zero is printing money again

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yipes Mark LABU busted down thru the 233 ema Now it’s do or die at an important support Strong selling volume with big red candles. Not sure about selling exhaustion quite yet ! Good luck Mark. Personally I would not catch a falling knife but wait for a strong reversal candle to go long Just Saying Mark JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dc278f94d45a402353263c0e89ac9a193c66128a2bf54a642273ed3d6598b005.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG I was waiting patiently for the setups to come to me. Patience always pays GG
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    He’s got a chance at that strong support.

    if the RSI get’s around 31, be wrong – not for long.
    4 months of overhead (stormy clouds) waiting to rain.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, that’s my model. These are points of inflection where very tight stops and reverses work pretty well.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I waited for gold to come back from 2011.
    tell me another fairy tale Blondie!
    =P

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG How about a nursery rhyme

    Jack and Jill went up the hill and they each had a buck and a quarter
    When Jill came down she had two and a half
    Did they really go after the water ?

    LOL ! JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SLV Taking remainder profits long May re enter with a bullish close above daily 55 ema and upper Keltner channel. Now a possible pullback to get long again Not greedy
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • ridingwaves

    looks at trusty auction calendar…..hmmmm….this would seem to be a good place for draw down Thursday…30 days to push towards mid terms…..

    https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/quarterly-refunding/Documents/auctions.pdf

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW Now is the first of the month for Pension contributions and 401K’s Usually the first 6 trading days of the month
    JULIE

  • bankwalker

    RUT breaking down again Julie …

  • HD

    SPX stuck at 2929. Globex gap to the rescue?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD SPX I am going to pour the coals short (increase short position) with a CCI trend line break JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7ff24763a0177102277653e2cd8e7ff2add5d5ea8c8a29815b172b4ff13b29ef.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    I am surprised that your observation is playing out. This must mean that the banks are 100% on the side of whoever is in power. With such political crisis going on I expected volatity from le resistance to make them look bad.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi BW RUT very important. Unnoticed by many
    JULIE

  • HD

    14.68 HWB Oct /SI

  • ridingwaves

    we live in a corpocracy, Czars in charge are just the current meme, they and the cabinets are just the theater part of life…..

  • bankwalker

    I find that it frequently the canary in the coal mine …

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Julie’s Loving it ! SPX going up today and YES The “Hedgies ” GVIP selling into it again Love it Guys ! Riding the “Hedgies coat tails ! Yeah ! JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3e99b7d2ccfc97968412c6e7a53341e4238c156747661f266e7322e8abf601dc.png

  • HD

    I’m flat so I can say good luck now. Taking out yesterday’s low would put the hurt on. People are still buying the market above 2900……..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Very Very seldom do I swear … SPX Bearish rising wedge. This is nothing but Fuck’n Hope ! Shame on me ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • bankwalker

    When she was good, she was very, very good …

    and when she was bad she was superb …

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD A dump below the 5 ema IMO would initiate selling
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BW LOL !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Log it in your diary.
    Dropped the F’Bomb. Feeling frisky.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Comment duly noted and filed ! Very Very frisky ! LOL !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    this TOO shall Pass.
    LOL.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…nice to see something cut loose for a change.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Big Caps next GG
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ..and now a word from our sponsors.
    SPXEqualWeight.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPXEW&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p02499991935

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    small caps,
    banks,
    large caps,
    rock stars.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    MNKD Down to 55 ema (1.65) with RSI at 50. Approaching short term oversold. Strong supports 1.65 and 1.57 Watching MNKD JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ef61323cfacea41105c1a8530e79d7245b46bad8a60517bb9c6b34081f5a16e9.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Hat Tip to Yoda for spotting this turd.

    when price moves fast, grab a fib fan
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/370174dd519e4a42dd41bc7cbce3454932f574709d469c61d77be1f96af7188d.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yes Nice call Yoda !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX As posted below the topping tails SPX since September 21 are very meaningful denoting distribution to the unsuspecting
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Big News tomorrow?
    Yes, ADP Employment.

    https://finviz.com/calendar.ashx

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I can’t speak to the other indexes or Markets.
    but *this* bull trap door is now closed ladies and rats.

    listen to the pigs squeal.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Good to hear!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yeah, volatile conditions all year – it’s been one of the roughest trading patches of my life to be honest. Not a bad year but I’ve never worked so hard to eek out an edge.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Chief As stated previously If the market can’t take you out it will wear you out. I have been doing quite well with this market
    JULIE

  • Yoda

    Thanks guys

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Time. Check.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Back to work Guys Everyone Have A Great Rest Of Day. Thanks everyone for your great contributions
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I am starting to agree there. The intra-day volatility is getting worse and that’s worrisome. But the timing is just completely off – of course perhaps that’s for a reason…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Checkout the Raff Regression USO Also 16 is a very strong resistance on the weekly chart https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/666f69e07c6187f8a6bd822bba66fee30bb27cadea71c5fd694631fbefc17fe0.png JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    USO weekly Chart Strong resistance at 16 https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5ee18d4c48e42333e50ba731438e04874c94b6742abfa62a6e69e0ff16825f1b.png Also weekly 233 ema is approx 17 JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Platinum from 20 days ago is looking mighty coiled.
    [CougarGuideBook]
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24PLAT&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p79995193026

  • Yoda

    time to be on board

  • Yoda

    only a crash can hurt Drumpf now

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Yoda

    ready to pop higher