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Gravity Momentarily Suspended
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Gravity Momentarily Suspended

by The MoleNovember 28, 2018

I don’t think it would be an exaggeration to state that we are all flying by the seat of our pants at this point. Erratic intraday whipsaw rules each session while the herd runs from one side of the tape the other. Most everyone I follow or talk to is convinced a new bear market is upon us, which I am careful to not let creep into my daily trading activities. Directional bias of any sort is diametrically opposed to objective decision making and thus a detriment to our mission of market domination.


While I am more than open to listen to both sides of the argument one of our prime directives here at Evil Speculator has always been to always align ourselves with the winning side. Admittedly not a mindset that gets you into the history books for having employed unique foresight but as the old saying goes: You can recognize a pioneer by the arrows in his back.

While the weak fall against the arrows, but the greats, against all odds, continue to walk forward with at least a dozen arrows in their backs. It all sounds so heroic but what they’re not telling you is that the vast majority of our ancestors who managed to pass on their genes neither were the heroes nor the cowards, but the ones who took calculated risks when they felt the odds were in their favor.

Which is what I did once again last Monday and although the fat lady hasn’t sung yet, thus far it’s proceeding as planned. I had two entry triggers on my chart and the long side was triggered on that first spike higher mid session yesterday. What transpires from here is anyone’s guess but at the pace of things we should know pretty soon.

For now gravity remains suspended at least momentarily. The Zero indicator showed weak buying momentum so this easily could just represent another spike higher before the next shoe drops. Nevertheless my ISL remains as of now and I may bend the rules a little and advance it to b/e if my campaign gets to 0.75R MFE.

Gold has not gotten out of the gate yet and my binary entry triggers remain. Nothing to add here until we see movement.

The Dollar managed to hold the lower margin of the rising channel I painted on the daily panel. My stop now advances to breakeven as I want to give this one plenty of room to run.

USD/CAD on the other hand is in the process of forming a break-out pattern, which is extremely positive as it may trigger a short squeeze. My stop here goes to 1R and I’ll continue to trail along at a respectable distance. This is usually when more novice traders attempt to lock in too much of their gains prematurely. They also do this during trending moves which however have less potential for LKGB surprises. Break-out moves however require a bit more finesse as a revisit of the previous break-out threshold happens more than 60% of the time.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • bankwalker

    Mole,

    It amazes me how many people on this blog seem so certain about future market direct when you always preach the opposite.

  • Sp00nman

    Good morning Chief.. thanks for the roadmap. One note for you.. looks like an old chart of /CL? Was that intentional?

  • Sp00nman

    Yep.. perhaps other people are better at “reading the tape” on a longer term basis? Beats me.. I have trouble picking shorter term trends, much less longer term.

  • ZigZag

    Hi Mole, what crude contract are you charting?

  • Brishort

    +1, Jan should be around 51.26 right now….Unsure which contract Mole is looking at…

  • ZigZag

    yes, /CLF is the current contract

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Jason13

    Agree. There’s no place for “certain” in this market. There is only targets and stops. That’s the winning formula not the “right” formula.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Julie,
    Zerosludge is covering Tiffany’s – he he, we are so far ahead of the curve!!
    talk about “a day late and a dollar short”
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TIF&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p0540585939c

  • Brishort

    Let’s recap some clues, beware, only for trading very short term (an hour or so) :

    1) Market rarely has strong upward movement on dollar going up. Dollar currently its high of Nov 11.
    2) Market gapped up and at 2700-2720 resistance zone in lifeless upward sloppy move not looking impulsive.
    3) VIX & VXN now equal to yesterday’s close after a market gap open not yet retraced.
    4) NQ SAR 10 min. broken down, SAR 15 breaking, on support of SAR 30 min

    Bottom line: Chances of morning gap retrace as showing on Zero currently high. Zero not yet supportive of move but other indicators supportive of entering short tem shorts for morning gap (as visible on Zero).

  • Brishort

    One caveat though, it all depends on your trading horizon, short term objectives and risk tolerance for holding position overnight, not counting any leverage used, if any.

    Hence what makes a market, we may all have different time horizon to make of break our trades.

    Mole advices are extremely good on trading directional movement of a few percentage points move on an asset. They typically imply a risk management including overnight risk acceptance and low leverage.

  • Brishort

    Slight divergence on ES/NQ also showing on VIXVXN. NQ seems much more optimistic about its own prospects, whereby RTY and ES have already trending down south of their 5 min clouds much more clearly. Zero morning gap trade closes at ES 2684. It may barely make it before a then expected high probability VWAP revisit.

  • bankwalker

    short /RTY @ 1486.40

  • Brishort

    Mole, zero seems stuck.

  • Brishort

    Scrap that, zero was stuck. Gap closed.

  • Sp00nman

    Yep.. looks like it’s lagging. I had a platform freeze on TOS that screwed things up. Maybe there’s an issue with the feed that messed up the zero also.

  • bankwalker

    exit /RTY 1489.20 -2.80

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yup Guys They gaped it up as posted yesterday as a possibility New target 2723. However a bearish close today below 2688 will not be good
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I just checked and it seems to be working. Price is changing and the time index is correct. Are you still experiencing issues?

  • Sp00nman

    Thx, looks to be good now.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    despite the rally in the US markets DAX and FTSE very lacklustre..

    just sayin..
    all eyes on Powell

  • Yoda

    The onus is on bulls to get the tape out of the gate and running

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey Julie – I bet you’ll be all over this:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I1GFncbZBeE

  • Jason13

    Where did that new target come all of a sudden….abandoning 2709?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Reg. the crude setup – sorry my NinjaTrader didn’t update properly and I didn’t notice when I pulled it. My mistake and please dismiss this one.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Jason13
  • Jason13

    2710 target hit (from 2645). Gonna sit on sidelines a bit….my intermediate term bias is up but unclear as to the short term road ahead.

  • Jason13

    Wow…news?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    What the…?

    Well, I’m not complaining as VIXEN triggered an entry 10 minutes before 😉

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a638f18cb07f4163bf834ae92917eea83b0d700bddbf0e1935a24d41ae8d2856.png

  • Sp00nman

    Fed Chief came out with comments and “financial stability report” from Fed. Less hawkish on rates.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    LOL – nice!

  • Sp00nman

    Yep, everything popping! Shat wish I could say I was long ES.. PMs are doing nicely though.

  • TimeToPanic

    Fib at 2726. If I could, I’d short this little piggy spike.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Fed succumbs to Trump

  • Jason13

    Well 2723 hit…I’m thinking of calling you “the insider”….cause you must know something….

  • Yoda
  • Yoda

    Satan rally is here rats

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Okay take this for what it’s worth. This morning someone I am in regular contact with and who works for an institutional prop trading firm told m that IV ETPs were HTB again and that the big whales were back at it shorting the shit out of them. Those products are almost never HTB on the institutional level but right now apparently they are. And then just a few hours later the Fed comes out with their statement of only planning one rate hike in 2019.

    So there you go, guys. You can either try to get your ass on the inside. OR you can sign up to VIXEN (which literally triggered 10 minutes ahead of the announcement).

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Sign up to VIXEN if you don’t mind trading IV (see above).

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Yoda

    The dollar pig is getting it on the chiny chin chin

  • Jason13

    Someone help me with what ETPs and HTBs are again…sorry for the ignorance.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yeah, that’s a shame of course.

  • Sp00nman

    Taking a shot here.. ETP = exchange traded products.. HTB = hard to borrow?

  • Sp00nman

    So what you’re saying is Santa claus is coming to town?? 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    YES

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    He just did mate.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You guys are boring today. I’m off to the nudie bar.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    to be boring Europe not really going along (yet)

  • Sp00nman

    Thanks Chief, a little rich for me (and I’m always a little wary of systems), but I’ll def keep it mind.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Ho Ho Ho 🙂

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Deer AND Headlights. he he he.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m off to lunch.

    if your shorts weren’t stopped out (by now), what are you thinking!?
    80 cycle chart.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bf54a7d99ab14c219ec85d93719a99b397d97eac454b8b65da90bf42af2029f4.png
    -GG

  • BKXtoZERO

    I just read an article/study that looked at rate decreases or stopping increases and it was not actually a guaranteed positive to reverse stocks. It was on zh somewhere…. often the damage is done and rate decreases don’t exactly turn the tide. This may be one to short at 2800 or so again

  • TimeToPanic

    Two decent up days in a row, yet look at the Vix today, it’s down 0.25, just over 1%.

    This rally smells more iffy than the previous two counter-trend bounces to me.

    No time to chart today or this evening, as despite being sleep-deprived I have to go over into Cornwall for a league badminton match. It’s blowing a hoolie and I have to take a ferry across the river. Hope to see you all bright and early tomorrow!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D2NAWrXyaZQ

  • Sp00nman

    An interesting tidbit of info I saw on the twitter (I’m sure the timing is coincidence):https://twitter.com/pierpont_morgan/status/1066826147042856961

  • TimeToPanic

    Absolutely.
    The Fed are powerless, the dollar will strengthen due to eurodollar destruction and money flows into the US as Europe collapses. String dollar kills the Trump recovery, which is sad, but inevitable. Fed will follow T-bill rates down.

  • randomuser6789

    Done.
    Next.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yuppers but that was already foreseeable two years ago. And here we are…

  • Yoda

    Yeah a bearded one to boot
    https://img.huffingtonpost.com/asset/575936f82200002e00f800af.jpeg?cache=1jpbYNJ9EO&ops=scalefit_630_noupscale

    To sit on her lap, Anakin Skywalker I wouldn’t send

  • HD

    What a rally! Gapped over 2683 and was kind enough to come right back to it and let some hacks like me in.

  • HD

    Nice call Mark! You warned an IV crush yesterday….

  • HD

    Was there news? Oh ya nobody likes news…. tsk tsk

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Good luck..I’m squash (league tomorrow) 🙂

  • HD

    Wait a second?!? I didn’t even look. VIX is only down 1.1%. What gives? Guess the prop desks are all idiots. SPX is up 2%

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    forget that, show us some charts elk Killer.
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • bankwalker
  • Mark Shinnick

    We just hit upon some at volatility support for the time being, but crushing probability is high.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Yoda

    A little refresher about IV ETP and VIXEN
    https://evilspeculator.com/vixen/

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m giving a plus one, at least someone is helping out around here.
    😉

  • HD

    I said 2683 like 10 times.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I can’t track numbers, I’m a visual guy.
    Charts, Meme’s & Boobies – not necessarily in that order.

  • HD

    I’ll post some boobies. Got kinda lazy w charts. Guess everyone else has too.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    10 pts above New Years begin?

    a wash for ’18.
    crushed dreams.
    Muwahahaha.

  • Brishort

    Just back from a business lunch. left @ 11h30, I leave you the market 2 hours and you lift it 2%…. LOL!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Welcome to “off to lunch” club.
    You are promoted!
    😀

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Lunch is for closers.

  • Brishort

    Hello mission control, here’s the recap DX & CL:

    -Dollar may have had a LKGB retest. The line in the sand is quite clear…. this will have to be watched.
    USD/CAD long trade clearly under watch.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ba6740b0de93268d37b6e054d04c7ebb10577f5941dc3b0c14e869267a9de6b3.png

    Oil is on support at 50.20, but looking awful. Any too adventurous downside and a whole floor lower this asset may go. (hourly chart attached

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a8f2ac9d17dd79a580502e54d26addad21f07dad3cc0148a7bdce0b0bcdff990.png

  • Brishort

    Mole, shall we bring out the divergence binoculars on ES Zero?
    VWAP retest (20 points lower) on potential deck.
    Unsure what the trigger would be to initiate position though from a trading perspective. ….
    Even back to VWAP would still look like a very bullish day.

  • Wave_surfer

    Would you call that balance? 1 Bull article, 1 Bear.
    Hope and fear. Fear of the coming next crash, but hopeful because they found the 5 stocks that will still climb.

  • Brishort

    Agreed, time to sit on my hands awaiting more data to act.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    German’s made great tanks. Financial advice? not so much.
    😉

    http://tank-photographs.s3-website-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/munster-panzer-IV-tank-side.jpg

  • Yoda

    One says “crash” whilst the other “tough times”.
    Same mindset

  • Wave_surfer

    True. The bull article does say tough times, but that is just acknowledging what has already happened in the German market over the last few months. BUT…
    They have found the 5 stocks that are sure fire winners that will have you sitting pretty even during this ‘tough time’
    It still strikes me as a moderate emotions.
    If it was real bearish, then the articles would be about how the strong correction that already happened is just the beginning and the other article would say the first guy was too optimistic and it will be even worse.
    If it was real bullish then 1 article would say how the market was going to triple over the next couple years and the 2nd article would say that if you pick the 5 stocks he lists then it will grow more than 10x!

  • Brishort
  • bankwalker

    short /YM @ 25212

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    for me, of course. (sit)

    for the intraday zero traders?, GO FOR IT!!

  • HD

    I’ll join you. Fibs and VWAP 2710 ES

  • evilasevildoes

    hey new comp how to do i put on auto refresh on zero?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    So the Naz LL’d last week and everything else didn’t. Just in case you thought it led.

  • Yoda
  • Yoda

    It’s been over an hour now…and still no boobies 😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • randomuser6789

    The whales are Vixen subs.

  • HD

    I was stopped

  • Ronebadger

    SPX up 2%. VIX only down 3.5%…seems fishy to me…

  • Ronebadger

    yeah…fishy

  • evilasevildoes

    thx yoda

  • Sp00nman

    I haven’t been watching the zero that long, but divergences like this I’m wary of, especially when you have such strong buying on that spike higher on the news. It can seem like things are perhaps weakening, but it’s going from VERY strong to pretty strong. We had good volume in the upper distribution of today also as opposed to it falling off.

  • Brishort

    Fishy market, most likely, but the problem is to find anything actionable today.
    Most likely today must be left alone as a trending day.

    End of month on deck as well for shenanigans.
    The current action from 2627 low could easily morph in a corrective C from a shape point of view, all the way to month-end.

    Short term trading wise, this may therefore have legs on the long side up to Friday.
    This would bring the market typically to GG next envelope or arc line.

  • Brishort

    I use auto-refresh plus from Chrome store on chrome.

  • bankwalker

    me too

  • Mark Shinnick

    May only be wall of worry.

  • Yoda
  • Brishort

    Yes, you are absolutely right. Today became a trend day from the moment % moves became important. There is extremely rarely an intra-day retracement.

    The divergence in this case would have needed a strong negative zero print to become tradable.

    However the divergence speaks to the poor quality of the rally and swift action that did not really test prices but just jumped over it. It is not a sustainable strong advance, the speed and magnitude give it a corrective bear rally look.

    It could however have legs for a few days since month end is just a few trading hours away.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Nice move up ahead of G20…

  • BKXtoZERO

    Slow change in behavior….lack of trust.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    No on moves like these unfortunately, they simply show how buying pressure slowly dissipates toward the end. Let’s see what happens AFTER the big event, the follow up is what counts the most. Be aware that we may get a sideways session tomorrow in order to shake out some of the weak hands.

  • ridingwaves

    still a lot of hot money in the system, no defcon 5…..year end rally all depends on the 6th and 7th of December, long term auctions up the ying yang, and no wall money, no federal budget signing on 7th per Trump

  • ridingwaves

    Powell is not going to stop raising rates, so this little bump seems more about something else…..heck he didn’t say anything about pausing…..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Nice squeeze today.

    /YM
    let’s see if the RSI or FibFan find a ceiling.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/de389e44df6bb26ccc2823bc51900cfab87184f5fcef181c24bab764ee5a35ef.png