Discretionary Trading
Now Reading
Great Place For Entries
136

Great Place For Entries

by The MoleJanuary 23, 2019

A new spike low has formed in the E-Mini overnight with its primary low at the 2618 mark, which incidentally managed to almost exactly swipe my trail and ended my long campaign at a respectable 2.2R. Nothing to write home about but just fine for a move that may end up being a medium term counter rally within a long term downtrend. Now while many of you passionate bears may curse at this ‘dead cat bounce’ I am making the case that it’s actually a very positive development from a trading perspective.

Now here’s my stop out which perfectly nailed my trailing trail. Well played! And I’m not too broken up about it as I am now free to consider a new course of action.

Which most likely to everyone’s horror is ANOTHER LONG ENTRY! Yes I can already hear you guys call me a bulltard, but let me explain. From a technical perspective this is pure manna from heaven as we are being served a Retest Variation Long on the short term panel and a Retest Variation Short on the long term panel.

I know – shouldn’t it be the other way around? 😉

A breach below that spike low would be a technical indication of continuation lower. If you’re not short already then this is also a good spot for jumping in. Pick your own stop but keep it tight.

My brand spanking new SQN indicator suggests that this counter push either takes off right here or is destined to die in its cradle. Meanwhile what I find interesting (and a bit puzzling) is that realized volatility (RV) has been steadily dropping with only a slight expansion yesterday. This slightly plays into the hands of the bulls.

Nevertheless, given the general context of what I posted yesterday the long campaign has very low odds of succeeding but at the same time offers a low risk to benefit ratio. Or a high benefit to risk ratio if that makes more sense. Suffice to say that my position size is small here given the low chance of success.

If/once stopped out I would immediately flip for a short position as we would now have a failed RTV-L on the map that suggests we once again head lower. MUCH lower.

I’m taking a similar approach on the EUR/USD which is back in bounce territory given the pretty solid looking rising diagonal support line it has produced since last November. Plus the 1.13 mark has been my new nemesis repeatedly smashing any hopes of seeing the EUR/USD back below the 1.10 mark, let alone near par.

FWIW – they got it all wrong in the first place. It should be called the USD/EUR as I don’t see a convincing reason to use socialist Eurochode monopoly fiat as a base currency.  What’s next VEF/USD? Oh wait – they did that one too….

I am not amused.

While we’re talking about currencies more the more aptly constructed USD/JPY has been a trooper and my trail now is advancing to a juicy 0.3R. Yes yes, I know – someone alert the media….

A pop > 110 is necessary or this puppy ain’t going nowhere. My consolation is that most likely nobody in their right mind is daring to go long here. Which is usually where I come in.

 


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

BTC: 1MwMJifeBU3YziDoLLu8S54Vg4cbnJxvpL
BCH: qqxflhnr0jcfj4nejw75klmpcsfsp68exukcr0a29e
ETH: 0x9D0824b9553346df7EFB6B76DBAd1E2763bE6Ef1
LTC: LUuoD6sDWgbqSgnpo5hceYPnTD9MAvxi6c

  • Jason13

    I’m agreement here regarding one more long opportunity. From a historical perspective, this rally is very short in time despite being in a typical range for % retracement…only 23 days now. Very high velocity in a very short period of time. Now it may break the mould and just drop here but when matching it with 5 previous historical fits, we have more time to go and therefore potentially one more high to reach. Source- Gann Global Financial.
    Based on the above evidence and the end of day behaviour yesterday, I’m looking for an optimal long entry as well.

  • Brishort

    VIX currently bouncing on the 20 mark.

    If indeed any long positions to be considered, should be with VIX<20.
    Next few minutes should be telling if this can trend higher or it's the same as last week, i.e. Gap and reverse the gap, except this time market gap is up instead of down.

  • Brishort

    Furthermore, with a Zero not impressed by anything this morning,
    currently very careful in assessing the trend direction for the day.

    Current likelyhood very short term positions are for gap retracement, as buying pressure seems too weak against VWAP revisit/gap retracement (partial or full).

  • Jason13

    My interpretation of gap ups with Zero is that a fill with no selling pressure is that it’s a bullish fill but we’ll see what happens if and when we do fill.

  • maxcherry

    failing at the .618 also the daily 10.3.1 stochastic is crossing below 80 and if you want to count waves five down from the decent high

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3e4a39b1904f1bd9803d47a05bf7af43ca9fdbde58efc58439e3fb91b446e321.png

  • Brishort

    My trading horizon is in general extremely short since using < futures.
    Hence my points of view may yield sometimes different conclusions.

  • Jason13

    Gotcha. On the short term note then, i sometimes see the bounce at the overnight low if not the close of yesterday in the futures.

  • Sp00nman

    Yep Jason, O/N low/high, closes, and the high/low of prior day’s ranges are levels to watch.

  • Brishort

    NQ (10 min) has until 10h40 to bounce right here and NOT TRIGGER the SAR

    If triggered, lower BB at least at 6656 first then 6640 (overnight futures low) visit is high likelihood.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fe0fdb9c05c7f71aebf985d4363dc515a78d3c7839757db1d222c7ac80dfd67d.png

  • Brishort

    SAR triggered, short term shorts validated

  • Brishort

    VIX 10 min as cue for the end of the move once rising trend less sustained.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2093bb536afe54f558bf1cd454f40b0a409629737de1be7a0349f4058e9a5dc1.png

  • Brishort

    BTW, A-B-C short term moves using SAR (10 min charts) are much easier to see.

    Above is a perfect example that is very usable and has a very good track record for timing very short term moves.

    B is typically a sideways movement that never became profitable (from SAR perspective) and C is steep.

  • Brishort

    I have outside engagements, won’t be here rest of the day.
    See ya all soon!

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    2008 cf 2018/19 – so far points 1 and 2 completed

    1. can see the initial fall from the topping pattern was about 18% (2018 – 20%)

    2. Rally from that first low was 12% (2019 -13%)

    3. Market then fell 18% and made a lower low –

    4 Market rallied 9 % (weaker)

    5 Finally 27 % fall

    6 small rally

    7 final fall and capitulation

  • randomuser6789

    Seems like no buyers or sellers today.

  • maxcherry

    i’m not buying it, or i should say, selling it, earnings missed in sept 2007 by 15% if i remember right, short term rates were 5%+ on the 2 yr either of which is the case now

  • Brishort

    VIX keeps going up, you only need fear for the market to go down….

  • Brishort

    PS: Mole ZB previous entry point recommendation should remain on radar, trade parameters for entry still valid.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    well I guess you probably also need to factor other variables P/E ratios, inflation, etc but I was just pointing out that declines tend to be similar -IF the recent down move was the start of a cyclical bear move (12-18 months) . If not we will know soon enough.
    Human behaviour does not really change – especially when you look at crowd behaviour

  • Brishort

    Channel now possible to be drawn on Zero. Link two previous highs on 5 min panel as new stop trendline for any short term short positions.

  • Brishort

    Over and out, leaving for real now!

  • BKXtoZERO

    Long DWT 10.20, stop 10.08

  • BKXtoZERO

    grabbed extra TVIX 52.7, both plays intraday and tight unless hard in the money

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Secular bull market from 1987 https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/79926e3fde20492ce180c1899d22a2a9949b068505a84ca18ff58860625b6777.png
    bit confusing –
    But 3 main drives UP
    2 major corrections 28% and 38 T%

    now undergoing 3rd correction – but is it correcting rally from 2016 or 2008?
    Looking at FIB retraces interestingly the 23.6 % retrace of 2008 and 38.2 % retrace of 2016 are very close – around 21600

  • HD

    2618 to the .618 and back. Some people build a system around those fibs. Just saying

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Going to wait for the close. Into the close below 2622.94 will add to short No reason to hurry IMO Remember the banks are key here. $BKX appears to be failing at it’s 89 ema and BAC failing per chart shown previous thread Market will not go up without Banks participating
    JULIE

  • randomuser6789

    TVIX.
    When it closes below the lower BB (20,1.4) during high volatility market phases, usually reaches the upper BB if not closes above it – possibly for several days.
    This totally fails in a lower volatility market phase. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2fd4d3abb2fee847dca937d51ac1f154575db9842b6dcd2d093862e6796fff1e.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    Out of all TVIX 55.43, will re-assess +10$ up from today 52.7, +10 is from hold 45.7

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Good one BK ! The sun sets only to rise again
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    In agreement with MAX that decline from 2675 was impulsive per reply to Brishort previous thread stating it appeared impulsive
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO
  • Ted

    LOL – good for you! buffet?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG … I will not stand for you MIA … Report to your duty station Evil Spec immediately . Miss Ya !
    JULIE

  • HD

    As disciplined as it gets too!

  • BKXtoZERO
  • HD

    Can’t blame him for taking a break though.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD .. Your chart yesterday showing moon cycles. Really cool ! I thought about how much the moon actually affects our lives and the lives of animals. Full moon brings out deer and elk at night feeding ; Wolves and coyotes howl at the moon Raccoons and other nocturnal animals rejoicing with a full moon.The Big One … Ocean tides affected and controlled by the moon.IMO moon cycles are relevant Thanks HD for the chart
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Of course not HD
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah….consequences seem severe for failure…sentiment-wise.

  • HD

    So if you were trying to be a buyer today against yesterday’s low do the stats on how many times a 17 day 12% rally corrected in 1 day and only 1 wave. 60% of the time it will get 3 waves back at a min into fibs. Has that happened?

  • HD

    Did you see how crazy it made everyone here!?! Lol. Thx Julie.

  • StockTalker

    First attempt by the bulls failed, /NQ 6600 IS the line in the sand for me. +4 /NQ now to see if they can get it rolling again.

  • Mark Shinnick

    I’ve had time in my experience of being correct in ultimate resolution but have burned-out emotional capital …only to see that was just before a major move.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Crude was running out of steam on RSI, time for a move down, to maybe 49….. that would be an obvious HnS if it landed there. One step at a time though. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6bee2c17a7be190801b21a41900f48ccc1118c60ed9edac6f0b3980f58b45ed8.jpg

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Excellent BK .. I too pointed out same per chart shown previously. Like minds as GG would say Thanks for the chart BK
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Public service announcement: I am a jerk insofar as I failed to post my crude exit while on vacation over Christmas. I do post all my entries and exits (except this one) I got long CL via UWT in increments below 50 CL, my AVG was exactly 12 and I dumped it all at 11 and was glad after sitting through an 8 handle. I slinked out on that one….. CL corrected down to 50.50 and I grabbed that. That was “investing” which hasn’t worked out the few times I have tried ignoring trading sense. So there you go….. Sorry! ES dudes………….

  • BKXtoZERO

    What got me on CL was that I assigned significance to the 50 level and no one else cared on the way down or up. A round number line in the sand meant nothing.. Smaller trading size position now.

  • BKXtoZERO

    do you have the stats and are teasing? I am curious of course…. just keeping it tight, taking what is given again

  • StockTalker

    Confluence of support for /NQ at this level.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Again showing this chart. The daily 89 ema and upper Keltner Channel has precluded all bounces since the October decline.Always IMO draw trend lines .. The bearish rising wedge pattern alluded to many times appears to be playing out i.e. a breakdown NOW a parallel channel can be drawn … IMO we must watch the intersection of lower trend line of new channel and daily 21 ema per comment previous thread https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/48df06d4264d44522c4925503eaf30342dfa053c5f68059c89b6e8dc6bd0fe83.png JULIE

  • StockTalker

    Market anticipating some news from this government shutdown. W1 up looks complete down for 2 and now a W3 to finish this market.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    This IMO important .. The ramp up from December 26th may already be pricing in a Govt. Shutdown resolution, A resolution could cause a spike up that could be sold into.Also we must remember that the decline from October IMO was the market forward reacting to the impending yield curve inversion as the market anticipates 6 – 9 months in advance. What has changed in this regard concerning the yield curve inversion ?. Nothing ! Be careful Bulls !
    JULIE

  • HD

    Stats for that being a 1 day 1 wave hit= zero.

    Since the top SPX has not had a single 1 day hit and reversal.

  • Ted

    nice chart

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Also Guys The stellar earnings report now occurring may possibly be as good as it gets (peaking) for 2019 and the market decline from October possibly reflecting this. Something to be wary of
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thanks Ted .. Hang in there pal !
    JULIE

  • Ted

    In fixed. I applied your channel expansion to IWM. Monday looks to be a key day.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Ted When trend lines intersect with a key moving average … Very important. The adage give a grade schooler a pencil and a ruler he can make a million dollars in the market is very true
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys SPX 60 min chart MACD 8,13,5 is below it’s center line which is bearish . Also RSI (30) is below it’s front weighted moving average 6 confirming the bearish bias (about to go below 50). Chart reading 101
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys SPY 60 min chart … SPY below it’s 60 min VWAP and also a bearish crossover 60 min 8 ema below 60 min 21 ema. Hang in there Bears. Again going into close a bearish close below 2622.94 I will add to short. As someone would say discipline and rules.Well discipline and rules is what I have and always will have … No need for lecture ! had to get that off my chest !
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Long tvix 52.3

  • Jason13

    Small long at 2619 ES….will add depending

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Jaso excellent You plan a trade and trade the plan
    JULIE

  • roma kwas

    You tell them, Julie! The gall of him%#!

  • BobbyLow

    Afternoon folks. Hope all is well and it’s good to see a few of my old friends are still here at ES. Captainboom sent me a link that had Scott’s last post on it and I thought I would say a few things about it. A lot of what I’m going to say most of you already know but if you are anything like me you might have a built in forgettor so I’ll say it anyway.

    Scott and Mole are both battle tested and seasoned veterans of the trading wars. Trading is a war between us and the computer systems along with the whims of the market. The market can be a cruel bitch and wipe us out in a heartbeat if we let it. I just had another good friend of mine get totally wiped out and after talking with him on the phone I can understand what he did even though he should never have done it. He was certain that this time was going to be different and that he would be able to recoup all his previous losses in one trade. He went in big on metal futures. The trade went against him and he received margin calls that he met and went in even deeper. Eventually he got totally wiped out and lost his entire life’s savings.

    Scott used the term being carried out on a stretcher and my friend blowing up his account was just one more casualty of the trading wars. This one hit close to home because it happened to someone I knew. Having worked closely with Scott, I know he has gone down for the count a few times himself. I think Mole has had a few very close calls as well. Personally, I’ve gone down for the count so many times, I feel like “The Bayonne Bleeder” Chuck Wepner would have felt having gone up against Muhammad Ali over and over again.

    It took me many years to get it through my thick scull that when in the midst of battle, a seasoned vet like Mole or Scott says duck that I better hit the ground. Another thing that took me many years to realize is that I must have a system that fits my personality and risk tolerence. I found out that no matter how hard I tried, I couldn’t trade like Scott, Mole, HD. Julie, GG, etc., or any other of the traders here on ES.

    I’ve gone back to trading oil which has been my most consistent performer over the past 20 years. The bottom line is that I don’t really know anything and do not have a clue whether oil is going up or down from here. But what I do know is that over the past 20 years, Oil has gone through periods of indecision and slice and dice mode followed by an extended run to the upside followed by periods of indecision and slice and dice mode followed by an extended run to the downside and repeat. This is what it does folks so my system is built around this in a time frame that is a good fit for me. There will always be geopolitical crap going on and “perceived” supply and demand issues to keep the gyrations going and without them there would be no periods of indecision and extended runs in both directions. So once again, do I know what’s going to happen to oil prices? Nope. However when my charts say it’s time to begin a new position, add, reduce, close, or change sides of an existing position, this is what I will do. I learned the hard way, that without this kind of disipline, I am dead in the water. Oh and BTW, no matter how good a system is the markets are designed to always create self doubt. This is what it does. So this is where back and forward testing are so vitally important. In reviewing my testing I can see where slice and dice periods came into play and consequently give me the confidence to trade through the tough times that will enable me to trade enjoy the good times.

    I have to chuckle a little when thinking back to my perma bear days in 2009, or 2010 when I was bitching up a storm about how rigged the markets were and Mole told me to STFU and get my head straight before I blow up my account again. I was crushed and my feelings were hurt but all he was trying to say was “INCOMING, DUCK!!!! And he was right.

    On a side note,I need to thank Ted for his recent props and comments about the Patriots. Ted’s right that the Gints beat us and that’s all there was to it. As soon as the Pats beat KC, I thought Oh Boy, here comes the Patriot hate which I’ve come to embrace. 🙂

    Sorry for going on and on but it’s been a few months . . . BTW, I’m glad to see an absence of political talk which does nothing to help anyone and is a total waste of time and energy.

  • strider

    Good to hear from you Bobby.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi BL … We knew you were OK as Captain Boom gave occasional updates. Welcome Back BL
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Nice to see you BL! I was thinking of you on that crude wipeout. My guess….knowing you….is that your system had you short and that you got most of that move. Is my guess correct?

  • randomuser6789

    So nice to hear from you, BL. Peace to you.
    I hate your Patriots too, but I am happy that you are happy. 😉

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks Strider

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks Julie

  • BobbyLow

    LOL Thanks Randomuser

  • Ted

    If you can keep the Rams pass rush at bay the game is yours. I know the Rams are solid up the middle but don’t know enough about their defensive ends. They don’t have Tuck or Strahan. You beat Brady by putting him on his ass. Good to hear from you. I know enough about your trading style that you killed that big dump in oil.

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks BKX.

    My system went short crude on October 10th and continued to be short with varying size between full and half positions all the way to December 26th.
    My system went long December 26. This was around the time that the Pundits (which I try to stay away from) were giving all the reasons why oil was heading to the abyss. That long worked out great until Jan 16th. The last 4 trading days have been indecisive slice and dice. I’m still holding 1/2 Position Long at the present time but it’s on shaky ground.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Playing it very close to vest. Somebody knows something about Govt. Shutdown resolution. No secrets on Wall St.. SPX not really rolling over as it should.$BKX intraday reversal Caution long or short warranted IMO
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    You sly dog…. I knew it! Congrats to the Tom Brady of crude oil

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BL USO overbought … Looking for a pullback perhaps to 10.30 for a long entry
    JULIE

  • Ted

    Fantastic!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    You got it BL Plan the trade and trade the plan.If wrong not wrong long Preservation of capital job one
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    LOL

    Price is still keeping me on the partial long side although it’s close to kicking me off.

  • Jason13

    Yeah my expectation is just a quiet range day today but we all know a surprise can hit. Zero has literally been zero all day. I imagine volume will be super low.

  • Edd

    Nice to hear from you Bobby. I told my son the other day that although it is painful to acknowledge, I believe the Pat`s at this point have to be considered the best all time organization in all of professional sports, ever. Oh well, go Skins, any decade now. Best to you, your wife and all the family. Ed

  • Ted

    Did you sustain any damage from the past storms? I was worried about you.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Brishort .. “Happy reirement ” BL .. “Welcome back ” …GG .. Get your gerbil butt back here … ! We all have a job to do ! As Brishort says ..” Teamwork ”
    JULIE

  • Sp00nman

    You’re a fellow Skins fan? And people say trading is rough.. 😀 Pats one of the greatest compared to the skins, one of the worst.. *sigh*

  • Ted

    Best coach ever. He was once a Giant. I hope he returns!

  • BobbyLow

    We’re using different methods Julie. I would assume you’re using some kind of support/resistance plot that works for you while I’m using a “go with the flow” momentum plot that also works for me. BTW, I’ll probably be short before USO hits 10.30. But this is exactly what I meant by having different methods and or systems that are a good fits for our individual personalities.

  • HD

    Can’t have an EOM rally from where SPX was. Jmho

  • Edd

    Over 25 years of pain now. Jack Kent C. and the rules as they were back then, along with Gibbs and Beathard were simply the glory days. I`m fast running out of time hoping for anything good coming from them, all things considered

  • Sp00nman

    Yep, I threw in the towel a couple years ago. It’s clearly terrible management from the top down, and there will be no success as long as morons are running the team. I’ve accepted that reality and I no longer let their consistent losing bother me. Pretty damn liberating actually.

  • HD

    Algo spits out 2594. Not confirmed yet.

  • BobbyLow

    Yup. I got flooded again with over 16 inches of rain from Hurricane Florence followed by another 4 inches from Tropical Storm Michael right after it. Hurricane Matthew took out my HVAC System in 2015 and I made sure to install the replacement system out of harms way with my air handler going upstairs and putting my outside compressor on higher ground. We actually got 2 – 200 year storms in 2 years. Go figure. We need to spread the joy around a bit. LOL

  • HD

    Hey BL! Glad to see you post again

  • Edd

    Amen to that spoon. Almost have walked away completely. The wife is happier than ever though on Sundays after 45 years, so maybe it was good after all!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BL I agree completely .. My lens USO an impulse off the December 26th I prefer not entering overbought esp with USO and oil 55 ema below the 233 ema (daily) USO pulling back from daily 55 ema will present a chart showing overbought ;the bullish impulse ; resistance and 55 ema which it is IMO pulling back from.A decline with the IMO impulse should only be a corrective retracement offering an entry You can see the positive divergences MACD and RSI which typically mean an advance to the 55 or 89 ema’s https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a4c5d5966a50026d54d59b7c46ca12ed2ec5bd5a50740e208b879f4683eb8114.png My lens BL and again Welcome back as we all work together to beat the bots ! JULIE ….

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks Ed. It’s great to hear from you. 🙂

    I hope that Alex Smith is able to come back for the Skins. He’s a very good QB and the Skins put up a good fight toward the end of the season after his brutal injury.

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks HD

  • StockTalker

    Off to the races

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD I have a level 2590 close to your 2594
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    ST IMO watch 2639
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    Waiting for /NQ 7k test

  • Edd

    Two QB`s with two broken legs. Only could happen with the current Karma within the organization. The only team/organization that I have seen in my lifetime that mirrors what the Pat`s have accomplished would be John Wooden at UCLA, but you can`t compare really.
    I used the Steelers in the late 70`s as a counter to the Pat`s, but after the Falcons SB I threw in the towel. They are the GOAT. Win or Lose, enjoy my friend, you and all your fellow fans have had an amazing ride.

  • BobbyLow

    GG will be back. He and I both came to ES about 9 or 10 years ago. We’ve both left about 3 times or so and came back. This place is like “Hotel California” – ” You can check out any time you like. But you can never leave!” 🙂

  • BKXtoZERO

    Stopped out of half tvix day trade down 1 52.3 to 51.3…. Got them for 10 gave back 1 on half position size

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Thanks for stopping by. Sorry to hear about your friend. That’s really tough. I talk with my wife every day about my trading. Win, lose, or draw. It’s an effort to keep myself humble, and she can always say “WTF are you doing?” before I blow us up. That said, it’s on me to use proper trade management and honor stops. Things I’ve learned here, and the hard way. There will always be another trade if I preserve my capital.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys FYI SPX .. Today’s bounce off the daily 8 ema Fib exp moving averages very important to monitor. Tomorrow a bearish close beneath the 8 ema could engender selling. A real battle now between Bulls and Bears. Again somebody knows something Govt Shutdown per post below Extreme care warranted. My stop in place
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Out of half DWT flat.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Below in a reply to ST 2639 is important .. Now there .. could pullback
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks Ed.

    I used to own season tickets back when the PATS were Lucky to win 3 games during a season. They were a laughing stock back then. But after the almost 2 Decade run during the Kraft, BB, TB tenure, they don’t owe me a thing. BTW, every SB win and loss have been squeakers with the exception of the very first one against the Bears. But the interception of Wilson in the Seattle SB and overcoming 28-3 against the Falcons were almost rescue squad time for me. LOL

  • TomW4

    what level is that 8EMA?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Tom 8ema @ 2621 I have a level 2620 and 2616 Sorry I should have mentioned the 8 ema at 2621
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Actually the bounce today closer to 2616 the low 2613 slightly lower than the daily 8 ema
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yup it’s a battle at 2639
    JULIE

  • Edd

    Comeback against Atl. surely ranks up there as one of, if not greatest ever. I still can`t believe it. !

  • Ted

    Attributable to dumb as hell Atlanta coaching staff. Run the ball – kill the clock – simple. Although I live in the area I’m not a Falcon fan.

  • BobbyLow

    Captain, I believe you’re one of the traders out of countless thousands who will make it. I’ve seen you methodically back test, test, retest, paper trade and do as much pre-work as possible before going live.

    And yes staying humble is extremely important. I know first hand that the more cocky I get the more reckless I would become and Ms. Market say “Oh Yeah, Sonny Boy come to Mama”. LOL

  • StockTalker

    Boost after hours, allot of bank earnings.

  • BobbyLow

    Agreed. Every game almost comes down to which team makes the fewest mistakes. I thought for sure they would run the clock and kick a field goal putting the game out of reach.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    ST last week BAC jumped over 7% on earnings JPM and WFC reported less than expected but advanced pin action BAC GS also popped on earnings but MS disappointed and gaped down forming an island reversal. Kind of a mixed bag with the Big Banks
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Miss type WFC not C
    JULIE

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    The hard part now is pulling the damn trigger when my conditions are met. My monkey brain is still working to get over that fear of loss thing…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Something funny going on here. Hmmm ! “Hedgies” closing below it’s open and below it’s 5 ema Did not add to short as no bearish close below 2622.94 per previous posts Stop in place as stated below playing close to vest as a surprise may unfold.Back to work Everyone Have A Great Rest of Day !
    JULIE

  • TomW4

    Thank you @disqus_qkFlPoMLUZ:disqus ! much appreciated

  • BobbyLow

    I don’t think the fear thing will ever completely go away. Besides a little fear is probably a good thing because it can keep us from doing stupid things. (for the most part) 🙂

    Back during the tech bubble, I got lucky right off and being a babe in the woods this led to having no fear which led to hubris. This combination was deadly to my account and eventually turned into what the market giveth (which was a lot), to the market taketh awayeth.

    If my fear is more than normal, what I try to do which doesn’t work all the time is to try and feel the fear and ask myself why am I being so fearful? Has my system been working as expected? If I’m in a losing streak, is this just part of the game or is this something unexpected. Most of the time, I’ve found it just to be part of the game.

  • roma kwas

    For those intrepid traders who still want to try their hand at
    managing hedge fund money, Druckenmiller ticked off three requisite
    qualities: Be intellectually curious, open-minded and have the courage
    to bet big and fight your emotions.

    “I’ve never made a buy at a low that I didn’t just feel terrible and scared to death making it,” he said.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-18/druckenmiller-says-algos-are-robbing-markets-of-trade-signals?inf_contact_key=a260fc96657ee69005d935ff10bc437e855617fe24e5ee4ba31908341d5b8f0b

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Well, I’ve got the first two in spades. I’ll keep working on number 3. Thanks!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    CVX Last night Lone Ranger said to watch .. Today bearish close below major and minor support levels; below a parallel channel lower trend line and Ichi Cloud conversion line (8) STOCHS rolling over and RSI peaking approx 56 Good Eye Lone Ranger JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6699ce67bea7f2f2c611f6d873065abbdeedc64b33a6738902828c800993ca79.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    XOP Follow up on chart shown I believe two days ago Looking for a pullback from it’s 55 ema and overbought for an entry long Yup Now pulling back. XOP now pushing down thru it’s 21 ema Target approx 27 i.e. 50% retracement and broken upper downtrend line on a back https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d43dde70d3bda25e29b3769d039836a56d3ea82189fa6db8719cf5fbc6b695db.png test Guys Plan the trade and trade the plan. Letting XOP come to me. JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Again extremely important to watch SPX on decline at it’s 21ema approx 2592- 2586
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief and Everyone. Bull Market $VIX:$VXV going below 0.90 and reversing associated with market tops. NOW appears 0,90 possibly a floor JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fbc7b5a711aea04a870f8e48907ea6bd13a1ad1f221909e6a8b5430984469e90.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys When I trade USO or oil I watch very closely XOP (oil and gas exploration) and OIH (oil services) They are highly correlated with USO https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/72465a6626aba0a379d94d2cec42c1e7927d9485b6b5f24f514d6928a9979dc1.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3603a7eb46ff03fd32411b998da0c9fdaf8d1066a6a68af1441733c4ad3fbbf1.png Readings above 0 correlation and above 50 strong correlation
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG .. 10.. 9.. 8.. 7.. 6.. 5.. 4.. 3.. 2.. Where Are You ! Miss Ya GG !
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Julie, Like Bobby and Gerb,…. all you have to do is go away for a while and everyone loves you in this world!

  • BKXtoZERO

    Nutty Gas has been pretty wicked. I bet this wiped out a bunch of people. Really nasty moves here.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3fdeaf809d55f10448224e913d4626620b44aab7decd64b707becfdee46dd5eb.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    interesting divergences Julie