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Groundhog Day Trading
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Groundhog Day Trading

by The MoleApril 12, 2018

So I ended up taking out a lottery long ticket on the E-Mini last night and I’m feeling very iffy about it. After all my last attempt to play the long side failed and given the messy chop over the past two weeks has done a good job of conditioning my emotional state to be pessimistic about the bullish case. And that’s excellent!

Because quite frankly speaking emotions have absolutely no business in trading – they should be avoided at minimum and faded at best. And neither is there any room for hindsight bias which I’m clearly starting to fall prey to now. I take it your personal sentiment somewhat resembles mine.

To summarize many of the perspectives I have shared over the past week or so: Nothing really has changed technically speaking and, although the ‘big slip off the plate’ always remains a possibility given the Syria situation, this is exactly the type of coiled up inflection point I usually covet when it comes to trading equities:

Now here’s the E-Mini long position I took out yesterday near the close of the session. It has since bounced a little but remains pinned below that red diagonal I drew on the chart.

Bottom line here is that equities either manage to bounce here or will descend into the murky sulfur laden depths of Hades. That simple.

Another reason why I simply cannot be short at this stage are the seasonal stats which suggest that the most bullish week of the year in equities starts next Monday.

Although picking a decisive direction at this point is almost impossible I have to continue being long until the bears show they actually have any teeth.

The perfect spot to short was perhaps in late February near the double top. Yes, that’s hindsight talking, damn you cognitive biases! πŸ˜‰

Okay a bit more chart candy for the bears, just so you know that I’m not a perma-bull hell bent on BTFD. VIX:VXV is looking pretty damn nasty still and has a long way to go to normalize.

Realized volatility in implied volatility is still subsiding and the after shocks of the late January sell off are still being felt, thus affecting participants. But just before a similar formation has resolved in favor of the bulls last time doesn’t mean it has to this time.

The SVXY was reduced from 1x leverage to 0.5 after the big January wipe out, which has affected the range on this ratio chart. However if the current reading is to be believed then we should be seeing a continued drop in the VIX.

Of course keeping option premiums elevated due to high IV is costly to anyone holding OTM puts and thus being exposed to increasing theta burn. So while this range may be annoying to you and I it’s manna from heaven for option sellers who are short vega and especially short theta.

Alright we’ve got setups – so if you’re aΒ sub please grab your secret decoder ring and meet me in the lair:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • rmwaddelljr

    I have another “technical tool” to suggest using in your evil tool box = the TWEET. If you follow the breadcrumbs, that’s where all this hanky-panky starts. Volatility certainly follows;)

  • Yoda

    If you are interested in the current geopolitical climate, and have 40 min to spare, then I recommend you all have a look at this interview with Virginia State Senator Richard Black : https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=uKkVH_1523491130

  • BobbyLow

    Took 1/2 profit on my crude long at the open. Will wait and see on the second 1/2.

    Whenever there is more Geo Political Risk than normal going on, I’ve learned to be extra cautious and that the only thing I can really expect to happen is the unexpected.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I am taking one last intraday only shot that this is a fake=out… .5R TVIX back on at 9.47, was holding .25R from 10, stop ES 2670+

  • HD

    Gold Gerbil dude! Nice call on Bitcoin this week. Amazing actually. When equities dry up I’ll start messing with it again.

  • Mark Shinnick

    I see the cracking before crush here I’m long equities since earlier. Maybe exit in a few minutes depending on momo.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I see it too…. lotto play w/ tight stop. we have seen bulls drop the ball before.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, around here thereabouts I may exit.

  • HD

    $SPX is at the neckline for the INHS pattern, same chart from earlier this week. I’ve added the bearish option, since all trends look like 3 waves, a triangle would screw the most. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6a400f0aca6b3987d216e2e132fcb9fda6f38dd5534eff292332ca10ab8fba87.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Screw the most….maybe the words to live by πŸ™‚

  • HD

    it measures 120 points so I’m game for either direction.

  • Mark Shinnick

    That hole is around mid 2690

  • ridingwaves

    anybody mess with wheat? outside of cereal….starting long position….scaling in slowly…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Stopped trading it around 1992, stopped eating it 2004.

  • BobbyLow

    I traded a few wheat futures a long time ago. What vehicle are you using?

  • BKXtoZERO

    Quite a failure on Gold.This looks like it may be a lasting rejection. Anyone? Bueller?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Think I’m still bullish there. Exit Equities, local vol support.

  • Yoda

    if you are a sub you would know what to do

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    The weekly and Daily are starting to get bullish, winter wheat crop looks ugly…have a bid at the gap left open as the 100 is still turning up and they could even drive it there….looks to have been a long ugly ride for weat owners…. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/18dbe87a26a90e577d4e2e7ac41b74e63dced9582b6a720ccad8ddf82611f839.png

  • ridingwaves

    read the CBO report, you might think differently

  • BKXtoZERO

    as for me, I would have shorted the spike failure yesterday or the drop below the break out today.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    #1 get a road map (below)

    #2 sell the damn stuff any time you see headlines of Syria, Missiles, War.

    #3 Profit!!!

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p28615596514

  • Mark Shinnick

    Turns out gold is screwed for the time being by $ so no long reentry seen.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    thank you. thank you.
    I owe it all to the Master and Evil Captainβ„’.
    {grovel grovel}

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    a 1927 Ford Truck. Restored by yours truly.

    http://www.2040-cars.com/_content/cars/images/59/1175159/001.jpg

  • Mark Shinnick

    Do you do castings? Sheetwork? Long eqts small, BTW.

  • BKXtoZERO

    shooting star for all to see

  • ridingwaves

    weekly, either a rounded top or waiting for some tightening of mvg, averages, I like it long…PMO-RSI and Trend is bullish… https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/69b4e35690218eff2113fdb886cfe1b28f6edc39d201bdba61ee4aa80528d5ec.png

  • BobbyLow

    When I traded Wheat Futures, I couldn’t get used to the screwy hours that it traded because it opened at around 8 PM EST and then closed between 8 and 9 AM every morning and then closed again around 2:20 PM.

    I just ran an hourly on WEAT and this thing might be a good trader for me. I’m always looking for something that moves and is not married to the equity market. I’m going to run a quick back test and although I’m a relatively short term trader, I might buy some today.

    Thanks for the heads up! πŸ™‚

  • HD

    10 handle hit from that neckline

  • Mark Shinnick

    Do you have some tools to help quantify local swings to help define favor or disfavor to volatility? Wrong thread…sorry.

  • BKXtoZERO

    probably nothing like you. Mainly look at ES and VIX in terms of RSI, horizontal supports, basic moving averages…. sometimes volume hole charts but I don’t look at those as much as you. Any tools you recommend? (thanks)

  • HD
  • Mark Shinnick

    Impressive.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    BTC,
    I said several weeks ago, that this would be the time for danger as BTC runs into a triangle area.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dfa017d41ed38a93f85cd31289dbaba3a5fe84f72e17992f4a26b05d1cec3e57.png

  • ridingwaves

    evil pesticide company wins again….

  • Mark Shinnick

    What you do is so specialized; some of your fills very impressive. Just simple, not terribly aggressive index trendlines and chart rules on 1 and 5 min could help avoid bucking the intrinsic volatility weakness. In summery: manual chartwork.

  • ridingwaves

    the weekly is telling me that the bottom was Jan. (daily above) PMO, trend and RSI starting to show a lot of positives….

  • BKXtoZERO

    out, TVIX, 10.34 from 10.45, on .5R position and loss on .25R position from 10 to 9.34. Seems like the bulls have their software working again. Usually 0.10 to 0.15 on TVIX gives you 15 handles on ES to be right or wrong. VIX breaking under 20 looks real. Fun is over for a while.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Could be that “killing” has become too second nature in the business of “growing”.

  • ridingwaves

    banks began reporting today, earnings season is here, next week is going to be very telling….shorting during earnings is defcom level 5 stuff over last 6 years…..if bulls don’t play here at this time, the trend has changed…

  • Mark Shinnick

    svxy ?

  • BKXtoZERO

    Mainly I follow and believe price. Price lets me know if I am right or wrong real fast. I no longer have belief in ANY technical advantage or forecasting ability. It is all chance, I see people here with systems that only have a slight edge in win rate, so a monkey could be taking your entries for you and not do much worse, BUT…. it is the EXIT that defines you. I think I am better than a monkey so I should do well!

  • StockTalker

    Looks like a bull and feels like a bull, but is it a bull? Still holding core short positions. Added to /YM and now -3. Took a long position +2 /ZN just now.

  • BKXtoZERO

    quick observation: If bulls want goldilocks, low rates, and are afraid of good jobs data, then they should fear good earnings as that would embolden the FED to keep hiking and keep talking tough.

  • ridingwaves

    the fed is hell bent on inflation, the issue is can they slow it once it hits….
    they could care less about stock market, I think concern lies around rates getting out of hand before summer buying season, this is the top or RE market….I don’t expect good things after this year, a 20% correction is sorely needed…. but right now pink ponies are the flavor.

    such as this spin, rates dropped .04% for the week, yet see the spin…..

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-rates-head-even-lower-offering-home-buyers-a-breather-2018-04-05

  • Brishort

    A bit late to market this morning. Mole, excellent post again.

    Setup 1 and 3 you recommended at the bottom are right on top of my list. Notably setup 1.
    Children scaring may even be over, this could be the trade of the month!.
    Thanks for these, hoping to bank coins on them.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..for?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, monkey would have less benefit of foresight in the cycles of Things, ebb-and-flow. In that sense there should be some forcast…but as you say not of belief…but of the data already there like for example what we typically have in anticipated supports and resistance.

  • HD

    10 handle hit again from that neckline

  • Mark Shinnick

    Cheap thought: IF bears had a chance to exacerbate, this pre-crush support zone looks like it.

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    Tried a long earlier because it looked like an Up trend day might be shaping up… That didn’t pan out. The Zero is flat, should have listened.

  • HD
  • Mark Shinnick

    Intraday here might allow some sort of short in here….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    are you kidding me? I farm out all the hard stuff.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    I’ll be on the sidelines. Looks like a chop fest. If one of my indicators fire I’ll take a trade but that looks unlikely.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/da68c1a3ec742fc60ff5e3508d5a641659786e631d0ef4b04f9ce291914bbedc.png The gap up today did push us above the 20 EMA which seemed to be a barrier for the bulls… Breached the IP as well.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Good point…gotta watch out for not-too dramatic slow-moving dagger insertions into the skin of things.

  • Trouzzer_Snake
  • Julie

    TS You were watching the same thing as me i.e. the 21 or 20 ema now a 3rd test of the inverted H & S neckline matching the declining 55 ema. Price was between a 21 and 5 ema convergence.
    JULIE

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    I didn’t see the inverted H & S, had to switch to line chart… Good eye!

  • Julie

    USO A bounce off 13.28 support LOD 13.30. Must have a close above yesterday’s high (13.59) for a confirmed breakout
    JULIE

  • Julie

    Yeah TS It is there
    JULIE

  • HD

    90% on these so far. Slinging some decent size now.

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    Thinking out loud about the psychology of the candles here (a la Scott)..

    1) the weekly IP was breached downward
    2) Bears couldn’t hold the low and gave up lots of ground
    3) Bulls have rallied since and are about to breach the previous candle high.

    If that happens I think it gave over for the bears. This was a major opportunity and there will be pain if it’s lost.

  • ridingwaves

    I agree…bears might have to wait till May now…still a slim chance, I want to see what $COMP does around 7200

  • Julie

    TS the larger triangle pattern still in play. As you can see the price was between the 21 and 5 ema convergence and now the neckline matching the declining 55 ema Then there is the gap above. The bulls gave got there work cut out for them https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/811788099b1f5e291867117594ab145e4e7308ff90450994b2f3d0c21d6ff964.png JULIE

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    I don’t know… MACD crossing over, RSI Pointing-up, and they breached that 55 EMA that seemed to be holding them back. This will be a fight but the Bears are on notice.

    That said if the bears do come back it will be Armageddon. The least likely outcome and all that…

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    50 SMA?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well…I’m short for the time being.

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    These are long term musings, get it while you can!

  • Julie

    TS If the inverted H & S pattern plays out the target will approximate the intersection of the upper trend line of the possible triangle
    JULIE

  • Julie

    That will be where a nice short will be
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    yep, cple candles near there from feb to hurdle…should be a little resistance, but that gap way up by 7500 looms ominous for bears….they are so few

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    HYG, breeching the red line.
    that’s it folks, shows over.

    I’m just going to reuse my chart, save $$$ & time.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3054647d43a08fe31cddbddd2ac22e4ede4725303e6c3e2c488cd62c64896bf6.png

  • Julie

    SPX Guys very much https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/72ed879deedde9c4b99f96a2ea81a017b3f85ded1196000502fa905ef32dbf02.png tough resistance the bulls have there work cut out for them. A minor lower trend line break matching a bearish close below the daily 5 ema IMO is a short also JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    good chance of a gap up. Asia overnight squeeze.

  • Julie

    Yes GG That is how TPTB usually clear it and tomorrow is Friday
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I don’t know why you guys insist on charting ETPs – traditionally tough to do due to rebalancing and other monkey business.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m waiting for a spike low and retest.

  • Julie

    Hi Chief What a week Huh?
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • BKXtoZERO

    The bullish post with the dude with long blonde hair was a bit much but other than that you are the man

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • BKXtoZERO

    You can’t keep up with the Gerb Sir

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I was at the gym.

  • BKXtoZERO

    The Gerb should probably spend some time at the gym too LOL

  • Darrell Osgood

    Senator Black certainly is an interesting man. I will say that he is publicly susceptible to confirmation bias, whereas the rest of us hide it a bit better (ha ha). Frankly, I haven’t figured out what is going on over there. Every side is spinning the facts like an indecisive dog trying to sit down on a merry-go-round.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I can’t believe I was BULLISH!!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You never saw the commercial? Or are you from outside the U.S.?

    This may clear it up: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xszIaNpYILY

  • HD

    oh shit! well timed Fabio, hit to commence

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Thank you good sir!

    Missed out on Bitcoin though as there was no sign whatsoever it would jump 10% in one hour. Must be some pumping scheme by some crypto whales.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That’s right – rub it in! πŸ™‚

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    DID YOU? Hindsight is always 20/20.

  • Julie
  • HD
  • Julie

    HD Agreed looks corrective. Not a waver but do look for impulses and corrective patterns
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    are you kidding me? I pump every every day!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cs58bpZXd-A

  • HD

    Very bullish pattern, only EW is bearish. If that concluded E of the triangle we have 120 handles on deck. 2640 gate keeper IMO.

  • Ronebadger

    ahhh…that’s nice…a boy and his dog….

  • ridingwaves

    the dog is dead…see the arrows…

  • Ronebadger

    How about the last three up-spikes on the lower hourly? Down trending line, whereas the price movement is pretty flat on those spikes.

  • Ronebadger

    I jest

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    Hey RW,

    I’ve had a change of plans regarding Wheat. One thing about the ETF WEAT is that it’s thinly traded which is no problem when going long. But when it comes to shorting it there could be a problem finding shares to short. I looked for viable Short Wheat ETF’s and the cupboard was bear. So I took another look at the Mini Wheat Futures /XW again.

    As you know, trading different time frames are going to produce different ideas on directional movement and they all can be correct. My Hourly just became a short yesterday so I went short /XW. This contract is very thinly traded too but it tracks pretty close to the full contract /ZW.

    I expect this trade to be a loss as a way of welcoming me back to wheat. πŸ™‚

  • BKXtoZERO

    I don’t watch TV. None… outside of watching Philly Eagles.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I did the Gartman…. those scumwads. I used to sleep 2 hrs into MKT time and I should go back to that,

  • ridingwaves

    weat the hell….:) I would hope for a little move down, I’m definitely thinking longer term trend line, kinda like oil trade trend….

  • Mark Shinnick

    Geez…maybe this can break today….would just cream the shorts.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Yoda

    Nutty gas has been trading in a tight range for the past 2 months. A breakout from it should be a nice play. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/374f41a4898deca20605658205bdbe29fe89db97a8412045a2afa575c47aae92.png

  • BobbyLow

    Understood.

    I’m not sure that I’ll get a move down from here but I want to be in sync with my short term look. If it turns back up I’ll have no problem flipping to the long side. I’m using a pretty wide stop and we’ll see what happens.

    I’ve been working my ass off trying to find something besides oil that’s a fit for my current system.. I thought that Gold might be a player again but it has way too many emotional movements.

    So I’m going to give wheat a try and if that doesn’t work or becomes more trouble than it’s worth then fuck it. I’ll just have to accept that I’m a “One Trick Pony”. πŸ™‚

  • Julie

    SPY volume today not exactly breakout volume
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Maybe few are paying enough attention until it really happens…the slow-moving knife finally triggers the nerve.

  • ridingwaves

    you would be worth a lot in the old west as a one trick pony….

  • Julie

    $BKX (banking index) Very important IMO Watch the confluence (1) upper channel trend line (2) 61.8% retracement (3) lower cloud boundary JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f1edcce6510a0885a506cfeffd3eb5562e1f086e890449b5ec5db5cdb5eee330.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    @RW what was your point reg. Puerto Rico in the prior thread? Didn’t really grasp your meaning.

  • Julie

    Also $BKX currently at the 50% retracement and Ichi Cloud baseline (21)
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    u mean Ecuador and Costa Rica? the point is time to explore central america since Central Americans are all now living here in the US, nobody around and book a warm temp vacation….if your freezing, ya know…

  • Julie

    BAC would like to short … Up into (1) 55 ema (2) baseline (21) (3) 50% retracement (4) lower cloud boundary (5) approaching overbought and a minor wedge forming JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d6480f43d7443124075761d2361614ce1a0ce7ef6486c2060936b5f2cedc9d2c.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d6480f43d7443124075761d2361614ce1a0ce7ef6486c2060936b5f2cedc9d2c.

  • HD

    limit down is 5% so your risk is 2530 ON. Have a good one πŸ™‚

  • Julie

    USO watching this breakout closely for a possible failure. Strong support at 13.28 Must have a bullish close above yesterday’s high 13.59 for a breakout confirmation. Today’s low (13.30) a bounce off support but unable to make a higher high above 13.59 on way less volume .JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e4bb30dc0e2ba1bb8ad8d8abf04e0517c7c80cf28d91b05798b1936705dd8780.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Right Costa Rica. Yeah the weather in Spain has been rather disappointing. And VLC is supposed to have some of the best weather in all of Western Europe. This winter was particularly gray and annoying – and it’s still cold now.

    So yeah, CR would be worth considering – especially now that we speak Spanish. I hate moving however, it’s such a PITA. Do you have pertinent suggestions you would like to share? Like places we should visit on a recon mission?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well, here are four strong arguments AGAINST Costa Rica:

    Malaria
    Dengue Fever
    Chagas Disease
    Leptospirosis

    With my luck I probably get all four of them in the first week.

  • Brishort

    Thanks Julie for all your USO insight. I got stinged again today by CL intraday. Really hate the current bitchy mode of that asset….

  • Brishort

    I have to say that I actually visited CR, and it is really nicely developed. They often say that it is the Switzerland of Central America and felt quite true when I was there 2 years ago.

  • Brishort

    Actually long NG, but I need to close my eyes on the daily gyrations!

  • BKXtoZERO

    My BKX target is ZERO

  • Julie

    Brishort USO has been a crazy trade … First a double top then a channel breakdown …. Then an ascending triangle formation and now a breakout which I seriously question JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Julie, when it comes to oil there are times when certain types of T/A are secondary to other forms of logic such as until the threat of the bombing of Syria goes away at least for a little while, oil prices are going to be artificially high. We had a larger build in supply than expected on Weds and price still went up. Having said all that, I’ve been long via OILU and took 1/2 of my profit this morning. I’m running my crude system on two different shorter term time frames and both still call for being long. However in the back of my mind I can’t help but think that even if it’s bullshit, if all of a sudden everyone is sitting around a campfire in Syria singing Kum Ba Ya, oil prices will probably drop like a rock.

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    That’s one more thing than I watch.

  • grednfer

    Scalping rallies now. Can go higher but needs to get past the 4hr 200.
    The Big One is near. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9f2211324ed7018e6306d9a143b0e9b4264ffd5e6150ab482e7bb17294d8d253.png

  • grednfer
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    nicely sliced & diced.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Well…There’s long dow, or short dow. Yeah…lets hope one of them has a really bad one πŸ™‚

  • grednfer

    Could be …..
    My chart is from the high in Jan.
    Its failed that line 3 times, so we’ll see.
    Could break to the upside in which I guess we’ll see a giant W.