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Hair Club For Traders S01E01
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Hair Club For Traders S01E01

by The MoleApril 23, 2018

Scott and I had been talking about doing weekly video updates together and after getting my act together technically over the past few months I finally ran out of excuses not to do it. So this is it folks – the Mole is coming out of the closet, and instead of the usual Monday morning update I hope you will enjoy season 1 episode 1 of Scott & Mole’s Hair Club For Traders.

An errata regarding my explanation of positive vs. negative SKEW – I don’t think I explained it well in the video. Clearly the neckline on positive SKEW is on the right side as the peak leans to the left.

I know this may be confusing to many, and a great way of remembering this concept is that the mean is larger than the median, thus it’s called positive SKEW. And why is that? Because the average is less affected by many of the negative outliers.

With negative SKEW it’s the other way around. The mean is now smaller than the median as it is less affected by all the positive outliers and the neckline is to the left while the peak leans to the right.

Outliers will always affect the median more than the mean, and once you understand that single concept then SKEW will make complete sense to you.

Shameless Plug

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Is it too early for a meme? WTH.

    It’s working for Yoda!

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B-d-5R5CQAAVXn5.jpg

  • Mark Shinnick

    Wow man, that’s EZ to absorb, nicely done.

  • ridingwaves

    Nice video gentlemen….
    97 billion in treasuries need to be sold this week, will the indirect (China, Japan, Others) be buyers….last auctions they were very absent

  • Mark Shinnick

    Keeping eye on lqd, % scene is epic.

  • phantomflash

    Actually, the mean is affected MORE by outliers than the median.

  • ridingwaves

    so if LQD goes below 113, bubble begins to deflate faster? What is your read there?

  • Julie

    Be careful guys I posted this chart and comment on Friday previous thread JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a20643edf504570cb149c3b7b1de9b84aae5ec6d326e9b466ee72f83e71b665a.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Its just another ringing bell about money and confidence when not even investment grade corporate debt is market-credible anymore.

  • ridingwaves

    got it, Gold and Silver Opex on Thursday….

  • phantomflash

    I can’t actually tell what you’re calculating. It seems to be the vertical axis you’re interested in, but estimating the numbers, the mean is about 12 and the median is about 5.5 – in BOTH charts. I don’t think you really want to be calculating on the horizontal axis, because if you did, it’s a simple sequence of 1 to 18 – in which case the mean and median are exactly the same: 9.5. (Again in both charts.)

  • ridingwaves

    the 10 year was rejected at 2.996 this AM….

  • HD

    GM, 42 min video. Let me get a beer. BRB

  • HD

    Last week wanted a new entry in SI <17 and now that it's down I'm questioning my sanity. In the buy zone. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/665c576aa2374fe9c46b4616678c136aecaa07de5dc1359398907d1a63f87070.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…nobody needs to give out money for free anymore.

  • Mark Shinnick

    …gotta wonder what the last 18 months doubling of % means for metals…..and whether we return to a more natural rate.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    Think it can trade $18.10

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    it’s all fun and games until –
    Bill Gates walks into a Seattle Bar..

    https://introductorystats.wordpress.com/2011/09/04/when-bill-gates-walks-into-a-bar/

  • HD
  • ridingwaves

    oil and banks off, lets use tech to push it up today boys and girls…

  • ridingwaves

    got 1/2 fill on WEAT at 6.25……stop at 5.95

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    gold/dollar ratio.
    it’s make or break time this week. IMHO.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD%3AUUP&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p03682540104

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    High Yield (continues) is losing it’s air in the tire..

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HYG&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p26165655637

  • ridingwaves

    the dollar is getting jumpy here…..highest its been since Jan……
    which is why today’s rally is BS, someone is goosing tech to drive it….

  • Julie

    RW I am short both … BAC longer term and USO small position from last week
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    be careful on oil, a spike to 80 is still in play…..but a pullback makes sense beforehand….

  • BKXtoZERO

    added to TVIX 7.12 for intra day edit (stop ES 2685)

  • Julie

    Tight stop RW Very interesting the COT Commercial net short position CL is massive JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4bbffa0cc33663f15f39c6936652e9b487b332bd75b97badd65f9d01a77372eb.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    MOLE! LOVE the video! It is great finally seeing you!!! (and Scott) totally cool. Big thanks

    .

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    WTF? Mr. “75 and I’m out”.
    80?
    come on dude.. (poke, poke)
    😉

  • Julie

    Chief Hope you are feeling better
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    My face is still a bit swollen as you can see but I’m feeling MUCH better 🙂

  • ridingwaves

    I’m out at 74 mr. gerb….no change there but as mentioned a spike to 80 would be the best thing for bulls and bears

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Those are actually not my charts – pulled them online.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Heheheheeee – I’m letting it grow until I look like Ragnar the Terrible.

  • BobbyLow

    RW,

    I’m taking another look at how I want to trade wheat. I’m about as far away from being a farmer as possible but I’m finding out that good growing conditions and large expected yields can have an adverse result on wheat prices. Supply and demand and all that good stuff. 🙂

    From today’s “Farm Futures”: “Wheat prices are mixed this morning, with trends shaped by weather outlooks. Minneapolis edge to new two-week lows overnight on prospects for better seeding conditions, though weekend storms were disappointing in some areas of the dry southwest Plains, supporting winter wheat contracts. . .”

    http://www.farmfutures.com/story-morning-market-review-bryce-knorr-0-30780

    In the meantime I revamped trading Gold Futures /MGC again and went short on Friday. I’ve stopped trying to scalp it for small gains because it was too much work for too little money. I’m now working with much larger stops looking for longer runs. So far so good for today.

    I’m also short Crude from Friday and after a promissing start this morning, price is tightening again and not looking so hot at this moment.

  • Julie

    BL USO 13.78 is strong resistance
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    My favorite part of the video was 32 minutes in where Scott said that “really dumb bears” shorted the candle on Friday the 13th, “dumb bears that look for any excuse o short”….. I think I did take a shot there but flatted out and I am glad because I then shorted the high on the 18th. So… hopefully that wasn’t me he was referring too LOL

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Actually I texted me your name after he said that, sorry mate 😉

  • HD

    Ya, cuz shorting Fridays in April has only produced 100+ handles of downside. Those dummies

  • ridingwaves

    I have no long term experience trading wheat, so take what I say with grain of salt, it has been a hard winter and I see some more hard winters over next couple years…but I see it as inflation play too…maybe wheat too is like Natural gas, there is plenty of it….thus the low prices even with inflation pressures mounting..but I do believe food inflation is there. Near weekly lows still, but its bullish weekly chart, first time RSI bounced at 50 in long time. PMO bullish.To me its like buying a cheap long term put on inflation down here…when the 100 starts to push above the 200 I think it will move quicker if that comes..
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/eee24e7d9488747b1e0dd8a034adda3629c393921e2c70b7fe0e06d7804df4b8.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    I figured…. It was great hearing you guys talk tape reading, all the
    things you look at, game theory…. I have done pretty well this year, I do lean bearish but having a plan
    and a stop is what makes the difference. I can thank you and Scott for that!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    who’s going to buy my treasuries, there going up and no longer free, China and Japan indirect dont last, now banks need to add liquid to the gas….equities, equities, why the heck are bonds not free, where the hell is my QE>>>>>>>>

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    Great video! I hope this really is only Ep 1 and you guys do more! Did you guys do a couple takes or talk through it first? Was very well done…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well…its was indeed proximate to the closing of the Gold Window.

  • HD

    I don’t have a bone in the bear vs bull fight. Swing traders benefit more from that. Oldschool, some prefer to remain sellers while the MACD is under zero on the daily, as it has been for months. Just a different POV.

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    If I’m being honest I love taking the contrarian view. Everyone thinks the market will keep going up, I know better! Except for the fact that it has kept going up LOL.

    It takes a lot of mirror looking to not let this drive my trades.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah….a professional will still do great work even when he doesn’t feel well enough to do so.

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    Well said.

  • Julie

    Out of remaining 1/4 long position ABMD
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’ve got no issue with a ‘contrarian’ view (which isn’t very contrarian given where we are). But the bears need to show teeth when it counts the most.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Is that an edge you’re pursuing? I hadn’t seen the stats on that – if you do have any please share.

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    Thurs and Fri showed that they have some grit left IMO. Painted a nice weekly candle right at key inflection.

  • Julie

    USO 13.78 is strong resistance Still maintain a very small short (probe) JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9a0562b0f4ddf03d59c3f9931955b3c947745b1598ab8d07b978deba40cae7d3.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Let’s see how we close today. We are still in the shake out zone but IF I see a juicy short setup I would consider it assuming technicals line up across the board, starting with the Zero.

  • BobbyLow

    For all the purposes that you describe, what you say makes a lot of sense and there definitely has been food inflation going on for a long time.

    My swings are built for a lot shorter duration and based on price momentum which has been down as of late. Another thing is that the last day to roll the current May wheat future is Thursday which is currently in “Contango” (if I’m explaining it right) and the July (N8) Future is trading 13 Points higher than May (K8). I want to see how the July trades for a couple of days after it officially rolls on Sunday 4/29.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • HD
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    Here are all the candles I shorted in a big way. I was calling them fence post turtles. I was chatting with RW during the first one and you guys were all looking for 2850 https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4f388934d9884260caf2f04d2c686c184e01b43df1c75dc81d6ef29a2dd8bf19.jpg

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…long now.

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    I’m going to try and scalp a few points long here… Order in @ 2670.75

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    it’s a crap shoot. no need to waste my time guessing.

    off to lunch!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/be35e63192264528316fa8a96b538c1685a0d5b27a1fcdc7dc421534db9b2561.png

  • Julie

    USO Weekly Chart Negative divergences with a rising wedge and. three drives to the top pattern since February JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/66a3b0d8f1707b0ec2ae999cdbe13c021276500032d5f4c391c5e5ce0dade3fa.png

  • Julie
  • ridingwaves

    oil too strong, deer to fast, hard to shoot either of them….

  • BobbyLow

    FBOW, I flipped back to long. My system is in whipsaw mode right now but will eventually find it’s way again.

  • BobbyLow

    Yep.

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    Filled.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Standing aside..

  • BKXtoZERO

    Ruh Roh………

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    And….stopped out.

  • HD

    wow! Time stamp that warning, much appreciated.

  • ridingwaves

    if wtic was back in the 40’s I think spx would be about 300 points less

  • ridingwaves

    goosing I say…..

  • kudra

    Kal Drago looks like a bear. Time to eat.

  • Julie

    BL RW USO looks like a trend day so far one hour and 15 minutes left Let’s see the close and volume. Has broke above 13.78 resistance on momentum
    JULIE

  • phantomflash

    OK, then I should have said I couldn’t figure out what THEY were measuring.

    However, after studying the charts again, now I see what they’re trying to illustrate. The key is the vertical axis is labeled Frequency. In the first chart, instead of charting the simple number 49 (approximately), it’s showing that the number 2 occurs about 49 times. Number 3 occurs about 32 times, 3 occurs 30 times, and so on down to number 17 occuring 1 time while 16 and 18 occur zero times. The 2nd chart is reversed, where the low numbers (1 through 12) occur rarely, and the higher numbers like 14 through 17 occur very frequently.

    In this interpretation, their numbers for mean and median make sense. In the first chart, the most important (frequent) numbers (by far) are the LOW numbers, and the low median of 5.36 reflects this. But the mean has to give equal weight to the outliers — the RARE high numbers, so that skews the mean HIGHER, to 6.71 (i.e., TOWARD the outliers). So it’s still like I said, the mean (aka average) is affected MORE by outliers, not less. In the 2nd chart, the outliers are the low numbers, so the mean is again skewed toward the outliers — this time LOWER than the median.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Out of my day trade TVIX 7.10 to 7.52, holding the rest ;-0

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    I like it…..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    “we must be cautious”.
    News events tomorrow.
    Hopefully captain will have his beard/face locked down by then.
    😉

    But Thu/Fri are the biggies.

    https://finviz.com/calendar.ashx

  • Julie

    USO overbought weekly and daily charts approaching the upper trend line of a parallel channel JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/221f81da24ebb3b0ca03cb5833d9d39c00cfb449bd7e735a8fd1c7f66bd068a9.png

  • ridingwaves

    96 billion in bonds is the main story this week…selling them is not easy now days…

  • mSquare

    I guess if/when 2060 breaks?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uwiTs60VoTM

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    Yes GG As I have pointed out the 21 ema is the line in the sand . As I type above the 21 ema into the close
    JULIE

  • Julie

    SPX the 21 ema and the lower uptrend line … Crucial … https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/73f59c6e0a32031808b45c91bce6a625f6a6c7218b7e515d78d5e12957e70a61.png Confirmation MACD with a bearish crossover of it’s signal line JULIE

  • Julie

    SPX Close Both Held
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    My beard didn’t like the swings today, and I myself am ambivalent as to the rest of the week. Scott is probably right about it churning everyone sideways for a while and the historical stats somewhat support that.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You know what I’m going to say right?