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Hammer Time – Again
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Hammer Time – Again

by The MoleOctober 31, 2016

No worries, I am going to spare you the MC Hammer video today as I think you guys have suffered enough lately. But it is time to swing the hammer as the iron looks pretty damn hot to me. Of course given the market limbo we are still facing with nine more days to go until the election it is quite possible that this setup will once more find itself on the ash heap of trading history. But we just don’t know, do we? You may just take a look at the current configuration a few weeks from now and after a facepalm lament why the heck you didn’t go short here. Or the perhaps opposite – this was nothing but another sideways correction – I knew it! Yes, in hindsight it usually all makes total sense. Unfortunately until Stewie gives me back my time machine we’ll just have to trade the tape right in front of us.

2016-10-31_emini

So let’s do just that, shall we? What I’m seeing on the ST panel over the past few sessions is a series of lower highs and lower lows. I love those as it makes my life extremely easy from an entry perspective. Meaning – go short after a spike high with a stop above the previous spike high. Done – nothing much to say about it UNTIL that previous spike high has been breached. If that happens we are actually in good shape to be long with a stop below the recent spike low. And so on – this is how we navigate the mess, by using the churn in our favor. Sideways markets can be hell yes – but the whipsaw does produce context over time we can use to our advantage. It’s all a matter of perspective – and trading capital 

In case you’re wondering, I’m still short from last Monday but if I wasn’t then this is where I would swing my own hammer as this is irresistible from a purely technical perspective. Yes, I’m of course concerned with event risk but if that’s your worry then you’re better of not trading until the election is over (and neither of the candidates is calling for an investigation of voter fraud).

2016-10-31_gold_update

It’s difficult to predict what gold is going to do here but what is clear is that it has continued to coil up since we took that entry near 1257 and the general trend seems to be pointing higher. The more context we produce above that the better for us of course. If I wasn’t long here already then I’d most definitely pull the trigger now but my stop would have to be where I currently have it below 1250. I do maintain however that once this one takes off it’ll be a beauty to behold.

2016-10-31_crude_perspectives

A lot of folks are so captivated by the recent churn in crude that they seem incapable of seeing the forest for all the trees. On a long term basis the recent gyrations are actually extremely positive as they will – on a later date – provide a solid base from which to launch long positions. Now that may be soon or it may be some time next year – another drop lower is definitely in the cards. But in either scenario all the nonsense we experience now will be of value later down the line. Yes, the Mole most definitely prefers the long con…

2016-10-31_6e_update

The subs and I nailed a pretty nice entry on the Euro last Thursday but it seems another revisit of the 100-hour SMA is now in the cards. So if it descends back below 1.096 then don’t be shy – you know what to do.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Tomcat

    Happy Monday (although I am not sure if there is such thing). At these levels, I like Natty, Oil, Palladium and of-course after being on the road for a month, I like getting back into the grilled chicken salad routine.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Its always good to wake up…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s everyone? It seems the bus is emptying out … mmmh…

  • OJuice

    I got the other side of your trade in ES. Entry on Friday. Not so excited about it, though the fact that ES is holding on with oil and high yield getting clubbed could be good. Or my stop will get smashed here shortly.

  • Yoda

    Ok. Can’t wait for the elections to be over and done with (wishful thinking).

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    Here is to waking up with a good chuckle. Did my voting Friday in person. So, I am ready to participate on Nov 8th, helping others to vote.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Trump trading positions did quite well last several days as HC bets dropped from 80 range into 70, and Trump landslide from 6% to 11%.

  • ridingwaves

    wake me up when it happens…

    November is close, some sectors have their best 2 months coming up…..need to see some movement north on those sectors for my blow off top trade to be in play….if they don’t start moving soon, I’m out until January….

  • Ronebadger
  • BKXtoZERO

    Pulled off TVIX from 15.6 at 17.75 just now

  • ridingwaves

    Brent went below the daily trend line off lows….chart not updated for today….
    https://s11.postimg.org/vcpti7p6r/Brent_Daily_102816.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Ronebadger

    Insider transactions…check out the graph at the bottom
    http://www.barrons.com/public/page/9_0210-instrans.html

  • ridingwaves

    pretty ugly….

  • Ronebadger

    pretty ugly? is like like “jumbo shrimp?

  • ridingwaves

    Ahhh…brent opex today…..

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    went long /CL 47.16

  • ridingwaves

    more like this, the squeaking sound as the diver is coming up is the lobster flipping its tail back and forth putting up a fight….

    http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/10/giant-14-pound-lobster-caught-released-bermuda/

  • OJuice

    Spicy!

  • ridingwaves

    hanging tougher….

  • Tomcat

    Who is to blame for my trades (Oil, NatGas) going down chitter today??? It can’t be the dollar…

  • ridingwaves

    the vix as Ronb pointed out is acting strange….brent opex today, NG was last friday….

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    image seems to be broken…

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Complete fuckery on the NQ’s today so far

  • Tomcat

    Thanks…completely clueless that brent opex was today…as for VIX, I don’t necessarily see the correlation. Not sure that I feel better about this now…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Shocking! 😉

  • Yoda

    Try Putin

  • Tomcat

    Need to be a career politician to try that

  • Yoda

    or work for the MSM 😉

  • Yoda

    I am kind of surprised that the tape doesn’t price in for a higher risk of Klingon losing the election

  • OJuice

    Looks like high yield is pricing it in. Just hasn’t found its way to the indicies yet maybe…

  • ridingwaves

    Juicy ID on spx if it remains here, Friday high and lows nice looking stops dependent your bet

  • ridingwaves

    Crude has almost given back all gains from opec output announcement, see candle 9/28…

  • Yoda

    Some folks see a Dec. hike as BS.

    http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

    Probability of hike is higher today compared to yesterday’s. Hmm. Curious to see what it says tomorrow

  • Mark Shinnick

    Ok, so closed just-below the Mc Summ zeroline.

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    yes, it is. Lovely Morning.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    /NG got punished. Mole, did you get stopped out? Thinking of taking a long dabble here, small pos

  • Yoda
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    LOL – I don’t think we’ll see a real hike (more than just a few bsps) before the end of the decade.

  • Yoda

    Japan redux

  • Mark Shinnick

    Heaven help us when the grip isn’t quite strong and leverage enough …hate to see those green flashes just scooting like crazy away into the dark ;/

  • Tomcat

    My stop is just under 2.95 and hanging on by a thread as you can see…Oil appears to be reversing…because of some pipeline catching fire???

  • Billabong

    GC – nice 2.5% move since your entry point.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I think you guys are going to enjoy this one – new long term momo update!