Happy New (Jewish) Year!
Welcome to the year 5773. William Gibson almost nailed it in Neuromancer – evil corporations rule the world and most of us are jacked into the matrix. Unfortunately we neither have flying cars nor cyber sex, which perhaps would at least make up for some of the former.
Seriously now- it’s the second day of Rosh Hashanah (Jewish New Year) and thus the tape remains to be pretty muted. I’m glad that some of you hardcore ratlings showed up for work – don’t worry I won’t tell your rabbi. I actually read up a little on the Jewish calendar and find it fascinating that it’s based on the lunar cycle instead of the solar one. Apparently Jewish law appears to state that Rosh Hashanah is to be celebrated for two days, due to the difficulty of determining the date of the new moon. I wonder if we could map market turning points to major Jewish holidays Chris Carolan style – if you know his work then you know that he’s all over that lunar calendar.
So our inside day on crude got taken to the cleaners yesterday. We are currently slightly below this daily NLSL (the tape moved a bit since I took the snapshot) and if we close the day below then we have a bonafide short entry.
On the daily we see dual support being threatened. First there’s the NLSL and then there’s also the 25-day SMA. Should both give then I think we may be dropping quite a bit lower.
A quick reminder that we are also at the 100-week AND 25-month SMA. So let’s settle on the 94 mark as our proverbial LT line in the sand. That would also be the lower 25-day BB line and a breach of all that support is an opportunity I won’t let slip through my fingers. Of course this also makes for excellent bounce territory. Depending where you take your entry you can play this either way – I think I have provided sufficient context to place your stops but in a pinch 92 or 93 would do fine if you decide to go for a bounce here.
ZN futures gave us a nice long entry yesterday morning. Odds are you probably missed it but we are now testing the 100-hour SMA which I think may make for a good reload or second opportunity to be long. Only trouble here is that it’s dropping a bit too fast for my taste, so decide on your stop and stick with it! Remember, you can’t grab ’em all – never worry about missing an entry and keep it clean.
Ole’ bucky gave us a great ID entry yesterday. If you snoozed that one then watch for a 100-hour SMA breach today or tomorrow. May be your second chance. Frankly I really hope we’re seeing a bit of a counter move here as I’m going to L.A. soon and the exchange rate is killing me right now. Fortunately I kept a stash of Dollars at hand but still.
Now before we get to the setups a quick peek at the spoos.We did get our ID day entry yesterday albeit it wasn’t as juicy as I had hoped when I put it on the board as we moved a bit lower. In any case we are now right at the 100-hour SMA and that will be the first test. If the bears can’t drop it below 1450 then they frankly don’t deserve this prime opportunity.
More where that came from – please step into my lair:
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USD/CHF – unfortunately we have a busted ID entry. But don’t lose all hope just yet as we may get a decent entry at the 100-hour SMA. Not ideal but we are looking at possible downside support here, so assuming we get there it may be worth a few lottery tickets.
NZD/USD – right at the 100-hour SMA. As we just hit some daily resistance I am waiting for that SMA breach. It’s been trying but thus far unsuccessful. However, I also don’t see much buying interest right now so perhaps we are getting that entry today or tomorrow.
Cable – juicy inside day + NR4 – the dot below means it’s also the lowest volume in the past four days. Obviously we are waiting for a breach of the low here – I am not interested in a long position.
And that is the reason why – we are outside the 100-day Bollinger and are painting a small range ID + NR4. Frankly this are the kind of setups I dream of. Let’s hope we get that short breach tomorrow.
EUR/USD – this is the best setup I can come up with here. I was hoping for an ID yesterday but we did get a possible exhaustion candle. That is good, and I would consider a loss of the 100-h SMA a decent entry. Let’s take if we get it.
AUD/USD – touching double support – there’s the 25-day SMA plus a NLSL. Should produce some buying interest – if not then it’s a short opportunity.
AUD/JPY – at the 25-day SMA and testing its 100-hour SMA as well. I want to be long here with a stop below that SMA. If she breaches then I would not take a short position as there’s too much support lurking below. Not impossible it’ll drop through all that but I prefer to go for the easy setups. Trading is difficult as it is – no sense in making things more complicated, right?
Copper – another ID that bit the dust yesterday. So let’s try this one more time, shall we?
Cotton – interesting formation. It’s wedged between two daily SMAs and a NLBL. Whatever side wins will probably be handsomely rewarded. So keep an eye on this one, I think we are getting close.