Apparently the Thanksgiving correction I anticipated quickly devolved into an obligatory shake out followed by a bounce. Obviously you won’t hear me complain as I’m still holding my long positions since ES 2013.75. Given that participation is bound to dry up quickly after lunch today I suggest you limit your exposure and instead attend to planning your respective holiday weekends.
After seven consecutive years of meager holiday dinners for the few surviving bears I wonder how long the current stew of QE madness is going to keep us treading in place. Most likely we will finish this year near where we started it. Last December we closed the yearly candle at SPX 2058.90 – and almost eleven months later we are now trading at 2089.14 – a measly 39 handles higher. That’s about 3 1/2 handles per month. The bear is getting tired of being slowly roasted and at some point he will emerge from hibernation to exact his well deserved revenge.
Here is the view at the spoos this morning and what stands out is the 100-hour BB which is now starting to get squeezed tightly. Given the lack of participation this potentially invites volatility and quick stop runs, so if you intend on holding through the holidays then set your trails at a respectable distance to avoid some of the noise.
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Alright, that’s it for me for this week. The NYSE will only be open for a half session and close early at 1:00pm Eastern. I don’t expect any of you to be around for that and neither will yours truly as I think I deserve a few relaxing days without staring at charts. My next post will be on Monday morning.
Until then here’s me wishing you the happiness of good friends, the joy of a happy family, and some appreciation of the spoils as well as the tough lessons we managed to extract during a rather difficult trading year. Have a magical Thanksgiving!