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Hate To Be Right

Hate To Be Right

by The MoleJanuary 26, 2011

Don’t get me wrong, despite having been a lone voice in the blogosphere as of late I do very much enjoy the fact that I was pointing up while everyone else was pointing down. And a lesser market megalomaniac would be temped to harp on that fact and attempt to belittle more frequently trafficked but continuously wrong trading blogs.

Rather, I have to admit that I hated to be right on this one – nothing would have pleased me more than a healthy market correction that would have allowed us to get positioned after a good ole’ fashioned pig shake out.

Our resident Evil Speculator market technician (shown above) is now getting a bit more cautious despite all that buoyant POMO cash abound. Although he’s not too worried about a major slide right now we could be facing a correction sometime in February:
Charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

We could see a bit of resistance once we hit the 61.8% extension of the first ride up – that would be around the 1306 mark. If we breach that I’d get cautious starting 1335 and into 1345.

That copper divergence is also becoming more pronounced, which is strange considering that old bucky is still getting taken to the woodshed.

Bottom Line:

I really don’t have much confidence either way, but the trend is the trend and as long as the tape steams higher I am not going to engage in undue top calling. But I wanted to caution you guys a little – it’s probably best to reduce position sizes at this point. We’ve had a good ride and you the old saying:

Bulls make money, bears make money (sometimes), pigs get slaughtered.




About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Onorio

    What`s a correction please?

  • Joe_Jones

    That's what you get when you've been a bad rat.

  • BobbyLow

    Cautious is my middle name. 🙂

    The only thing I can do besides staying out completely is trade the numbers. Keep my positions manageable, respect my stops, use the Bernie Pyramid Calculator and keep things as mechanical as possible.

  • ultra

    SPX non, FX et metalliques oui

  • amokta

    Who is that in front of the greenboard – why the long face!

    Anyway, should we be talking in terms of a 'longterm top' or is that just foolish talk?
    Atilla the Hun says has gone longterm short

  • molecool

    SNORT!!! 🙂

  • molecool

    Let me guess – parents were hippies?

  • BobbyLow

    Mole: “Gold miners – ugh – the ugliest group ever to trade. I don't touch it.”

    And I shouldn't have either. GDX has beat me enough times in the past that I should have stayed away from it. OTOH, I've had many years of success trading the Integrated Oilers XLE as well as Tech ETF's. What I'm probably going to do is try to get it down to just following three or four Sector ETF's and sticking with them. Even Trading only 1 or 2 Sectors might not be all that bad.

    In the mean time until I get settled, I've set R at a 1/2 of 1% so I don't get hurt to badly. I don't mind fucking around with these positions because I believe that eventually I'll latch on to a great pyramid that will make all this experimentation worthwhile. At least that's the plan. 🙂

  • BobbyLow

    Nah, but I would have been a hippie if I hadn't got married (the first time) in 1967 and began raising a family right after getting out of the US Air Force. It's funny how time and years can change a person's views. I'm much more of a hippie right now than I ever was back then in the sense that my level of trust in the Powers to Be has never been so low.

    But at the same time, I realize that I am as powerless over the Powers to Be as I am the Stock Market. 🙂

  • convictscott

    Its pure muppet talk. The evidence is mixed. We have sentiment levels at an extreme that would ordinarily signify a long term top. BUT the fed is determined to drive the market up, and evidence is that this is working.

    What will tell us EVERYTHING is the form of the next pullback. If its a sloppy hard fought to the downside affair, with each level defended grimly, then we will know that long is the correct direction.

  • gsavli

    I think you're right. If any correction wants to be serious, it has to be vicious.

  • amokta


  • Rick

    Using the candlestick on UCO, is it practical to set a buy order in at one tick above today's high? I was watching for a spike low and then an up day after that to set a buy order one tick above the up day. However today set a new low as well. I'm wondering if this is not a good trading set up or it is. Thanks in advance for any guidance.