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Heavy Metal Friday
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Heavy Metal Friday

by The MoleAugust 14, 2015

The Eurogroup meeting is starting in a few minutes and I hope that it won’t blow too many of my setups out of the water. I’m already seeing a lot of talk of why Draghi may jawbone the Euro down, which is why I’m glad that I made several runs to the ATM over the past few days (meaning a short squeeze may be coming).

2015-08-14_gold_briefing

Anyway it looks like it’s going to be a heavy metal Friday folks! Gold is back down for a bit of mean reversion and I’m liking it long here.

2015-08-14_silver_briefing

Similarly silver may be a long here – I’m taking out a teeny weeny position with a stop below 15.250.

2015-08-14_EURUSD_briefing

So yes, the Euro may drop lower today but in general I think the Forex specs are trying to call Draghi’s bluff. I am short a small position but expect to be long here at the 100-hour SMA or 1.118 – whatever touches first.

But we’re just getting warmed up. I’ve dug up the motherlode on the Forex side this morning – and I got futures goodies as well. Please meet me in the lair for more:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Anthony Morrow

    mole you mind kick starting the zero please mine is not loading? ty

  • RonnieH

    Same with me, thanks

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Oooops – on it!!!

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Screenloader crashed overnight. Sorry!

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    This is going to get interesting….

  • Skynard

    Watch the fakeout and the hourly.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    There he is! The real Skynard wouldn’t miss out on this!!

  • newbfxtrader
  • Skynard

    Don’t miss much:)

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Two touches means nothing.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Scalpius killing it again today 🙂

  • Skynard

    Volitile trade coming

  • newbfxtrader

    Trendline? Dont care. Price only. Took out previous low and reversed. Only thing I care about is price.

  • newbfxtrader

    Is there stats on trendlines? Havent used them recently. Thinking more on the lines of Scotts recent post. Kiwi looking like his Aussie chart. Oil may be setting up for a bear market rally etc…

  • Skynard

    VIX primmed for a move, bears are attemping to take this tape and that includes me:) Hehehe

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Wait until you see the white of their eyes!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1csr0dxalpI

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Oh screw that – this is how you do it:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1OyH9_7pg-8

  • Skynard

    Seen it already, have been short.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    A bit early for my taste. Need to see a bit more tape on the Zero.

  • Skynard

    Market has been tracking the dollar step for step. Currently short /DX, /ES and long /6N, /QM

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Stats on trend lines – boy that would be tough as it’s all context specific. When I draw trend lines I make sure that there is sufficient accompanying context. A trend line by itself is pretty weak technical support/resistance unless it’s got at least 4 touches.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    It’s the Forex dog’s waggy tail.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    VWAP has to go…

  • Skynard

    For sure, all over that MOFO:)

  • Skynard

    /ES to test that support @ 2074. Carefull with longs today, if that support is lont we are going lower.

  • Skynard

    Everybody at the beach?

  • Billabong

    Not yet….

  • Billabong

    What’s price action on oil telling you? I’ve had had 10 buy and sell daily signals in the last 24 trading days. No real wicks or tails. It’s like a battle between buyers and sellers with the sellers having a slight edge. My only saving grace after two entry attempts was having a large PM miners position (closed out yesterday) as an offset.

  • Ronebadger

    Present…go a small long position going since SPX 2083

  • Skynard

    My indication is that the bottom struck AH yesterday in futures. Look at that candle, should leave shorts in the dust today. Killed longs yesterday, we are long

  • Skynard

    Spike and div 5 min.

  • Billabong

    6:12pm … mighty long candle. Hit 41.35 and never looked back….

  • tristan37

    another spike with 5min div

  • ridingwaves

    The bio sector was the brunt of the selloff and is now finding lots of buyers stepping in…my 2 cents

  • Ronebadger

    sounds more like a nickel’s worth

  • Skynard

    ZL 5 min declining signal at res. Night

  • Ronebadger

    … at “res.” ?

  • ridingwaves

    damn, inflation strikes again…CPI adjusted though it’s .03

  • Skynard

    Market at resistance again Bro.

  • Skynard

    FN bust some shorts:)

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Looking more bullish here….

  • Billabong

    Looks like another attempt underway to break through ES 2085 (HOD).

  • Skynard

    Needs to bust a nut or else…………………suffer the Skynard:)

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Important to not over trade here. Not worthy this late in the session.

  • ridingwaves

    I’m buying select beaten up symbols now that they sheared the sheep…

  • Skynard

    EOD selloff looming, ZL is bearish to me. Huge div the entire session.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Not seeing anything bearish yet…

  • Billabong

    Individual issues or ETFs?

  • ridingwaves

    Ind..
    JUNK hit an area/low not seen since 2011…

  • Ronebadger

    Now we’re getting somewhere…all we need to do is clear SPX 2093 now

  • randomuser6789

    Did anyone see CL go under $40 this afternoon?

  • hellbent

    FXCM’s USOIL CFD did. Down from 42 one minute and back up the next. Futures?

  • hellbent

    This was supposed to go earlier when Sky asked if we were at the beach… Beach metal!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0FA1Z8plyk

  • Scott Phillips

    The big guy in this scene (Nathan Jones) held the national powerlifting records in Australia until I took them off him two months ago!

  • Scott Phillips

    Can’t build stats on subjective things. Also the more touches the more relevant the trendline.

    The better your trading gets the less attention you pay to them unless they are very clear

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Rammstein never gets old.

  • newbfxtrader

    You are a beast!

  • hellbent

    Getting there slowly with NT and starting to like. Condition Builder is the duck’s nuts, eh what?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Soooo coool! 🙂

  • hellbent
  • mugabe

    Risk is like a chameleon that changes depending on the environment. There’s never going to be an easy way to completely rid your portfolio of risk. It simply morphs into other forms.

    http://awealthofcommonsense.com/a-false-sense-of-security/

  • mugabe

    One of the key parts on having a valid strategy and sticking to it is that the investor has to have confidence in the system. Some of this comes from experience but it also requires sufficient research (theoretical and empirical) to come up with a strategy that we can stick with.

    http://abnormalreturns.com/2015/08/07/easier-said-that-done/

  • hellbent

    Good articles. Doesn’t it beg the question though: At what point in the drawdown do we acknowledge that a ‘risk event’ is actually occurring? I guess we just hit the flatten button at the at the appropriate mark, assuming that it works, and wait for more information to come in..

  • hellbent

    “Never be surprised that you’re surprised by the markets” (awealthofcommonsense.com)

  • Scott Phillips

    Doesn’t matter what the point is, nor its cause.

    It matters that you have PLANNED FOR IT, IN WRITING, BEFORE STARTING TO TRADE.

    It also matters that you have the cojones to follow through, and not try and “make it back” like a sucker.

    A typical business plan (as opposed to a trading system) might say

    “R value is 1.5% until 10% drawdown, then lowered to 1%. R is lowered to .5% at 20% drawdown and trading is stopped at 25% drawdown. At 25% drawdown I will paper trade until rolling 50 trade expectancy rises to >.2”

  • hellbent

    Risk management vs risk analysis. Makes sense to me.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ( ) ( (
    ( ) ) ( ( /( ) ) ( ) ) * )
    ( ) (()/( ( ) )())(()/( ) (()/(` ) /(
    )((_) /(_))) ((((_)( |((_) /(_))((((_)( /(_))( )(_))
    ((_)_ (_)) ((_) ) _ ) |_ ((_)(_))_| ) _ ) (_)) (_(_())
    | _ )| _ | __|(_)_(_)| |/ / | |_ (_)_(_)/ __||_ _|
    | _ | /| _| / _ ‘ < | __| / _ __ | |
    |___/|_|_|___|/_/ _ _|_ |_| /_/ _ |___/ |_|

  • hellbent

    Dug this paper up which might be of some value. He seems to go tragically of the rails along the way but makes some good analysis to start with.

    http://alphapowertrading.com/papers/FixedFraction.pdf

    Especially pertinent is the detriment of increasing R% value. On the face of it our fixed fractional position sizing system will do us in if we get much beyond the 1 – 1.5 % commonly touted.