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Hickory Dickory Dock.
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Hickory Dickory Dock.

by The MoleMarch 15, 2010

by gmak

Here is a link to my post – which I put up early late last night. I am quite proud of this post and don’t want it to be missed, or mythed, if you want to say it with a lisp. THis is what happens when your beverage of choice isn’t de-caf as you expected.

https://evilspeculator.com/?p=14880

Here is a link to Mole’s subsequent post which is important in how it theorizes that there is AN ENDING to the current bear trap, in the works.

https://evilspeculator.com/?p=14897

Finish the rhyme. “The clock struck one”. Don’t be the one.

EQUITY

Read my last post first.

Asia is totally red, except for Japan. As we know, publiclly admitting that you’re going to thrash the currency is bullish for stocks. Europe is red – and the breadth is quite good. Around 75% of stocks are down. The DAX coninues a mild channel down from the Friday close. Ultimate support if the current level lets go (it is red after all) is around 5900. The breadth down is not convincing. Two sectors are solidl green (consumer staples and utilities). Health care keeps flipping between just green and just red. Info Tech is around 50% green, 50% red.

ES sold off about 5 points when Asia opened and pretty much stayed there all night, except for when Europe opened. I’m assuming that Daylight Savings Time is in effect there as well. There was probably some news aroun 4AM DST that gave the little pop up near the highs of the night. Since then ES has settled below the S1 pivot. For ESM0

  • R2: 1157 = Same old, same old. Trying to take SPX back above that January High. This is OPEX, but SPX has failed to close up there. There isn’t any retail money or mutual fund money rushing in to push it over the top.
  • R1: 1151.75 = Same story here.
  • Neutral: 1146.75 = This was the peak on Friday at the close. Rebuffed, SPX is sulking below. There is a short term TD resistance point at 1145.50 – which was around the high point of the night.
  • S1:Β  1141.75 = ES fell below this and the 9 and 34 pMA crossed bearish on the 5 minute chart. It was underthrown earlier in the night. IF ES doesn’t get back above here before the open, then there could be selling pressure and Monday on OPEX will go against the historic trend.
  • S2: 1137 = A decent support level if SPX falls more at the open, and there is no interim move up. This was around the support levels from Thursday and Friday of last week. Breaking this would suggest more of a pullback.

FX

EUR fell with ES last night – but it fell a lot further after ES caught a bid. There is a greater volatility in EUR than SPX, it seems, so be aware of this if you are playing any possible correlation. Check out what I wrote about the EUR under “Is the trend your friend” section in last night’s post.

The daily chart shows EUR pulling back without testing the 50% FIB. It looks like someone threw a rock up and no one caught it. I’ve got overhead resistance at 1.3745 at the neutral pivot, and TD resistance at 1.3756 if EUR gets past the pivot. I’m hard pressed to see any bid under the EUR at the moment. I will say that there was some stop running at 5AM – but no follow through action. It’s like everyone is waiting for somehting to happen.

EUR is threatening to go below the magical 1.37 level. It looks like there is no one buying after the stops were tripped to go below 1.3720. The German gov;t says that there won’t be a decision on Greece aid today, and you know how the markets hate uncertainty.

I hear that the magical number for the CAD is around 1.0155. If you go short the CAD, put your stop below that. (the higher the price, the weaker the CAD, the stronger the USD).

NEWS

A lot of news about how Real Estate and Commercial Mortgage Debt are stronger. The FED is using the last of its TALF , TAF, QE, etc money to give the illusion of returning prosperity.

It’s OPEX week, which is the US market’s version of Hallowe’en. Expect to see the woman seeking attention wearing some wispy thing, and the guy in the beard dressed as a women.

DATA

As I mentioned in laste night’s late post, today is Empire mfg, Industrial Prodution, Capacity utilization, and TIC flows. These are important numbers in that the values suggest some slight weakness. Look for green shoots if, for some reason, they are higher than expected.

Β 

That’s about it, except I’m tired and cranky. I think that any civilization that insists on having a ridiculous out-moded practice such as Daylight Savings Time is doomed to fail from irrationality. It saves neither daylight nor time, nor money, and puts peoples lives at greater riskΒ  – as shown time and time again by the increase in accidents at this time.

It was wonderful getting up at an early hour and seeing the sun. Now, I feel as though something has been taken away from me.

Rats.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • gatopeich

    Thanks for the heads up.

    Regarding this: “Look for green shoots if, for some reason, they are higher than expected.” Somehow I *know* they will be higher than expected. Been happening consistently for a while and I can't think of a reason for that to change.

    E.g. Today's quarterly loss of 347000 jobs in Europe was “better than expected” (http://imarketnews.com/?q=node/10221). Everything better than expected, no matter what you expect.

    Let's get real and buy this dip! (sic)

  • gmak

    Sure. you buy the dip. I'll bring beer and chips.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Gmak, if I understood Mole correctly, Zero is showing that the bear trap we've been experiencing may be ending.

  • tradejane

    Thanks gmak. No daylight savings in CET yet, they're due on the 28th. In the meanwhile we will enjoy the opportunity of ending the workday at 9 pm instead of 10.

  • gmak

    Thanks. You mean that the bears have finally chewed their leg off to get away? πŸ™‚

  • gmak

    Seriously, though: there are conflicting signs as to what is going on. I agree that the moves up are weakening and breadth is falling. SO far the Jan. high is holding, but I hesitate to draw any conclusions during OPEX.

  • gmak

    On Thursday, most of the remaining TAF slosh money matured and didn't get rolled over There is only $3 billion left. And no one noticed.

    http://www.gmtfo.com/reporeader/OMOps.aspx

  • gmak

    But it's better than having a life, right? πŸ™‚

  • gmak

    Let's hope that this link continues to work. It is intermittent. But notice that the TED spread is starting to turn up – indicating tightening conditions are beginning in the credit markets. Liquidity must be slowly drying up (lousy pun).

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=

  • labdude

    Thanks gmak for your hard work.

    Would you please check the link–as I get an “invalid security .TEDSP……”” error.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Conflicting signs . . . yeah, definitely . . . that's why I haven't entered a trade since March 3rd.

  • gmak

    This is one of the mysteries. The link works fine on my computer but not when I post it here.

  • gatopeich

    It is because the “:” is getting replaced by “%3A”. Try this: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=

  • gmak

    With you on our side, how can we lose?

  • gmak

    Gatopeich says to try this link. It seems to work fine.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=

  • labdude

    Thanks to BOTH of you–I have a few minutes to study–then need to get to work.

    Have a good day all.

  • http://crisismaven.wordpress.com/ CrisisMaven

    “civilization that insists on having … Daylight Savings Time”. Well, it actually all started in Germany during the First World War and the waypeople used their lights and heating back then it actually may have saved some energy, not lives though, as that energy saving would have prolonged the war necessarily. It was reactivated by most states only during the oil crisis in the seventies without taking into account that all it can do is save some electricity consumption if people switch lights on less due to daylight. But: how much is LIGHTING as a fraction of overall electricity consumption? Then: what is OIL produced electricity as a fraction of overall ENERGY consumption? The whole scheme is ludicrous and it costs more in accidents than it could every save even if all the light came drectly from oil.

  • gatopeich

    Lose we can!

    But meanwhile I am having beer and watching DAX draw the exact candle my stats told but I didn't want to see.

  • tradejane

    Well, it certainly beats working the second shift at a factory, doesn't it.

  • gatopeich

    Two shifts? Lazy workers!

  • AudioTactics

    “Here is a link to Mole’s subsequent post which is important in how it theorizes that there is a bear trap in the works.”

    Can you fix that? It should read that an end to the bear trap is in the works…

    Cheers for all your hard work! πŸ˜‰

  • gmak

    The change has been made. RBW pointed it out earlier, as well, but I've been a tad busy.

    Just need to refresh to see it.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    I think you maybe had it right first time around but time will tell.

  • gmak

    Yes, but my opinion doesn't matter. I just wanted to report the fact, ma'am. heh.

    I do see weakness in each wave thrown at 1150+ and the FED is running out of programs this month……. But this is OPEX and should be taken with a grain of salt for a week.

    I wish this were next week, then I could be less tentative in my approach to the market.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Mole has a bearish divergence and a bullish count.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Yep, opinions are worth jack, and I have a rake of charts showing bearish divergences across the various NY market internals, but wouldn't be surprised to see us meander sideways this week.

    Like the cut of this guy's jib…

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/preparation-op

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    All bases covered then – arf

  • gatopeich

    Had a beer and it is looking like rant time for me ;).

    Topic: Spain ain't Greece.

    Good friend of mine just got a 'safe job' in the biggest Spanish corporation: the Government. For that he spent big time studying the structure of the Spanish and European institutions. Sharp guy so it is kind of a privilege to have him explain the inners and the loopholes he found. And I just got the details on how we are not like Greece. Long story short:
    * Two layers of government, a central one and many peripherical ones ('Autonomies').
    * Central gov. retrieves taxes, Autonomies spend them (80% of budget).
    * Central gov. has to comply with Europe, Autonomies don't give a damn.

    And here comes the funny point, one that few people are aware of:

    * There is a 2-year delay in the flow of money from Spanish central gov. to the Autonomies. So in 2009 they got their chunk from 2007, alas the biggest one in history. And this year they are expecting another big chunk from 2008. Furthermore, they already spent it.

    Conclusion: Spain's deficit cannot be fixed without rebuilding the country's structure from scratch. Guess what that takes?

    * * *
    Of course this is not relevant to today's market action, it is just the kind of thing I can't keep to myself ;-).

    Of course thes

  • gmak

    Yes, That was a good report Simple, basic, and with a solid idea of what might happen in various sectors. Good comment!

  • bobthehorse

    Not only that but you can no longer get financing for a project in Spain even with a guarantee of funding from the local authority. The Spanish Banks know there is no more federal money and they won't lend against it.

  • bobthehorse

    So will you get short at 1090 next week?

  • gmak

    heh. IF the worm turns that way, I'll be short before. BUt until then, it's only intra-day – mainly in EUR.

    If I miss it, I doubt that I'll short just for the sake of it. I'll sit back and look for an entry, continuing with the intra-day thing, including ES.

  • gatopeich

    LOL! I was going to quote a paragraph, then two, then I just can recommend reading it complete, for the laughs and the tips.

  • gatopeich

    You tell me! I was told yesterday by my government-funded customer that the payment they promised last week will probably have to wait until April. I just joined the fastest growing club in Spain: those waiting for payment for more than one month.

  • gatopeich

    “I’d like someone to explain to me how trading a credit default swap on a U.S. Treasury note isn’t gambling. This is purely betting on crowd behavior β€” after all, nobody really thinks the U.S. will default.” http://trueslant.com/matttaibbi/2010/03/09/shor

    This guy cracks me up!

  • gmak

    TIC data came in at 19.1 bb vs 47.5 expected for January. rut-roh. Market yawns. Total NET TIC flows were NEGATIVE 33.4 vs positive 80/9 previous (which was revised down to 53.6).

    rut-roh again, and the market yawns. Old news I guess. Who cares if the foreign money is drying up. It's not like the US has a lot of debt to fund anyway….. wait a minute. No wonder the Directs are so big and active lately. lol.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Yeah I know – “time to think like a criminal” – classic

  • gatopeich

    Wow, there was hardly a blip around that 'news'. I will refrain myself now πŸ˜›

  • bobthehorse

    Just saw this:

    http://www.businessinsider.com/apple-wal-mart-a

    These types of 'sense-check' arguments are some of the best ways to make money on a reasonable time-frame. No help for trading of course but Apple looks a pretty decent short to me. The Demark count is a bit mixed, i.e. it has competing counts vs. recent 13's on the longer term charts so you can;t discount a final high in about 3 months but overall, I would be a seller. 6 to 12m puts at 80% would prob be the best way to play this

  • Gold_Gerb

    [APPL capitalization is ] “Enough to buy HP, Dell and Hitachi, with mad money left over for Xerox or Seagate”.

    yeah but your see..”this time it is different”.
    ;-D

  • Schwerepunkt

    Going to Toronto for a couple days. With my luck, P3 will begin while I'm looking around the King Tut exhibit and seeing my brother-in-law's restaurant/bar for the first time. Happy trading rats.

  • skynard

    MACD bullish cross today on VXN!

  • AlohaBear

    Aloha from Maui 3.48 am extra strong coffee today

  • skynard

    VIX not confirming this move, good place to short IMO.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    An endindmy ass it seems – gap being filled on the ES.

    This is way beyond capitulation – the market is running on cruise control.

  • randomwalker

    Watching xlf, iyr and xrt for market direction..all overbought and about to head down IMO
    iyr – Crisis? What crisis?

  • rosocecasita

    Is it possible to see how many lurkers are here mole?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Former is short term and may only be good for a few days. The latter is indecisive and I need to see the tape for a few days before making a decision.

    At least I'm not proposing P3 is just around the corner like some other analysts πŸ™‚

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Can a girl be indecisive for a day or two? I need to see the follow through first. Anyone who suggests I mislead people better hold their tongue otherwise the plug gets pulled. This tape is annoying enough without you rats ponying fingers.

  • skynard

    Nice long red bar would be a welcomed sight and confirn a trend change on many bearish patterns which have set up.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Unfortunately that's difficult. But my subscription numbers are way down, even for the Zero and Geronimo – both of which have been doing well. So I CAN tell you that a lot of retail traders have washed out in the past six months.

  • randomwalker

    Just me.

  • Gold_Gerb

    can't speak to financials, but energy got whacked.

  • rosocecasita

    Figures that there isn't an easy way with Disqus.

    I lurk, most of the time if I open my mouth, I'm setting myself up to be wrong =)

  • rosocecasita

    Just wanted to say thank you for the hard work you put in here =)

  • rosocecasita

    *sacrifices chickens*

    O-Market-Gods-Of-Old: When will there be a down market & up gold day?

  • gmak

    You're welcome. I find that it's a good bunch of knowledgeable people here, and that I'm just one among many – certainly a lesser light given some of the experience that I see coming to the fore.

  • Cypherd

    Just got off the line w/ TDAmeritrade. Apparently they're having trouble locating short shares for DRN, so I like many others, was forced to cover my shares this morning. The most frustrating part is that Interactive B. has 1m+ shares available to short right now of DRN.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Easy to be an analyst these days – just say that the market is going to melt up and you'll be correct over 80% of the time πŸ˜‰

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Well – you got screwed – change your broker. But don't get angry – get even – use a synthetic short position πŸ™‚

  • jack_in_the_game

    mole, do you advertise anywhere? google adwords or anything? few subscription site owners I know are also at 30% of 2-year ago levels

  • rosocecasita

    You know I still miss the Up/Down/-> / ? Market predictor at the top of the page =)

  • Cypherd

    Coincidentally enough, I got a fill on some Mar 50 IYR Puts as it was hitting the morning highs, so that's off setting the DRN shares that were covered, some what heh. I've been meaning to move my money over to IB for some time but had been putting it off for a while because of the number of positions i've held for months. Will probably make the switch this summer, finally.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I'm not at all anxious to short, but I am working on a P3 detection indicator.

  • rosocecasita

    Comeon, a break below 1141 isn't a big deal.. I mean, it's only the 100 Week EMA… it won't become resistance, I swear!

  • rosocecasita

    Isn't that the HindyOmen?

    http://docs.google.com/View?id=dd6gf48g_40gr6dbvfc

    At the bottom, you can see manually calc it.

  • vasiltrade

    Hi all….hope you had nice weekend! At the moment im happy that hold my shorts in sp….hope will continiue to be happy-))

  • gsavli

    pump is pumping, I think. NQ is just too high considering some of the nasdaq leaders.

  • raised_by_wolves

    This is a great collection of charts.

    HindyOmen = 10 MA crossing below 23 EMA on $NYA, eh?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    no brain, just pain, but just letting you know that I support you 200%, when I did hamster time (maybe in a couple of days I get back) It was always sharing whatI saw, everyone is bound to make his/her own homework and make his/her choices accordingly.

    If someone points a finger… just bite it off!

  • http://twitter.com/Scrillhog Scrillhog

    Oh, we noticed….

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    just a comment, my fast stochastic is at 0, my slow at 1%, a bounce here seems mandatory… 1148 anyone?

  • rosocecasita

    A Hindenburg Omen is actually all 4 conditions at the same time:

    Hindenburg Omen:

    NYA -> 10 MA is positive.
    McClellan is Negative
    New 52 Week Highs Must be > 2.2%
    New 52 Week Lows Must be > 2.2% and > NYHGH value.

    The theory goes that a 'significant' part of the market should not be making new highs & new lows at the same time. While a Hindenburg Omen doesn't mean a crash is about to happen, there hasn't been a crash without a HindyOmen.

    The are also good for months, There where 2 different Omens one in 2007 & 2008 I believe.

    Now that we've cleared the 'bottom' of the market, it will be much easier to get above the 2.2% new lows to generate another omen. – Guessing about 2-3 months out before an omen.

  • alessiov

    divergence – accumulation of shorts?

    http://screencast.com/t/OTQwZWM5MW

  • rosocecasita

    So at the bottom of that page is all 4 indicators you need to read to 'manually' generate an omen, 1 for NYSE & 1 for NASDAQ.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I don't think so…. just look

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg_Omen

  • cramar

    Here we are at 1,144 again! Sheesh!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    hindy omens have to be confirmed to be valid

  • alessiov

    delta divergence tip off – http://screencast.com/t/NGMwMmUzZ

  • rosocecasita

    What is the conformation criteria? I did not know about this

  • skynard

    Now we need to take out 19.34 VIX to get this started.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Thanks!

  • alessiov

    long inventory clusters since feb lows

    http://screencast.com/t/ZmFiOGU5MDYt

  • skynard

    Could you explain please.

  • Cypherd

    IYR is looking really weak right now.

  • amokta

    Ok, so we dropped a few handles – BIG deal??
    (just asking the question!)

  • gatopeich

    Are those the price*volumes for non-intraday (long) operations on /ES?
    How do you interpret them?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Hmm, watching for the Hindenberg Omen would make long-term investing a whole lot easier.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Hmm, watching for the Hindenberg Omen would make long-term investing a whole lot easier.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    just check the wikipedia entry πŸ˜‰

  • rosocecasita

    Very much so; I'm more interested in preventing losses then making gains.

    Because of the spectacular group of people here, I keep my losses close to nothing though 2007-8-9.

    I also have shit for gains. I'll take that trade everytime.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I had browsed some time ago and had that idea, sorry not being much help lately…. personal problems…

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    as you all know the numbers I post are ma's, subject to evolution, currently 1147

  • alessiov

    Displays the total volume traded at each price, regardless of
    whether it was bid or ask. This is helpful in

    showing where large volume occurs (inventory)
    Know at which prices the largest traders area comfortable trading at.
    See pockets of liquidity (supply). These provide potential support and resistance points.

  • alessiov

    yes. see response to skynard below

  • skynard

    OK, that is helpfull.Thanks!

  • skynard

    Seems like the bulls were caught off guard today being Mutual Fund Monday and all. The day is still early, I know.

  • Gold_Gerb

    Six days my tail trapped in a rat trap, what a relief to get out.
    Dam that theta burn!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    all those who took my long sugestion @1142 might want to drop it, the fast stochastic was broken twice but rebroken to the down side

  • ricebowl

    Agreed.

    However, it seems to me that with everyone in the world expecting a rally to 1230+, perhaps we will turn here? I mean, what are the chances that Abbey Cohen announces a 1250 target and then sells all the way up?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    rebroke to the downside, this is interesting

  • vasiltrade

    Die pig….dieeee….

  • skynard

    You always say that, HEHEHEHEHEHE:-)

  • bobthehorse

    FWIW am still short, not looking to cover anything until 1125 on ESM0.

  • Gold_Gerb

    I don't count anything out, expiry week.
    I take graceful exits at a loss, because the alternative can be worse, a bigger loss on a “hold” because of ego.

  • vasiltrade

    my traders friends used to say this word 2007 when meaning dax….i took it and i say it now for sp…lol

  • gatopeich

    I'm with you. But Thursday I might get scared. something happened to me on a Thursday, can't remember what :-P.

  • gatopeich

    BTW, don't know what's holding DAX over 5900. According to my data there was relatively little volume traded between 5875 and 5900 during the last 6 months. http://img20.imageshack.us/img20/5272/jshotc.png

    I guess it is just a psycological barrier on a round number.

  • skynard

    rammstein says exit!

  • gsavli

    is this wave 2 now?

  • vasiltrade

    if dax brake 5900 nowwhat will push tomorow the markets down????oeoooooo???? -P

  • ricebowl

    How well has Rammstein done since Jan. 15? Any idea?

  • skynard

    Can't give a an accurate %, although it has beenusefull for swings. In's back on! Long

  • skynard

    Can say that today has been the most active for sometime, must be OPX.

  • Gold_Gerb

    Hey cramar.. 1144 again.
    πŸ˜‰

  • http://www.portfoliotilt.com PortfolioTilt

    Last week, the Transports broke out to a new primary trend high, a price confirmation that is very bullish for the long term prospects of this bull market. The Industrials are slightly lagging, but this is acceptable as a simultaneous breakout in prices between the two indices is not required. http://bit.ly/dixtwA

  • tradejane

    I guess it is just a psycological barrier on a round number.

    That and 5900 is today's S2 number. Oh, and the level of complacency is simply amazing. There's been some chart damage however. It breached an hourly support for the first time since March the 1st.

    5935-5950 is the new resistance area while the next support is now seen at the 5800s area.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    close to down or liftoff, waiting confirmation

  • Gold_Gerb

    Yep. watch the Industrial Averages.
    http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wood/2010/
    it's all about the averages.

  • ricebowl

    I was going to sell my puts out this morning at SPX 1141.90 and switch into calls. I wish I had. I was looking to buy the 115 March SPY strike at $63. Bid is now $72.

  • http://www.portfoliotilt.com PortfolioTilt

    Exactly, nice update at that link too. I am not concerned about the non-confirmation. It is rarely a simultaneous motion, sometimes we lag weeks-months.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    short setup seems ok right now, if 1145 breached turns dangerous (specialy on rocket mode)

  • tradejane

    Agreed. 1140.5 on ES “should” cap it, next target being 1134.00.

    What do you think of gold/dollar being up today while everything else (even bonds!) are down.

  • Onorio

    Im shorting this bounce!

    I miss shorting bounces instead of buying dips….

  • cramar

    And yet again…1144. I'm getting paranoid!

  • amokta

    Has anyone spotted the Lesser-speckled P3 today, even with binoculars?

    I need to see 20,30,40 handles dropping to get excited these days.

  • ricebowl

    Viagra can help.

  • vasiltrade

    lol

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    see my previous hamster times, haven't updated but euro was 1.13 bound and gold 1219 (with a minimum 1134 target)if i recall correctly

  • amokta

    Yes, I was thinking that myself!
    Anyway, is it a case of buy the dips, or sell the bounce?? (or indeed both, but best if one is with the trend, as less risk)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    right now that is the million dollar question… what's the trend? while 1141 and 1136 hold I' keep my money on UP

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    The Zero completely nailed today's little reversal.

    Please respond with yay or nay if you saw last night's post and were able to act on it.

  • gatopeich

    What bounce? look at the 10-mins chart, it is a straight line (of complacency).
    I just hope this does not end up like last 'Turdsday'… Watch out at “after US lunch time”!

  • skynard

    Lower bars on DJI,SPX & Q's past 3-4 day's so should be testing 1140-1138 by EOD IMO.

  • gatopeich

    Yay, I saw your post and was able to sit on my hands ;-).

  • Gold_Gerb

    I'm a loyalist, of course I saw it!
    act? my tail was trapped.

  • roncofooddehydrator

    I saw last night's post, it made me feel better about being in all short already from Friday morning. Had I not already been short I would have acted on it.

  • Onorio

    yay

  • Onorio

    this shit look alot like a (ii) of iii….but….

  • cramar

    Broken clock is right. Every time I go away and come back it shows the same time. 1144. Somebody please change the battery.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    nay, soul dead here

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    saw the post…was already short..!

  • Cypherd

    Saw the post, was already short. But I am building some near the money put positions to set up some conservative spreads for April.

  • alessiov

    lots of buying in last 30 min at high of bar (no breakout)

  • Onorio

    here we go…(iii) of iii

  • AudioTactics

    When are they (Dodd etc.) going to take accountability for the mess they created?

    Probably never and the finger pointing continues…

  • skynard

    That sure would F allot of people, yes?

  • Onorio

    yay πŸ™‚

  • Gold_Gerb

    F – $13.40
    (no current position)
    πŸ˜‰

  • skynard

    Ok, wake up ya.

  • AlohaBear

    AIG up $2 IN FIVE MINUTES

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Following some PPT waving (same that gave 1047 bottom) expect a sudden drop to 1136 and then a rise (headfake) to 1141 and then new drop too 1121.

    Then a rise to 1136 and it will be the moment of recognition IMHO, drops from there we're good for the ride, if it rises say hello to 1230

    Mole, can you see a count that fits?

  • ricebowl

    I wouldn't get too excited over a few points. The (iii) is a minuette wave or something along those lines. AFAIK the previous count is unchanged if we drop from our new 52-week high of 1153, so we'd be in (iii) of iii of 1.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I saw last night's post and would have acted on it if the reversal had been more significant. Looking at $SPX/$VIX, there wasn't even a retest of this squiggle today:

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • gsavli

    it's done that before. 4 points in 15 mins on 10th. But it was on open, so, kinda weird, yea.

  • AlohaBear

    Berkowitz buying

  • skynard

    What's that?

  • kirkor

    He has bought already…. now is momentum chasing…
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087

  • UayBalam

    yay

  • Gold_Gerb

    1150 this week?
    or does this just turn into a big cup-n-handle play?
    (yeah some guys don't like patterns).

  • sloth_bear

    Hi all,
    I juste wanted to share a little find regarding fib extensions:

    We almost touched the 100% extension from 666 low on SPX
    http://www.screencast.com/t/MTJiNzcyNz

    And we touched the 100% extension off the last mini rally on friday
    http://www.screencast.com/t/NjkyZjRhMmEt

    I hope it is usefull and I use them correctly! Feel free to correct me!

    Good luck with your trading and thanks Mole, Gmak and the whole clan!

  • PRSGuitars

    Nice man!

    You're describing an EW form of A=C (abc corrective, i hope – ha) where the two main legs of correction are equivalent in length.

    I still have one of your old 133 charts (or a chart you had that I applied 133 to) — nice work, buddy. Hope all is well (haven't seen you around in a bit).

  • amokta

    My fractal analysis suggests that the (double top) is in, if not today, then certainly by noon tomorrow.

  • Gold_Gerb

    You know it's bad when…

    You start seeing fractals.
    http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-BCF2_4B9E7C00.html

    If anyone has seen this before, don't throw produce, it jumped at me.

  • shortcover

    3pm ramp…broken clock time…

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    yes predictable! and boring..

  • Gold_Gerb

    Dude, we posted within 1 minute and both used the word fractal.
    what are the odds!
    we must be twins. or some universal harmonic thing.

  • Nightwind

    Good eye

  • Gold_Gerb

    I could use a 133 chart about now.
    waiter!
    πŸ˜‰

  • alessiov

    we could end up at lows at eod ridiculous buying at highs not much progress, well see

  • cramar

    As of Friday the S&P futures have closed up for 16 days in a row! Never seen anything like this before. When are we going to get a down close? Probably today finallyβ€”but only slightly. Wouldn't it be nice to have five nice down days in a row!

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    No sooner said than…

    I'll leave the US 133s to the master, but here's a UK one for shits & giggles

    http://content.screencast.com/users/ultrabear/f

    Nice spot on the fractal btw – gels well with any expectation of a run to the top of the expanding wedge channel

  • Nightwind

    I don't trade JNK, but it looks prime for a rollover.

  • Craven_Morehead

    ES 60min looked like a textbook bear flag…….and then boom……up it goes……..interesting

  • Gold_Gerb

    Thanks!
    does this mean we're going to (count on fingers) 1150+666 = 1816 ?!?

  • gsavli
  • Craven_Morehead

    NQ 60 min looks like a serious backtest of the lower trendline…….on the 5 min…….two distribution candles………should start selling now

  • Gold_Gerb

    I'm always joking around about the odds.
    So lemme help out a bit.
    2^16 assuming 50:50 odds, is 1:65,536 folks

  • sloth_bear

    Hi Guitars!
    I was not referencing to EW because I thought it was violating some rules (like now is not an ABC because we broke the previous top (if I understand correctly I'm only starting to read Prechter πŸ™‚ ))

    Concerning your 133, they completely changed my life, I spend most of my free time studying them and found some very very interesting things about them, that i'm trying to theorize.

    To summarise, there is a possibility to spot in a channel, the price and time of a reversal using some tweaked fib fans and a 133, but the real discovery I made is the ability to find the slope of the next channel when the price touch two times the same boundary of a channel, confusing isn't it?
    As soon as I find a good way to create a tutorial on this I will share it here, maybe in a few days…

    Anyway, I'm very impressed and proud you remember me!

  • gatopeich

    Always during my karate time, so predictable it gets annoying.

  • Gold_Gerb

    He who knows not and knows not he knows not, He is a fool- Shun him. He who knows not and knows he knows not, He is simple- Teach him. He who knows and knows not he knows, He is asleep- Awaken him. He who knows and knows that he knows, He is wise- follow him.
    – Bruce Lee

  • shortcover

    embarrassing…

  • PRSGuitars

    I literally have a text file full of 133s — i will send it to you —
    screencaps/links to all of them. Your name is on there for a channel I
    saved of yours…

    link:
    http://www.screencast.com/users/prsguitars/fold

    Anyway, please let me know. I love hearing that people are chugging away on
    this independently — makes me hopeful I've helped out. Take care good
    slothbear… keep up your intensity (I too need to lock myself away to do a
    video tutorial on the 133, youtube would be a great medium if I could link
    people to an instructional video on how to do it concisely)

  • gatopeich

    More like we're going again to 1150, after falling 2% from (t)here in what will look like the mother of all crashes after so many days of +0,05%.

  • ricebowl

    Yes, but of course it's not 50:50 odds. I don't know what the ratio of down days is to up days, but around August I observed approx. 80% up days and 20% down days. That means the probability is 0.8^16 or 2.8% — not nearly as bad.

  • dcgmo

    Still looks like a clear backtest on the DJIA at least:
    [IMG]http://i44.tinypic.com/6gihom.jpg[/IMG]
    http://tinypic.com/r/6gihom/5

  • PRSGuitars

    Bastards. 133 of 133 to downside (take red original channel, 133 it to underside, aka make a 33.3% extension… then 33.3% extension of the 133.3% channel you just created)… green dotted horror.

    http://screencast.com/t/ZDc2Y2ZjYWI

  • Gold_Gerb

    thank you for the clarification.
    I think it's time I canceled my bear union membership.
    πŸ˜‰

  • sloth_bear

    Yes! I would be very happy to have your text file!!
    I will also try to explain my find on a video with my sexy french accent, hehe…

  • Gold_Gerb

    that's just sick.
    this could go on a while. and look at the RSI, not even at 70.

  • Gold_Gerb

    I'm not a footsie fan, but it sure looks familiar!
    This gives me enough gist to have a plan ready for higher targets. [horrors!]
    thanks ultra.

  • BobbyLow

    Even when I was a blind bull back in 1999 – 2000, I remember during the super strong march onward and upward that at least one day per week there would be some kind of substantial pull back just to give the impression of the market being an honest game.

    But this crap must be testing the mettle of even the strongest Bear. I know it's testing mine.

    Part of me want's to just pack it in and say – “Take This Market and Shove It”. The other part of me is saying – OK, Mr. Market you Crooked SOB, you've got the money but I have the time.

    I still believe the Shit will hit the fan. Speaking of SHTF, over at ZH there is a you tube clip of this morning's Blow Up between Santelli and Liesman. It wouldn't surprise me to see Santelli removed because he dared to go after Liesman and one of the other Pumpers very, very hard and I'm glad that he did.

  • Gold_Gerb

    this?
    http://mediamatters.org/blog/201003150031

    [moderator – yank if needed]

  • PRSGuitars

    Just sent you the motherlode… ugh (crazy to look at how many I've screencapped and added to the list, and those are just the semi-decent ones). Enjoy your email/screencast scanning (for hours).

  • PRSGuitars

    LOL! Master… more like “the guy who looked outside and saw something glowing, shouted to everyone, and it turned out to be the moon”. I wish I could take more credit, but this is a discovery, not an invention (grrr, no patent for me…haha).

    Would you mind labeling the channel (and extension) in question? Like this (example) http://screencast.com/t/Yzc2ZWI5MG

  • randomwalker

    Yeah, I posted about that a week ago Friday, it projects to around 1170, 1st one to 1220-70.
    AAPL shoud be around $300 at that point, everyone in the univers owning an iDoojer

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    NP. You have my drift correctly tho.

  • PRSGuitars

    Was going to post something substantial, then I thought of this instead:

    http://www.inewidea.com/2010/01/22/18896.html

    Yup, just remember, it's “ideal for night blogging”. Rats, take heed… put minirats on your fingers and rave or blog late into the dusk.

  • amokta

    ewi stu:”Today's session did nothing to alter our expectation for a market decline to start this week. “

    -lets see if they are right, otherwise im going to sue them!

  • alessiov

    The market internals did not make it into positive territory, advance/decline ratios close at .73 on NYSE, .72 on NASDAQ. S&P Oscillator down to 6.48 from Friday's 8.25 NASDAQ volume hit a two-month low Monday

  • slickwilly

    One of these days Hockberg is going to get it right. They did make the call to get back in for the 50% retracement rally on the 18th or so of March. That was the only STU event that I used. The August “go short” call and the November “go double short” call caused me to cancel my subscription to EWI. As much as I want them to be correct, I can't see paying for a service that is guessing just like the rest of us. If you sue, I am sure we can start a class action suit being the dissed so many of us!!!

  • n2thezonez

    It was an odd reversal, given the metrics you mention. You can add to it that the VIX closed about 3% higher.

  • gmak

    A couple of quick things:

    1. there are stories floating around about a US invasion of Iran – based on some logistical / hardware type of evidence. All of that aside, if it did happen and gold spiked – would the USD go in the toilet, or would it be the currency for flight to quality?

    2. Odds of Close being lower than Open tomorrow are 50%. It's 43% of Close being higher than Open; and the rest if for “near each other”. It looks like the probabilities were properly weighted for today – although it was a long ride until the close got back above the open. Thank goodness for a lot of oil-related covering when the price of a bbl failed to get below some technical indicator.

    Cheers.

  • Gold_Gerb

    I need to get out MORE.
    oh, here's a perfect excuse!
    http://teaser-trailer.com/2009/09/wall-street-2

  • alessiov

    Friday's chart – initiated selling/distribution?

    http://screencast.com/t/ZDJkMGQwYWU

    Today's chart – responsive selling in the same area

    http://screencast.com/t/MmZmZWY1N

    seems like they r building short inventory (Interesting to note NYSE Down Volume over 50% last two sessions, signaling some distribution beneath the surface).

    Greatly appreciate comments/opinions.

    What r they doing, What r they setting up everyone else to do, What is their next move

  • alessiov

    they r up to something, just posted some charts

  • roncofooddehydrator

    SPY has had 12 up days in a row, that's the most since 1995. We're due for a drop, although it remains to be seen how much of a drop we'll get.

  • http://www.portfoliotilt.com PortfolioTilt

    The S&P 500 hit resistance at 1150 last week and is now pulling back. It's all about the trend channels at this point. Bottom line this overbought condition when viewing the 60 minute charts gets worked off by either going sideways or a pullback to trend channel support. http://bit.ly/deithJ

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    you guys getting more and more sophisticated every day…I am really losing you…I am an old fella…

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    oh…so you did not quit…good

  • http://www.portfoliotilt.com PortfolioTilt

    Lol no I did not end up quitting. I was never going to leave the game entirely, just take some time off to focus on the CMT Program. I am currently writing a weekly market update, instead of the daily analysis I was authoring in the past. A bit of a longer term perspective, a slightly different approach then before. Couple months and Ill be back to full time.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    And what are you going to sue them for? Being wrong? LOL πŸ™‚

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Out of the last 27 trading days only five closed down.

  • kirkor

    I am trying to understand your plots, is there some short description out there about it?

  • kirkor

    Usually time spend in preparation to the war and war itself is negative for equities and positive for USD, with sharp rebound in risk trade towards resolution of the war. In general such rumors (if true) would be supportive for US treasury bonds, negative for equities and positive for USD.

  • chronographics

    Hi its been a while since I used MKT Profile, but it certainly gives one great insight into the market internals.
    From the two days of charts you posted it certainly looks like distribution on Monday after the Friday range found fresh sellers at those higher levels.
    From the past few weeks price action it looks very much like a market being jerked up to be sold. Seen a bit of this in the old days in the FX market. These are big positions they run and the set up takes time so we should not be surprised to see the slow grind up. They will have an elaborate exit strategy planned so will be interesting to see what else moves when this cracks…
    Me I am going to keep it simple, wait for price action to confirm any indicator signals and wave count I have.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    bears are pussies – instead of kicking EWI asses – they talk about suing …OY VEY

  • Gold_Gerb

    Good Morning from yesterday rodents.
    I'm in the 133 camp for good.
    If only I had this “map” several months ago.
    It may not be a crystal ball, but it makes one heck of a map.
    SPY 133 – http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-3EA5_4B9F12E1.html

  • PRSGuitars

    Nice! So the uppermost hit is the 133? aka — is this correctly charted? That's a nice chart — very pleased to see it (and good work!).

    my version: http://screencast.com/t/YTAzOTg0YjEt

    Let me know if that's close (jing arrows/lines are awesome for 133-capping)

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Morning all looks like DAX ready for GAP up open again…if it can get above 5965 with conviction then night be a run at 6k and above…

  • bobthehorse

    It seems pretty clear the market is trading long gamma into expiry. That's why any intra-day volatility gets reversed into the close. So betting on a decline starting this week doesn't have the weight of facts on your side. Hasn't stopped EWI in the past.

    Current price action has all the hallmarks of theta burn – a killer for anyone with 1150 puts hoping for a turn. Personally, I am happy to run the short as I am short through futures so it's not costing me anything at the moment. Also (and I wouldn't take this to the bank), you sometimes get a very big move just before expiry following a period of going nowhere as holders of options capitulate just before expiry. Once that long gamma constraint is removed, the market can fall.

    Alternatively, we just go nowhere until next week.

  • gatopeich

    Goog morning!
    So we got another bear trap?
    Bob, what are you doing?

  • tywo

    have posted an update for the asx 200 for those interested. looks like the global markets are starting to rollover before the US.

    http://www.tradeyourwayout.com/2010/03/asx-30mi

  • bobthehorse

    Just waiting. More likely to be a bull trap than a bear trap.

  • tradejane

    Good morning,

    gap up indeed but not so sure about the run. There's a pretty grim evening star formation there. Even if it goes above that, there's still significant resistance in the 6030 area.

    I've been seeing some other weird movements as well…Bob may be right.

  • vasiltrade

    Good morning and for me and have a nice day all.Just something a friend had told me….the entry is full open…the exit is very small! KALIMERA!

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Yes 6015 6030 level was a level I was looking at for adding to my shorts..about 50 % right now..

  • tradejane

    In January the DAX continued to rally nearly 100 points after a similar formation on the daily, so if history repeats it self that could indeed be a good place to add.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Anybody got any views on this? A little off topic..was speaking to a friend in “real” estate in Spain..says that the banks are preparing to offload properties on their books by selling them AND at the same time offering the “buyer” a 100% mortgage…his words were “if you have a pulse ” you can qualify for the mortgage. Their logic? transfer properties off their book, which they have repossessed, plus they lend out (even if they have to repossess 2 years down line, that would put them back in the same position).. SOUNDS LIKE CREATIVE ACCOUNTING TO ME…and recipe for trouble down the line…anybody more knowledgeable can shed light on whether this is feasible/legal/ etc?

  • aussiebinlaughin

    Nothing quite like a war to distract the masses from their own wealth destruction! Gold would usually spike, but oil would probably also nuts. Iraq supposedly had WMDs. Maybe this is the wests version…its our WDD (Weapon of Deflationary Destruction) where they seek to get a huge spike in oil which might help actually cause some inflation. Without a war, oil could fall way back down, setting the scene for massive deflation. Ben wont allow that so we've been told. Im dont typically go for many conspiracys, but in this instance, any gov that can so irresponsibly destroy our ecomonic future, would not have any qualms about starting a war or two if if delayed, or gave them an excuse for financial armaggedon on thier own door step.

  • aussiebinlaughin

    Another form of stimulas to me, but it also depends on the will of the general population to buy. For example, in the current climate, is it cheaper to rent? Does the general public think prices are cheap and will be more expensive in 2 years? Id also imagine that the banks would need to charge a hefty interest rate on the higher % mortgages. So many other factors too. Are they discounting the price? If so, this is just another way to write down bad debt. Bigger question is, do you think it will really make any difference?

  • tradejane

    Deflation in Germany is so strong, that prices continue to drop weekly, despite car gas prices returning to their $150/barrel pre-crash levels. So much for high oil price = inflation.

    I don't know about the States or other countries but the only thing the Germans have successfully reflated so far is the DAX index and even remains to be seen. All I want is not to be on the wrong side of the trade when they finally figure out that one can't fill up a pierced balloon.

  • gatopeich

    Thanks all. Yesterday's action was too similar to that of Feb-25, and we all know what came after that. I am wary of a big manipulation effort behind the scenes… But anyway let's think like the criminal: few bears left to shoot, and many bulls, I know what would I shoot if I was a big hunter: all of them!
    So I got to my stats, which make feel better, and this is my candle shape prediction for today:

    * IBEX has 59% chance of a red candle, (closing below open).

    * DAX has only 7 historic cases of last two days action (lo-lo then mid-lo). Of them, 3 were big red candles, 2 were flat, 2 were quite green. Of them, 5 were down days but one was a +3% day :-P.

    * On SPX, the sequence mid-mid=>hi-hi happened some 37 times since 1987. Last one was 12-Feb-2009, a very flat day, and next day was a -1,5% mid-to-lo, (morning bounce then sink and close at bottom). And the day after a 5% was lost :-P. Won't spoil this with talk of the previous 36 cases ;-).

    Good luck!

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    yep no real inflation here..it seems that if economy is slow..people spend less on fuel..think twice about using both (or all three) cars at home! Maybe the high oil = high inflation only works when we are not in a “crisis”.. If anything high oil may deter people from spending on other things..adding to the deflationary scenario?

  • gatopeich

    I disagree: one can fill a pierced ballon, just keep filling it. It gets a bit different if you are filling it with liquid gold.

  • gatopeich

    I guess your friend read yesterday's Barclays statement about Spanish banks keeping 25.000 Million Euros 'worth' of real state in their balances, a 1000% yearly growth in many cases (cajas). That is, banks are hiding 2.5% of the nation's GDP at “mark to fantasy”… No news anyway :-).

    About easy loans, we got an unrequested letter from the bank offering a 40 year loan for buying a 'home', for anybody under 35. I guess they are probing us.

  • tradejane

    The high oil = high inflation only worked because it could.

    The economy was still functioning and the employment situation wasn't that bad. These days the majority is either un/underemployed or in some form of furlough or another… credit no longer as readily available.

    On top of this, it's hard not to notice the price decrease on a weekly basis. Many are putting off a purchase now, because they know it will be cheaper later.

    Oil remained fairly expensive during the last deflation too and that didn't help either.

  • gatopeich

    On the same track, the news today is that Spanish construction companies (real state 'developers') owe 445.000 Million Euros in loans to banks. That's well over 40% of the nation's GDP!. Those two sectors (banks, construction) leaded the last push up in Spanish stocks (~ +10%), if not caused it entirely on their own .
    Again, this is not news, the news is that it gets to the media. But so far only in Spanish: http://www.elmundo.es/accesible/elmundo/2010/03

  • aussiebinlaughin

    In the UK, due to a sinking pound, we might just get inflation sooner than expected. Especially given that we import everything and export very little outside financial services. We get to enjoy the happy prospect of falling house prices, rising taxes, rising interest rates, and rising inflation! The only Empire UK resides over now is the Empire of Debt.

  • vasiltrade

    Just watch the tape,nothing important,but this im watching im only afraid that they will close the door soon…probably im wrong but just i have this feeeling…

  • skynard

    Please explain what you mean.

  • gmak

    Thanks for taking the time to respond.Β  That makes perfect sense. But, if it is the USA engaging in the war – with the implicit threat of printing even more money – does this negate the “quality” aspect of the USD and force flight to other safe vehicles (I' don't know, say, the EUR, or gold, or land, or anything?)

    ________________________________

  • vasiltrade

    sideway move…now realy volume…suports have hold…almost the tape show us
    that we go to print new hi…just cant be hopful for the next days with this
    tape,maybe im wrong but wanted to mention it

  • vasiltrade

    from the other way the point is that we write new highs so
    no matter what im saying…the market is rite always!

  • bobthehorse

    A useful article with some links to good stuff:

    http://www.efinancialnews.com/story/2010-03-15/

  • bobthehorse
  • bobthehorse
  • bobthehorse

    Read all that lot and you'll get a pretty good grasp of what is going on

  • Nightwind

    Morning Bob, were you in the biz when Russia defaulted on its bonds? If yes, could you guys see it coming?

  • gatopeich

    Interesting readings, here is my fav of the day: “IS CHINA ABOUT TO LEAD US INTO A DOUBLE DIP?” http://pragcap.com/is-china-about-to-lead-us-in
    Bear food!

  • boycottnow

    the usa has a war based economy ….maybe they can start hiring the hispanics………iran is toast ……..

  • vasiltrade

    what is and ftse100 wrote new day low?

  • gmak

    Tick. Tock. Don't forget to read what Bob has link in his comments FIRST.

    https://evilspeculator.com/?p=14914#disqus_thread

    NEW POST
    NEW POST
    NEW POST
    NEW POST
    NEW POST
    NEW POST

  • bobthehorse

    yes and no. no one ever sees a sovereign default coming because they are so rare and there are so many other options, IMF bailout, currency devaluation, etc. A default is a political choice more than anything

  • gatopeich

    Hey, that's from Aug 2009! You post it for the laughs or what? πŸ™‚

  • alessiov

    greatly appreciate your comments chrono. thanks.

  • aussiebinlaughin

    In the UK, due to a sinking pound, we might just get inflation sooner than expected. Especially given that we import everything and export very little outside financial services. We get to enjoy the happy prospect of falling house prices, rising taxes, rising interest rates, and rising inflation! The only Empire UK resides over now is the Empire of Debt.

  • vasiltrade

    Just watch the tape,nothing important,but this im watching im only afraid that they will close the door soon…probably im wrong but just i have this feeeling…

  • skynard

    Please explain what you mean.

  • gmak

    Thanks for taking the time to respond.Β  That makes perfect sense. But, if it is the USA engaging in the war – with the implicit threat of printing even more money – does this negate the “quality” aspect of the USD and force flight to other safe vehicles (I' don't know, say, the EUR, or gold, or land, or anything?)

    ________________________________

  • vasiltrade

    sideway move…now realy volume…suports have hold…almost the tape show us
    that we go to print new hi…just cant be hopful for the next days with this
    tape,maybe im wrong but wanted to mention it

  • vasiltrade

    from the other way the point is that we write new highs so
    no matter what im saying…the market is rite always!

  • bobthehorse

    A useful article with some links to good stuff:

    http://www.efinancialnews.com/story/2010-03-15/

  • bobthehorse
  • bobthehorse
  • bobthehorse

    Read all that lot and you'll get a pretty good grasp of what is going on

  • Nightwind

    Morning Bob, were you in the biz when Russia defaulted on its bonds? If yes, could you guys see it coming?

  • gatopeich

    Interesting readings, here is my fav of the day: “IS CHINA ABOUT TO LEAD US INTO A DOUBLE DIP?” http://pragcap.com/is-china-about-to-lead-us-in
    Bear food!

  • boycottnow

    the usa has a war based economy ….maybe they can start hiring the hispanics………iran is toast ……..

  • vasiltrade

    what is and ftse100 wrote new day low?

  • gmak

    Tick. Tock. Don't forget to read what Bob has link in his comments FIRST.

    https://evilspeculator.com/?p=14914#disqus_thread

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  • bobthehorse

    yes and no. no one ever sees a sovereign default coming because they are so rare and there are so many other options, IMF bailout, currency devaluation, etc. A default is a political choice more than anything

  • gatopeich

    Hey, that's from Aug 2009! You post it for the laughs or what? πŸ™‚

  • alessiov

    greatly appreciate your comments chrono. thanks.