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How I learned to stop hating and love the Crypto
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How I learned to stop hating and love the Crypto

by ScottMarch 12, 2018

Ask… and ye shall receive.

Let’s talk about Cryptos. I know for a fact most of you hate these bastard offspring. And I used to as well… until I learned to stop hating and love crypto.

I was biased against them because I was sick of hearing about idiots making millions who don’t actually know how to trade.

But I’m sure you couldn’t possibly understand 😉

Systems for crypto’s have some unique challenges.

In no particular order

  • The exchanges all have different data
  • There isn’t enough data for a statistically significant backtest
  • Some of the exchanges are crooked as a 3 dollar bill
  • The “stable” coin Tether is an obvious multi-billion dollar ponzi scheme
  • For things with half a trillion dollar market cap, the markets are THIN. Read this https://medium.com/@bitfinexed/understanding-bogus-usd-crypto-currency-volume-why-you-should-disregard-fakeusd-prices-and-c0933c72e3e5
  • You have to decide whether to do your charting against BTC/ETH or USD
  • The crypto-idiots have fetishised “HODL”ing (an intentional misspelling of holding). Apparently ignoring stop losses and holding through 90% retracements is smart now.
  • Correlations are insane. Most days 90% of coins are up OR 90% of coins are down. This makes developing systems difficult.
  • Because you can’t trust the exchanges, you can’t usually use stops (eek)

Now despite those inherent problems it’s highly likely that you and I will never see a bull market as strong as this one.  I’ve been crushing it (even with the recent 75% across the board drop) and I’ve figured out a whole lot of stuff along the way.

So, let’s put our System Building caps on and start figuring out workarounds for these problems.

For the next few days I’ll be fleshing out the mechanics of the System Building Process as it applies to crypto.

Firstly. If the crypto bubble is popped/over… then every last one of these shitcoins is going to zero. And bitcoin will be back under $1000.

The implications of this are obvious. You can’t put more than 5 or 10% of net wealth in these things, since they are all the same basic trade. No way around it.

You must bank regular profits. Trailing stops give too much profit back on markets this volatile.

Secondly. The all on/all off nature of crypto means that you want to run for cover at the first sign of rain.

Thirdly. Because we haven’t got enough data to really make a backtest mean anything, discretionary systems are probably an obvious choice here.

Anyway… discuss amongst yourselves and I’ll flesh all this out over the coming days.

Right now, we have NQ breaking out while ES is still lagging. That sets us up for the LAST CHANCE for the bears when ES tests the old highs.

Make no mistake… if the ES and YM break to the upside, there are a lot of shorts who will have to cover.

The EURUSD really has my spidey sense tingling. Bucky has been catching a beatdown and we are at the kind of extreme which indicates the tide might turn here.

 Anyway… that’s all for today. Catch you again tomorrow.

Scott Phillips

 


About The Author
Scott

  • Julie

    Thanks Scott !
    JULIE

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    Hopefully we can convince Mole to step away from his screen for a minute 😉

  • Julie

    The chief needs a break .It will be good for him . Recharge the batteries.
    JULIE

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    I strongly suspect he’s working his skinny ass to the bone. He’s a machine

  • TerpFan

    Thanks Scott! Really looking forward to this!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey guys – in case you missed it last night:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=brN9vP38yKY

    The audio was a bit over exposed, I’ll turn the input down a little next time. Per the quality comment – I used this mic:

    http://www.rode.com/microphones/videomicme

    It’s a small portable condenser mic and I personally like it. But if you guys prefer the sound of the Blue Yet I can buy that one of course. May save me some time sound editing with the equalizer.

  • Tomcat

    BL, reverted my Oil from L to S last night. So far it has worked.

  • Ian Naugler

    Don’t buy into the Tether FUD, it’s designed to scare people. There is ZERO evidence of any wrongdoing right now, and really if it does somehow turn out to be a scam it’s 2 billion which is a drop in the bucket to Bitcoin…altcoins however….
    I also don’t think you quite understand where hodler’s are coming from, we believe Bitcoin is a new monetary system. Thinking you’ll be able to trade these ups and downs and beat someone holding is foolish if it actually becomes a store of value. The percentage gains I’ve had in one year are unachievable through trading in and out in a lifetime. It will either change the world, or go to zero…there’s no in between for the worlds first truly unconfiscatible asset. I believe Bitcoin will be 1 million dollars one day, trade it if you want but I think this game is all about getting as much as you can while it’s affordable.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I appreciate your POV and there is a lot of truth in it. However you would agree that accumulating near the bottom of swings would have been a lot more effective than just buying it at e.g. $500 and holding it until now.

    Now reg. Tether – who knows. A lot of opinions on that topic and I myself am hesitant about it. But the sector is becoming more mature and Poloniex for example has fully embraced Tether so if enough money/interest backs it then it’ll survive no matter what anyone says.

    This is just like the dotcom boom – a lot of players are going to shake out and only the biggest ones are going to survive.

  • bluprint

    discretionary systems are probably an obvious choice here.

    What does this mean? What is a “discretionary trading system” and what is the alternative?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You must be new here…

  • bluprint

    I have a fundamentally different POV. I think crypto and competitive currencies are the future. There *won’t* be only one, and probably for several good reasons.

    I think in the future “money” becomes as common as O2 and we find ever more ways to monetize productivity in a comparatively “decentralized” way, in contrast to the current model in which money is a monopoly and systems of production, banking and our whole economy force productivity through a funnel where only a small portion goes back to the worker in the form of money. In this new model, money is created at the point of productivity, rather than created into the pocket of a banker.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    And here’s the resolution of what happened after I posted the #bitcoin video last night (copied below):

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3937589b8c7228c438bd876e095538a954b8fb2719c0d75a8649753a7dc74dbd.png

    Just as ordered.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Bitcoin is now transitioning into a break out candidate.

  • Mary

    There is money …

    and there is value …

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Not only one but most likely a handful of the big ones are going to survive. Which ones is as tough to predict as it was to predict which car company in 1900 would still be around twenty years later. And yes, it’s most definitely the future.

  • bluprint

    If you don’t consider Tether to be a good alternative to USD, then the only way to “sell” your crypto is to literally move it off the exchange. (or use an exchange which doesn’t use tether, in which case the risk is just transferred to a different fiduciary).

    Also, there is some notion that if Bitcoin replaces the USD (or fiat in general), then its value explodes irrespective of “trading”, which I think is generally the mentally among “HODLERS”, that is: “I have no business trading but this thing may grow in value for FUNDAMENTAL reasons that in the long run will play out greater than any immediate price speculation bubble.”

  • BobbyLow

    That was probably a good move TC. If I was trading /CL, I would have gone short at $61.79 following the close of the 4:00 AM 30 Minute Candle. (if I was awake :)) However, because I’m trading an ETF, my rules are in sync with the price action during NYSE trading hours – 9:30 AM to 4:30 PM. My ETF rules still call for a Long as of this moment and my stop is currently set at a -.37R Loss. It looks like I’m probably going to get stopped out but it’s not there yet. I’m not relying on hopium or anything like this. It’s just that I have firm rules and conditions that have to be met before entries and exits and my rule for exit hasn’t occurred yet. I’ll be joining you on the short side if and when I get stopped.

  • bluprint

    Ok I get it. You mean as compared to your programmatic systems? Hence the references to backtesting…

    So, “discretionary” would be like when I was watching that formation before you did the video and I was thinking “This looks like a “buy range” that Scott was referring…”

    I’ve been reading this blog since 09 or so. lol

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • bluprint

    I just went to this link https://evilspeculator.com/discretionary-trading/

    I see the problem now. I only have two monitors.

  • BobbyLow

    Step right up ladies and gentlemen! Cash in your 401K and go all in the Bit Coin Way!

    Just kiddin folks. 🙂

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Tomcat

    I hear you, one of the reasons why I prefer trading futures is the extra trading hours. Stocks/etf/etns you are limited

  • bluprint

    Yeah, money is only ever a derivative of whatever thing is the “real value”.

    Money is essentially an abstraction of value. Money is also a service that allows for abstraction, storage and transfer of value.

    Part of my point is that crypto is simply better money. One might not know which car “wins” in 20 years, but it can’t be hard to see that fiat money is the “horse and buggy” and crypto is the “car” in this analogy.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    your comments go back 8 years to 2010.
    He checks out Captain.
    😉

    “I am a practicing Christian and member of a Southern Baptist church in the heart of the Bible belt. I smoke daily and find cannabis to be a relaxing aid to my time in worship, Bible study and prayer.”

  • bluprint

    lol. still true…but I can’t imagine why that came up. :/

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I pick the ‘colorful’ comments. he he.

  • Ian Naugler

    Only if it’s trustless, remember Bitcoin is the only such system. All other blockchains are extremely centralized and really no different than believing/hoping in the fed’s monetary policy. This is what makes Bitcoin the most secure blockchain, all others can be rolled back without warning just like Ethereum and the DAO. Vitalik bailed out his friends and has created the moral hazard that Bitcoin does away with.

  • bluprint

    ” all others can be rolled back without warning just like Ethereum and the DAO”

    I’m not sure how you come to this conclusion. I think this is technically inaccurate. BCC and BTC for example are almost identical tech. Same with LItecoin. BTC is special in that it is the first, but the tech can be replicated.

  • bluprint

    You’re right. 09 I was finishing up grad school. I started here in 2010.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    61.8%
    4 Hr candles.
    Where’s Julie?, Hawaii is 5am. She should be up by now.
    😉

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e26e57686e0b844809afabe90f821f56740c93292d3f1f6209fb33b90f13c8ad.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Welcome.
    You have some catching up to do.
    200 comments is a bit light.

    Big Congrats to Me – I just passed 30,000!

  • HD

    GM all. What a weekend to be an a Arizona Wildcat!!!

    BTC, from failed moves come fast moves.

    On the 5 minute, using Moles chart-upper right, there is an easy set up hitting 80% accurate. MA crossover, the previous candle will keep you objective. $100 is a trade. Sometimes they run for $500.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • HD
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    let’s just stop the World, let’s face it, nobody is going to get anything done.

    https://athlonsports.com/sites/athlonsports.com/files/shared/misc/March_Madness_Meme4.png

  • ridingwaves

    spx back testing the breakout of 2780 area

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Floyd

    yes, I agree. what about ltc, or dgb, or vtc. dgb has the longest blockchain there is and is much more decentralized than btc.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    hehe

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m starting to feel old now.

  • HD

    Mole, nice job on the YouTube vid. The voice, the accent, hide your women fellas.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    “dgb has the longest blockchain”

    That doesn’t mean a great deal but it’s a nice sound-bite.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I guess the BTC trending phase has been postponed until further notice.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    SNORT – maybe during my bachelor days in Los Angeles. Those times are long behind me fellas so your women are safe as houses.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    She’s probably got better things to do – for her sake I hope she does.

  • HD
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    IF we see a tested spike low near 9300 it’s a buy.

  • Richard Adler
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Okay I bite Richard – until recently however it’s been producing a series of lower highs and lower lows. I think that is being currently challenged but obviously nothing in crypto at the moment goes over easy. Big shake out phase as more experienced players have entered the exchanges.

  • BKXtoZERO

    it was nice to finally hear your voice! I was a little disappointed though…. I was expecting more something more GOD like. Perhaps writing your trading rules by fire into stone and talking like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CoFSpoAbXLc Now that I know you are human I may take some trades against you again.

  • Ian Naugler

    Anyone can fork the technology, the point is it’s not just about the technology. You need a development team, game theory that secures the chain, decentralization and a 0 trust system. No other coin has the development team that Bitcoin has, they are leaders in cryptography, security and freedom visionaries. DGB is a scam, litecoin is a cheap knockoff that has 0 innovation he copy pasted Bitcoins code and changed the issuance rate and inflation. Ethereum doesn’t even have a limited supply its running at about 6% inflation right now with empty promises from the Ethereum foundation that they will change it (sure they will) I’m not interested in putting a cent into a blockchain that can be rollled back by 5 people, which is exactly what happened and why Ethereum classic exists…they disagreed with the rollback and continued with the original chain. Not to mention the other problems with Ethereum and their hype coin…no scaling, blockchain bloat (with no fix in sight) Proof of stake fork which miners will not go along with i.e.: another fork of Ethereum and on and on and on. All other coins have marketing departments and you need to ask yourself why that is and why Bitcoin DOESNT have one

  • bluprint

    I “went back to school” b/c I thought I wanted to be an accountant. Now, I’m technically a CPA but earn my dough building marketing databases and I’m a software dev by trade. And now bitcoin…

    Anyway by “started here” I mean I read your stuff enough to make me feel smart enough to not really need an actual “system” or “rules”, then proceeded to lose more money than I care to discuss in Forex.

    Gave up on trading. Got into BTC last year – software, mining, etc. Now I find myself with some crypto and having trouble managing it – and almost a decade older maybe I have the discipline now to be a trader – so I thought I should come back here and see if I got the chops to learn something. 🙂

  • Richard Adler

    Ay, aye cap’t

  • Tomcat

    ZeroHedge (the authors of this chart) and BTC are a match made in heaven…

  • Yoda

    LOL, what should I say.

  • Tomcat

    I think we have a few Dan(s) in this blog:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6iDZspbRMg

  • Tomcat

    Covered near $61. Back to cash for now well and S Gold from last week.

  • bluprint

    “I’m not interested in putting a cent into a blockchain that can be rollled back by 5 people”

    Then I guess you weren’t an early adopter? 😛

    With respect to the “freedom visionaries” – My take, and I’ve been pretty closely following the project since literally it was not much more than a whitepaper. (I remember having to compile very early version of the client and I remember thinking the tech is ahead of its time because I did understand the economics but I didn’t get what was about to happen with phones. I also remember thinking there is no way I’m going to keep up with this private key in case bitcoin is ever worth anything in a few years…)

    Anyway my point is that my take is the place changed. I was doing other things and consciously decided not to participate as a developer or directly with the tech, but I was watching and it USED to be different. I don’t know what happened, but last year I personally conclude that the behavior of that dev team follows what you would expect from people that either became ego-maniacs or were overly influenced by money or some other malevolent influence. Anyway, for that reason I decided last year to support BU as a developer. I’m still learning the software really and not contributing much ( I do have a commit to add some functionality) beyond testing and code review, but anyway my experience has been those guys have the spirit that used to reside in the bitcoin project back in the first years.

  • BobbyLow

    Yep. Wasn’t the previous thoughts over at ZH to load up on gold because after fiat died we would have to barter gold for food etc. So I guess we’ll have to use BTC instead of gold. I wonder if they still have the same bunch of happy people over at ZH?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Whenever I go slumming I recognize people from well over 5 years ago. So yeah there are a bunch of diehard ZHers who can’t get enough doom and gloom.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I for one cannot stand this guy…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    LOL – I’ll make sure to use a voice synth next time.

  • Darrell Osgood

    But Gold Gerb, if what you have to say doesn’t improve the silence… 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Actually I would be happy if I could sound half as manly as Charlton.

  • Tomcat

    I am sure it has to do with his political views, which I couldnt give a shit, but this episode who was recommended to me by a friend was hilarious and very relevant to the conversations happening below.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    BTW, this is what really happened:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ah-WdAwVg9c

    Okay now I’m going to stare at the ocean for a while. Great view as I’m sitting right on a cliff.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Some people just have a puncheable face, what can I say…

  • Tomcat

    Correct and they still hold that view as far I know. I have them in my feed because they are the quickest to report the weekly Oil numbers so I dont have to track this info down.

  • ridingwaves

    Tisk tisk, you mean zeroedge

  • Tomcat

    That would be more accurate

  • Floyd

    Yes, that is true. It is a nice sound-bite, but doesn’t mean a lot. What I mean by pointing this out is that there are other chains/coins that have been around for while that similar to btc haven’t been hacked and have a history of security. I think the decentralization is more important. I don’t like that btc is mined by only a few centralized mining companies. Also, the difficulty adjustment of btc is currently really slow and if china shutdown mining operations, the btc chain would be virtually stuck for a long time. Of course, this can be fixed by changes to the btc code.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Still the whole argument is comparatively Strawman. Gold has always come out a winner.

  • Tomcat

    I prefer kicks & elbows but to each his own

  • Yoda

    LOL

  • ridingwaves

    I think I’m going to call the vacation cops on you, your out of line…
    fuck the pc, enjoy the ocean….

  • BobbyLow

    Good one TC!

    I’m still Long Crude via OILU. Price came close to my stop earlier but it hasn’t been hit yet. My position might have weathered the storm but it’s barely hanging in there. Price has been a real tease in that I don’t care if I get stopped out or not but it’s price’s decision to stop me out not mine. 🙂 I have to be patient and let my system work. Friday’s gap is probably messing with my chart a little but I still have to follow my rules.

  • Julie

    Chief Have you thought about narrating Walt Disney documentaries.? Love the voice ! Have A Great Vacation Chief ! Thanks for the video
    JULIE

  • Tomcat

    I actually had a change of heart. Going long GC in anticipation of the CPI tomorrow which I expect will have a similar reaction to mid Feb.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Alright, I know when I’m not wanted. See you guys later 😉

  • ridingwaves

    ahhh now we have some action items behind the yield
    Corporate pension plans could become fully funded once the 10-year yield exceeds 3.0%, says Fundstrat’s Lee

  • Julie

    May re short USO The upper downtrend line shown on a previous chart had to close above. So far no cigar. 12.36 is crucial to hold
    JULIE

  • Tomcat

    what kinda fcked up vacation are you and Mole taking…

  • Julie

    Hi TC We are in Portland now and fly to Hawaii tomorrow. Laptop will not be used once in Hawaii. The weather in Portland is great Hope you are doing great TC
    JULIE

  • Tomcat

    Good to hear Julie. Hope you have a blast.

  • HD
  • Tomcat

    Lee is also a BTC bug aka HODL

  • BobbyLow

    Hey TC,

    I had to leave for physical therapy and held my long Crude with stop in place. I returned to find my position still open and at BE with the latest conditions qualifying me flip and go short. So I went short with OILD and closed out my long OILU. Even though I missed the earlier short, my system worked well and kept me out of an emotional sell for a loss and I’m pleased at that. We’ll see how far this new short goes and I’m wondering if we might get on a choppy train for awhile.

    GL with your GC

  • HD

    Hawaii, Spain, sheesh. Vegas was cool but I’m gonna join the cool kids and head to some beach somewhere for vacay again too. How far south do I need to go to find that sweet spot of no wifi but still tv to watch the NCAA tourney…..

  • Tomcat

    I am glad you got out unscathed. I am looking for an entry on the S side, but will likely wait to see what impact if any CPI has

  • ridingwaves

    South Pole…

  • Julie

    Hi BL USO I do not like the intraday reversal. 12.36 is important to hold. Below 12.28 and I be short
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Sounds good Julie. The markets will still be here when you get back.

    Have a great time! 🙂

  • BobbyLow

    Good point on the intra day reversal Julie. If it were to continue onward and upward enough tomorrow, I’ll have no problem flipping back to the long side. Because there’s not a lot of downward MOMO on this move, it won’t take a lot of upward movement for me to go the other way. I’m not picky. 🙂

  • Julie

    BL There is actually a descending triangle forming and could breakout either way. To the downside I have 11.71 as a target. That would be a nice short
    JULIE

  • Julie

    USO closes 12.37 and holds 12.36 support on an intraday reversal. Amazing
    JULIE

  • Julie

    I was going to mention on Thursday last week it was snowing in our front yard and the sun was shining in our back yard. We have a male cat (4 yrs old) and he did not know what the heck was going on. He went out the front door and immediately ran to the back yard.
    JULIE

  • Julie

    We have a dog too and he slept thru the whole thing
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    Spear spleen and liver, if he turns I’ll help myself to a kidney………..

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    I spent the better part of my adult life scamming and stealing.

    I absolutely positively guarantee Tether is a scam. I’ll bet anything you like on it.

    There is no other explanation. If YOU owned a multi billion dollar business where your employees could steal billions on any given day… you’d damn sure want it audited.

    The only possible reason for not auditing is because it CAN’T be audited.

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    For every Ford there is an Elmore
    For every Google, there is an Altavista

    The winners won’t appear for a few years yet IMO

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    Dude thats not true at all.

    Some of the other cryptos have AMAZING technical teams. As they should when there is billions of dollars of ICO money to spend.

    Bitcoin has market share, first mover advantage, and some other good points.

    Also some bad points and crippling weaknesses.

    It’s supposed to be this stick it to the man crypto anarchist future. But a HANDFUL of big miners control everything about it.

    Welcome to the future. New boss, same as the old boss.

    Please tell me again why some bitcoin mining conglomerate out of China sets better monetary policy than the ECB?

  • BobbyLow

    Anybody working today? 🙂

  • Tomcat

    Here here. How goes it?

  • Mary
  • BobbyLow

    Stopped on my Short Crude -.71 R. Flipped back to long. Been on a roll for a few weeks and expecting whipsaw for awhile but “one good trend pays for them all”.

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    Wow the silence. I am trying to get awake and then I am off to handle chores for a while. spx still trying to get past 2800???

  • BobbyLow

    EDIT: Changed to a Bull Spread using the actual ETFs. Probably should have stayed on the sidelines. A lot of indecision right now with price so I’m covering my ass.

  • BobbyLow

    And there she goes.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    not really. Company lunch today.
    Terror for a social introvert. Office politics anyone? yuck.

  • BobbyLow

    Stopped on Bull side for loss. Short side still open. Tip of my cap to Ms. Market this AM.

  • BobbyLow

    TC did you catch that short?

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    Definitely YUCK. The main reason that I chose to be a short term temporary accountant doing contract only work. I come in, clean up the mess and make everybody happy. And, then I am gone, off to the next challenge.

  • Tomcat

    no brother, have many projects at work that require my attention. I am all cash. closed gold as well with a tiny profit. seems like rex and cpi were the main culprits/excuses today

  • Tomcat

    Guess what type of payment is NOT accepted in one of the biggest BTC expos:
    https://www.eventbrite.com/e/mit-bitcoin-expo-2018-tickets-42412362518?aff=es2

    don’t try to hard it is BTC….

    long live the HODLs

  • BobbyLow

    Understood. Cash is a position too.

    I got whipsawed this morning before finally finding ending up being short again. The thing is that I have to follow my system. I would have been better off holding through my stop this morning. But my experience has been that once I go against my system and it works, I’ll do it again and again. Before long, I would no longer have a system and be back in disorganized mode trading like a fucktard. So nothing to do but stay the course and give a tip of my cap to Ms. Market. 🙂

  • Tomcat

    she can be a b*tch sometimes but she will come around

  • BobbyLow

    Yep

  • Tomcat

    BL do not forget the oil reports this afternoon and tmw.

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks. I usually don’t mind holding ETF’s through oil reports with the exception of Opec Meetings but I won’t open a new position on the morning of an EIA report.

    BTW, I’m in the process of performing a back test on /QM which is 1/2 the value of /CL. I’ve traded this future before but not under my present system. If I can make it work, I’ll be able to trade /QM Futures (that won’t make me pucker as much as /CL) in my regular trading account and stick with ETF’s in my other account that I can’t trade futures in. I have a long way to go with my /QM back test but so far so good.

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    Now, off to conquer my chore list.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    SERIOUSLY?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I have been told to go away so I’m sitting this one out 😛

  • Ian Naugler

    These are all common misconceptions so lets break them down point by point…Can you name 3 teams for me please that are building amazing technical products? 50% of ICO’s last year failed that rate will approach 100% because there is literally no incentive for them to build anything when all the money is granted up front…its a get rich quick off the hype of “blockchain” tech scheme. Most projects don’t even require a blockchain and are centrally controlled anyways.

    What are some of the crippling weaknesses of Bitcoin? What do the big miners control? What have they changed in the protocol? They attempted to stall SegWit but the majority of users initiated the soft fork and the miners fell in line, because thats all they can do (They created Bcash because of this…how has that worked out for them?). Competition is only just starting to ramp up with ASIC miners, Samsung is entering the space along with a dozen other companies…Bitmain and the “chinese miners” will lose market share drastically.

    If you believe the Miners set the Monetary policy you don’t quite understand Bitcoin…name one thing the miners have changed in the code? You can’t, because they can’t. Any fork they create is essentially an editable blockchain…do you know anyone who wants a chinese edited blockchain? I don’t. Id rather use my flag bucks here in the U.S.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Been shorting this last 20 min..see what happens.

  • ridingwaves

    could go all way back to 2741ish to fill gap?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Seems to measure to about there.

  • ridingwaves

    busy right now, is it opex this week ?

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Heh, yeah. Tiling a bathroom tub/shower. Missed all the fun again today.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    A discretionary system is where you have a system but that system gives you some limited flexibility.

    Example. Let’s say you traded head and shoulders patterns. Your job isn’t trying to pick market direction your new job is scanning for head and shoulders patterns.

    When you find one, if you think it’s a great h&s you take it, according to your system rules which tell you what position size, where to take partial profits and how to trail a stop.

    So you have flexibility, but not so much flexibility to be a fuckwit.

    Pros and cons. An algo will never be as good as an expert trader with his head in the game. But a pure mechanical system can work 24/7 and never make mistakes.

    Also you can’t backtest discretionary systems.

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    Icon, NEO, ADA all have world class technical teams. Many others, those are the first three that come to mind.

    Look. ICO’s raised about a billion dollars last year to buy programming talent.

    You really think they can’t afford to buy anyone they want now?

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    You couldn’t possibly be more wrong mate