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How It’s Done

by The MoleJanuary 15, 2019

I actually wasn’t planning on posting today but the current move in NG serves as a glaring reminder of why it (literally) pays to fade the daily onslaught of MSM or social media noise and to instead focus on meticulously following what we teach here. And to that effect to pay close attention when we lead by example. Unlike by the way the vast majority of top name ‘market analysts’ you’ll be coming across during your career as a trader. Others talk – we do.

Our ongoing natgas campaign is just one in a long and growing list of posts here that demonstrate how successful trading can be accomplished on a daily basis by almost anyone willing to play by the rules. No matter where you live, how you look like, how young/old you are, or where you come from.

I posted this one to my intrepid subs last week and it took a few days to get out of the gate. However true to form it finally blasted off and thus far has produced over 3R in ill-gotten gain. MFE was 4R and I just raised my trail to 3R to claim what’s rightfully mine, plus I’m holding an option on prima nocta with the fiancee of the poor shmuck holding the other side of this trade.

So what voodoo magic did I use to make this call?

WRONG QUESTION! We don’t make calls here at Evil Speculator, we don’t count waves, and we don’t read tealeaves either. What we DO here on a daily basis is to simply trade the tape in front of us based on time tested technical analysis that actually has a proven statistical edge, unlike magic turn dates or doomsday predictions dished out daily by the MSM.

Let’s travel back in time to the 10th when I suggested this as an entry to my subs. What are we looking at? The short term panel is pinched as hell, which for any symbol would suggest RV expansion. But wait – we are talking  nuttygas here, the fabled widow maker.

So we already know from years of experience that natgas has a tendency to run like a hare and loves to make tight turns. So this looks pretty interesting but the daily doesn’t, so do we skip? Maybe but let’s look at the LT panel:

Now here’s some technical context I can sink my teeth into. The support line on the weekly isn’t perfect but it’s acceptable plus there’s a stack of monthly Net-Line Sell Levels right below us. Both of which tells us that if it falls it’ll fall hard, but if it bounces it’ll probably go gangbusters.

This is what I said at the time:

Natgas has been pinched as tight as it gets on the hourly panel and I expect a sudden release in the near term future. Which has propelled me to grab a long position with an ISL < 2.875. If that one gets breached I would not want to be a NG producer as I can’t imagine how pumping it at those prices can be profitable.

Now for the record: this is not why I’m taking this entry, I’m going purely by my charts here. Clearly ‘impossible’ price drops happen all the time, just think of crude and how it has gone from threatening to touch the $100 mark in October of 2018 to touching 43 by Christmas.

No hyperbole here, no predictions. We call it as we see it without resorting to spurious predictions. In case you wonder – yes we cover all of our losers here as well, without fail. Keepin’ it real since August 2008 😉

And that, my dear ladies and leeches, is how it’s done.

Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses
yearning to become stone cold professional traders.
Your huddled masses yearning to live (debt) free,
The wretched refuse of your HR departments.
Send these, the intrepid, the truth-seeking to me,
And the scales of loss and despair shall fall from their eyes.”

This right there needs to be chiseled above the entrance to the evil lair.

 

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • StockTalker

    Squeeze

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • StockTalker

    /NQ needs a kick in the azz to get above 6650.

  • TimeToPanic

    Bought final lot of QQQ puts into this ramp, it’s now at the 50 day.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    Go Mole go, sure glad you were on my side, polar vortex up north is broke and now starting to push south to eastern half of naiton……yummmy

  • Sp00nman

    Nice call on NG sir mole! Important level here. A nice throw over the high and fail thus far for ES.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Sp00nman

    Russell has been weakest thus far today and never took out the high at the open. NQ obviously the strongest.

  • Ted

    Transports are even weaker. Crazy morning!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Sp00nman

    Yep thx.. financials weak as well not participating on that rally.

  • TimeToPanic

    NQ pop already fading. Netflix announced a subscription price increase, worth 1.5% to the NQ, heh, crazy.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    WOW!! That’s going to be the coldest winter of this decade, except that next year is probably going to be colder.

    You guys recall the Maunder Minimum? Which is not a theory but a fact – sun spot activity is falling rapidly and that’s affecting weather patterns globally. It’s going to get COLD in the next few decades.

    I better start eating…

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    2600 battle

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    What frustrates me a bit to be honest is that apparently nobody else took this entry. So hands up please – who did?

  • ridingwaves

    raises hand slowly…

  • ridingwaves

    JPM disaspointment…

  • Ladywandering

    I did. But small position because it is nutty

  • Sp00nman

    I took a small ung position. I appreciate the commodity setups. Would you consider adding to NG at a certain level?

  • TimeToPanic

    SPX I am watching 2616. That’s where C =A, also is the neckline for the H^S pattern.

  • werewolf

    I was short at 2585 with a stop at 2604. I am covering. Thinking of going long with a stop below 2580

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Sorry boss. I don’t trade NG.

  • werewolf

    zero indicating reasonable strengh unless I m mistaken

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Nope – you have to be really nimble and precise when it comes to Natgas.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Attagirl!!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Blast higher right out of the gate usually sets the tone for the day. A zero mark and VWAP retest is almost customary. I would fade all blue reversal signals today and hold long positions as long as we don’t see the signal close in minus territory more than 15 minutes or so.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1f349511c0c6fb2a49f35e9617f523d1b62898188d7c800af59cdd5405c65698.png

  • Jason13

    Closed euro and cable shorts…too much profit there not to cash in..keeping metals short which are holding up pretty well

  • werewolf

    thanks Mole. That s my humble reading as well, Was expecting a failed attempt at 2600 but was ready to cut if remaining above and reassessed based on zero#

  • Wave_surfer

    There is a big Brexit vote, right? How many hours until the big reveal?

  • StockTalker

    /NQ 4hr is bullish, biggy move coming. Broke through resistance, 7k next stop

  • TimeToPanic

    Lol, the RSI is heading lower for these past few days as price is rising. Wonder how many trapped bulls are praying it gets back to 6,900 to get out. Ain’t gonna happen.

  • TimeToPanic

    It’s interesting to watch someone typing away for nearly a minute, and then they don’t post the comment. Weird.

  • werewolf

    when we get there (if we do) they will believe 7000 is next….or go out and then regret maybe…

  • StockTalker

    Not going to short this market until we get a bulls response (Blow off).

  • TimeToPanic

    This is it today.

  • StockTalker

    This isn’t shit

  • TimeToPanic

    We’ll see. (technically, with a week-long RSI divergence, this is literally shit btw).

  • StockTalker

    OPX this week, more than likely short at the end of the week

  • Wave_surfer

    An hour and a half from now.
    The vote on 4 amendments will take 15 minutes each.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Added more to my TVIX position from yesterday 48.8, at 45.6

  • TimeToPanic

    Is that 2x short Vix?

  • BKXtoZERO

    2X long

  • TimeToPanic

    Ah, in that case, hail fellow bear. 😉

  • BKXtoZERO

    been waiting for 2600-2620 as my plan…. took a few stabs along the way but building position now.

  • TimeToPanic

    Well done, much better timing than me.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I was looking hard about a week ago but was thinking there may have been one more drop for insult and that I would have gone after.

  • BKXtoZERO

    well VIX gets slammed all the time so entering even at a zone that is a decent or even correct area, you still get the rough treatment.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Seriously? Why be long IV when the market is running up? Are you aware that IV drops 57% of the time ALONG with equities? You are trading against the wind.

  • HD

    Mole. Nice trade on nat gas!
    “Okay, do it again! And then again”

  • BKXtoZERO

    VIX can rip too (IF) you are right. which is the allure. I worked well last year. I guess I just don’t trust the bull here. I expect a retest or worse and am playing it as carefully as I can.

  • TimeToPanic

    Where is Julie, isn’t it time for her to come and give comfort to us bears?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    don’t forget, “the hourly is the most important.”
    {scoff}
    😉

  • TimeToPanic

    Even the hourly on NQ has an RSI divergence (and is at 78).

    If it’s 5 waves up from the lows, we’re now in w5, which could fail at any point.
    And I will mention again, Brexit vote this evening.

    The Feb 18 crash began 9 days after the new moon. We’re now 9 days past the new moon.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0bc40a49ec6d148ab22472e6371d5d667102639173b396d3ca30b93357f1c200.png
    Bears may not feel happy but so far the down trend is still intact..

  • BKXtoZERO

    and….. there is a new moon! (just kidding)

  • TimeToPanic

    True, and 6785 is the 50% fib of the high-low period.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I can’t speak to the moon.

    but those other two….can always let you down.

    correlation does not equal causation.
    winning streaks are not necessarily related to babies.
    https://www.khou.com/article/features/is-the-texans-winning-streak-linked-to-a-little-baby/285-614224780
    😉

  • TimeToPanic

    It’s customary in these parts to howl to the moon, not speak to it. I’m unsure of gerbils’ howling capacity though?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    lookup chirping prairie dog

  • TimeToPanic

    ECB not Draghing their heels over the dodgy banks in Europe:

    https://uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/monte-dei-paschi-shares-suspended-after-plunging-on-ecb-warning-1423444

    It’s almost like they want to upset the apple cart isn’t it?

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    DOW daily wedgie for bulls? Could be classic throw over – or will it kick off a new bull trend? https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c1f296fccf0cbab2ebde2ba8203365df8502195c03cdfc714ef74bd312a928a0.png

  • HD

    $SPX symmetry from the 2347 low is at 2616

    Interpret as you see fit.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Jason13

    Closed S&P longs…flat and wait and see..

  • TimeToPanic

    As Julie’s not here, I’ll say ‘HD, I posted 2616 as a level, see below’.

    Tis true, I did.

  • TimeToPanic

    Well played.

  • Jason13

    LMAO…wow perfect impression there TTP.,

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Wow TTP, hitting below the belt.
    ouch.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Volume is POOP!

  • TimeToPanic

    All just good fun, I really value Julie’s posts here, hope she’s OK today.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Sorry to break it to you, but none of that stuff works, mate. Why don’t you run some statistics instead?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I WILL! 🙂

    Thanks mate.

  • Goldenbeachbum

    VIX curve finally normalized. First time since beginning of October. Not talking about actual value and levels which constitute bull or bear, just the fact the front month is now lowest priced after weeks of inversion.
    http://vixcentral.com/

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    UNG Taking profits hit my 28 – 29 target SPX up .44% for the week Hang in there Bears. C = A @2617
    JULIE

  • TimeToPanic

    I follow a guy on youtube who pretty much only trades on RSI and PPI divergences Mole, and they do work very well. Obviously not 100% of the time, but he does very well. As for the waves, it’s just a guide, not predictive. I’ve shown moon phase correlations before, so I’ll keep an eye on it.

  • TimeToPanic

    Do not look at (or touch) what the Trannies are doing today. Urgh, disgusting.
    Snack time, then gym again, upper body tonight, no ache from Sunday’s lifting.
    FUCK THE EU is my closing message for this comment.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Getting very close to a vol downside objecting in my lens.

  • BKXtoZERO

    She was killing it on the way down and had a “probe” = initial entry, she is fine

  • BKXtoZERO

    There you are!

  • Mark Shinnick

    Nice way to see this objective…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi BK A ton of work this a.m
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    2617…..(wait for it)

    See Below

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I don’t touch trannies, mate.

  • TimeToPanic

    Client of mine, bit of a lad in his late 60s, almost had one of those encounters you hear about in Thailand, but the ‘lady’ revealed her hidden secret before anything happened. Sad, but true.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi GG BA is stalling BAC watching 26,93 (could go higher)
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I told you many times, SnP & BAC are welded, no, FUSED at the hip.

  • TimeToPanic

    Nice curves.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Nothing works 100% of the time, TTP. All you need is 60% or higher. MR systems actually have a solid edge and high win rate. Winners are small but pretty consistent.

    As per the waves, I know exactly what’s bouncing around your head mate. You have been anchored into counting and now everything looks like a wave pattern to you. Every run higher is a 1-3-5, until it’s not. There are a whole host of cognitive biases at work and I’m actually producing a video on ‘false edges’ today which I’ll be filming later this week.

    Prediction based methods/systems do not work. Any of that cycle stuff you’ve looked at – I have long studied and dismissed. NONE of the professional traders I have met is trading this shit. Quite frankly they make fun of guys like you who take this seriously.

    Ask yourself this: WHO is consistently winning in the market? Institutional traders. There are two types – the quants and the guys who have an inside track into deals and are dancing the fine line between illegal and condoned.

    And what are the quants trading day in and day out? EWT? Moon cycles? Bradley turn dates who have a combined sample set of 154? Nope, nope, and nope. They trade algorithmic systems based on extensive analysis.

    Why don’t you try the same?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG That is why I follow and trade BAC BAC leads the Banking Index too
    JULIE

  • TimeToPanic

    Well, you forget I’ve already told you all I don’t really even grasp EW, but I do keep an eye on it out of interest.

    I also follow an excellent quant guy on Twitter, so I think I have an open mind to all angles, but would politely suggest that you’re less open to other routes to success?

    Also, I am 90% in physical gold, a long term holding for my retirement, so trading is just some sideline gambling, albeit I take it seriously.

  • TimeToPanic

    Too late bud, put a fork in it, it’s done.

  • Sp00nman

    So what’s the cliff notes on the UK and brexit lately? Basically they can’t come up with a “deal” to work out the issues with the EU that the Parliament can agree with? Talk about a disaster politically..

  • TimeToPanic

    It’s all obfuscation to try to ignore the will of the people. May succeed, the UK is on a dark dark path to full-blown communism.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    wait! you mean the Queen is just a figure head? with no power?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    TTP They will not be able to over rule the will of the British people.The will was to leave the EU If this does not occur Look out ! Revolution Time in Britain
    JULIE

  • TimeToPanic
  • TimeToPanic

    People here are swinging to the left year by year Julie. Only 53% voted to leave, as they die off and brainwashed lefties leave college, we just keep marching left. Used to be THE strongest Christian nation on the planet, now we’re accursed.

  • mSquare

    The vote was to leave but on false pretexts! That is a deal they thought they could get with all the +ve of being in the EU but without the negatives – not a deal that they could have ever got!

    Lost vote 402 to 202.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    White House serves fast food to guests.
    ‘Faster, Better, Cheaper’.
    (face palm)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    that picture says Enough. doesn’t it?

  • TimeToPanic

    Yeah, I won’t share the one with me shaking Prince Charles’s hand back in 2010, as I hadn’t shaved for a week (Ryder Cup it was).

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • mSquare

    For those who think it matters – Big loss on Brexit vote and by bigger a margin than expected. GBP off the lows

  • TimeToPanic
  • BKXtoZERO

    Those simple bastards…. All the headlines and worries near the lows are already another lifetime

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    stick with us kid.

    edit: notice the big red candle rejection upon trying to renter into the envelope.
    that tells you ‘bravo, on the right track’.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I have trouble understanding and keeping up with all the Brexit news…. What it means. What is real. How many votes they can keep having. This has dragged on far too long.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Julie…You gonna shake your fist and whoop em here? Probe open? Adding? Thanks…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Alright,
    close up your books.

    BK,
    keep swinging man. (think Babe Ruth)

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/29c90ef2e776cda3fba5d9c94f28ec673be5a12f23f7958b2e1f8aa2e6dd8395.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    Not for the fence but I am swinging.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • evilasevildoes

    HAPPENING HERE TOO

  • Jason13

    Can’t believe I’m doing this but I’m shorting this cable pop again…lol…just gotta shut off the noise. Brexit? What Brexit?

  • Jason13

    Started building my S&P short this aft. Got more powder left in case of a little more squeeze.

  • Sp00nman

    Ya personally I don’t think the Brexit news is any news at this point (at least to me since I’m across the pond). It’s been a long time dragging along.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Last year I shorted FED meetings hard… 2 full beartard intraday and they were bonafide reversals that I held and both worked. I rarely do that anymore

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    was that when you got all crazy happy…walking on water with sassy talk?
    I remember.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    Ya I can be REALLY annoying when I am doing well. That is the tell.

  • BKXtoZERO

    still haven’t finished that project either LOL. Rainy season is starting here now and I will wait and see how these trenches actually work first.

  • ridingwaves

    your thinking last year is this year…..that is not good BKX,,,,,being too cocky with your position is my take… stated this years ago, you can always wait on VIX longs as it takes a while for the compounding effect to kick in on way up, but not so on way down..

  • TimeToPanic

    Just for the boss this one.

    Check out @hks55’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/hks55/status/1085304986144333825?s=09

  • TimeToPanic

    Can we put down our pencils too sir?

  • ridingwaves

    2 x for me, nailed the first spike perfectly

  • ridingwaves

    Short playas have to take china monetary actions into account or at times pay a healthy price, this is 2006-7 time frame us equities, stick saves from the 2nd largest economy are going to have similar affect as the U.S. monetary efforts back then

    I remember well, how much pain they delivered to skf and tza back then, u would be counting all the money that night but in the morning after a rescue…..poof

  • BKXtoZERO

    still no official reversal of even fake tightening let alone the next QE

  • TimeToPanic

    I think the Minsky moment is here, look at the Chicom trade figures out this week. More debt stimulus will not work this time.

    Plus, I know from my research, all the world is ready to suffer some pain for 2 years to make the transition away from the USD and kill America. The commies in China, Russia and Europe all hate the US, and have acted, and will continue to act, to kill the US hegemony.

  • TimeToPanic

    You’ll be happy if somehow the government loses the vote of no confidence tomorrow. Party time here if that happens. Unlikely sadly, spineless pols.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    You have detention.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    All of my indicators didn’t line up.
    And we got the squeeze.
    Not as much as I had expected.

    It may not be a conspiracy, double check your perspective
    -GG

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/957872e88504f7369f2f6f70dd3f3527f7828d384fbecb8e49096fd487be67ce.png

  • Sp00nman

    I agree RW that they will certainly fight it but to play devil’s advocate at what point does China finally hit a limit or peak? I’m sure we’ve all seen the images about the empty cities they’ve built just to keep the economy rolling (I wonder if they’re still empty though), and at some point things have to top out. China has had a helluva bull run, and the world is clearly getting saturated with all the cheap chinese stuff they’ve made over the years.

    I’ve learned to never say never, as the game of kick the can can always go on longer than you think, but at SOME point their economy is going to slow considerably. Perhaps with state run banks it’s that much easier for them to kick the can..?

  • BKXtoZERO

    That’s OK.. I have a Guru, a full moon, Elliott wave, and a magic 8 ball that I asked multiple times to be sure…. also a gut feel!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Don’t forget BREXIT.

    I think you described last week in it’s entirety.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Julie slightly underwater SPX short not a big position. You may recall last time Julie Poker Face standing pat ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    What is your cover point? above 2620? what instrument? futures? ETF?
    Thanks. BK xxx ooo xxx ooo

  • BKXtoZERO

    There! I fixed your chart with some cutting and pasting….. would this have been obvious?
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/390fc924c45d16da3dbcd74468e7c2c649eb07897dfa672dce7f7b002e915927.png

  • ridingwaves

    good luck with that…..it will take much longer to take down the dollar reserve…..
    we are the money masters for a while longer….China btw loves the US…..Who cares about Europe we saved their ass multiple times, Russia seems to want to have bigger role but that will take quite a while….

    in fact I will be dead…..and I’m fairly young and healthy…

  • ridingwaves

    the bulls are going to force sideline money into market, bull stampedes take 17-25 days to play out, day 14 today…..no recession, LEI is rising, not falling, yield curve is not inverted, just one series, junk bonds are catching bids, earnings season is here….SNP fwrd pe is 14.8….no bubble…..high but no bubble…..too many people thinking a move back to lows is now creating short covering rallies…..be nimble, wait for the waterfall…sometimes you have to climb high in the mountains before you see one…

  • M E

    Yes I did! I large position too 🙂 Thanks so much!

  • TimeToPanic

    I know things you don’t know. Oil will switch away from the US dollar within 2-3 years, then you juts watch the water circle down the drain til hyperinflation in 2032.

  • evilasevildoes

    weird market

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Political situation here in the U.S. and in Europe has everyone on edge. Systemic instability breeds market instability.

  • evilasevildoes

    listened to a good macrovoices…he says the fed will let dollar spike then when market dips next week they will be extremely accommodative and allll the cops will be buying back shares and yield curve flattened by design