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I Can’t Believe I’m Bullish!
264

I Can’t Believe I’m Bullish!

by The MoleApril 6, 2018

Let me be on record that every fiber of my being is resisting my very uttering of these words, but I have no choice but to consider the clear and present bullish entry opportunity right on front of us this morning.

Which kind of stinks as I was really looking forward to a good ole’ fashioned wipe out, but per Evil Speculator rule #1: Trade the tape in front of you, not the one you want to be trading.

The bullish case has a few things going for itself right now. One: it seems that the loser bears remain incapable of breaching the ES 2550 mark. Second: momo divergences are popping up all over the place (see below). Third: A most beautiful spike low is now in place.

Our Zero indicator (you are a sub aren’t you?) continues to point up but swung downward a few times during yesterday’s sideways session. For now I’m sticking with the hourly perspective (left panel) which doesn’t show me anything worrisome.

Let’s do a quick momo update because we need to. The VIX:SVXY is a new addition to my IV roster and it continues to point down after a bearish signal a few days ago.

SKEW vs. the VIX is pushing back > its lower BB which in this direction is a buy signal. I have been a bit cautious with this one over the past few weeks as the BB needed to normalize a little after those wild swings.Β I’m now cautiously pinning a buy signal here.

One more IV chart – the VXV:VIX – one of our favorites. Once again we’re plotting it inversely in order to more easily trace BTFD opportunities. Here as well I would cautiously pin a buy signal based on the push > the lower BB and the divergence between the ratio and the SPX.

Bottom Line:

All that means I have to be long here with as stop below 2598. I hate it, especially on a Friday, but I have no choice until Ms. Market tells me otherwise.

Caveat

The bears are not out of the game by any measure. A failure here and a drop < 2550 unleashes the flood gates. This is the entry I should be taking but I cannot yet as of today.

We had a few stop outs since my last campaign update. One is copper which exited at break/even after producing an exhaustion spike above my 1R mark.

By the way a re-entry is possible in the near future assuming we get a nice spike low and a push above the 100-hour SMA. Let’s just call it the 3.05 mark on the May front month contract.

The other one is Litecoin which looked like a perfect break/out candidate but then suddenly fell back into depression and stopped me out at break/even.

In case you are unaware my golden rule most recently has been to advance my stop to break/even after my campaigns reach an MFE of 1R or higher. Has kept me out of a ton of unnecessary losses over the past few weeks.

In the past I used to wait until the 2R mark but that rule does not work in highly volatile markets. When the market environment change we and our systems must change with it.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Darkthirty

    Had a 2595 target for the downside of this correction. Thanks for the pic, nausea is good first thing in the morning

  • Brishort

    Mole,excellent post.Thanks for the ones at the bottom as well, they look good indeed.
    Flat going into the open, let’s see what the tape brings and indeed, my systems look like they want to go long this morning. We shall see!

  • Darkthirty

    Whipsaw has things convoluted. I’ve got both long and short signals, scalp em as they come!

  • StockTalker

    Getting dizzy watching this, remaining short. Will need to retest 24k before any advance but will flip if need be above 24.4k

  • ridingwaves

    news doesn’t matter, πŸ™‚
    it it did we would be down 70 pts on SPX…

  • StockTalker

    Don’t pay any attention to the news but what happened? It affects my trading when I watch so just tune myself out.

  • ridingwaves

    being snarky….good luck in your trading…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    2656 HWB

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Turning bullish could happen in May, for me.
    “Sell in May is an old wives tale”

    edit: I will confess, the bear damage has been done.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/976c383ad250131b98d62a432a6795a8d783e774a3747791335367e6f52acf57.png

  • BobbyLow

    Don’t want to sound stupid but what’s HWB stand for?

  • HD

    half way back, 50% retrace

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    “Hottie With Body”

  • ridingwaves

    going long into this weekend with China retaliation talk going to happen for sure is nuts…they take their time and just got back from vacation for 1 day of trading, Monday should be interesting….if they talk, it will be ugly

  • Darkthirty

    pegged that one…

  • Darkthirty

    Monday expiration lotto options

  • ridingwaves

    makes it even more dangerous…..remember China has been closed for this short covering rally, thus the little green move last night…another perfectly timed MM bot induced rally courtesy of our banker overlords…

  • Darkthirty

    $500 out of the money puts and calls, you’ll be ahead either way with a 10 point move

  • HD

    thx out at 48. Gonna stay scalpy for a while

  • BobbyLow

    Ah ha! Thanks. πŸ™‚

    I thought the Dow Futures might retrace a lot from being down 400 + Points down last night. If I had balls and the capital to do so I should have faded that move down but it was not to be.

    Because I’m back to trading mostly ETF’s, I think from now on when my day is done, I’ll shut down my trading platform. There’s no sense of me looking at futures in after hours if there’s nothing that I can do until regular trading hours.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Not much shortside in my model so standingi aside awaiting a equity buy side entry. That was the spike but before post-trip coffee kicked in.

  • Darkthirty

    Any other way to do it?

  • ridingwaves

    it was a great setup….I too was almost going to buy..not sure of where we are going…feels like without a wash out lower were just going to get more of this for next 10 days

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You obviously need to learn BobbyLow.

  • Darkthirty

    Fed’s gonna own the whole “market” at this rate

  • Mary

    sometimes the highs and lows of the overnight session indicate significant areas of support and resistance during the daytime session.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I think he’s taking midday naps. HWB was clearly covered in class.
    πŸ˜‰

  • HD

    ha ha, nope. I guess you could argue that both massive gaps down this week were bot. That’s bullish. VIX 20… says don’t hold positions

  • Darkthirty

    4 minute pump cycle, tanks every time they get off the throttle….

  • Darkthirty

    Trans Fats….Is that what you call the thing on the header?

  • BobbyLow

    This tape might be great for fast day trades but it sucks trying to put together a 2 or 3 day swing trade.

  • StockTalker

    /CL in deep shit here

  • Darkthirty

    Helps to be ADHD!

  • ridingwaves

    no doubt on that…….

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Did you give up on /QM?

  • ridingwaves

    until 61 its just playing short term traders…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Spoos.
    it’s a hot mess Friday.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/34f63a85ae7ec08e79124338b7af8779a59df8f70ed90c5d1e19deaa41767f3e.png
    candles, insides of candles, crowded zig zag oragami traffic jam.

  • ridingwaves

    no one buying puts right now….vix should be higher

  • Mark Shinnick

    Jeez…my models losing buyside edge here..

  • ridingwaves

    remember MOLE said below 2650 is short…but that was yesterday
    https://youtu.be/cNfN5i36E_k

  • HD

    2619 would be overlap if/when

  • Mark Shinnick

    roger that.

  • ridingwaves

    they don’t want COMP to get below 7K again….that would be ugly

  • Darkthirty

    2605 is symmetrical

  • BobbyLow

    Yes I did for now. I was day trading it for awhile it but day trading turns trading which is something I love to do into more stress that I want to deal with. I found swing trading /QM had an additional problem of being able to use wide enough stops that work within my system to make it through overnight fuckery. This was frustrating.

    The bottom line is it comes down to risking a few hundred per trade in something in which I can control size and deal with morning gaps or risk considerably more than a few hundred in Futures and play with scared money. Playing with scared money sucks.

  • HD

    that would really help if SPX tests that

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    Just play for points………..

  • HD

    618! You’re really taking to this EW stuff GG πŸ™‚

  • Darkthirty

    Had 2595 but the retrace went higher than anticipated

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    remember though, Mole will flip faster than Gartman.
    and Mole get’s it right!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Omen’s, full moons, rabbit feet, whatever makes me coin.

  • BobbyLow

    I know you do a lot of work with options and you might be one of the few people who are able to do it successfully.

    I found that there are way too many ways to lose trading options and that the house has too many odds stacked up against an option trader.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    someone wake up Julie. {snort}

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    USO 15m, timmmmmmmmmber.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Entered long. Stop is prett tight.

  • Mary

    BL – short term in the money puts and calls can carry almost no time valley and move 100% with the underlying with limited risk.

    with USO currently at 12.60:

    April 13 13.00 put – 0.43/0.45
    April 13 13.50 put – 0.90/0.92
    April 13 12.00 call – 0.60/0.62

    no stops needed.

    expirations every Friday

  • Mary

    It depends on which options you trade. See above.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    let’s see if it holds, otherwise, it’s a last kiss good bye.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    does anybody have a tick chart in the House??

  • StockTalker

    Getting long at 24k

  • Darkthirty

    Scalp em , no sweat on time value. Better money trading a day or so from expiration

  • Mary
  • Yoda

    Yes a little blood is in the Street, but so far traders only got paper cuts.
    I am not buying risk yet for the following reasons:
    – 10 years’ yield is still too high and has room to drop some more
    – OPEX is on April 20th. The last decade has shown us that Market Makers love to kill the VIX in the days preceding OPEX. However, the pain would be much higher is they manage to suck in VXX, TVIX buyers from today and next week, so that they can be skinned alive during the OPEX week.
    – today is Friday
    – I would love to see first a more pronounced positive divergence on the 60 min zero
    – CPC and CPCE readings are still neutral

    The Fear and Greed Index is scrapping the lows so it is time pay attention for a bounce, however it would be nice to see a full fledged capitulation of the bulls first.

    When I’ll see red and yellow headlines on CNBC and CNN stating “Market Crash Alert”, I’ll try to scoop the best bounce victims out there.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Standing aside..

  • Darrell Osgood

    My medium term (2 week) system just triggered in the bull’s favor with a stop at ~2580. It triggered earlier than I expected. I’m trying to decide whether to buy into euro based stocks. That picture is not clear to me.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    bye bye Miss American Pie, drove the Chevy..

  • Mary

    he looks a little light in the loafers …

  • HD

    smart IMO

  • StockTalker

    My puts are in the green, looking for a hair banger.

  • HD

    Gas is up $0.50 a gallon this year in my hood. That’s pretty much wiping out the tax cut for most IMO

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    sold TVIX 10.18 from late yesterday 9.35 3rd peak higher on declining RSI

  • Mark Shinnick

    Rebot long.

  • Mary

    or the tax cut wiped out the gas price increase …

  • HD

    The one constant in this market is the need to adapt. The news has been avoidable in years past but the current environment is sensitive and hyperfocused on headlines. 1 tweet away from a 10% hit is the current risk.

  • HD

    unfortunate, either way.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    hold the train!..

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks Mary.

    I’ve traded weekly USO Options before and they are OK because they don’t have a large spread with almost 0 Theta burn and a great Delta. I’ve also traded almost every type of option spread imaginable but I still prefer the 2X and 3X ETFs.

    One thing I did learn trading option spreads is that during troubling times, I can use Bull and Bear Spreads using actual ETF Stocks instead of options. I actually did that this morning and added some OILD 3X Short to create a spread between 3X OILU and 3X OILD. The markets are probably going to be really messed up and extremely volitile over the next few days and creating this spread limits my exposure. The key will be making the correct decision on which side of the spread to jettison when the time comes.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Quite a bit of a mess here, so don’t feel bad. It’s easy to get caught up in the swings.

  • Tomcat

    Speaking of fake news, Mnuchin is on CNBC @1PM. There may be a BTFD moment while he speaks.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Have no fear, I just nailed the low, heading back up

  • Mark Shinnick

    This is a pretty good support.

  • Dyellowflash

    I am long too… at Dow 24134…

  • ridingwaves

    gotta have inflation, or the fed experiment was meant for some folks only to get rich…..

  • Mark Shinnick

    Trade just got too-crowded πŸ™‚

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Tomcat

    RW, GL on your short in TSLA, in hindsight, I should have had the balls to go in at 280, when I got the buy signal, but its amazing how Tony Stark has been fooling the market and burning the shorts.

  • BKXtoZERO

    little bull head and shoulders forming on COMPX and others, rt shoulder rt now

  • Yoda

    The news is just an excuse. It however helps to read the emotionality of the market. And yes, if the February low fails we can expect panic to kick-in and spread like wildfire until the Central Banks steps in and kill the shorts.

  • ridingwaves

    I was stopped out of all at 305….so in hindsite I should have dumped the other 1/2 on first big waterfall of 50 candles, still a winner…but not as much as it could have been….

    you know I think I’m going to write a song using that last line…

  • ridingwaves

    actually earnings will be more important, 15.9 FWD PE now with sell off, not too crazy….
    earnings kick off next week. The move in XLF has me thinking the charge offs last qtr because of tax change is history and they will lead the market up…

    still need a washout to 2460 and huge volume buy in…

    I think we are in agreement after re-reading your message, but all you say is truthful master yoda, may the force be with you..

  • HD

    the dollar is down 15% does that count toward inflation too?

  • Tomcat

    There is inflation in almost every day product you buy, except the FED doesn’t track it in the new formula “insert reason here”:
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/perianneboring/2014/02/03/if-you-want-to-know-the-real-rate-of-inflation-dont-bother-with-the-cpi/#7f50a526200b

    There was a guy who had website (that I have lost track since) that kept tracking inflation with the same method before the FED changed back in the 80s I think.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Spoos 30m
    the ovals are telling.
    Anything between the dashed lines, is fair game.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/af51058f4f3439ea7a7c6b5630d324a7adec70dbfef1b137e5a12f9c9ea8d03e.png

  • Tomcat
  • BKXtoZERO

    how is you family member in the hospital doing?

  • ridingwaves

    want some dark scary stuff….see a pattern…with the market motivators
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/016cd8e7426adf24dcbf20dbc6ba338e26fcf5020678c97d3343bae56930db0e.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    thank you for asking. The Doc says it’s the least worst hip fracture you can have. A small incision with three pins laterally across the break is planned this afternoon. It sucks getting old in meatspace!

  • Yoda

    Thanks Stainless Surfing Rat. May wisdom guide your decisions.
    There is no reason for the earnings to be bad at this point. Maybe later in the year when the consequences of higher interest rates and Trump’s rhetoric starts to be felt, but right now the economy is roaring. To me this market sell-off is deliberate to bring rates down.

  • ridingwaves

    hip issues are pretty important around here..here’s to quick healing…

  • BKXtoZERO

    someday that will be me breaking my hip when TVIX goes back to 5000 on that weekly chart ;-O

  • HD

    agree, I guess the pic I’m painting is crap can get way more expensive, quickly. All those everyday products we buy are made in China. Market has priced 10% in, so far.

  • Julie
  • BobbyLow

    Hope everything goes well this afternoon and beyond GG.

  • Julie

    GG I said a prayer for you and your family last night. I hope a speedy and painless recovery
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…short.

  • ridingwaves

    this could be a huge blow out right now if everyone wants out before the weekend…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Nah, there’s still that support at 2618.
    maybe touch 2600, and Bunjee to 2618 for a close?

  • ridingwaves

    6988 3x holding it back right now, busts thru and smoking..

  • Ronebadger

    Been short, but my rules said cover half yesterday….stupid rules…very complicated. Still “half” short…getting close to adding more…maybe…

  • HD

    seems like this hit has plenty of dip buyers. 2623 is HWB the big rally and 2619 would overlap. JMHO

  • BKXtoZERO

    out of TVIX 10.18. I don’t hold anything over weekends, and not much over weeknights unless IN the money on solid pattern.

  • Julie

    SPY the low volume on the bounce was a red flag

  • ridingwaves

    maybe too early

  • Julie
  • ridingwaves

    4x now, can it handle a 5th dimension

  • Julie

    Also a possible double top
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    dang, that is sticky, thought it had it for second..

  • Julie

    USO yesterday unable to close above it’s 5 ema which is cautionary. However it did hold it’s 21 ema
    JULIE

  • Yoda
  • BKXtoZERO

    I am still expecting more work by the bulls above the trendline they broke through. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fb6a0595c33677e0a3b841bb16c45b4c0e7b2c3f640d2752b5a37c22fae78afc.jpg

  • Julie

    RW in a post below charting $COMP. Great one … circling the black candles A gap up and closing below it’s open is always cautionary. Thanks for the chart RW and great eye
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Flat.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    nope. wishful thinking. there are Sooo many support lines waiting.
    like barbed wire on a battle front.

  • Ronebadger

    I know, I know…but that’s just part of the puzzle, not the trigger…

  • ridingwaves

    only one that matters is COMP 6988 right now

  • Julie

    Approaching short term overbought too
    JULIE

  • Julie

    It’s Friday which are usually neutral or positive. Expect TPTB to pull a rabbit out their butt. They want the consumer to feel good and spend money over the weekend. SPX needs a close below it’s daily 5 ema for the short if held over the weekend IMO Remember the 5 – 21 and 55 ema’s are in a bearish alignment and MACD below it’s centerline with an RSI below 50 Busy day and must resume work https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/74c8dc3f18295a5304244742769f44996f3eb9a14665d0bb2da9959e399a3193.png JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’m voting for Neutral.
    this could be my last chart for the day. (/YM)
    I’m substitute Mom for the day.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/50a0fb107699ea966e9e5bf134b10d261711f5dc79e6d6f905b198600354af3d.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    Awesome Steely Dan show totally worthy of cranking up while watching candles…. start at 8 min in, Green Earrings. Happy Friday. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGt8RebOy7Q&t=2898s

  • Julie

    GG Have a great weekend and hope your family member is much better. I too am busy today. Will check in later
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Thanks Guys,
    I’m out! Peace!

  • ridingwaves

    so far not, good trade….with powell coming up in 30 minutes they are laughing at weak bears…

  • HD

    Ok that was HWB at 2656 and HWB at 2623. Time for an IPA and donut

  • HD

    great charts today!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    good idea. I’ll buy you one. Tucson is a little far to drive.
    πŸ˜‰

    https://ecommerce-news.es/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Dunkin-Donuts.jpg

  • ridingwaves

    damn amazing support, bears give in here….must by pygmy bears

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Boy you guys are chatty today. Here’s another update on the Zero. Still not looking so hot – I should know better than to take out a campaign on a Friday.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/619b433d9c08e916d0c4f3d8c87dcbbe4c924c3a10d3c483961da71218459250.png

    Anyway, it’s a small position – 1/3% – decided to leave it running over the weekend unless of course I get stopped out toward the close.

  • Tomcat

    Give Mnuchin a chance… (see below)

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    They actually used to sell good donuts here in VLC for a while – in a speciality store. But it went out of business unfortunately and what you get at the supermarket just outright sucks.

    But forget about donuts – I would kill for a decent bagel!!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Agreed – should have mentioned that. More here:

    https://evilspeculator.com/statistics/?symbol=SPY

  • StockTalker

    Nice VWAP touch, waiting for 23999 to try a long

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Why didn’t you show up earlier!!?? πŸ˜‰

  • ridingwaves

    if this whale or bot stops buying comp 6988-6990 area, it will be bloody…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Aaah – Donald Fagon – good one.

  • HD

    Fabio was too much for this market.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I tempted my luck I guess πŸ™‚

  • StockTalker

    Agree, been short but willing to attempt it. Below 24k now will be allot of blood.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    At this point they need to throw in the kitchen skink. Whatever they do – keep Powell locked up in a box somewhere. That guy is kryptonite to equities.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    VWAP failed again – NOT GOOD.

  • Tomcat

    Why lock him, when you can pressure him into another round of QE…

  • Julie

    Have a quick minute and sneak in a chart https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/aa026e5dd6fcef72c800bf35cc57e4ee2521716097b801753918ff69114e5394.png SPX Volume By Price Slices down thru Go Bears ! JULIE

  • HD

    I am very interested in the VWAP thing. Best on 5 minute? Today’s range 2657-2623, HWB 2640 lined up with VWAP. That confluence I have seen a number of times. Will track as I believe it’s high probability scalp.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I just sold the stocks I bought to make my wife happy….. (I didn’t get any so letting em go)

  • Mark Shinnick

    Long miners

  • Mark Shinnick

    :/

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    you can’t buy love, you can only rent it.
    πŸ˜‰

    QQQ’s
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p06790001864

  • HD

    one more. 2612

  • ridingwaves

    COMP hitting fill part of 4-3 candle

  • Julie

    Lunch time guys. Watching this high flyer NKTR …..(1) Down to it’s 55 ema (2) support zone (3) MACD centerline test (4) RSI at 40 AND Full Stochs coiling A gem for the GG JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/37219b5795daa84f547f4287da16928ccd9e1462785830066808b1cafca002f8.png

  • ridingwaves

    good area to get in or start scaling in with market looking to head lower, another pharma company bought 8 million shares at 102 so your ahead of them πŸ™‚

  • Mark Shinnick

    Long equities

  • Julie

    BKXto ZERO and everyone I do not have time today to show the momentum trade. Will post over the weekend
    JULIE

  • Julie

    Thanks RW Again great chart on the $COMP earlier
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    I was waiting! ok.

  • ridingwaves

    i’m getting a sneaky idea that someone knows what China is coming back with…

  • ridingwaves

    if that chart plays out 3 is a charm, Monday maybe waterfall type event or def con level 9

  • BKXtoZERO

    I never voted down before ;-O not looking good dude…… BIG balls….

  • StockTalker

    F that, flipped to short

  • ridingwaves

    its defcon 5 level event unfolding…
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YDvugsSjI6s

  • StockTalker

    Good, TVIX at 50

  • ridingwaves

    a black monday, markets don’t repeat but do rhyme

  • Julie

    Not me Mark The SPX pullback from the 21 ema and busting down thru the 5 ema and short term overbought. Personally I am looking at the lower trend lines and support zone coinciding with the 233 ema for a possible bounce. However In previous posts my target is 2461 which would intersect the lower channel trend line and be two equal legs down from the end of January JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6674120e98c6f1c80f60d26e0c3c999ff884903abfb405b3ff65a16151c4ec0b.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    mixed feelings…. I am trying not to hold over weekends anymore. I used up my buying power, and exited even last small position. My account is going up in linear fashion following my set of rules. If it opens at 2500 or 2400 there will be entries there too. They are open every day. This hurts the bear in me but I plan on being responsible.

  • Julie

    2400 — 2460 is strong support. Good analysis
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    Exited pus for 40%

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, a vol re-pop for sure. Nearing objective.

  • Ronebadger

    Schvitz hitting fan

  • StockTalker

    L 23800

  • BKXtoZERO

    I am sure there will be an entry too….. so far, this selling has been pretty controlled and planned like they are trading it too. Rare so far that there is a big move that isn’t then set up on a platter to re-enter, like they are trading this too.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, rebot.

  • Julie

    RW Are you able to bring up a monthly chart SPX stockcharts.com.? If so has the monthly PMO topped ? Thanks
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    your bear flag was the ticket again

  • BobbyLow

    Where’s the flight to safety now?

    Gold – Nope, up less than 7 Points

    Bonds- Nope, up less than a Point

    New Kid on the Block BTC- Definitely not, down 165

    Maybe there is no considered safe harbor anymore or there is no real threat yet.

  • Tomcat

    Good ole USD maybe??? Cash is king no?

  • StockTalker

    This is not a good situation for the markets.

  • BobbyLow

    Cash is still king as far as I’m concerned.

  • Julie

    BL Baseball cards ….. I recently read that baseball cards have been the best investment of the last 100 years LOL !
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    volume looks less than half of 3 previous day bull candles (so far)

  • Tomcat

    Why not, what happened to bullish engulfing BS spouted by the pundits on Wed

  • Mark Shinnick

    Still within norms….but not exactly bullish if this level also fails..

  • Mary

    Forever stamps …. the holy grail …

  • BKXtoZERO
  • BobbyLow

    Not a bad choice Julie. For me one of the things would be a Resto Mod 1966 Chevelle 396 Super Sport 4 on the floor and of course with AC.

    I still have this on my Bucket List. πŸ™‚

  • StockTalker

    Don’t know, you tell me.

  • BobbyLow

    Not a bad idea and easy to store.

  • Tomcat

    Mary, yours calls have been spot on, hope you have been able to make bank.

  • Tomcat

    All the TA pundits were sounding as if that was the most bullish of indicators…

  • StockTalker

    Fuck, been bearish for the past 2 months.

  • Tomcat

    So high chance we close below the 200 MA. That should scare some BOTS, NO?

  • Tomcat

    Bears need to deliver this time, no fckin around…

    My paper money bet, is they will capitulate as they have for the last 8 years.

  • BobbyLow

    Hell, we’re only at around a 10 – 11 % correction at this point. 15% to 20% corrections used to be the norm pre-QE didn’t they?

  • Julie

    Hi TC Usually 3 days for a short covering rally if the bulls do not initiate a positive feedback loop. The lackluster SPY volume for the 3 day bounce said it all
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    I hear ya, but it is different now with all the BS. This market is going to get raped

  • Mark Shinnick

    If the present “bear market” thesis happens to be true.

  • Julie

    BKXtoZERO That is why I am watching SPX per chart below in a reply to Mark i.e. the 233 ema coinciding with a support zone.If it goes below then 2461 matching the lower trend line of the channel for two equal legs down from January
    JULIE

  • Mary

    I was short yesterday the /NQ … it never hit my stop but I got out at breakeven on a retrace … so here I am with a great call, but no bank.

    I need to de-program myself from “Never let a winner turn into a loser.”

    I still have a target of 6210 on /NQ based on a weekly signal a few weeks back, but didn’t take it because of the big stop required in the weekly chart setup.

    Maybe I should just offer a service that sells signals, but I have an aversion to those people.

  • Tomcat

    You sound like a bear with some balls, GL to you! I will stand aside enjoying the show.

  • HD

    (55) point hit from VWAP

  • BKXtoZERO

    RSI diverging on ES…. not sure what to make. They tagged that tren https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/032b32b10ee775b19d0e7c3d8a4dcf289a8266287462feb26019f35a02a8ed79.jpg d line I posted earlier

  • Julie

    Adding to BKXtoZERO chart below showing SPY volume. IMO a retest of the support zone and if the retest is on less volume that would be bullish JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fc1d8f1e9d176ccf4ce71e1fe9a450f46658dd3d268b2477169c658bb7cc4988.png

  • HD
  • Brishort

    Didn’t have any time for the market today, but just saw Zero -4 to positive…. impressive reading going into the close.

  • Ronebadger

    Yesterday was not quite a textbook Island Reversal…but looks nice…it’s a doji though…but, what’s in a name???

  • Julie

    Two 9 : 1 down volume days within 5 trading days usually a bounce. Then a resumption of the decline if not a 9 :1 up volume day . This is in my husband’s notes
    JULIE

  • Julie

    Evening star candle pattern
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    I said it was going to leave an island!

  • Tomcat

    Not sure I follow Julie?

  • Julie

    TC not sure how to explain it …. 9 shares down for 1 share up …. two of these within 5 trading days. This denotes a very oversold condition portending a bounce. Now the bounce must have 9 shares up for every 1 down share. If this does not occur then the rally usually fails and the decline resumes Hope that helps
    JULIE

  • Mary

    do you the mean volume of decliners are 9 times the volume of advancers?

  • Julie

    Yes Mary Volume You got it !
    JULIE

  • Tomcat

    Yeah, exactly, I thought she was talking vol since this has been the main topic.

  • Mary

    maybe GG will win the prize if we close at 2618.

  • ridingwaves

    6988 and then 6888 were where the $COMP support layers were, the leaders of this bull market over last year are the only concern right now….maybe SPY 256 to boot..

  • HD

    !!! Big rally off fib. You guys have a good weekend.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    One can hope.

    I think this day will be remembered well. LOL.

    https://media.giphy.com/media/v6NrqjE6xVHKE/giphy.gif

  • Mary

    still looks a little light in the loafers …

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    woman, just roll with it. I didn’t pick the theme today.

  • Julie

    Short USO (small position) The break down of the lower trend line and 55 ema. Distribution today i.e. selling volume today more than yesterday’s volume and decline today greater 0.2% (IBD definition of distribution) Will hold over the weekend (small position) https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/577f4f263fa29f36969f0f2fe74b27d7bf9fbff6a378b17803e0ee3551db30ae.png JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Time Check.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Have a good weekend….. Bulls/Bears/Bunny Rabbits…. Bunny love to all.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    a parting Spoos glance.
    a surprising day. (see Grumpy cat chart, waaaay below)
    have a great weekend guys.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e05c8ea8c1bf20479c4794ba29011f6f9abd0a970cb178942c64ead58f9a17e8.png

  • Julie

    Mary He is definitely not my type ! Have a great weekend Mary and thanks for your contributions
    JULIE

  • Julie

    You too GG Again hope all is well with your family
    JULIE

  • Mary

    Have fun Julie.

  • Julie

    You too BKXtoZERO
    JULIE

  • grednfer

    now draw a line connecting the 3 higher lows on your chart.
    Also pretty good back test of old downtrend line.
    Went long from 2590……synthetic so no worries…
    Feels weird cuz the moves are so extreme.

    Had ES puts this morning 2600s…..15 to 43…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    those higher lows might be creating divergence somewhere.
    I leave it up to you guys to call it out.

  • grednfer

    Also….kinda looks like an inverted H&S…..but bla bla.
    Yesterdays move was definitely 5 waves down…..
    But trendlines trump EW stuff.

  • grednfer

    And….isn’t the title of todays posting about being Bullish?
    Aren’t we supposed to be bullish now?
    Just trying to follow along. πŸ™‚

  • grednfer

    Something like this…..
    Maybe it can get to 2725…..which will be a great short. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/359c7b215202788c7fba37076b28fb3b2d49ac54e5110bdd7a7627c83a56db9f.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    still hoping for that….

  • ridingwaves

    vix daily looks like bull flag, impressive day for bears, any china news over weekend could be painful across the board. 6575 could happen here and drag down rest of market https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/016cd8e7426adf24dcbf20dbc6ba338e26fcf5020678c97d3343bae56930db0e.png

  • grednfer

    OK….
    Forecasting price in a bear market is difficult.
    The data points I have are:
    We just exited a 16 day downtrend…and backtested.
    ES made three higher lows and looks to be in an UP channel.
    ES Closed above 200
    NQ closed above 200 (important cuz ES follows NQ, tech weighting)
    VIX has been making lower highs and lower lows since 3/23
    and
    Fabio says to go long LOL
    If Up trend doesn’t hold then I agree….its going back down to test 2550.

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    I used to have a ’69 Chevelle SS. Fast and fun.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Weekend Link – I think you will like it.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gjVDqfUhXOY

  • BobbyLow

    I had a 68 Firebird with a 326 4 Speed. The 60’s Muscle Cars were the best.

    BTW, back to the /QM Futures, I’ve learned to never say never because although I’ve given up on them temporarilly, I really never give up completely and am always looking for new ways to make things happen. I’m also looking to see if I can bring back /MGC Micro Gold Futures and might try to make them work again.

  • Mary

    Thanks GG. I spend a lot of time attending youtube university and this one ranks high up there. Imagine if more people spent time listening to people like this instead of bathing themselves in pop culture.

  • grednfer

    OK…..Long or Short S&P?
    Here is the most Bearish chart I have….for everything
    QID….2X Short QQQ beaten down by 9 year tech rise to a low of 10.37
    If QID continues upward…..the world will crumble, because tech weighting is everywhere.
    Nice looking Chart….
    Easy Trend….
    Positive Slope on 200 4Hr.
    Good Volume and liquidity.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/39fcbca97b77c8c615c8fea46d99ba2fc68a33edc949a61b80f7e6b71729b00e.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    thanks Mary. I ran across it by chance. Some traders just want the action. Some traders want to know the bigger picture community.

    https://www.ted.com/talks/jim_simons_a_rare_interview_with_the_mathematician_who_cracked_wall_street

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Direction is sketchy. just look at those swings lately.

    But I do want to contribute. Sitting in a hospital is boring, with capital B.
    Think about change the bollinger.
    2.0 is a good start. I was going to tell you to add a 1.0 on top of that.
    But given that I am listening to a brilliant mathmetician Billionaire at the moment,
    give this a chance.

    Break your bollinger into thirds. To make the math right, let’s go with the original 2.1, 1.4 and 0.7. Let’s take long as an example. Entry at 0.7 with a half position, then 1.4 add, then 2.1 as a reasonable exit (or trail) target? Everybody’s different, so take mine with a grain of salt.

    -GG https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/65bb6d78a4da86af2ac2c0c430595842eaa5ab8d04594d0f329faa3dc2240e1c.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    maybe you missed in the comments where Mole later posted the zero and said it wasn’t looking good for being long. It could certainly go either way. To me a weekend entry here truly is gambling not trading or speculating.

  • BKXtoZERO

    sounds like a 14 billion$ idea!

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Great stuff Gerb. Thanks.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Why I dislike exhaustive back testing on indexes?
    “survivor-biased data”

    The S&P 500 of today, is not your father’s S&P 500

    https://blog.quantopian.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/2TuckerBalch20122008SP500.png

    from:
    https://blog.quantopian.com/9-mistakes-quants-make-that-cause-backtests-to-lie-by-tucker-balch-ph-d/

  • grednfer

    So far so Good….
    C2700s have already doubled
    P2590s have dropped from 35 to 19
    Current week.

    We’ll see….
    Have to survive Japan, Hong Kong, then those EU guys

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    +(34)point rally now. Fibs still in control,,, until they aren’t. I’m a seller.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Anyone have a clear view of gold/silver they wish to share? Gold banging against 1365 FOUR times and hanging just under. Silver has been in total boredom…. I would guess silver is a buy on any break above it’s tight little current range. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7a441d5e0c46afb29cec2160a756f34ea3833732680b84fc64c70e12fc0d0a6f.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Spoos coming up on an interesting area.
    unfortunately, I’m in dire need of sleep.

    I’m certain the news will fit the tape, always seems to work out that way.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0ab25c5e2245cf579c3fb120a10e3ade3f8266c02b7b4b3b142bf44102fdc5e5.png