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I For One Welcome Our New Robot Overlords
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I For One Welcome Our New Robot Overlords

by The MoleMay 22, 2014

As I’m currently living outside of the U.S. I was blissfully unaware of the fact that we’re heading into Memorial Day weekend until just earlier today. I really should keep a U.S. calendar handy so I can plan my trips around them. Anyway, this explains some of the tumbleweeds I’ve been seeing in the comment section, although some of you guys may just wind up kicking yourself….

It’s not unheard of for important inflection points to be breached during low participation periods. Whether or not our RTV-L entry winds up surviving the weekend remains to be seen. I have decided to keep it in play as I’ve accumulated a nice buffer zone. We do have a whole session ahead of us tomorrow but I don’t expect much action to be honest.

The VIX now touching its falling diagonal support line again. Yes a bounce here is a possibility but it may just slide it down slowly and steadily – see what happened last time before it jumped back higher.

UVOL/DVOL on the NYSE – let me just say that I for one welcome our new robot overlords! Which seem to be kicking in every time we touch that new rising diagonal on the spoos (see first chart and it’ll jump at you).

On the bearish side we have the TF kissing its new nemesis which is the 25-day SMA. Has been trying to overcome it for weeks and has continued to fail. I would be short here but given the long weekend I’m not going to bother.

Given my current long exposure I’m also not exactly thrilled about what I’m seeing on the VIX:VXO ratio. Short term that could mean we’re looking at a little shake out tomorrow. Well, it is what it is and given that this is a daily campaign near the highs I decided to stick by the rules. Jumping in/out will most likely lead to missing the bus entirely.

Gold update – yes, I’m still stubbornly long since that IP candle – what, almost a week ago? But if you consider the context then you know why. I do like the 25-week SMA offering potential support. Naturally I would be willing to flip sides if we drop below my current stop at 1280 (which was well placed IMNSHO).

Platinum – not sure how many of you grabbed that ST long but hell, it did pay off once it got out of the gate. I’m cutting this one now as we’re kissing the 100-week SMA and that’s just too much for me to worry about ahead of Tuesday. This was a nice run though and I’m not pushing my luck.

I don’t expect many of you will be trading tomorrow but if anything interesting happens I’ll be sure to chime in. Either way I’ll probably post a quick update with some general sentiment before we head into the long weekend. See you then.

 

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Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • piotrek_o

    Hi, Since you trade from europe , what hours do you trade/watch market? do you still follow nyse open-close? Just curious.

  • RacerXX

    Happy Spanish Memorial Day Mole.. 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I’m around pretty much all day – with a little gym break in between. Actually I like it better than back in Los Angeles – had to roll out of bed way to early there.

  • DarthTrader

    Down with the Robot Overlord Pigs !

    Give me Free Markets or Give me Account Death!

    😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Pssst – they can hear you!!!

  • Billabong

    We want more; more speed. Milliseconds aren’t enough, we want microseconds … 🙂

  • Skynard

    Taking partial profit /DX, /YM 550 resistance line in the sand for me at this point.

  • Skynard

    Short /CC on the retrace at this point.

  • Ronebadger

    VIX at lower BB

  • bdoone

    Yep, was just looking at it. Directly on it 11.47…we shall see.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    welcome back. you’ve been demoted a rank for going AWOL.
    😉

  • bdoone

    Good to see you back. Was worried.

  • Skynard

    Did some damage to my knee lifting weights. Will need surgery on it now.

  • Skynard

    Picked up June Spy 178″s @ .28, looks to be another ending diagonal. Nice div on the hourly.

  • Ronebadger

    BUMMER!

  • bdoone

    I’m glad, only because I thought maybe something happened with account, or worse yet, your brother.

  • Skynard

    Wheat long for a right shoulder.

  • Skynard

    Been lifting all my life, catches up eventually.

  • Skynard

    Lol, that will not happen again. Did my time:) Bro is still in remission:)

  • bdoone

    Didnt mean blow up, but maybe overextend and need rest. shit happens.

  • Skynard

    Ya, have learned that rest is a good thing from the market especially after a good run:)

  • Skynard

    In VIX calls, hehehe

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Not if you’re smart. Let me guess – deadlifts?

  • Skynard

    5 min diverging nicely at this point.

  • Skynard

    Yep, always wear my braces. Just does to much damage over time.

  • Skynard

    Will be bionic man:)

  • Sean

    Isn’t it always?

  • Skynard

    When you have participation like today it is a extremely accurate gauge. Even as minimal as it seems.

  • bdoone

    Learned early also, and of course, often, and still do it but to lesser extent…. I was young and was on a great run and my goal (a car, stupid I know) was getting close so got greedy, then stupid, then back to basics…. Changed my plan from buying car to accumulating twice the price of car: eventually got the car but took longer and worth it. Caveat before anybody says thats not a good trading plan: it was 20 yrs ago, 2yrs out of college, still living home after working FT job for 2.5 yrs and full load at college with 2 goals: options floor trader & own a Viper. The poster of car kept me going many times.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • newbfxtrader

    200 day coming up. If that doesnt hold i wouldnt stay long.

  • bdoone

    Yup. Was starting to date my wife and she asked what I’m doing with my money: live home, clerking at time at PHLX and owned 3 tri-plexes. I said it goes into my Viper fund. She thought it was a stock/mutual fund until I whipped a u-turn 1 day on busy street because I saw a Viper coming other way and followed it hanging out of window like a dog. She still talks about it.

  • Sean

    Well, if you can bank coin scalping on a day like this then more power to you… but I don’t see anything that says we get much below VWAP today, and I can’t imagine anything too negative happening on a holiday Friday, people are already checking out for the weekend and have their positions set and everyone wants to go into the weekend feeling good…. but I am interested in seeing how this “W” plays out (butterfly? Gartley? I dunno, I just watch that right “wing”), but that right trend line is still in the process of forming so I’m not expecting anything till next week…

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    S&P ’40’, tagging that upper envelope..

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p85404546723

    -Gerb

  • Ronebadger

    Watch VIX close today!

  • Billabong

    Mole, is there a tumbleweed song? 🙂
    Bummer … I was introducing a new position sizing / SL strategy based on CS’ discussion a few weeks ago (with a little Van Tharp thrown into the mix) and the market takes off with me short. Since I’m now neutral, I’ll have to wait for a better entry point long or short. And the new position sizing / SL strategy has potential. The first 50 trades on the previous version gave me a positive R that was low … probably too conservative. This version is less conservative and a little more volatile. I’ll post the results /strategy when I’ve completed the 100 trades.

  • Billabong

    /ES new high…

  • mugabe

    someone has to say it …all time high close on spy

  • mugabe

    oh,it’ss been said!

  • Ronebadger

    VIX Step ONE

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Hey i warned you guys to not snooze on this one. Think that I mentioned it several times – everyone got so lulled in by all the gyrations that they were incapable of taking entries at the end. The bus is pretty empty right now and it’s possible that it’ll take off like a mofo now. I’m currently positioned pretty and will probably add positions if it goes my way next week.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Viper fund – LMAO – well, everyone has their passion, whatever makes you happy. And there are worse vices than chasing red Vipers.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That’s what I’m counting on mate – I’m ready for those implants.

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/a/a1/Picard_as_Locutus.jpg

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    meh, wake me when the S&P 100 is broken. almooost there.

    http://s4.postimg.org/od9j05rxp/techno_oex.png

    techno viking is 14 years older? damn.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Seriously, they finally found him? Awesome!

  • phylum
  • phylum
  • mugabe

    4 – 1

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    there was a lawsuit involved. his name remains anonymous.

    http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2013-06/27/technoviking

  • Jake_38

    Can bucky overcome resistance.http://tos.mx/l9ZEsk

  • DollarChaser

    a little too much spare time over the weekend inspired me to do this. this is what your account would look like if you put $100 into crazy ivan 2014 and compounded after every trade. R=1% account value. first trade logged is the EUR/USD short on the 30th december, a 1R winner. last trade is the AUD/USD short on 23rd may, a .48R loser. 637 trades in total, all time high is after trade 422, a USD/JPY short on the 7th april, a 4.09R winner, bringing total account value to $170.44.

    i invite criticism/correction to this information as im doing this as an educational exercise. so if im getting this wrong, id like to know.

    heres to a prosperous weeks trading,
    cheers.

  • DollarChaser

    Ok one flaw I’m seeing is that I’ve just pulled this data straight off the CI results spreadsheet and logged them, and their profits, into the equation completely sequentially which is not necessarily the case as there can be multiple trades open at the same time, meaning the profit/loss of trade one will not affect the position size of trade two if trade two is opened before the close of trade one. Not sure how to factor that in just yet, lll check back in when I work it out.

  • captainboom

    I only have one vice… Lying about all the others 🙂

  • strider

    you may to consider that $100 won’t meet margin. Even $10K is unable to trade the gold and bond trades risking 1%

  • DollarChaser

    Yes the $100 figure is just for ease of calculation and example.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    futures gap up.
    I haven’t seen this kind of carnage nonsense since ..
    http://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0073/2452/products/AnthonyPetrieSharknado_large.jpg
    +1 for the Bullish percent indicator.

  • phylum

    Gold …

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Additionally … accurate position-sizing not possible with the fixed contract size markets (futures) … hence R values not accurate … what about the reality of the costs of doing business ?

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Additionally … accurate position-sizing not possible with the fixed contract size markets (futures) … hence R values not accurate … what about the reality of the costs of doing business ?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Your chart matches ours (published in the results page). The only criticism is that it doesn’t account for the new EC filter which has been turned on a few weeks ago and kept us COMPLETELY out of the deep spike lower about three weeks ago. Obviously we have been going sideways for a while now but had we turned on the EC filter earlier much of that would have been avoided. So we’ll have to watch the system as we go forward. Five months obviously isn’t much time.

  • Skynard

    Have shorted the /YM 655, good week all.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨

    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨

    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸

    ¨°º¤ B I T C H ! ¤º°¨

    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I would also like to make another comment – you are talking about a starting capital of $100 and that is simply ludicrous. I mean why pay $99 per month if you have no skin in the game? Unless you’re trading at least $10k you’re wasting your time. Plus you won’t be able to touch gold or bond futures unless you’re above $100k.

  • DollarChaser

    Yes i was wondering if the EC filter was represented in the CI results spreadsheet or not. i couldn’t see any indication. im interested to see how that affects things. im very interested in CI and heisenberg systems and cant wait to get into them. and re the $100 thing, i know $100 is ridiculous, i wouldn’t actually try to trade with $100, i just picked that number to make it easily comparable to percentage. i should had added a couple zeros and said 100k.

  • sburtt

    what does EC stand for?

  • sburtt

    one other VERY important thing your not keeping in consideration is execution cost (slippage + brokerage). For example lets assume 0.05R per trade, this is 31.85R cost you would need to deduct, still very good results but keep this in mind. 0.05R is more than reasonable consider on decent size ticket you would have at least 1 pips slippage per trade, that is 2 pips for a full in+out trade, that on an average initial stop loss of 40 pips is 0.05R. To be honest in the real world my assumption would be more like 0.1R per trade