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I Am Not Amused
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I Am Not Amused

by The MoleSeptember 18, 2018

Easy time and crappy time – a trivial concept in trading but it has held true over the ages. As traders we’ve usually seen plenty of both and we all instinctively know which one we’re in. If your Spidey sense fails you for some reason just pop by here and look at my posts or the comment stream. Is Mole putting up posts with cat themes? Is it crickets in the comment section? Guess what – it’s crappy market time.

Now if I was to define ‘crappy time’ technically then I’d point straight at either medium and/or short term volatility. And the absolute pinnacle of crappy time is when we got a mixture of both. Cue the equities, forex, futures, bonds markets – and pretty much everything else, crypto included.

We’ve got one more quarter ahead of us, but I think at this point the votes are in. And 2018 will most likely not be remembered fondly by the majority of traders. It’s been one big crap fest and everyone was already sick of it six months ago.

Now on the surface the current correction on the E-Mini looks just like another shake out attempt. But my trusted realized volatility (RV) signal has triggered three low volatility alerts in succession which usually occurs near medium term tops.

I’ve actually browsed around this morning and although I can’t give you a hint as to how these usually resolve I can confidently say that the tape usually becomes more complicated. Which of course means more RV.

And let’s remember that we have about three weeks of rough terrain ahead of us, statistically speaking. Come mid-October the bulls usually start getting their groove on.

Okay, now that we’re on topic, let’s review the damage of the past few sessions. I don’t think that I need to say much more than what I pinned on this chart. Suffice to say that I am not amused, especially given…

… a similar stop swipe on my gold campaign. At least on the E-Mini I got touched at break/even but this one is a 1R loss.

Could have been worse though, fortunately crude somehow survived the onslaught of stop runners and thus it’s still in the running and somewhat in the green.

Okay now before we move on just take a step back and look at the previous three charts. Do you see anything salient here? Any common characteristic? Exactly – short term RV galore and if that’s the new normal then we are in for a long winter, folks.

AUD/USD was an untimely exit for me when I started to see clear signs of a possible floor pattern. I actually missed that recent spike low which looked like a nice buying opportunity. If we get another one I’m most definitely game.

EUR/USD almost got taken out as well but my campaign survived by the skin of its teeth, i.e. a pip or two. I hate this pair and want it to die, which is why it most likely is getting coiled up for a massive run higher. That inverted H&S on the daily panel just is too juicy to pass up.

Now before we get to our new campaigns let’s talk about the Dollar. Clearly this chart speaks for itself and most of us can probably agree that a stab down to 94 is definitely possible. I think this is where the monkey business ends and we may see another run higher.

But if this one fails and the 100-day SMA goes to the woodshed then we may see a more more pronounced Dollar sell-off extending all the way down to 89. I think the odds of that are about 35% right now and I will continue to monitor the situation and report back if that changes.

Okay now, if you excuse me, it’s time to feed my intrepid subs:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    In all my years of participation, this is the cutest pic you’ve ever posted.

    A Rorschach test is in store. Quick, what do you see?
    😉

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/14a18a725dc0a66e0ffa897fb86f8de9a741d54f981f984450506247a1b99dc9.png

  • StockTalker

    This tape has smelled like poo all year, typical of a top forming IMO.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Sad to see my 2$ gainer gone. I am still in and up 0.30 rt now… keeping a watchful eye. No fun!

  • Edgy

    Maybe US indices starting to look like 2011 again? I rode some wild swings back then, and I think this site was still talking about Soylent Green and Yellow.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, never got gearing. I don’t expect much for the next couple of days but the bias is small short equities.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • mSquare

    Just a dog sprinting (or pooping)? Anything else to see?

  • BKXtoZERO

    I got to have some momentary fun though!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    well, at least I *knew* there was a potential for a bounce.
    ..and that RSI 50 is usually a b!tch (pun intended).

    next thousand trades.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b2d16c59caf5c23f3a10102701956c5eac2d4f1046a173dea48a843255c811d3.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    I’ve got some nearterm objectives for shortside today…just never know what can come out of it.

  • HD
  • HD

    quad witching week get’s an extra healthy turn around Tuesday

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    any chance for a last kiss good-bye?
    or is that extreme move, a tell of more to come?

  • HD

    pretty cheap short against yesterdays HOD. Hate to predict too much but we had 2 very high probability set ups yesterday. Both worked.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    FarceBook,
    (end of Large trend. pass me the water)
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FB&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p63870455028

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m becoming a Hottie With Body believer!!

  • HD

    Nuttin fancy but those are the ones that work. Have I mentioned the 9%’r??? will delete pic, not to be confused w what mole is doing.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fb83361be15364b6bcf3ae90acf7dd471bfecf6873a6845608369b8b8b15fa65.png

  • HD

    Maybe SPX will rally +17 IDK

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    nine percent R? no you have not.

  • BKXtoZERO

    someone pressed a button somewhere. HD has his 17 point theory and we are at 16.25 now. Added TVIX intraday only at 28.17

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/59fcfcb19afefa334c375e99542c11bf235dbaf1ba3d0a665be5423f709ea064.jpg

  • Mark Shinnick

    Watch out for slo knife phenomena as we persist pushing up against inverse vol from January/Feb. Sleeper bullish that can catch fire anytime.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I concur.
    High yield was red yesterday. looking like a top AAAAAaaaand, it’s gone.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HYG&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p26165655637

  • BKXtoZERO

    I want go work for the FED as a trader. They have it down to a McDonald’s level with a picture keyboard
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/012d1a4f16406098c6f7ac6f36c6f39ac13f30db3747fd80dd9097884d252cca.jpg

  • ridingwaves

    Wall of worry market is not a short playas dream……more like a nightmare…..
    3K still in play….for the playas…

  • ridingwaves

    Tesla stock tanks after report company faces criminal probe over Musk’s tweet

    PNF has it going to 205 target

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ROFL.

    After losing my luggage in Austin, I settled down to a McD’s in the rain, after an hour bumper-bumper drive. and found this. OMG. (not my day)

    https://americanlookout.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Automated-Cashiers.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi RW SPX rising wedge. Going to be interesting
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    hey julie, got t-boned on way to airport by a russian, thank the lord it was the 2nd car that I use for trips, airport parking areas are just dirt wrapped in concrete, not a good day…any picks to make it brighter

  • HD

    Fib (34) is 2 17’s,,,,

  • BKXtoZERO

    Better press the keep TSLA up button

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW I have a long MNKD from 1.57. Keep an eye CHEK. Sorry to hear about your accident.Your day will get better RW Can’t keep a good man down !
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    they are starting to introduce them in Auto Dealer Service drives, replacing the service advisor….yet really not replacing the as they still need to review the charges on what services they order….don’t know how its going to work, everyone is trying to avoid humans..

  • HD

    $VIX did the obligatory -1.00+ , I suspect they sold a lot of puts yesterday.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG RW As long as they don’t appear at Nevada brothels ! LOL ! Too Much !
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Machines doing Salesmanship ….friggin virtual everything these days.

  • ridingwaves

    35% turnover in service advisors is hurting thru-put for stores….some advisors at high line stores make over 100K….Kia, Nissan, Honda stores not so much

  • BKXtoZERO
  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…always liked the Jap makes service scene; never a ripoff pressure feeling.

  • ridingwaves

    the widow maker busting a move higher today, could this be the bull move?

    repeat 10 x and throw a pinto bean over your shoulder…..then repeat again….

    one day it will, maybe now since I’m not in it…

  • bankwalker

    any idea why the turnover is so high?

  • HD

    Need a twitter icon 🙂 and BTW do not open twitter and see why mario cart is trending….

  • Mark Shinnick

    Guilty conscience?

  • BKXtoZERO

    Wow… You did warn me not to look

  • BKXtoZERO

    Out TVIX 28.8 from 28.17 on day position. Holding small amount but things look kind of undeniably bullish. Dow making a run for the Canada border…. RUT looks like a bull flag set up, indexes look like that all want more. It was tantalizing yesterday to have been up and in the driver’s seat but it looks like they want more.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    daaaam, now I have to wait 6-8 hours to get home and find out.
    😉

  • bankwalker

    That actually makes sense. Thank you.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Yoda
  • HD

    whipsaw Wednesday on deck. Some levels, 2900, 2929, 2906, 2884. 2906 close would offer some clues. SPX

  • BKXtoZERO

    I like 2929 for another shot

  • HD

    spooky quiet for this kind of price action.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi HD In the money all three BAC (short) SLV and MNKD (long) Tight stops No position SPX
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick
  • HD

    awesome!

    Seahawks off to a tuff start. 22M$ QB needs some blockers

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    so basically it can go up or down

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey guys – I’ve been busier than a one legged man in an ass kicking contest today. Hope everyone is well!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Mmmmh – I gotta look at that one tomorrow.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Now you get it.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    What are these things for?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I can bring it back!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hubris will do that to ya 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Whatever it is – I hope it resolves soon. I don’t have another year like this in me.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I have been busier than a set of jumper cables at a Mexican wedding. Busier than a one armed bass player…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Back to work Everyone Have A Great Rest Of Day !
    JULIE

  • Edgy

    It’s your prerogative, I never took the time to understand it back then. I was still testing so many theories and ideas at the time, and my mind was all over the place.
    Had a good day today, though. I don’t know what changed between now and then, but I did start drinking beer…

  • ridingwaves

    hard work….
    busiest person in Dealership, see’s more customers in a month than a couple salesman in a year….

  • ridingwaves

    not for some, people want to program, make an app now, not go and sell service, deal with a service manager, people etc.

    What cracks me up about society is I see people waiting 10-15 minutes for a carmel mochhiatto thingy at starbucks all happy, not saying a thing but when they wait 15 minutes on the service drive, watch out, fire meet fuel

  • ridingwaves

    cars are so well built now only luxury makers, Toyota service writers on volume make great money. Technicians are in so much demand they are getting signing bonuses. Top line Audi tech if fast could make 150-200K a year fixing cars…

  • bankwalker

    Do you mean mechanic or are techs different? How would a young guy prepare for this trade to become so much in demand?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Busier than a
    a desert cobra at a mongoose convention.

    it’s all good.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    (kiosks. ditch the employee, make the customer do it)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    bye!

    dam, that wet cat still makes me giggle.

  • ridingwaves

    go to any auto school, dealers are hiring right out of those schools, then let factory certification process move them from C level to master tech, 8-10 hours a day, driveability and diagnosis skills drive salary up. great pay, hours and benefits, high need within all markets in US….perks, trips etc for the taking….I would do it in heartbeat…economy goes down, job security…

    I know a local Audi dealer who is getting purged by Tesla for technicians, they throw out stock options etc and big money. Probably best time ever to be an auto tech…

  • ridingwaves

    yep, in the service drive, guess what they are finding out?

    wait for it

    people upsell themselves

  • BKXtoZERO

    Very few care for fake boobs I guess.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I started keeping a trading log as Van Tharp suggests. How you feel about your trade….. Here is my first entry: https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/48363465abd46ccc7708cbb53b3ae266d9f33ee02cb52a7e83b3b224f3361508.jpg

  • Dyellowflash

    Shorted the mkt SnP 2911.80